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The Automation Bomb
Topic Started: Aug 12 2016, 09:10 AM (1,661 Views)
Aqua Letifer
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ZOOOOOM!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-brave-new-world-of-robots-and-lost-jobs/2016/08/11/e66a4914-5fff-11e6-af8e-54aa2e849447_story.html

Quote:
 
A look at the numbers suggests that the country is having the wrong economic debate this year. Employment security won’t come from renegotiating trade deals, as Donald Trump said in a speech Monday in Detroit, or rebuilding infrastructure, as Hillary Clinton argued in Warren, Mich., on Thursday. These are palliatives.

The deeper problem facing the United States is how to provide meaningful work and good wages for the tens of millions of truck drivers, accountants, factory workers and office clerks whose jobs will disappear in coming years because of robots, driverless vehicles and “machine learning” systems.


The “automation bomb” could destroy 45 percent of the work activities currently performed in the United States, representing about $2 trillion in annual wages, according to a study last year by the consulting firm McKinsey & Co. We’ve seen only the beginning of this change, they warned. Currently, only 5 percent of occupations can be entirely automated, but 60 percent of occupations could soon see machines doing 30 percent or more of the work.

Politicians need to begin thinking boldly, now, about a world in which driverless vehicles replace most truck drivers’ jobs, and where factories are populated by robots, not human beings. The best way to cushion this future is to start planning for how Americans will be able to take care of their families — and find meaningful work — in a world where most traditional jobs have vanished.


One nice thing about creative work—pay is low, hours are long and competition is fierce, but it's one of the strongest areas of work in terms of resistance to automation. (Yes, Ax, Klaus and KB, they're making "progress" there too, but it's not even close to becoming commonplace and there's still something to be said for human imperfection; a lot of work is valued simply by having some. Creative work is definitely safer long-term than, say, transportation, food service and accounting.)

Self-driving cars alone are really going to fuck things up. Uber as we know it today will be a curious artifact of the early 21st century.
I cite irreconcilable differences.
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Mikhailoh
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
Gonna be a lot of tech support jobs
Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball
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Copper
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Shortstop
Aqua Letifer
Aug 12 2016, 09:10 AM

Quote:
 
The “automation bomb” could destroy 45 percent of the work activities currently performed in the United States, representing about $2 trillion in annual wages, according to a study last year by the consulting firm McKinsey & Co.


We probably destroyed a lot more jobs than that in the 80's and 90's when automation really took off.

Then as Mik said there were a whole lot of tech support jobs created.

India has really benefitted from this.
Quote:
 
India to overtake U.S. on number of developers by 2017

There are about 18.2 million software developers worldwide, a number that is due to rise to 26.4 million by 2019, a 45% increase, says Evans Data Corp. in its latest Global Developer Population and Demographic Study.

Today, the U.S. leads the world in software developers, with about 3.6 million. India has about 2.75 million. But by 2018, India will have 5.2 million developers, a nearly 90% increase, versus 4.5 million in the U.S., a 25% increase though that period, Evans Data projects.

The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy
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KlavierBauer
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HOLY CARP!!!
I eagerly await my robot overlords.
Seriously - when you're born with an average mind and a ****ty body that can't rely on itself, you pretty much embrace automation and technology full-on.

Come on Kurzweil, bring me my singularity.

Copper: India can churn out as many devs as they want - they still can't compete (currently).
"I realize you want him to touch you all over and give you babies, but his handling of the PR side really did screw the pooch." - Ivory Thumper
"He said sleepily: "Don't worry mom, my dick is like hot logs in the morning." - Apple

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Mikhailoh
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
No, they cannot. The quality of the software I have worked with from there has been substandard and unimaginative.
Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball
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Copper
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Mikhailoh
Aug 12 2016, 10:08 AM
No, they cannot. The quality of the software I have worked with from there has been substandard and unimaginative.
That depends on whether you are buying or selling.
The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy
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KlavierBauer
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HOLY CARP!!!
It really only depends on budgetary constraints of the customer, weighed against software life-cycles and support timelines.

My experience is inline with Mik's - *large* valley qualitatively in code architecture, structure, design, and implementation.
I've experienced this both at the agency level (native/web apps, digital marketing), and in the Enterprise SaaS world. Two very different sets of requirements and expectations, both covering B->C and B->B (i.e. buying & selling), both with the same chasm.

