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Chicago, Chicago
Topic Started: Sep 30 2013, 12:12 PM (421 Views)
VPG
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Pisa-Carp
The beat goes on. Think the Mayor will be reelected?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/30/marcus-rush-shot_n_4016656.html?ref=topbar
I'M NOT YELLING.........I'M ITALIAN...........THAT'S HOW WE TALK!


"People say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look."
Ronald Reagan, Inaugural, 1971

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somebody else's sock
Middle Aged Carp
Funny how the "Chicago is murder capital of the world" meme has evolved.

Murder rate is down 20% from last year, and according to this 2011 table (the most recent year available for FBI statistics) from Wikipedia, you were more likely to be murdered in Philadelphia than in Chicago (sort the cities by Murder and Non-negligent manslaughter).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_cities_by_crime_rate

Edited by somebody else's sock, Sep 30 2013, 01:51 PM.
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VPG
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Pisa-Carp
O K, I will bow to you and declare, Chicago is not the murder capital if the U.S.
Iy's all American cities run by Democrats. Better?
I'M NOT YELLING.........I'M ITALIAN...........THAT'S HOW WE TALK!


"People say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look."
Ronald Reagan, Inaugural, 1971

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somebody else's sock
Middle Aged Carp
No bowing required. And this has nothing to do with who is running the city.

It is about looking at the whole picture rather than a single incident. As a species we tend to notice things that support our thinking and ignore the data that doesn't. I'm just trying to point out there's a bigger picture here.



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Copper
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Shortstop

Move over.

http://news.yahoo.com/chicago-murder-capital-of-america-fbi-142122290.html

Quote:
 

Chicago now murder capital of U.S., FBI says

Move over New York, the Second City is now the murder capital of America.

According to new crime statistics released this week by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Chicago had more homicides in 2012 than any other city in the country. There were 500 murders in Chicago last year, the FBI said, surpassing New York City, which had 419.

In 2011, there were 515 homicides in the Big Apple, compared with the 431 in Chicago.

But as the Washington Post noted, residents of Chicago and New York were much less likely to be victims of a homicide than some Michigan residents. In Flint, for example, there were 63 killings — a staggering number when you consider Flint's population is 101,632 — "meaning 1 in every 1,613 city residents were homicide victims." In Detroit, where 386 killings occurred in 2012, 1 in 1,832 were homicide victims.

Guns were used in the vast majority of slayings in the United States last year. According to the FBI data, 69.3 percent involved a firearm.

Overall, violent crime — homicides and aggravated assaults — was up less than 1 percent in 2012, according to FBI data.

There was some good news in the report. The estimated number of burglaries declined 3.7 percent in 2012, and property crimes (down 0.9 percent) fell for the 10th straight year.

Click here for the full report.

Cities with the most homicides in 2012

1. Chicago | 500
2. New York | 419
3. Detroit | 386
4. Philadelphia | 331
5. Los Angeles | 299
6. Baltimore | 219
7. Houston | 217
8. New Orleans | 193
9. Dallas | 154
10. Memphis | 133
11. Oakland | 126
12. Phoenix | 124
13. St. Louis | 113
14. Kansas City | 105
15. Indianapolis | 101



The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy
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somebody else's sock
Middle Aged Carp
Exactly. The numbers can "mean" what you want them to. Chicago has the largest absolute number of homicides, but in terms of likelihood of being murdered, the article Copper posted notes:

Quote:
 
But as the Washington Post noted, residents of Chicago and New York were much less likely to be victims of a homicide than some Michigan residents. In Flint, for example, there were 63 killings — a staggering number when you consider Flint's population is 101,632 — "meaning 1 in every 1,613 city residents were homicide victims." In Detroit, where 386 killings occurred in 2012, 1 in 1,832 were homicide victims.


A more thorough analysis of what the data mean:

Quote:
 
Thanks to recent headlines, you'd think the FBI rolled out the red carpet and handed Chicago a beautiful, hand-engraved (in cursive!) plaque that reads "Murderiest Murder City in Murderland."

In reality, the FBI did no such thing.

All they did was publish 2012's crime statistics. In fact, at the end of a statement released Sept. 16, they even cautioned against using these statistics for ranking purposes, saying, "These rough rankings provide no insight into the numerous variables that mold crime in a particular town, city, county, state, tribal area, or region."

If the FBI admits their numbers create "misleading perceptions," then why are we, well, propagating misleading perceptions?

Chicago had to have done something to earn the "murder capital" title everyone’s been using the past week, right?

Chicago had more murders than any other city in the United States. According to the FBI, that number was 500. The Chicago Police put that number nearer 506. Whichever number you use, we can agree that it's too high.

But Chicago is the third biggest city in the country.

While it's disappointing we had such a large number of homicides in 2012, more than Los Angeles and New York–the two cities in the country that have a higher populations than Chicago–it's misleading to say this number is an accurate interpretation of Chicago’s problem with violence. Especially when compared to other cities.

How Does The Homicide Rate Work?

A slightly more accurate-or at least fair-way to look at Chicago’s murders is to look at the homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants.

The homicide rate uses a ratio that takes population into account as an alternative way to communicate the amount of murders in an area. If you dare to compare cities, simply quoting the number of losses does not give an accurate or fair picture. You have to consider the overall population. A small town may have fewer deaths overall, but the percentage of people dying may be much higher.

Let's say Batman’s hometown of Gotham City had 200 murders in 2012, while Superman’s home of Metropolis had 210 — which would you say sounds more dangerous? What if I told you the population of Gotham City is 10,000,000 and the population of Metropolis is 11,000,000? If this is the case (and uber fans of these fictional locations know it is), that means .002% of Gotham City’s residents were murdered in 2012, and .0019% of Metropolis' residents were murdered in 2012. Translate these into homicide rates per 100,000 inhabitants, and Gotham's got a higher homicide rate of 2 compared to Metropolis' homicide rate of 1.91. Yes, Metropolis may have had more murders than Gotham, but Metropolis' larger population actually means murder occurred less, which some would consider "safer."

