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Who will be world champion 2009?; 7 races to go, who is your money on?
Topic Started: Jul 30 2009, 12:17 PM (660 Views)
Bear
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3 races ago the season was all but over with JB and Brawn having such a lead.

Then Bernie took Ross round the back of his motorhome and made him an offer he couldn't refuse.

Ross takes the foot off the pedal for a while to give the WDC and WCC some meat to keep the season going financially for all the teams.

Expect Brawn will suddenly re-find their form when they need to. Like JB said, it isn't that the others have improved *that* much - it's that the Brawn isn't handling so well (the Brawn updates should not affect handling so much).

So we'll have a few more close races and then Bernie will stop treading on Ross' throat, and Ross will put all the bolts back on JB's car, and Brawn will take both championships.

Or is the Brawn loss of form just a coincidence?

:s


<peek>
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John
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Bear,Jul 31 2009
12:11 PM
Or is the Brawn loss of form just a coincidence?

Once the F1 circus gets back to the European rounds the development work and upgrades kick in so it is not entirely surprising that the pack has closed down... getting the car right was a major boost for Brawn, but Ferrari and McLaren where always going to be hard to keep down...

There maybe no more wins for Brawn GP this season (who knows) but if they can score useful points they are still in with a chance. <thumbsup>
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Craze_b0i
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I'm counting on Brawn to rediscover some form they have been to good to just go shit overnight. Also Mclaren may take a couple of wins away from Red Bull.

I remember 2005, Renault had the early rounds sewn up but then Mclaren overtook them on pace and dominated the mid-season. But Renault hung in there just behind them, and eventually cleaned up with both titles.
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Red Andy
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There are some rumours that Brawn's upgrades, post-Turkey, have taken the car in the wrong direction and that by reverting to Istanbul spec they could make up some lost ground on Red Bull. I think that would just drop them further behind, however.

Also, Hungary was very unlikely to have been a "high-downforce, slow-speed blip" because those are exactly the kind of circuit (Monaco) that Brawn dominated on before. Their decline is very real and must be worrying for Ross and the team. He's excellent at what he does, but he can't work miracles.
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Alien_SAP_Fiend
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Craze_b0i,Jul 31 2009
12:23 PM
I remember 2005, Renault had the early rounds sewn up but then Mclaren overtook them on pace and dominated the mid-season. But Renault hung in there just behind them, and eventually cleaned up with both titles.

Mercedes let Mclaren down. Big time.
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John
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Lex,Jul 30 2009
11:38 PM
'bubi-schumi' is what Vettel is called here in Germanyland (didn't mean Ralf)

Vettel I suspect, along with all the drivers who never got to race against Schumacher, will relish the next race regardless... apart from the possibility that he could take points off Vettel but had Massa been fit to race he would be just as much a threat. so as far a Vettel is concerned it is no different, he will go out to win as always
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TheCompleteGuitarist
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Red Andy,Jul 31 2009
01:03 PM
There are some rumours that Brawn's upgrades, post-Turkey, have taken the car in the wrong direction and that by reverting to Istanbul spec they could make up some lost ground on Red Bull. I think that would just drop them further behind, however.

Also, Hungary was very unlikely to have been a "high-downforce, slow-speed blip" because those are exactly the kind of circuit (Monaco) that Brawn dominated on before. Their decline is very real and must be worrying for Ross and the team. He's excellent at what he does, but he can't work miracles.

Ultimately it all comes down to money.

Brawn raced ahead because it focused all it's efforts and money on the 09 car. Quite probably Mclaren have already spent in excess of what it cost Brawn to take the first half of the year by storm.

So any criticism laid at Honda/Brawn for their focus on this year and the way it spent it's money should now also be directed elsewhere. OK guess that's just me being bitter lol.

But it's still down to money. RBR and Mclaren definitely fall into that category whereas I suspect it's not true for Williams who have been gracefully making steps throughout the season despite not capitalizing on their initial advantage.
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Craze_b0i
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I had expected Williams to grab a haul of points in the early rounds with their special diffusers then get caught by the bigger teams and fall away. But the opposite has happened.

So really Williams have had an odd season. But I am pleased that they are now going well, shame for them that they will lose Rosberg.
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Brave_Lee_Flea
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Craze_b0i,Jul 31 2009
11:13 PM
.... shame for them that they will lose Rosberg.

is that speculation or is that news I have missed?

Just at the moment I don't think there are very many seats available in cars that are faster than the Williams and there are good drivers such as Kubica on the market now competing for what seats there are.
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Red Andy
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The main rumour was Rosberg to BMW. Now that they are out of F1, my guess is that he will stay with Williams. Certainly there are few better places he could be at the moment, he has probably earned the respect of the team with his performances this season. A season with the highly-rated Hulkenburg as a teammate could bolster his reputation if he performs well.

