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| The Debate | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Sep 25 2016, 02:00 PM (2,893 Views) | |
| Axtremus | Sep 27 2016, 06:10 AM Post #76 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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The significance of quoting Frank Luntz saying Hillary won in his focus group, George, is that Luntz is a well-known Republican pollster. |
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| kluurs | Sep 27 2016, 06:21 AM Post #77 |
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Fulla-Carp
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For many, it is a choice between a bad president and a really bad president. There just isn't a consensus on which is which. |
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| George K | Sep 27 2016, 06:37 AM Post #78 |
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Finally
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I understand this. The significance of my link is that the snap polls of many outlets (many left-leaning) disagree with Luntz's observations of 27 people. |
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A guide to GKSR: Click "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08 Nothing is as effective as homeopathy. I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles. - Klaus, 4/29/18 | |
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| Luke's Dad | Sep 27 2016, 06:37 AM Post #79 |
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Emperor Pengin
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The Howard Dean thing shouldn't matter except I've already seen multiple people on my Facebook page repeat it as gospel. |
| The problem with having an open mind is that people keep trying to put things in it. | |
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| Catseye | Sep 27 2016, 07:06 AM Post #80 |
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Pisa-Carp
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What does the money think? Here's an enlightening column in Vanity Fair: http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/wall-street-is-having-a-trump-freak-out. Highlights: 1. Wall Street, few people realize, is filled with Democrats. And it is particularly inclined toward Hillary Clinton. More than anything, however, Wall Street likes predictability. And Clinton, for all of her waffling, is predictable . . . [It] knows what a Clinton presidency would look like: at heart, she's a centrist and would govern like one. That's just fine on Wall Street, especially if the Republicans keep control of the Senate to tamp down the progressive wing's influence. 2. But what would a Trump presidency look like, and how would it affect the investing community? . . . Trump has repeatedly resisted coaching from nearly all of his aides. And it is that fact, in particular, that really petrifies many of the financial executives. They [worry] about what effect his extemporaneous comments may have on the markets. Wall Street likes to take risks. On the other hand, it likes to mitigate as much risk as it possibly can. Who knows what will come out of President Trump's mouth on any given day or whom he will offend and how upsetting his verbal diarrhea will be to world markets. So the smart ones are busy trying to hedge those risks. [There is] sufficient worry about a market disruption in the face of a Trump presidency that they are reining in their risk-taking, even beyond what the regulators have already reined in. That should give people pause. So bottom line: Wall Street is hoping for the best (Clinton) and preparing for the worst (Trump). Words to the wise, maybe? |
| "How awful a knowledge of the truth can be." -- Sophocles, Oedipus Rex | |
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| Axtremus | Sep 27 2016, 07:12 AM Post #81 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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You do not understand this. If you did, you would have cited known Democratic pollsters' focus group results that show Trump ahead (granted, such results may not exist). Instead, you cited a bunch of Internet polls with self-selected participants with no assurance that no one voted more than once in each poll. |
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| Aqua Letifer | Sep 27 2016, 07:14 AM Post #82 |
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ZOOOOOM!
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jon would know more about this, but if Trump wins the election, November/December could be a buyer's paradise. If he doesn't destroy the country outright, the turmoil would create a great opportunity to invest. I think Clinton's going to do a little bit of the same, though, just on a smaller scale. Nobody likes either candidate. |
| I cite irreconcilable differences. | |
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| George K | Sep 27 2016, 07:20 AM Post #83 |
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Finally
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That's true. Because Luntz's sample of 27 people is superior to the people who voted more than once in each poll. I'm not disputing the idea that Clinton may have "won" the debate, simply saying that most people who voted did. And that number is more than a million. |
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A guide to GKSR: Click "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08 Nothing is as effective as homeopathy. I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles. - Klaus, 4/29/18 | |
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| Copper | Sep 27 2016, 07:22 AM Post #84 |
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Shortstop
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That is the story the Clinton campaign is trying to sell. It is not true. Historically the prediction is that democrats will crush Wall Street so if they get elected the market might trend down. If the republican gets elected the markets trend up. But in the first year of a democrat presidency the markets go up because they realize the democrat isn't really going to deliver on their promises. But in the first year of a republican presidency the markets go down because they realize the republican isn't really going to deliver on their promises. At least this is what my financial adviser tells me. |
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The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy | |
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| Axtremus | Sep 27 2016, 07:25 AM Post #85 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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It is, because controlled random samples beat self-selected samples, live polls beat anonymous Internet polls. You may "see" a million votes on the Internet, but you no assurance that those votes are from a million distinct individuals or from just a few coders running scripts stuffing votes over the Internet. |
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| Axtremus | Sep 27 2016, 07:30 AM Post #86 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Fact-checking the debate ... http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-presidential-debate-fact-check |
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| George K | Sep 27 2016, 07:33 AM Post #87 |
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Finally
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A guide to GKSR: Click "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08 Nothing is as effective as homeopathy. I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles. - Klaus, 4/29/18 | |
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| George K | Sep 27 2016, 07:38 AM Post #88 |
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Finally
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Another poll: https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/27/57-viewers-say-clinton-won-first-debate/
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A guide to GKSR: Click "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08 Nothing is as effective as homeopathy. I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles. - Klaus, 4/29/18 | |
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| Mikhailoh | Sep 27 2016, 07:42 AM Post #89 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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The problem with a Trump victory is that it portends a Congressional slaughter in 2018. I think we will be better off with a Clinton presidency that allows the GOP to retain Congress and state governments. That gives them check and balance over SCOTUS nominations and the purse strings. |
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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| Larry | Sep 27 2016, 07:44 AM Post #90 |
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Mmmmmmm, pie!
