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| Championship Scenarios | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Nov 4 2012, 03:14 PM (856 Views) | |
| ELUSIVEJIM | Nov 8 2012, 12:27 PM Post #16 |
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| ELUSIVEJIM | Nov 8 2012, 12:29 PM Post #17 |
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I can honestly see the Ferrari being strong at Austin. The long straight and Ferrari's fast straight line speed could make the difference. The Ferrari is very good on its tyres but this does not help them in qualifying which is key. Think Austin could be the race of the year. You never know Webber might just take Vettel out for old time sake
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| Rob | Nov 8 2012, 01:55 PM Post #18 |
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I'm not that fussy. |
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| John | Nov 8 2012, 01:58 PM Post #19 |
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Team Boss
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Alonso will finish ahead of Vettel in Austin and a new tripple WDc will be declared at the last race. |
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| Norbert | Nov 8 2012, 04:42 PM Post #20 |
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After he clipped a few cars during the first few laps, it appeared that half the field were crashing into each other trying to get out the way.....
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| Rob | Nov 10 2012, 10:16 PM Post #21 |
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Webber was trying to clear out an easy path. |
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| P1 | Nov 14 2012, 06:58 PM Post #22 |
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Chief Engineer
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Pure statistics based on the 18 previous race results this year gives us: Vettel wins and Alonso finishes 5th or lower: Happened at 2 races, so chance is 2/18 = 11% Vettel finishes 2nd and Alonso 9th or lower: Happened once this year, so chance is 1/18 = 6% Vettel finishes 3rd and Alonso does not score: Did not happen yet this year, so chance is zero. So based on previous results this year, total chance for Vettel to win the WDC this weekend in Austin is approx. 17% ! Unfortunately for Alonso, the remaining 83% is not equal to his chance to win the WDC...
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| TheCompleteGuitarist | Nov 14 2012, 07:25 PM Post #23 |
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Driver
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Now is a good time for another driver to pick up another win. I suspect Hamilton followed closely by Button stand the best chance, but there are a few interesting outsiders looking interesting, the Lotuses and possibly a suaber or FI if luck falls kindly, but then they'd need the luck of Saint Sebastian, so who knows. |
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| John | Nov 14 2012, 08:18 PM Post #24 |
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Team Boss
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I'd settle for a Schumacher win...
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| Lord Tau | Nov 14 2012, 09:12 PM Post #25 |
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I've taken that one step further. Something I had lying around from a while back. Assuming that the finishing positions of all drivers are normally distributed, I obtained probabilities of finishing in certain positions using a Monte Carlo analysis. I then applied these probabilities and calculated the following (rounding errors may appear): Vettel wins and Alonso finishes 5th or lower: Vettel finishing in 1st = 20.7% chance Alonso finishing in 5th or lower = 32.2% chance Thus, this situation has a 6.7% chance of occurring. Vettel finishes 2nd and Alonso 9th or lower: Vettel finishing in 2nd = 12.3% chance Alonso finishing 9th or lower = 3.7% chance Thus, this situation has a 0.5% chance of occurring. Vettel finishes 3rd and Alonso does not score: Vettel finishing in 3rd = 9.3% chance Alonso not scoring = 0.9% chance Thus, this situation has a 0.1% chance of occurring Therefore, the total probability that Vettel will win the championship in Austin is about 7.2%. Incidentally, I extended the Monte Carlo analysis to cover Brazil as well, and that ended up with almost exactly a 1 in 3 chance (33.3%) of Alonso winning the WDC and therefore Vettel a 2 in 3 (66.7%) chance of winning the WDC (either in Austin or in Interlagos). I really need a girlfriend! |
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| Rob | Nov 14 2012, 10:15 PM Post #26 |
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Fantastic post script. Great analysis. Good to know Alonso has a 1/3 chance to win.
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| Norbert | Nov 15 2012, 11:33 AM Post #27 |
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What if Mr First Lap Idiot causes a huge pileup or some other trouble? Isn't there a healthy statistic suggesting that as Grosjean must have taken just about everyone out of the race at least once this season, that as he hasn't hit Vettel yet with two races to go, there's about an 85% chance of success?
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| Norbert | Nov 15 2012, 11:39 AM Post #28 |
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Realistically, with the Red Bull being suspiciously racy, Alonso's best chance is to win the race this weekend, and preferably the last race too. Then it doesn't matter where the safety car places Vettel. However, the Ferrari simply doesn't seem to have the pace under normal circumstances, never mind when Bernd Maylander gets his shiny toy out for a few laps while the others decide to fall over each other for no apparent reason. Quite simply, Alonso needs to hope that Vettel's good luck charm gets left behind, and that he has a DNF or poor finish. All joking aside, the Red Bull is faster than the Ferrari, and even Alonso's ability to drive a wheelie bin of a car faster than anyone else could drive it cannot bridge the gap in raw unless something goes badly wrong for the blue and silver team. Being taken out at Spa may well have been the factor that has cost Alonso the title, although of course you never know where he might or might not have finished in that race. |
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| TheCompleteGuitarist | Nov 15 2012, 02:36 PM Post #29 |
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Driver
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Alonso was taken out of two races I believe so that could have evened the points between him and Vettel at least |
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| Rob | Nov 15 2012, 03:30 PM Post #30 |
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It's Vettel's turn to get punted.
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