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Trump and Steel
Topic Started: Mar 1 2018, 10:26 PM (2,707 Views)
Jolly
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Geaux Tigers!
Axtremus
Jul 11 2018, 05:49 AM
That 200 Billion USD tariff against Chinese imports ... the USTR just published the proposed list of stuff that will be hit by the tariff:

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/301/2018-0026%20China%20FRN%207-10-2018_0.pdf

(The list starts from page 11.)
In the long run, who gets hurt worse?
The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros
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xenon
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Senior Carp
If you believe that markets are a primary tool for prosperity and that that the world will be a more integrated market in the long run (50 years from now will there be more competitiveness among countries in terms of human capital or less?) - then the U.S. is absolutely hurting its long run interests.

Core conservatism.
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Jolly
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Geaux Tigers!
xenon
Jul 11 2018, 09:16 AM
If you believe that markets are a primary tool for prosperity and that that the world will be a more integrated market in the long run (50 years from now will there be more competitiveness among countries in terms of human capital or less?) - then the U.S. is absolutely hurting its long run interests.

Core conservatism.
That's not really the answer to the question, which is who gets hurt worse, China or the U.S.?
The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros
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Copper
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Shortstop
xenon
Jul 11 2018, 09:16 AM
If you believe that markets are a primary tool for prosperity

Military strength is the primary tool for prosperity.

At least it has been since the dawn of man but I guess that could change completely at any time.
The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy
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xenon
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Jolly
Jul 11 2018, 09:28 AM
xenon
Jul 11 2018, 09:16 AM
If you believe that markets are a primary tool for prosperity and that that the world will be a more integrated market in the long run (50 years from now will there be more competitiveness among countries in terms of human capital or less?) - then the U.S. is absolutely hurting its long run interests.

Core conservatism.
That's not really the answer to the question, which is who gets hurt worse, China or the U.S.?
The economics geek in me reacted to the term "long run "
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Mikhailoh
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
So 50 more years of disproportionate trade arrangements will just settle it all out by itself with no one taking action?

Nahhhh.

Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball
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xenon
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Posted Image

It's actually been going just fine.
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Mikhailoh
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
Really? You think that European tariffs on American cars being four times what we charge on European cars is just fine?
Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball
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Copper
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Mikhailoh
Jul 11 2018, 03:39 PM
Really? You think that European tariffs on American cars being four times what we charge on European cars is just fine?
No
The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy
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xenon
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Mikhailoh
Jul 11 2018, 03:39 PM
Really? You think that European tariffs on American cars being four times what we charge on European cars is just fine?
Yes - really.

What I said was that the trend that tariffs and trade was going in was phenomenal. You can pick examples on any number of items where other countries have higher tariffs than the US, and where the US has higher tariffs than them.

The bottom line though is that tariffs are at historical lows (5% or less for industrialized nations). They're mostly political tools now to protect special interests. You could remove them all tomorrow and the fundamentals of world trade wouldn't shift that much.

The trend is moving in the right direction. Question is, will the actions that Trump is taking continue or impede that momentum.
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xenon
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And I have no doubt that the US may win some short term concessions here.

They won't move the needle in terms of aggregate national GDP - and we'll have less of a values-based argument to make to developing countries as we try to open up their markets.

We're giving credence to the idea of protectionism now (which has been pretty thoroughly discredited) - instead of dismantling it.
Edited by xenon, Jul 11 2018, 05:35 PM.
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Copper
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Shortstop

Whether it is protectionism or fairness depends on whether you win or lose.

Reporting on whether it is protectionism or fairness depends on whether you support democrats or republicans.

I know you love to talk about the wisdom of the long term solution and somehow the genius long term solution always seems to be the opposite of whatever Mr. Trump does.

It's getting kind of predictable.

Mr. Trump and his advisers are a fairly clever group with a significant amount of experience with everything. And they have the fortunes to back that up.

It's just not possible that everything they do is naive and stupid.

The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy
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Larry
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Mmmmmmm, pie!
Xenon, I sure am glad you're not in charge of anything.
Of the Pokatwat Tribe

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xenon
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Senior Carp
Glad you're happy
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Klaus
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HOLY CARP!!!
Mikhailoh
Jul 11 2018, 03:39 PM
Really? You think that European tariffs on American cars being four times what we charge on European cars is just fine?
But you cannot just pick one particular example when you compare tariffs.

For instance, the US charges 25% tariffs on imported light trucks, compared to Europe's 10%.

You have to compare the overall average tariffs. It is true that the average is a little higher for imports to the EU than for imports to the US (I think it's something like 5% vs 3%), and it is reasonable to demand that this is more equal. However, picking examples where it is particularly asymmetric isn't helpful because there's always a counterexample where it is the other way around.

However, I fear that Trump's behaviour leads to higher tariffs everywhere. It would be better for everyone if we'd agree on making them lower everywhere.

Also, Trump seems to have a very strange way of viewing trade. He seems to think: Trade deficit = looser/unfair, trade surplus = winner. I think that's nonsense to a large degree. Even if a country would slash 5000% tariffs on everything, it can still be in the interest of another country to allow imports of their products with low or no tariffs. It is not the country which exports stuff which pays those tariffs. And trade deficits are not necessarily due to unfair conditions. It could just be that the other country makes particularly attractive products.
Trifonov Fleisher Klaus Sokolov Zimmerman
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Mikhailoh
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
Nice analysis, but the example I quoted still holds the same point your piece does. Disproportionate tariffs, ergo a condition that should be remedied.

BUT...mine will never get a tl;dr. :lol2:
Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball
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Copper
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Shortstop
Klaus
Jul 11 2018, 11:04 PM

It could just be that the other country makes particularly attractive products.

I think that doesn't get enough attention in this debate.

Our ability to manufacture has really diminished. It would be nice to build this back up a little bit.

Of course we still want to take advantage of slave labor and human rights abuses in the cheap labor countries but that is not going to continue forever.
The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy
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