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What are the odds against Vettel winning; The title.
Topic Started: May 31 2011, 12:02 PM (323 Views)
TheCompleteGuitarist
Driver
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Must be pretty poor.

uuuunnnnlllleeeessss the FIA intervene with some, "You are breaking the rules directive" to slow them down I cannot see him not winning.

Well you say, Button won the 6 of the first 7 races of the season in his title winning season and he didn't have it easy all the way. Well, I respond. Not only did Brawn GP not have trillions of dollars and a succesful drinks company parent, they pretty much stopped development of the car at this point in the season and Button himself didn't win again.

Can you really see that happening at RBR?

Somehow, they've even managed to sideline the home grown competition (webber), who is not only not winning races, is not evening supporting Vettel's crusade.

Watch Webber come good once he cannot mathematically win the title. OK just a little wind up there. But it is a little suspicious that Mark cannot put a weekend together this year when he actually led the champship race for a lot of last year.

So in my opinion the title is wrapped up. I really cannot see anyone catching RBR. Alonso has suggested as much himself, saying firstly the teams have to find 1 second per lap in qualification, then Vettel has to stop winning, maybe even not finish or score in some races. Can we see that happening? I don't think so.

So, how many races left? 12? I can imagine another 10 or so fingers at least. 1 per race and 1 for the title. Maybe we'll get a doubly whammy of one finger on each hand for the title. Oh joy, I am looking forward to that.

This site will become a very desolate place.

<tumbleweed>

Please, convince me I am wrong.
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Brave_Lee_Flea
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Also Brawn didn't have Newey.

Lewis will be sure to throw some more points away this season, he's so emotionally immature that he just can't help himself. He will however take points from Jenson and Alonso.

Could Alonso manage to come good as he did last year only even more spectacularly... that's not going to happen. Last year Alonso believed in Ferrari's ability to turn it round, presumably with good reason.

This year he doesn't.

Presumably also with good reason.

So, really, unless Vettel has a DNF or two I don't think anybody will catch him.

But for me that doesn't matter. I love to watch a team or an individual astride their sport like a colossus. Barcelona's spanking on Man Utd was predictable but it was fabulous. Similarly Federer, Nadal and Rossi. Not a dull moment there for me.

Red Bull and Vettel are the F1 team of the moment. We should appreciate it and enjoy it.

The challenge is for the other teams to catch them. And, to paraphrase Slur Alex, what an exciting challenge.
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PiquetFan
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The odds against Seb winning the WDC from here are not good. However, we have seen, in the last race, that the package of him and the RBR is not invincible. McLaren looked very strong on Sunday - Jenson should have won the race and was probably a tyre choice/safety car away from doing so. Montreal should be good for McLaren as well.

Hopefully there is more to come in the future from both Ferrari and McLaren in terms of development.

While you are correct to say that he has a massive qualifying advantage right now, if Alonso can put himself on the front or second rows then he could, on current form, make it extremely difficult for Seb to make his usual gap in the opening laps by getting ahead of him. This will give Alonso and both McLarens the opportunity to mix it with him.

I won't be conceding just yet ;)
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Brave_Lee_Flea
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PiquetFan,May 31 2011
01:27 PM
I won't be conceding just yet  ;)

I guess it depends on who you cheer for ..... I conceded that it might not be Williams' year after the second race.
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PiquetFan
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Brave_Lee_Flea,May 31 2011
02:34 PM
PiquetFan,May 31 2011
01:27 PM
I won't be conceding just yet  ;)

I guess it depends on who you cheer for ..... I conceded that it might not be Williams' year after the second race.

Massa's probably my favourite driver at the moment, so I see your point <LOL>
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Brave_Lee_Flea
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PiquetFan,May 31 2011
01:40 PM
Brave_Lee_Flea,May 31 2011
02:34 PM
PiquetFan,May 31 2011
01:27 PM
I won't be conceding just yet  ;)

I guess it depends on who you cheer for ..... I conceded that it might not be Williams' year after the second race.

Massa's probably my favourite driver at the moment, so I see your point <LOL>

Hmmm ... I think Massa is driving for his F1 career from this point on .... 24 points to his teammate's 69 .... less points than Renault's "reserve" driver ... surely he won't get a new contract at 'rari next season?

*edit; just checked and seen that he's contracted until the end of next season. Is Massa to be to Alonso what Rubens was to Schumi?
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spottygiraffe
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Brave_Lee_Flea,May 31 2011
12:24 PM
So, really, unless Vettel has a DNF or two I don't think anybody will catch him.


And there have been very few DNFs due to reliability problems this year. It was almost a surprise to see Schumi pulling up at the weekend. So unless Seb starts to make mistakes, which is looking unlikely, particularly if he keeps leading from the front, then I think he's almost got it in the bag. Yawn. Thank goodness there is still a lot of good racing to be had between the rest of them.
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Norbert
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Red Bull's race pace seems only a little faster, if any, than McLaren. Also, the teams are shortly to lose the ability to blow the diffusers under braking by fiddling with the ignition to dump unburned fuel into the exhaust with the throttle shut, which is an area Red Bull seem to have mastered better than anyone else. So that may be the "you're not allowed to be so fast rule" coming in.

Red Bull are not infallible as their pitstop issues proved. However, they do have very good qualifying pace and good race pace compared to everyone. Also, I'm pretty sure that no-one who has won at least four of the first five races has failed to win the title....
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Rob
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The WDC is just about sewn up effectively if not mathematically. Newy is pretty sharp, and I'm guessing RBR will be able to recover from any diffuser mods w/in a few races. Vettel could DNF twice and still keep the WDC lead, they have some wiggle room.
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John
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Let’s look at this a bit... it is a 19 race season with 13 still to go and two poor RBR circuits coming up (Montreal and Monza).

I would not say Vettel has it in the bag just yet, he may have won in Monaco but the McLaren’s are clearly the equal of the RBR now.

If anything, Vettels best hope for the WDC is both the McLaren’s taking points off each other and even Alonso taking a win or two.

I hope Vettel does win it but I do not expect him to be as dominant as he has been.
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