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Believing CO2 controls the climate ‘is pretty close to believing in magic’
Topic Started: Jun 6 2017, 05:38 AM (724 Views)
Copper
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Shortstop

How was this not posted here?


http://www.climatedepot.com/2017/05/01/mit-climate-scientist-dr-richard-lindzen-believing-co2-controls-the-climate-is-pretty-close-to-believing-in-magic/

Quote:
 
MIT Climate Scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen: Believing CO2 controls the climate ‘is pretty close to believing in magic’

Lindzen: "Doubling CO2 involves a 2% perturbation to this budget. So do minor changes in clouds and other features, and such changes are common. In this complex multifactor system, what is the likelihood of the climate (which, itself, consists in many variables and not just globally averaged temperature anomaly) is controlled by this 2% perturbation in a single variable? Believing this is pretty close to believing in magic. Instead, you are told that it is believing in ‘science.’ Such a claim should be a tip-off that something is amiss. After all, science is a mode of inquiry rather than a belief structure."
"The accumulation of false and/or misleading claims is often referred to as the ‘overwhelming evidence’ for forthcoming catastrophe. Without these claims, one might legitimately ask whether there is any evidence at all."

Introduction:

For over 30 years, I have been giving talks on the science of climate change. When, however, I speak to a non-expert audience, and attempt to explain such matters as climate sensitivity, the relation of global mean temperature anomaly to extreme weather, that warming has decreased profoundly for the past 18 years, etc., it is obvious that the audience’s eyes are glazing over. Although I have presented evidence as to why the issue is not a catastrophe and may likely be beneficial, the response is puzzlement.

I am typically asked how this is possible. After all, 97% of scientists agree, several of the hottest years on record have occurred during the past 18 years, all sorts of extremes have become more common, polar bears are disappearing, as is arctic ice, etc. In brief, there is overwhelming evidence of warming, etc. I tended to be surprised that anyone could get away with such sophistry or even downright dishonesty, but it is, unfortunately, the case that this was not evident to many of my listeners. I will try in this brief article to explain why such claims are, in fact, evidence of the dishonesty of the alarmist position.

The 97% meme:

This claim is actually a come-down from the 1988 claim on the cover of Newsweek that all scientists agree. In either case, the claim is meant to satisfy the non-expert that he or she has no need to understand the science. Mere agreement with the 97% will indicate that one is a supporter of science and superior to anyone denying disaster. This actually satisfies a psychological need for many people. The claim is made by a number of individuals and there are a number of ways in which the claim is presented.

A thorough debunking has been given in the Wall Street Journal by Bast and Spencer. One of the dodges is to poll scientists as to whether they agree that CO2 levels in the atmosphere have increased, that the Earth has been warming (albeit only a little) and that man has played some part. This is, indeed, something almost all of us can agree on, but which has no obvious implication of danger. Nonetheless this is portrayed as support for catastrophism. Other dodges involve looking at a large number of abstracts where only a few actually deal with danger. If among these few, 97% support catastrophism, the 97% is presented as pertaining to the much larger totality of abstracts. One of my favorites is the recent claim in the Christian Science Monitor (a once respected and influential newspaper): “For the record, of the nearly 70,000 peer-reviewed articles on global warming published in 2013 and 2014, four authors rejected the idea that humans are the main drivers of climate change.” I don’t think that it takes an expert to recognize that this claim is a bizarre fantasy for many obvious reasons. Even the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (this body, generally referred to as the IPCC is the body created by the UN to provide ‘authoritative’ assessments of manmade climate change) doesn’t agree with the claim.
Despite the above, I am somewhat surprised that it was necessary to use the various shenanigans described above.

Since this issue fully emerged in public almost 30 years ago (and was instantly incorporated into the catechism of political correctness), there has been a huge increase in government funding of the area, and the funding has been predicated on the premise of climate catastrophism. By now, most of the people working in this area have entered in response to this funding. Note that governments have essentially a monopoly over the funding in this area. I would expect that the recipients of this funding would feel obligated to support the seriousness of the problem. Certainly, opposition to this would be a suicidal career move for a young academic. Perhaps the studies simply needed to properly phrase their questions so as to achieve levels of agreement for alarm that would be large though perhaps not as large as was required for the 97% meme especially if the respondents are allowed anonymity.