For all Rosberg's bluster about "leaving Williams" if they failed to deliver with a winning car, he will have realised that "potential" alone is insufficient to give him a top-line drive. Better to achieve semi-decent things with Williams than squander his apparent ability with a team that delivers little or - in the case of McLaren - would prevent him from showing his best.
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Brave_Lee_Flea
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Red Andy,Aug 1 2009
12:54 AM
The main rumour was Rosberg to BMW. Now that they are out of F1, my guess is that he will stay with Williams. Certainly there are few better places he could be at the moment, he has probably earned the respect of the team with his performances this season. A season with the highly-rated Hulkenburg as a teammate could bolster his reputation if he performs well.

For all Rosberg's bluster about "leaving Williams" if they failed to deliver with a winning car, he will have realised that "potential" alone is insufficient to give him a top-line drive. Better to achieve semi-decent things with Williams than squander his apparent ability with a team that delivers little or - in the case of McLaren - would prevent him from showing his best.

I wonder if Williams will now seek to replace Kazuki.

This is now his second season with the team and the numbers tell the tale:

Williams 25.5 points
Rosberg 25.5 points
Nakajima 0 points

If Williams had a second driver of Rosberg's calibre they could have potentially double the points they have now. That's probably worth millions of pounds in prize monies come the end of the season.

Heidfeld is available next season and has worked with the team before, Kubica will be looking for a drive too and neither is likely to want to join one of the new teams.

It would be good too for Rosberg to have somebody in the second seat that could push him or at the very least somebody who he could earn respect in the pit lane for beating.

I'm sure none of the above will be lost on Frank and Patrick, yet they have been strangely quiet about Nakajima's performances.

I hope Williams don't bring in another rookie next season, even a highly rated one. It would be better for the team to farm out such a driver to one of the new teams and let him blood himself there, surely?
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Red Andy
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Williams have to have Nakajima (or Kamui Kobayashi) as part of the Toyota deal. Getting rid of him won't be too easy. As far as sending rookies to other teams to get themselves established in F1, that's what Williams are being used for by Toyota.
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Brave_Lee_Flea
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Red Andy,Aug 1 2009
08:54 AM
Williams have to have Nakajima (or Kamui Kobayashi) as part of the Toyota deal. Getting rid of him won't be too easy. As far as sending rookies to other teams to get themselves established in F1, that's what Williams are being used for by Toyota.

Oooh but that stings.....

you might be right but surely there comes a point where Williams can say "ok, we have given him a chance but - he's rubbish" ?

I can't see Frank not retaining that much power over his driver selection policy.
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Norbert
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Petra Lead,Aug 1 2009
11:26 AM
Red Andy,Aug 1 2009
08:54 AM
Williams have to have Nakajima (or Kamui Kobayashi) as part of the Toyota deal. Getting rid of him won't be too easy. As far as sending rookies to other teams to get themselves established in F1, that's what Williams are being used for by Toyota.

Oooh but that stings.....

you might be right but surely there comes a point where Williams can say "ok, we have given him a chance but - he's rubbish" ?

I can't see Frank not retaining that much power over his driver selection policy.

Really? The last time he exercised his muscle on a Japanese engine supplier, he lost his supply of Honda turbo engines for 1988. Can you remember which engine won 15/16 that year? Honda went to McLaren, and Nakajima stayed with Lotus, who also retained the engine as Nakajima was part of the deal. McLaren didn't need to take a Japanese as they had Senna and Prost, and even Honda wouldn't be daft enough to try and influence that one! Remind me, how did Tyrell get the Honda engines in 1991? By giving a seat to Nakajima in 1990 when Lotus went to Lamborghini and employed Derek Warwick and Martin Donnelly.

Most engine suppliers will try and get 'their' drivers seats, and Frank knows which side his bread is buttered.....
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Brave_Lee_Flea
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Norbert,Aug 1 2009
10:59 AM

Really? The last time he exercised his muscle on a Japanese engine supplier, he lost his supply of Honda turbo engines for 1988. Can you remember which engine won 15/16 that year? Honda went to McLaren, and Nakajima stayed with Lotus, who also retained the engine as Nakajima was part of the deal. McLaren didn't need to take a Japanese as they had Senna and Prost, and even Honda wouldn't be daft enough to try and influence that one! Remind me, how did Tyrell get the Honda engines in 1991? By giving a seat to Nakajima in 1990 when Lotus went to Lamborghini and employed Derek Warwick and Martin Donnelly.

Most engine suppliers will try and get 'their' drivers seats, and Frank knows which side his bread is buttered.....

Ok, all true ... but ... he *did* refuse them and after a year or two landed a very nice supply of Renault engines ... he also refused to let BMW "interfere" with his operations ... which suggests that Frank didn't "learn his lessons" with regard to Honda.

Not to mention that there is a strong argument that says his bread is not well buttered with Nakajima whose lack of results are costing Williams not only prize monies but potential sponsorship too. There surely must come a time when even Toyota can accept that Nakajima is not performing well enough to insist that Frank retains him.

The rules about engine manufacturers only being allowed to supply two teams seem to have been relaxed (or ignored) and Cosworth will be coming back into the picture next season.

I think there will be more options available to Frank than there were at the time he took the Toyota engine deal and so it will be interesting to see if Frank retains Nakajima next season.

I strongly suspect (and very much hope) that he won't.
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