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Prepper?
Topic Started: Apr 28 2018, 04:06 AM (132 Views)
George K
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Finally
https://medium.com/@bjcampbell/the-surprisingly-solid-mathematical-case-of-the-tin-foil-hat-gun-prepper-15fce7d10437
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Stepping through this, the average year for colony establishment is 1678, which is 340 years ago. Two qualifying events in 340 years is a 0.5882% annual chance of nationwide violent revolution against the ruling government. Do the same math as we did above with the floodplains, in precisely the same way, and we see a 37% chance that any American of average life expectancy will experience at least one nationwide violent revolution.
This is a bigger chance than your floodplain-bound home getting flooded out during your mortgage.
I know nothing of statistics and probability. I wonder how whacko this analysis is.
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Mikhailoh
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
Pretty whacko. It takes into account a primarily monarchical colony/empire system that no longer exists and tries to apply it to today.
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Axtremus
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HOLY CARP!!!
Life expectancy in the USA is 75 years. Not that I have crunched the numbers, but it’s not that far fetch for me to believe that there is substantial chance that one runs into at least one “nationwide revolution event” in any given 75 year time span.
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Mikhailoh
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
It also does not take into account the changes in technology that helped drive revolutions such as the printing press and the internet, factors that may impede revolutions like the advent of nuclear weapons, growing sense of global relationships, nor historical causal factors such a slavery. Idle doodling by a guy who should probably stick to stormwater rather than historical probability.
Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball
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Davis
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Fulla-Carp
I didn’t read the entire article but generally speaking I don’t spend my life worrying about things that might happen. The math for me is that more time is spent enjoying life.
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Mikhailoh
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
Agreed. Who the hell wants to live in a post-apocalyptic world, anyway?
Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball
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Jolly
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Geaux Tigers!
Mikhailoh
Apr 29 2018, 06:04 AM
Agreed. Who the hell wants to live in a post-apocalyptic world, anyway?
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Mikhailoh
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
:lol2:
Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball
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