The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy
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Moonbat
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Pisa-Carp
Lindzen again?
Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem
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John D'Oh
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MAMIL
Moonbat
Jun 6 2017, 08:41 AM
Lindzen again?
Well, he's qualified, and it makes a pleasant change from those garishly multi-coloured sites that usually get linked to.

I recently watched a British documentary on Chaos Theory where climatologist Prof. Peter Cox said that yes, man-made warming was real, but that we'd quite likely passed the point at which anything could be done about it. Cheerful bloke.
What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket?
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Larry
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Mmmmmmm, pie!
Even if man *is* contributing to "warming" (you're supposed to call it "climate change, not warming, because there hasn't been any warming in a long, long time).... it's a good thing, since co2 is plant food. If you want to "save the planet go plant a couple of trees and get your hand out of my pocket - and stop insulting our intelligence by claiming this issue has *anything* to do with climate.
Of the Pokatwat Tribe

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John D'Oh
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MAMIL
Larry
Jun 6 2017, 09:02 AM
Even if man *is* contributing to "warming" (you're supposed to call it "climate change, not warming, because there hasn't been any warming in a long, long time).... it's a good thing, since co2 is plant food. If you want to "save the planet go plant a couple of trees and get your hand out of my pocket - and stop insulting our intelligence by claiming this issue has *anything* to do with climate.
Lots of people on both sides of the debate sound very sure of themselves on this topic.

Me, I'm not sure. It seems to me like this is really freaking complex, and I'm unwilling to come to a conclusion based on how much I understand.
What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket?
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Larry
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Mmmmmmm, pie!
I just remind myself that Algore wrote in his book that we would be buried under the oceans by 2015, and it's 2017 and everything is still pretty much the same as it was when he wrote that.
Of the Pokatwat Tribe

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Moonbat
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Pisa-Carp
.
Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem
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Copper
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Shortstop
..
The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy
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kluurs
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Fulla-Carp
This is kind of interesting -

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/
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Horace
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HOLY CARP!!!
John D'Oh
Jun 6 2017, 08:50 AM
Moonbat
Jun 6 2017, 08:41 AM
Lindzen again?
Well, he's qualified, and it makes a pleasant change from those garishly multi-coloured sites that usually get linked to.
I wonder if there's a single other example in the world of a scientific conclusion, which isn't self-evident, which has important political ramifications. I don't think there is. But I know the political (and ultimately personal, financial) pressure felt by those participating in the consensus must be enormous.
As a good person, I implore you to do as I, a good person, do. Be good. Do NOT be bad. If you see bad, end bad. End it in yourself, and end it in others. By any means necessary, the good must conquer the bad. Good people know this. Do you know this? Are you good?
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Jolly
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Geaux Tigers!
Me, I don't think either side has a lock on the Truth, as too much of the science is unknown and the model is subject to change with the natural climate changes of the earth and the sun.

Face it, we're all one good solar flare from being toast.
The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros
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Copper
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Shortstop
Horace
Jun 6 2017, 11:24 AM
John D'Oh
Jun 6 2017, 08:50 AM
Moonbat
Jun 6 2017, 08:41 AM
Lindzen again?
Well, he's qualified, and it makes a pleasant change from those garishly multi-coloured sites that usually get linked to.
I wonder if there's a single other example in the world of a scientific conclusion, which isn't self-evident, which has important political ramifications. I don't think there is. But I know the political (and ultimately personal, financial) pressure felt by those participating in the consensus must be enormous.

Every generation has it's truth.

Posted Image
The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy
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Renauda
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HOLY CARP!!!
kluurs
Jun 6 2017, 10:00 AM
Just a smidgeon more than "kind of" I would say.
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jon-nyc
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Cheers
Horace
Jun 6 2017, 11:24 AM
I don't think there is.
Evolutionary psychology.
In my defense, I was left unsupervised.
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Larry
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Mmmmmmm, pie!
Renauda
Jun 6 2017, 02:55 PM
kluurs
Jun 6 2017, 10:00 AM
Just a smidgeon more than "kind of" I would say.
All it shows is that if you know how to create a moving graph, you can get people to look.

