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Championship Scenarios
Topic Started: Nov 4 2012, 03:14 PM (856 Views)
ELUSIVEJIM
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Norbert,Nov 4 2012
04:07 PM
Red bull cheat as usual. Doesn't matter if they get caught as there'll be a useful safety car, and if not, they can always get Webbo to have yet another prang. He had to try three times before he succeeded today.. lol

<roflmao> <roflmao>
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ELUSIVEJIM
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I can honestly see the Ferrari being strong at Austin.

The long straight and Ferrari's fast straight line speed could make the difference.

The Ferrari is very good on its tyres but this does not help them in qualifying which is key.

Think Austin could be the race of the year.

You never know Webber might just take Vettel out for old time sake <roflmao>

<peek>
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Rob
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John,Nov 7 2012
03:10 PM
Don't you mean Maldonado <yikes>

I'm not that fussy.
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John
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Alonso will finish ahead of Vettel in Austin and a new tripple WDc will be declared at the last race.
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Norbert
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After he clipped a few cars during the first few laps, it appeared that half the field were crashing into each other trying to get out the way.....

<roflmao>
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Rob
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Webber was trying to clear out an easy path.
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P1
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Lord Tau,Nov 4 2012
05:14 PM
So, Vettel has the chance to clinch the championship at Austin. Here's how:

  • Vettel wins at Alonso finishes 5th or lower
  • Vettel finishes 2nd and Alonso 9th or lower
  • Vettel finishes 3rd and Alonso does not score

Pure statistics based on the 18 previous race results this year gives us:

Vettel wins and Alonso finishes 5th or lower:
Happened at 2 races, so chance is 2/18 = 11%

Vettel finishes 2nd and Alonso 9th or lower:
Happened once this year, so chance is 1/18 = 6%

Vettel finishes 3rd and Alonso does not score:
Did not happen yet this year, so chance is zero.

So based on previous results this year, total chance for Vettel to win the WDC this weekend in Austin is approx. 17% !

Unfortunately for Alonso, the remaining 83% is not equal to his chance to win the WDC... <devil>
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TheCompleteGuitarist
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Now is a good time for another driver to pick up another win. I suspect Hamilton followed closely by Button stand the best chance, but there are a few interesting outsiders looking interesting, the Lotuses and possibly a suaber or FI if luck falls kindly, but then they'd need the luck of Saint Sebastian, so who knows.
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John
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I'd settle for a Schumacher win... <roflmao>
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Lord Tau
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P1,Nov 14 2012
06:58 PM
Lord Tau,Nov 4 2012
05:14 PM
So, Vettel has the chance to clinch the championship at Austin. Here's how:



  • Vettel wins at Alonso finishes 5th or lower


  • Vettel finishes 2nd and Alonso 9th or lower


  • Vettel finishes 3rd and Alonso does not score



Pure statistics based on the 18 previous race results this year gives us:

Vettel wins and Alonso finishes 5th or lower:
Happened at 2 races, so chance is 2/18 = 11%

Vettel finishes 2nd and Alonso 9th or lower:
Happened once this year, so chance is 1/18 = 6%

Vettel finishes 3rd and Alonso does not score:
Did not happen yet this year, so chance is zero.

So based on previous results this year, total chance for Vettel to win the WDC this weekend in Austin is approx. 17% !

Unfortunately for Alonso, the remaining 83% is not equal to his chance to win the WDC... <devil>

I've taken that one step further. Something I had lying around from a while back.

Assuming that the finishing positions of all drivers are normally distributed, I obtained probabilities of finishing in certain positions using a Monte Carlo analysis. I then applied these probabilities and calculated the following (rounding errors may appear):

Vettel wins and Alonso finishes 5th or lower:
Vettel finishing in 1st = 20.7% chance
Alonso finishing in 5th or lower = 32.2% chance
Thus, this situation has a 6.7% chance of occurring.

Vettel finishes 2nd and Alonso 9th or lower:
Vettel finishing in 2nd = 12.3% chance
Alonso finishing 9th or lower = 3.7% chance
Thus, this situation has a 0.5% chance of occurring.

Vettel finishes 3rd and Alonso does not score:
Vettel finishing in 3rd = 9.3% chance
Alonso not scoring = 0.9% chance
Thus, this situation has a 0.1% chance of occurring

Therefore, the total probability that Vettel will win the championship in Austin is about 7.2%.


Incidentally, I extended the Monte Carlo analysis to cover Brazil as well, and that ended up with almost exactly a 1 in 3 chance (33.3%) of Alonso winning the WDC and therefore Vettel a 2 in 3 (66.7%) chance of winning the WDC (either in Austin or in Interlagos).










I really need a girlfriend!
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Rob
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Fantastic post script.

Great analysis. Good to know Alonso has a 1/3 chance to win. <please>
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Norbert
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What if Mr First Lap Idiot causes a huge pileup or some other trouble? Isn't there a healthy statistic suggesting that as Grosjean must have taken just about everyone out of the race at least once this season, that as he hasn't hit Vettel yet with two races to go, there's about an 85% chance of success?

<roflmao>
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Norbert
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Realistically, with the Red Bull being suspiciously racy, Alonso's best chance is to win the race this weekend, and preferably the last race too. Then it doesn't matter where the safety car places Vettel. However, the Ferrari simply doesn't seem to have the pace under normal circumstances, never mind when Bernd Maylander gets his shiny toy out for a few laps while the others decide to fall over each other for no apparent reason.

Quite simply, Alonso needs to hope that Vettel's good luck charm gets left behind, and that he has a DNF or poor finish. All joking aside, the Red Bull is faster than the Ferrari, and even Alonso's ability to drive a wheelie bin of a car faster than anyone else could drive it cannot bridge the gap in raw unless something goes badly wrong for the blue and silver team. Being taken out at Spa may well have been the factor that has cost Alonso the title, although of course you never know where he might or might not have finished in that race.
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TheCompleteGuitarist
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Alonso was taken out of two races I believe so that could have evened the points between him and Vettel at least
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Rob
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It's Vettel's turn to get punted. <devil>
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