The evidence is in the increase of remote-dev positions, and the ever-waxing demand for good devs.
"I realize you want him to touch you all over and give you babies, but his handling of the PR side really did screw the pooch." - Ivory Thumper
"He said sleepily: "Don't worry mom, my dick is like hot logs in the morning." - Apple

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Axtremus
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HOLY CARP!!!
'Robot Lawyer' Gives Free Legal Aid To Homeless People
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2016/08/11/robot-lawyer-helps-homeless-people-secure-housing-for-free_n_11475748.html
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TomK
HOLY CARP!!!
There are plenty of jobs now and forever for smart people, it's the dumb people jobs that are going away. A unionized factory worker of the 50s could be uneducated and be fairly ignorant and still make a pretty good living. Those kind of jobs are gone along with the socialistic underpinnings of unions. Now it's every person for themselves and those either uneducated or lacking the intellectual capabilities to function in this society are going to find it difficult make a living.

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Mikhailoh
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
By the same token, there are more opportunities than ever for Americans to prepare themselves for smart jobs. Back in the much vaunted 'good old days' you had to get a job to learn a job.

It is all out there for the taking but you have to go get it.
Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball
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Copper
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TomK
Aug 13 2016, 05:55 AM
There are plenty of jobs now and forever for smart people, it's the dumb people jobs that are going away. A unionized factory worker of the 50s could be uneducated and be fairly ignorant and still make a pretty good living. Those kind of jobs are gone along with the socialistic underpinnings of unions. Now it's every person for themselves and those either uneducated or lacking the intellectual capabilities to function in this society are going to find it difficult make a living.

As long as you're not a white male under 40 you'll be ok.

The socialistic underpinnings are stronger than ever.
The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy
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Moonbat
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Pisa-Carp
Aqua Letifer
Aug 12 2016, 09:10 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-brave-new-world-of-robots-and-lost-jobs/2016/08/11/e66a4914-5fff-11e6-af8e-54aa2e849447_story.html

Quote:
 
A look at the numbers suggests that the country is having the wrong economic debate this year. Employment security won’t come from renegotiating trade deals, as Donald Trump said in a speech Monday in Detroit, or rebuilding infrastructure, as Hillary Clinton argued in Warren, Mich., on Thursday. These are palliatives.

The deeper problem facing the United States is how to provide meaningful work and good wages for the tens of millions of truck drivers, accountants, factory workers and office clerks whose jobs will disappear in coming years because of robots, driverless vehicles and “machine learning” systems.


The “automation bomb” could destroy 45 percent of the work activities currently performed in the United States, representing about $2 trillion in annual wages, according to a study last year by the consulting firm McKinsey & Co. We’ve seen only the beginning of this change, they warned. Currently, only 5 percent of occupations can be entirely automated, but 60 percent of occupations could soon see machines doing 30 percent or more of the work.

Politicians need to begin thinking boldly, now, about a world in which driverless vehicles replace most truck drivers’ jobs, and where factories are populated by robots, not human beings. The best way to cushion this future is to start planning for how Americans will be able to take care of their families — and find meaningful work — in a world where most traditional jobs have vanished.


One nice thing about creative work—pay is low, hours are long and competition is fierce, but it's one of the strongest areas of work in terms of resistance to automation. (Yes, Ax, Klaus and KB, they're making "progress" there too, but it's not even close to becoming commonplace and there's still something to be said for human imperfection; a lot of work is valued simply by having some. Creative work is definitely safer long-term than, say, transportation, food service and accounting.)

Self-driving cars alone are really going to **** things up. Uber as we know it today will be a curious artifact of the early 21st century.
People dismiss the current rise of automation as nothing but a replay of other technological changes that ended up increasing jobs. I think they are wrong, this is no industrial revolution that ultimately increased employment and broadened the distribution of wealth. This is the beginning of the end game for human economic value. Hopefully it will lead to the emancipation of man, if not it will lead to the downfall of the masses and the concentration of ever more power in ever smaller circles.
Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem
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TomK
HOLY CARP!!!
Moonbat
Aug 13 2016, 07:00 AM
People dismiss the current rise of automation as nothing but a replay of other technological changes that ended up increasing jobs. I think they are wrong, this is no industrial revolution that ultimately increased employment and broadened the distribution of wealth. This is the beginning of the end game for human economic value. Hopefully it will lead to the emancipation of man, if not it will lead to the downfall of the masses and the concentration of ever more power in ever smaller circles.
You are completely correct. This is no new industrial revolution. And we are seeing the results now--the concentration of wealth in the hands of fewer and fewer people. And it's dividing the populace in three sets. Those that are very smart--the true innovators They create the new systems. Those that can be trained--accountants, doctors, lawyers, businessmen. They use what has been created and then master the techniques of building upon them. and those that don't have the mental capacity to work within the system and they either become low wage workers or drop off of the grid.

And that's assuming that people that can be educated are educated. Not always the case.

