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Championship Scenarios - Brazil Edition
Topic Started: Nov 18 2012, 08:40 PM (251 Views)
Lord Tau
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Admin
So, with the US Grand Prix now over, here are the championship scenarios for the final race of the season.

Vettel will win the championship in Interlagos if:

  • He finishes in the top 4, regardless
  • He finishes 5th, 6th or 7th AND Alonso finishes 2nd or lower
  • He finishes 8th or 9th AND Alonso finishes 3rd or lower.
  • He finishes 10th or lower AND Alonso finishes 4th or lower.

Alonso will win the title in Interlagos if:

  • He wins AND Vettel finishes 5th or lower
  • He finishes 2nd AND Vettel finishes 8th or lower
  • He finishes 3rd AND Vettel finishes 10th or lower

My Monte Carlo probability script therefore calculates a 83.4% chance of Vettel winning the title and a 16.6% (roughly 1 in 6) chance of Alonso winning the title.
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John
Team Boss
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On recent form Alonso is unlikly to win IMO (he has never won ain Brazil) but anythings can happen...

It really has turned out to be an amazing 20 race season.
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Lord Tau
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Naturally, one thing these scenarios don't take into account is the event of half-points being awarded. Should that occur, Vettel wins the title, regardless.

I hope that doesn't happen, but you never know.
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Lex
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Driver
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Perhaps Vettel's amazing luck will run out...

Red Bull change the engine and gearbox and start from the pitlane only for the alternator, KERS and DRS to fail before lap 4. Vettel's tears cloud his visor and Horner's cries of anguish prevent any further radio transmissions....

<peek>
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TheCompleteGuitarist
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Lex,Nov 18 2012
09:52 PM
Perhaps Vettel's amazing luck will run out...

Red Bull change the engine and gearbox and start from the pitlane only for the alternator, KERS and DRS to fail before lap 4. Vettel's tears cloud his visor and Horner's cries of anguish prevent any further radio transmissions....

<peek>

<roflmao> best race of the season followed by best prediction for the next race.
<bow>
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Rob
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Lex,Nov 18 2012
04:52 PM
Perhaps Vettel's amazing luck will run out...

Red Bull change the engine and gearbox and start from the pitlane only for the alternator, KERS and DRS to fail before lap 4. Vettel's tears cloud his visor and Horner's cries of anguish prevent any further radio transmissions....

<peek>

Or just another alternator failure.
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P1
Chief Engineer
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Alonso under less pressure than Vettel? <think>

Alonso:
Quote:
 
We need to try to be on the podium and wait for the result of Red Bull because it is not in our hands.  We have nothing to lose.  We can only win, and we will try to do our best.

In F1 there is always pressure.  Definitely we have less than on some occasions and less than if we were leading the championship.  We arrive in second position after five or six qualifying sessions dominated by Red Bull when we were around seventh or eighth, so recovering 13 points looks like a very difficult achievement.

If everything is normal we will maybe be seventh on the grid and if something happens we can win the championship.  As it is not in our hands the pressure is much less.

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John
Team Boss
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It's all a bit of b/s really... talk is cheap and used as much to play mind games.

Vettel may be leading the championship going into the last race but Alonso is still very much in with a chance of winning and and given the near misses Ferrari have had twice under Alonso's stewardship it would be niave to suggest he has less pressure on him...

Vettel is already a reigning double world champion, so to come second would still be a massive achievement... and at 25 he has plenty of time to get another championship if he fails this weekend.

Alonso/Ferrari on the other hand has already lost out 3 times now on a WCC title and Alonso has been chasing another WDC title for 6 years now so he has plenty of pressure on him... even if he might say publically he hasn't.
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