Shiny, shiny shoes....
Of the Pokatwat Tribe

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Axtremus
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HOLY CARP!!!
Jolly
Jun 6 2017, 11:26 AM
Face it, we're all one good solar flare from being toast.
Yet you cling to your guns and refuse to let gay couples marry.
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Larry
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Mmmmmmm, pie!
That's pretty stupid, Ax.
Of the Pokatwat Tribe

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John D'Oh
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MAMIL
Horace
Jun 6 2017, 11:24 AM
John D'Oh
Jun 6 2017, 08:50 AM
Moonbat
Jun 6 2017, 08:41 AM
Lindzen again?
Well, he's qualified, and it makes a pleasant change from those garishly multi-coloured sites that usually get linked to.
I wonder if there's a single other example in the world of a scientific conclusion, which isn't self-evident, which has important political ramifications. I don't think there is. But I know the political (and ultimately personal, financial) pressure felt by those participating in the consensus must be enormous.
I would say that evolution by natural selection is self-evident. Mike Pence apparently would disagree. It seems to have political ramifications in the US, maybe not particularly important ones except to those who feel that somehow Darwin's theory undermines their spiritual beliefs, a view I don't really understand, unless one takes the Bible literally, which again I don't really understand.
What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket?
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Axtremus
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HOLY CARP!!!
Larry
Jun 6 2017, 03:23 PM
That's pretty stupid, Ax.
Indeed, rather silly to think that either guns or homophobia can scare or appease the sun god into not flaring you.
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Renauda
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HOLY CARP!!!
Larry
Jun 6 2017, 03:18 PM
Renauda
Jun 6 2017, 02:55 PM
kluurs
Jun 6 2017, 10:00 AM
Just a smidgeon more than "kind of" I would say.
All it shows is that if you know how to create a moving graph, you can get people to look.

Shiny, shiny shoes....
So will mooning them. You should know'd that.
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Jolly
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Geaux Tigers!
Axtremus
Jun 6 2017, 03:19 PM
Jolly
Jun 6 2017, 11:26 AM
Face it, we're all one good solar flare from being toast.
Yet you cling to your guns and refuse to let gay couples marry.
I don't cling to anything, schiesskopf. And I don't have anything against gays marrying, as long as it is somebody of the opposite sex...

Klaus, pardon me if I misspelled that one.
The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros
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Rainman
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Fulla-Carp
Ax, why are you racist?

And, you know you'd be in big trouble if your dog could dial a phone.

Sorry if I'm putting words in your mouth, and then expecting you to explain.
:wave:

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Larry
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Mmmmmmm, pie!
Axtremus
Jun 6 2017, 03:31 PM
Larry
Jun 6 2017, 03:23 PM
That's pretty stupid, Ax.
Indeed, rather silly to think that either guns or homophobia can scare or appease the sun god into not flaring you.
What was stupid about it is your apparent ignorant belief that people who don't buy into the religion of climate change think guns scare away a sun god. What was stupid about it was your apparent ignorant belief that those who do not buy into the religion of climate change are by virtue of that, homophobic. And further, that you are stupid enough to think that being against gay marriage has anything to do with homophobia - a word I now seriously doubt you even know the meaning of.

What was stupid about it was how you managed in so few words to give us an example of the kind of brain rot those on my side of the fence have to deal with when engaging a leftwing nutjob, a prime example of why those of us with a functioning brain no longer see a reason to give the left's viewpoint any credibility.
Of the Pokatwat Tribe

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Steve Miller
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Bull-Carp
John D'Oh
Jun 6 2017, 08:50 AM
Moonbat
Jun 6 2017, 08:41 AM
Lindzen again?


I recently watched a British documentary on Chaos Theory where climatologist Prof. Peter Cox said that yes, man-made warming was real, but that we'd quite likely passed the point at which anything could be done about it. Cheerful bloke.
From what I can tell, that's about the most realistic position out there.


Florida is so fvcked.
Edited by Steve Miller, Jun 6 2017, 05:25 PM.
Wag more
Bark less
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Larry
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Mmmmmmm, pie!
Bahahahahahahahaaaaaaaaa!!
Of the Pokatwat Tribe

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