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Sorry, but if you think a poll of 27 people is more credible than a poll wirh a million plus votes, and then dismiss the larger sample wirh the excuse that fewer than 27 people voted tens of thousands of times each, then you're not right in the head. |
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Of the Pokatwat Tribe | |
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| John Galt | Sep 27 2016, 07:45 AM Post #91 |
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Fulla-Carp
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I think Nate Silver had some interesting observations and analysis: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ |
| Let us begin anew, remembering on both sides that civility is not a sign of weakness. | |
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| Larry | Sep 27 2016, 07:53 AM Post #92 |
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Mmmmmmm, pie!
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Wishful thinking. |
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Of the Pokatwat Tribe | |
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| Luke's Dad | Sep 27 2016, 07:56 AM Post #93 |
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Emperor Pengin
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How many electoral votes do these polls about the debate award? The needle didn't move either way and it won't from a debate unless Clinton actually has a Grand Mal on stage or Trump starts screaming "I hate wetbacks and spades!" |
| The problem with having an open mind is that people keep trying to put things in it. | |
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| George K | Sep 27 2016, 08:01 AM Post #94 |
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Finally
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(slightly off-topic) And, my friend, therein lies the problem with a Johnson candidacy. I really don't see any path for him to get to 270 electoral votes. The only possible outcome is him keeping the *other two* from reaching it. In that case, "Mr. Trump, please raise your right hand and repeat after me...." |
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A guide to GKSR: Click "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08 Nothing is as effective as homeopathy. I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles. - Klaus, 4/29/18 | |
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| Catseye | Sep 27 2016, 08:01 AM Post #95 |
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Pisa-Carp
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And probably not then -- thus strengthening my growing suspicion that 82.2 percent of voters decided who won the debate before the debate even started. |
| "How awful a knowledge of the truth can be." -- Sophocles, Oedipus Rex | |
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| Mikhailoh | Sep 27 2016, 08:02 AM Post #96 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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No one calls them spades anymore, LsD. That went out after Mott The Hoople did All The Way to Memphis. |
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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| Catseye | Sep 27 2016, 08:20 AM Post #97 |
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Pisa-Carp
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Results from the OTDARBDOB* Poll Answering the Question of Who Won the Debate. Trump: 49% Clinton: 38% Darts that fell on the floor: 13%. Professional pollsters applied obscure arcane formulae to distribute statistically non-significant groups among this category for lovers of infinitesima like Ax, for whom no detail is too minuscule. -Respondents who answered, I don't know and furthermore I don't give a [expletive deleted] - 9%; -I couldn't hear what they was saying cuz I got this ear condition - 1%; -That Hillary broad don't look half bad in red, for two cents even I'd [expletive deleted] her fat [expletive deleted] - 2.7%; -What debate? - .299%; -Could you speak up? I got this ear condition - .001. *Orangutang Throwing Darts At Red and Blue Dots On A Board Edited by Catseye, Sep 29 2016, 04:47 AM.
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| "How awful a knowledge of the truth can be." -- Sophocles, Oedipus Rex | |
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| Luke's Dad | Sep 27 2016, 08:24 AM Post #98 |
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Emperor Pengin
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This is one year that I'm glad for the fact that my vote will mean nothing in determining the outcome. I will vote for my local, state, and congressional candidates. Then I will write in an alternative to any of the candidates on the stage, go home and start drinking. |
| The problem with having an open mind is that people keep trying to put things in it. | |
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| George K | Sep 27 2016, 08:49 AM Post #99 |
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Finally
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Here's another Focus Group:
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A guide to GKSR: Click "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08 Nothing is as effective as homeopathy. I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles. - Klaus, 4/29/18 | |
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| Luke's Dad | Sep 27 2016, 09:18 AM Post #100 |
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Emperor Pengin
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LOL, so Johnson won! |
| The problem with having an open mind is that people keep trying to put things in it. | |
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That should give people pause.

4:59 PM Jul 10