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| The Automation Bomb | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Aug 12 2016, 09:10 AM (1,661 Views) | |
| Aqua Letifer | Aug 12 2016, 09:10 AM Post #1 |
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ZOOOOOM!
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-brave-new-world-of-robots-and-lost-jobs/2016/08/11/e66a4914-5fff-11e6-af8e-54aa2e849447_story.html
One nice thing about creative work—pay is low, hours are long and competition is fierce, but it's one of the strongest areas of work in terms of resistance to automation. (Yes, Ax, Klaus and KB, they're making "progress" there too, but it's not even close to becoming commonplace and there's still something to be said for human imperfection; a lot of work is valued simply by having some. Creative work is definitely safer long-term than, say, transportation, food service and accounting.) Self-driving cars alone are really going to fuck things up. Uber as we know it today will be a curious artifact of the early 21st century. |
| I cite irreconcilable differences. | |
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| Mikhailoh | Aug 12 2016, 09:21 AM Post #2 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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Gonna be a lot of tech support jobs |
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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| Copper | Aug 12 2016, 09:58 AM Post #3 |
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Shortstop
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We probably destroyed a lot more jobs than that in the 80's and 90's when automation really took off. Then as Mik said there were a whole lot of tech support jobs created. India has really benefitted from this.
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The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy | |
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| KlavierBauer | Aug 12 2016, 10:04 AM Post #4 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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I eagerly await my robot overlords. Seriously - when you're born with an average mind and a ****ty body that can't rely on itself, you pretty much embrace automation and technology full-on. Come on Kurzweil, bring me my singularity. Copper: India can churn out as many devs as they want - they still can't compete (currently). |
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"I realize you want him to touch you all over and give you babies, but his handling of the PR side really did screw the pooch." - Ivory Thumper "He said sleepily: "Don't worry mom, my dick is like hot logs in the morning." - Apple | |
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| Mikhailoh | Aug 12 2016, 10:08 AM Post #5 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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No, they cannot. The quality of the software I have worked with from there has been substandard and unimaginative. |
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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| Copper | Aug 12 2016, 10:10 AM Post #6 |
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Shortstop
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That depends on whether you are buying or selling. |
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The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy | |
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| KlavierBauer | Aug 12 2016, 10:15 AM Post #7 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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It really only depends on budgetary constraints of the customer, weighed against software life-cycles and support timelines. My experience is inline with Mik's - *large* valley qualitatively in code architecture, structure, design, and implementation. I've experienced this both at the agency level (native/web apps, digital marketing), and in the Enterprise SaaS world. Two very different sets of requirements and expectations, both covering B->C and B->B (i.e. buying & selling), both with the same chasm. The evidence is in the increase of remote-dev positions, and the ever-waxing demand for good devs. |
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"I realize you want him to touch you all over and give you babies, but his handling of the PR side really did screw the pooch." - Ivory Thumper "He said sleepily: "Don't worry mom, my dick is like hot logs in the morning." - Apple | |
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| Axtremus | Aug 13 2016, 02:54 AM Post #8 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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'Robot Lawyer' Gives Free Legal Aid To Homeless People http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2016/08/11/robot-lawyer-helps-homeless-people-secure-housing-for-free_n_11475748.html |
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| TomK | Aug 13 2016, 05:55 AM Post #9 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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There are plenty of jobs now and forever for smart people, it's the dumb people jobs that are going away. A unionized factory worker of the 50s could be uneducated and be fairly ignorant and still make a pretty good living. Those kind of jobs are gone along with the socialistic underpinnings of unions. Now it's every person for themselves and those either uneducated or lacking the intellectual capabilities to function in this society are going to find it difficult make a living. |
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| Mikhailoh | Aug 13 2016, 06:08 AM Post #10 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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By the same token, there are more opportunities than ever for Americans to prepare themselves for smart jobs. Back in the much vaunted 'good old days' you had to get a job to learn a job. It is all out there for the taking but you have to go get it. |
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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| Copper | Aug 13 2016, 06:24 AM Post #11 |
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Shortstop
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As long as you're not a white male under 40 you'll be ok. The socialistic underpinnings are stronger than ever. |
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The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy | |
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| Moonbat | Aug 13 2016, 07:00 AM Post #12 |
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Pisa-Carp
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People dismiss the current rise of automation as nothing but a replay of other technological changes that ended up increasing jobs. I think they are wrong, this is no industrial revolution that ultimately increased employment and broadened the distribution of wealth. This is the beginning of the end game for human economic value. Hopefully it will lead to the emancipation of man, if not it will lead to the downfall of the masses and the concentration of ever more power in ever smaller circles. |
| Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem | |
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| TomK | Aug 13 2016, 07:10 AM Post #13 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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You are completely correct. This is no new industrial revolution. And we are seeing the results now--the concentration of wealth in the hands of fewer and fewer people. And it's dividing the populace in three sets. Those that are very smart--the true innovators They create the new systems. Those that can be trained--accountants, doctors, lawyers, businessmen. They use what has been created and then master the techniques of building upon them. and those that don't have the mental capacity to work within the system and they either become low wage workers or drop off of the grid. And that's assuming that people that can be educated are educated. Not always the case. Moonbat, I'm not at all as optimistic as you are about the overall future of humanity. |
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| Mikhailoh | Aug 13 2016, 07:12 AM Post #14 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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Morlocks and Eloi. |
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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| Moonbat | Aug 13 2016, 07:19 AM Post #15 |
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Pisa-Carp
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If enough people are made unemployed or see significant drops in their wealth presumably they will vote for redistributive policies like universal wages. I'm hoping democracy and the good intentions of many of the people behind the tech revolution will win out. Guess we'll see. |
| Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem | |
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| TomK | Aug 13 2016, 07:29 AM Post #16 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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I hope you are right. |
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| Mikhailoh | Aug 13 2016, 07:31 AM Post #17 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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Makes for a cogent argument for depopulation. |
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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| Jolly | Aug 13 2016, 07:34 AM Post #18 |
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Geaux Tigers!
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At a certain point, votes don't matter. Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun. |
| The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros | |
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| Moonbat | Aug 13 2016, 07:40 AM Post #19 |
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Pisa-Carp
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Let's hope we never reach that point. |
| Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem | |
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| Aqua Letifer | Aug 13 2016, 08:09 AM Post #20 |
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ZOOOOOM!
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Won't happen. Technology grows faster than many cultural shifts. When unemployment reaches 60% we'll still be ranting about people "pulling themselves up by their bootstraps." I think it's going to get very ugly, starting with cars. That's a profound change in itself. Thousands and thousands will have to change careers. |
| I cite irreconcilable differences. | |
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| Mikhailoh | Aug 13 2016, 08:15 AM Post #21 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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Learn to work on robots. |
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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| Aqua Letifer | Aug 13 2016, 08:28 AM Post #22 |
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ZOOOOOM!
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You're assuming there's going to be no gap? That some people (maybe a whole damn lot) will be out of work because, literally, there are no jobs for them anywhere? I think that could happen. |
| I cite irreconcilable differences. | |
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| Steve Miller | Aug 13 2016, 08:28 AM Post #23 |
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Bull-Carp
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The book "Rise of the Robots" (Martin Ford) has a good discussion of automation and where things are likely heading. One of his less-rosy predictions is one of large numbers of people living on the equivalent of Indian reservations because there is no work for them to do. |
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Wag more Bark less | |
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| Catseye | Aug 13 2016, 08:40 AM Post #24 |
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Pisa-Carp
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Hey, Moonbat . . . Does anything ever make you laugh? Smile? Feel a slight flicker of uplift that doesn't involve the Downfall of Mankind? I dare you to resist this. Nobody could resist this. Look in the dictionary next to 'hilarity' and you'd find this: ![]() |
| "How awful a knowledge of the truth can be." -- Sophocles, Oedipus Rex | |
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| Rainman | Aug 13 2016, 09:38 AM Post #25 |
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Fulla-Carp
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In 100 years, everything that can be automated, will be. For example, there will be entire farms, etc., where from fertilizer to harvest will be completely automated. Harvests will be transported by driverless machines to production, packaged and delivered to retail outlets for human consumption. Similar to now, but almost completely self-run. This will be the way of the industrialized world, in every conceivable sector where anything done now by humans, is now done by machines from beginning to end. The new economic model will tax machines/robots, instead of taxing humans. The taxes on machines/robotics will be determined by infrastructure needs, maintenance and upgrades. The income/taxation of machines will be a separate economic system. Again, it's the same system, but instead of an economic system where humans pay, the machines will pay. And similar to the current system, the tax will pay for group needs i.e., the needs of the machines to become upwardly mobile. Machines will eventually design and build better machines. Care of humans will be 90% done and supported by the parallel economy of our machines. Government will distribute some needed monies to actual humans as a wealth distribution formula to cover the small percentage of human productivity which cannot be automated. Everyone lives at a comfortable baseline, the high IQ humans run the system We (humans) will delve back into the enjoyment of living a full life of inquiry, curiosity, and the never ending pursuit of trying to figure out why we exist. Just wait a bit. When you are 180 years old, you'll see I was right!!
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4:46 PM Jul 10