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The Debate
Topic Started: Sep 25 2016, 02:00 PM (2,893 Views)
Axtremus
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HOLY CARP!!!
George K
Sep 27 2016, 05:18 AM
Axtremus
Sep 27 2016, 04:45 AM
In my focus group, 6 people said Trump and 16 said Clinton. #DebateNight
Some "snap polls"

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3809204/Most-snap-polls-Trump-winning-debate-landslide.html
...
The significance of quoting Frank Luntz saying Hillary won in his focus group, George, is that Luntz is a well-known Republican pollster.
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kluurs
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Fulla-Carp
For many, it is a choice between a bad president and a really bad president. There just isn't a consensus on which is which.
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George K
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Finally
Axtremus
Sep 27 2016, 06:10 AM
The significance of quoting Frank Luntz saying Hillary won in his focus group, George, is that Luntz is a well-known Republican pollster.
I understand this. The significance of my link is that the snap polls of many outlets (many left-leaning) disagree with Luntz's observations of 27 people.
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- Mik, 6/14/08


Nothing is as effective as homeopathy.

I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles.
- Klaus, 4/29/18
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Luke's Dad
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Emperor Pengin
The Howard Dean thing shouldn't matter except I've already seen multiple people on my Facebook page repeat it as gospel.
The problem with having an open mind is that people keep trying to put things in it.
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Catseye
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kluurs
Sep 27 2016, 06:21 AM
For many, it is a choice between a bad president and a really bad president. There just isn't a consensus on which is which.
What does the money think?

Here's an enlightening column in Vanity Fair: http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/wall-street-is-having-a-trump-freak-out.

Highlights:
1. Wall Street, few people realize, is filled with Democrats. And it is particularly inclined toward Hillary Clinton. More than anything, however, Wall Street likes predictability. And Clinton, for all of her waffling, is predictable . . . [It] knows what a Clinton presidency would look like: at heart, she's a centrist and would govern like one. That's just fine on Wall Street, especially if the Republicans keep control of the Senate to tamp down the progressive wing's influence.

2. But what would a Trump presidency look like, and how would it affect the investing community? . . . Trump has repeatedly resisted coaching from nearly all of his aides. And it is that fact, in particular, that really petrifies many of the financial executives. They [worry] about what effect his extemporaneous comments may have on the markets.

Wall Street likes to take risks. On the other hand, it likes to mitigate as much risk as it possibly can. Who knows what will come out of President Trump's mouth on any given day or whom he will offend and how upsetting his verbal diarrhea will be to world markets. So the smart ones are busy trying to hedge those risks. [There is] sufficient worry about a market disruption in the face of a Trump presidency that they are reining in their risk-taking, even beyond what the regulators have already reined in. :rightarrow: That should give people pause. :leftarrow:

So bottom line: Wall Street is hoping for the best (Clinton) and preparing for the worst (Trump).

Words to the wise, maybe?
"How awful a knowledge of the truth can be." -- Sophocles, Oedipus Rex
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Axtremus
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HOLY CARP!!!
George K
Sep 27 2016, 06:37 AM
Axtremus
Sep 27 2016, 06:10 AM
The significance of quoting Frank Luntz saying Hillary won in his focus group, George, is that Luntz is a well-known Republican pollster.
I understand this. The significance of my link is that the snap polls of many outlets (many left-leaning) disagree with Luntz's observations of 27 people.
You do not understand this. If you did, you would have cited known Democratic pollsters' focus group results that show Trump ahead (granted, such results may not exist). Instead, you cited a bunch of Internet polls with self-selected participants with no assurance that no one voted more than once in each poll.
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Aqua Letifer
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ZOOOOOM!
Catseye
Sep 27 2016, 07:06 AM
Words to the wise, maybe?
jon would know more about this, but if Trump wins the election, November/December could be a buyer's paradise. If he doesn't destroy the country outright, the turmoil would create a great opportunity to invest.

I think Clinton's going to do a little bit of the same, though, just on a smaller scale. Nobody likes either candidate.
I cite irreconcilable differences.
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George K
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Finally
Axtremus
Sep 27 2016, 07:12 AM
a bunch of Internet polls with self-selected participants with no assurance that no one voted more than once in each poll.
That's true.

Because Luntz's sample of 27 people is superior to the people who voted more than once in each poll.

I'm not disputing the idea that Clinton may have "won" the debate, simply saying that most people who voted did. And that number is more than a million.
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"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... "
- Mik, 6/14/08


Nothing is as effective as homeopathy.

I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles.
- Klaus, 4/29/18
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Copper
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Shortstop
Catseye
Sep 27 2016, 07:06 AM
Clinton, for all of her waffling, is predictable . .

That is the story the Clinton campaign is trying to sell. It is not true.

