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Gambler's Anonymous; What the odds say....
Topic Started: Mar 2 2007, 08:53 PM (166 Views)
theghostofnuvolari
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... knowing that betting odds are every bit as reliable as winter testing, this is what the punters think according to oddschecker...

Kimi Raikkonen (Fer) 15/8
Fernando Alonso (McL) 12/5
Felippe Massa (Fer) 4/1
Jenson Button (Hon) 25/1
Heikki Kovalainen (Ren) 25/1
Giancarlo Fisichella (Ren) 28/1
Lewis Hamilton 29/1
Robert Kubica (BMW) 40/1
Nick Heidfeld (BMW) 66/1
Rubens Barrichello (Hon) 80/1
Jarno Trulli (Toy) 100/1
Ralf Schumacher (Toy) 100/1
David Coulthard (RBR) 150/1
Nico Rosberg (Wil) 150/1
Mark Webber 150/1
Alex Wurz (Wil) 200/1
Christian Albers (Spyk) 500/1
Anthony Davidson (Sup) 500/1
Vitantonio Liuzzi (Toro) 500/1
Takuma Sato (Sup) 500/1
Scott Speed (Toro) 500/1
Adrian Sutil (Spyk) 500/1

and

Ferrari 8/11
McLaren 5/2
Renault 8/1
Honda 16/1
BMW Sauber 28/1
Toyota 66/1
Red Bull 124/1
Williams 124/1
Toro Rosso 300/1
Spyker 750/1
Super Aguri 1500/1

Only points of note, Ferrari are clear favourites, Rubens is a long shot, and strangely Heikki stands more chance than Fisi and Hami, shurely shome mishtake...
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Rob
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theghostofnuvolari,Mar 2 2007
02:53 PM
and strangely Heikki stands more chance than Fisi and Hami, shurely shome mishtake...

Hekki has a full season as an F1 tester, so not real strange IMO. I see why he has a better chance than Fisi, but being over Hamilton really is going to be based more on how good their respective cars are.
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theghostofnuvolari
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fair do's, fisi has been totally rejected... seems reasonable.

but do people really think the renault is better than the mclaren ? not according to the teams odds... !

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The Saint
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Button seems to be the best of the rest.

Massa must be wondering how many dogs turds he stood in to get a Ferrari seat.
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theghostofnuvolari
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Yup, having the boss's son as your manager seems to be a great, if parasitically nepotistic way to go.
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Rob
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fair do's, fisi has been totally rejected... seems reasonable.

but do people really think the renault is better than the mclaren ? not according to the teams odds... !

I'm not so sure. Renault had a really good car the last 2 years, but they also lost the best racer currently in F1. It is bound to have some negative effects.


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Massa must be wondering how many dogs turds he stood in to get a Ferrari seat.

<blink> <blink> <blink>
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theghostofnuvolari
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Rob,Mar 2 2007
09:17 PM
I'm not so sure. Renault had a really good car the last 2 years, but they also lost the best racer currently in F1. It is bound to have some negative effects.

ah yes, the alonso affect. you might be right.

sporting index spread betting has hami a whisker stronger than heikki, but i'm with you... heikki's better experience vs hami's testing times. you'd probably have to give it to the guy with the mileage.
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Monty
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The bookies only base it on last years performances so the odds on for example Williams of beating honda should be a hell of alot shorter. I think Raikkonen and Alonso should be identical behind that i dont see anyone else having a hope only Massa maybe.
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theghostofnuvolari
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DavidColthard202,Mar 2 2007
11:05 PM
The bookies only base it on last years performances so the odds on for example Williams of beating honda should be a hell of alot shorter. I think Raikkonen and Alonso should be identical behind that i dont see anyone else having a hope only Massa maybe.

hmmm, i think bookies calculate the odds on what'll make them the most money. now maybe the gamblers are betting based on last year's results, but then the bookies just react to that level of demand. someone may know the science behind it better...
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