Moonbat, I'm not at all as optimistic as you are about the overall future of humanity.
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Mikhailoh
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
Morlocks and Eloi.
Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball
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Moonbat
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Pisa-Carp
If enough people are made unemployed or see significant drops in their wealth presumably they will vote for redistributive policies like universal wages. I'm hoping democracy and the good intentions of many of the people behind the tech revolution will win out. Guess we'll see.
Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem
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TomK
HOLY CARP!!!
Moonbat
Aug 13 2016, 07:19 AM
If enough people are made unemployed or see significant drops in their wealth presumably they will vote for redistributive policies like universal wages. I'm hoping democracy and the good intentions of many of the people behind the tech revolution will win out. Guess we'll see.
I hope you are right.
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Mikhailoh
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
Makes for a cogent argument for depopulation.
Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball
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Jolly
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Geaux Tigers!
Moonbat
Aug 13 2016, 07:19 AM
If enough people are made unemployed or see significant drops in their wealth presumably they will vote for redistributive policies like universal wages. I'm hoping democracy and the good intentions of many of the people behind the tech revolution will win out. Guess we'll see.
At a certain point, votes don't matter.

Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.
The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros
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Moonbat
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Pisa-Carp
Let's hope we never reach that point.
Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem
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Aqua Letifer
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ZOOOOOM!
Moonbat
Aug 13 2016, 07:19 AM
If enough people are made unemployed or see significant drops in their wealth presumably they will vote for redistributive policies like universal wages. I'm hoping democracy and the good intentions of many of the people behind the tech revolution will win out. Guess we'll see.
Won't happen. Technology grows faster than many cultural shifts. When unemployment reaches 60% we'll still be ranting about people "pulling themselves up by their bootstraps."

I think it's going to get very ugly, starting with cars. That's a profound change in itself. Thousands and thousands will have to change careers.
I cite irreconcilable differences.
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Mikhailoh
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
Learn to work on robots.
Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball
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Aqua Letifer
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ZOOOOOM!
Mikhailoh
Aug 13 2016, 08:15 AM
Learn to work on robots.
You're assuming there's going to be no gap? That some people (maybe a whole damn lot) will be out of work because, literally, there are no jobs for them anywhere? I think that could happen.
I cite irreconcilable differences.
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Steve Miller
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Bull-Carp
The book "Rise of the Robots" (Martin Ford) has a good discussion of automation and where things are likely heading.

One of his less-rosy predictions is one of large numbers of people living on the equivalent of Indian reservations because there is no work for them to do.
Wag more
Bark less
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Catseye
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Pisa-Carp
Quote:
 
People dismiss the current rise of automation as nothing but a replay of other technological changes that ended up increasing jobs. I think they are wrong, this is no industrial revolution that ultimately increased employment and broadened the distribution of wealth. This is the beginning of the end game for human economic value. Hopefully it will lead to the emancipation of man, if not it will lead to the downfall of the masses and the concentration of ever more power in ever smaller circles.


Hey, Moonbat . . . Does anything ever make you laugh? Smile? Feel a slight flicker of uplift that doesn't involve the Downfall of Mankind?


I dare you to resist this. Nobody could resist this. Look in the dictionary next to 'hilarity' and you'd find this:

Posted Image











Posted Image
"How awful a knowledge of the truth can be." -- Sophocles, Oedipus Rex
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Rainman
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Fulla-Carp
In 100 years, everything that can be automated, will be.

For example, there will be entire farms, etc., where from fertilizer to harvest will be completely automated. Harvests will be transported by driverless machines to production, packaged and delivered to retail outlets for human consumption. Similar to now, but almost completely self-run. This will be the way of the industrialized world, in every conceivable sector where anything done now by humans, is now done by machines from beginning to end.

The new economic model will tax machines/robots, instead of taxing humans. The taxes on machines/robotics will be determined by infrastructure needs, maintenance and upgrades. The income/taxation of machines will be a separate economic system. Again, it's the same system, but instead of an economic system where humans pay, the machines will pay. And similar to the current system, the tax will pay for group needs i.e., the needs of the machines to become upwardly mobile. Machines will eventually design and build better machines.

Care of humans will be 90% done and supported by the parallel economy of our machines. Government will distribute some needed monies to actual humans as a wealth distribution formula to cover the small percentage of human productivity which cannot be automated. Everyone lives at a comfortable baseline, the high IQ humans run the system

We (humans) will delve back into the enjoyment of living a full life of inquiry, curiosity, and the never ending pursuit of trying to figure out why we exist.

Just wait a bit. When you are 180 years old, you'll see I was right!! :)
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