Historically the prediction is that democrats will crush Wall Street so if they get elected the market might trend down. If the republican gets elected the markets trend up.

But in the first year of a democrat presidency the markets go up because they realize the democrat isn't really going to deliver on their promises.

But in the first year of a republican presidency the markets go down because they realize the republican isn't really going to deliver on their promises.

At least this is what my financial adviser tells me.

The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy
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Axtremus
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HOLY CARP!!!
George K
Sep 27 2016, 07:20 AM
Axtremus
Sep 27 2016, 07:12 AM
a bunch of Internet polls with self-selected participants with no assurance that no one voted more than once in each poll.
That's true.

Because Luntz's sample of 27 people is superior to the people who voted more than once in each poll.
It is, because controlled random samples beat self-selected samples, live polls beat anonymous Internet polls. You may "see" a million votes on the Internet, but you no assurance that those votes are from a million distinct individuals or from just a few coders running scripts stuffing votes over the Internet.
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Axtremus
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HOLY CARP!!!
Fact-checking the debate ...

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-presidential-debate-fact-check
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George K
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Finally
jon-nyc
Sep 26 2016, 03:19 PM
George K
Sep 26 2016, 01:21 PM
I've already started drinking.
A better way to phrase that might be you never really stopped.
Posted Image
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"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... "
- Mik, 6/14/08


Nothing is as effective as homeopathy.

I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles.
- Klaus, 4/29/18
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George K
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Finally
Another poll: https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/27/57-viewers-say-clinton-won-first-debate/

Quote:
 
YouGov's latest research shows that most people who watched last night's debate say that Hillary Clinton won it. 57% of Americans who watched the debate say that she won the debate, while 30% say that Donald Trump won the debate. 13% of viewers aren't sure who, exactly, came out on top.

83% of Democrats called it for Clinton, and 68% of Republicans said that Trump won. Among independents, however, sentiment clearly favors Hillary. 54% of independents who watched the debate say that Clinton won, compared to 28% who say that Trump won.
A guide to GKSR: Click

"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... "
- Mik, 6/14/08


Nothing is as effective as homeopathy.

I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles.
- Klaus, 4/29/18
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Mikhailoh
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
The problem with a Trump victory is that it portends a Congressional slaughter in 2018. I think we will be better off with a Clinton presidency that allows the GOP to retain Congress and state governments. That gives them check and balance over SCOTUS nominations and the purse strings.
Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball
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Larry
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Mmmmmmm, pie!
Axtremus
Sep 27 2016, 07:25 AM
George K
Sep 27 2016, 07:20 AM
Axtremus
Sep 27 2016, 07:12 AM
a bunch of Internet polls with self-selected participants with no assurance that no one voted more than once in each poll.
That's true.

Because Luntz's sample of 27 people is superior to the people who voted more than once in each poll.
It is, because controlled random samples beat self-selected samples, live polls beat anonymous Internet polls. You may "see" a million votes on the Internet, but you no assurance that those votes are from a million distinct individuals or from just a few coders running scripts stuffing votes over the Internet.
Sorry, but if you think a poll of 27 people is more credible than a poll wirh a million plus votes, and then dismiss the larger sample wirh the excuse that fewer than 27 people voted tens of thousands of times each, then you're not right in the head.
Of the Pokatwat Tribe

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John Galt
Fulla-Carp
I think Nate Silver had some interesting observations and analysis:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/
Let us begin anew, remembering on both sides that civility is not a sign of weakness.
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Larry
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Mmmmmmm, pie!
Wishful thinking.
Of the Pokatwat Tribe

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Luke's Dad
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Emperor Pengin
How many electoral votes do these polls about the debate award?

The needle didn't move either way and it won't from a debate unless Clinton actually has a Grand Mal on stage or Trump starts screaming "I hate wetbacks and spades!"
The problem with having an open mind is that people keep trying to put things in it.
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George K
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Finally
Luke's Dad
Sep 27 2016, 07:56 AM
How many electoral votes do these polls about the debate award?

The needle didn't move either way and it won't from a debate unless Clinton actually has a Grand Mal on stage or Trump starts screaming "I hate wetbacks and spades!"
(slightly off-topic)

And, my friend, therein lies the problem with a Johnson candidacy. I really don't see any path for him to get to 270 electoral votes. The only possible outcome is him keeping the *other two* from reaching it.

In that case, "Mr. Trump, please raise your right hand and repeat after me...."
A guide to GKSR: Click

"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... "
- Mik, 6/14/08


Nothing is as effective as homeopathy.

I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles.
- Klaus, 4/29/18
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Catseye
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Pisa-Carp
Luke's Dad
Sep 27 2016, 07:56 AM
How many electoral votes do these polls about the debate award?

The needle didn't move either way and it won't from a debate unless Clinton actually has a Grand Mal on stage or Trump starts screaming "I hate wetbacks and spades!"

And probably not then -- thus strengthening my growing suspicion that 82.2 percent of voters decided who won the debate before the debate even started.
"How awful a knowledge of the truth can be." -- Sophocles, Oedipus Rex
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Mikhailoh
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
No one calls them spades anymore, LsD. That went out after Mott The Hoople did All The Way to Memphis.
Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball
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Catseye
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Pisa-Carp
Results from the OTDARBDOB* Poll Answering the Question of Who Won the Debate.

Trump: 49%
Clinton: 38%
Darts that fell on the floor: 13%. Professional pollsters applied obscure arcane formulae to distribute statistically non-significant groups among this category for lovers of infinitesima like Ax, for whom no detail is too minuscule.

-Respondents who answered, I don't know and furthermore I don't give a [expletive deleted] - 9%;
-I couldn't hear what they was saying cuz I got this ear condition - 1%;
-That Hillary broad don't look half bad in red, for two cents even I'd [expletive deleted] her fat [expletive deleted] - 2.7%;
-What debate? - .299%;
-Could you speak up? I got this ear condition - .001.



*Orangutang Throwing Darts At Red and Blue Dots On A Board




Edited by Catseye, Sep 29 2016, 04:47 AM.
"How awful a knowledge of the truth can be." -- Sophocles, Oedipus Rex
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Luke's Dad
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Emperor Pengin
George K
Sep 27 2016, 08:01 AM
Luke's Dad
Sep 27 2016, 07:56 AM
How many electoral votes do these polls about the debate award?

The needle didn't move either way and it won't from a debate unless Clinton actually has a Grand Mal on stage or Trump starts screaming "I hate wetbacks and spades!"
(slightly off-topic)

And, my friend, therein lies the problem with a Johnson candidacy. I really don't see any path for him to get to 270 electoral votes. The only possible outcome is him keeping the *other two* from reaching it.

In that case, "Mr. Trump, please raise your right hand and repeat after me...."
This is one year that I'm glad for the fact that my vote will mean nothing in determining the outcome. I will vote for my local, state, and congressional candidates. Then I will write in an alternative to any of the candidates on the stage, go home and start drinking.
The problem with having an open mind is that people keep trying to put things in it.
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George K
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Finally
Axtremus
Sep 27 2016, 07:25 AM
George K
Sep 27 2016, 07:20 AM
Axtremus
Sep 27 2016, 07:12 AM
a bunch of Internet polls with self-selected participants with no assurance that no one voted more than once in each poll.
That's true.

Because Luntz's sample of 27 people is superior to the people who voted more than once in each poll.
It is, because controlled random samples beat self-selected samples, live polls beat anonymous Internet polls. You may "see" a million votes on the Internet, but you no assurance that those votes are from a million distinct individuals or from just a few coders running scripts stuffing votes over the Internet.
Here's another Focus Group:

Quote:
 
Kae Roberts and Jay Eardly were leaning toward Hillary Clinton before Monday night’s debate.

By the end, they had both pulled away.

John Kokos and Hank Federal were undecided going in, potential Clinton backers.

By the end, they’d ruled her out.

Indeed, while polls found that Clinton had won the first general-election debate with Donald Trump on Monday, she may not have won actual votes. And she may even have lost some, at least in the battleground state of North Carolina.

In a focus group of 21 voters from around Charlotte conducted by McClatchy and The Charlotte Observer, four who had been up for grabs before the debate had moved away from her by the end.

The racially diverse group comprised seven Republicans, six Democrats, seven unaffiliated voters and one Libertarian. Their votes are crucial in one of the nation’s key swing states, one in which Trump and Clinton are neck-and-neck in the most recent polls. They live in or around a city rocked in recent days by turmoil over last week’s police shooting of an African-American man.
...
Before the debate, the tally was nine Clinton, three Trump, six undecided and three Johnson. Afterward, it became seven Clinton, three Trump, six undecided and five Johnson.

Johnson, said supporters, was an agent of change, but he didn’t have Trump’s bombast. While they didn’t have many specific reasons for moving his way, they were intrigued.

“I wish he’d been at the debate,” said Federal, a Republican who was undecided before the debate.

Many thought Clinton did better on style and debating points, but she didn’t move them. “Hillary was much cleaner in her evasions,” said Federal, who called Trump “bombastic.”
A guide to GKSR: Click

"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... "
- Mik, 6/14/08


Nothing is as effective as homeopathy.

I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles.
- Klaus, 4/29/18
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Luke's Dad
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Emperor Pengin
LOL, so Johnson won!
The problem with having an open mind is that people keep trying to put things in it.
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