To protect Superman's good name, it's imperative we not only look at the total amount of murders in in a city, but also the homicide rate.

If you were to gather the top homicide rates in America, Chicago's high population makes it doubtful it’d even break the top 10.

Before I prove this, I want to repeat, according to the FBI, these numbers can create "misleading perceptions."
What Is Chicago’s Homicide Rate?

According to the FBI, Chicago’s homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants is 7.1. So, for every 100,000 people living in the Chicago area, roughly 7 were murdered.

Full disclosure: the FBI bases homicide rates off of metropolitan areas. That means the Chicago area isn’t just the 2,708,382 living in the city, but the 9,511,421 living in and around Chicago. The FBI’s statistics actually include Chicago; Naperville; Arlington Heights; Elgin; Gary, Indiana; Lake County; and Kenosha County, Wisconsin.

This is probably making some of you angry.

So why do this? I’m not certain of the exact answer. The FBI does the best to communicate the numbers they pull in from local authorities all over the country. This apparently is no easy feat. Consider this: Chicago is part of Cook County, but Cook County extends past Chicago’s borders. Is it fair to cut out the portions of Cook County that aren’t in the city proper? And how do you do that accurately, if some of the resources that gather crime statistics are dedicated to the whole county?

Not to mention the fact that the city's resources are used by more than its inhabitants. One of my bosses, for example, lives in Indiana. Another lives in a suburb I can't even remember the name of. If they draw on the city's resources and economy every day, how do you determine whether to include them in Chicago statistics?

Whether you like the fact that these statistics include areas outside Chicago or not, you have to admit, Chicago shares an intrinsic relationship — when it comes to economics, crime and much, much more - with the suburbs and towns around it.

If the homicide rate is 7.1 when you include the outlying areas, what is it when you only include the 2,708,382 people in Chicago?

According to my math, the homicide rate for Chicago-proper would be a whopping 18.4.

But this is how it is throughout the whole country. Detroit, New York and countless other locales have had their statistics combined with the surrounding areas. To take those areas out would dramatically change the homicide rates determined by the FBI. If I start figuring out rates for areas not designated by the FBI, it’ll make these numbers the FBI have collected even more inconsistent than they already are.

For the sake of accuracy and consistency, we're going to go ahead and say Chicago’s homicide rate is 7.1.

Yeah, I know, the words "misleading perceptions" are still bouncing around my skull too.

How Does Chicago's Homicide Rate Compare?

Looking through the FBI's statistics, there seems to be at least a dozen places that have higher homicide rates than Chicago.

It seemed unfair to include small areas in this list, so I tried to stick to bigger locales, looking at areas that have more than 200,000 inhabitants.

With that in mind, here's a list of areas that have higher homicide rates than Chicago, in no particular order:

Detroit, MI (Includes the Metropolitan Divisions of Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia and Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills): 10.9

Philadelphia, PA (Includes the Metropolitan Divisions of Camden, NJ; Montgomery County-Bucks County-Chester County, PA; Philadelphia, PA; and Wilmington, DE-MD-NJ): 8.6

Baltimore, MD (Includes Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Harford, Howard, and Queen Anne’s Counties and Baltimore City): 9.5

Stockton, CA (Includes San Joaquin County): 12.7

Memphis, TN (Includes Crittenden County, AR; Benton, DeSoto, Marshall, Tate, and Tunica Counties, MS; and Fayette, Shelby, and Tipton Counties, TN): 11.5

Jackson, MS (Includes Copiah, Hinds, Madison, Rankin, Simpson, and Yazoo Counties): 13.4

Montgomery, AL (Includes Autauga, Elmore, Lowndes, and Montgomery Counties): 13.9

Mobile, AL (Includes Mobile County): 11.1

Birmingham, AL (Includes Bibb, Blount, Chilton, Jefferson, St. Clair, Shelby, and Walker Counties): 9.4

Baton Rouge, LA (Includes Ascension, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Pointe Coupee, St. Helena, West Baton Rouge, and West Feliciana Parishes): 11.8

One locale that keeps coming up, besides Chicago, is Flint, MI. The city proper has 101,632 people, while the city including the surrounding area (Genesee County) has 422,387 people. According to the FBI’s numbers, Flint has the highest homicide rate of 16.3.

So basically, the highest frequency of homicides, according to FBI statistics, occurs in Flint, MI.

I don’t think I’ll be calling them the “murder capital” anytime soon though.

Honestly, the FBI seems pretty spot on when they warn about ranking crime amongst cites in the United States.

Doing so implies a lot about what a city is and isn't. All the areas on their list are vastly different. Chicago is not spread out like Los Angeles. Baton Rouge and Detroit are far from similar when it comes to their respective economies.

Ranking and comparing these places doesn’t seem to do anything but get page views and write sensational headlines.

Calling Chicago, Flint, or anywhere else a "murder capital" doesn’t seem to lessen the violence. For one, it's not an accurate interpretation of the violence in the first place, so it gives no indication of what a city is actually dealing with. For two, the spotlight does a good job of shining light on homicide, but can leave other issues surrounding crime in the dark; unemployment, a lack of social services and a city's economy all suddenly take a back seat in the minds of those only concerned about the number of people shot.

In my opinion, we shouldn't be looking at these numbers and saying, "Aw shucks, Flagstaff, Ariz., had fewer murders than we did!" These numbers are better suited to determine how Chicago has changed. To take a look at ourselves, past and present, in the hopes we can improve.

Even in that context, these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Statistics, especially when you look at just one statistic, are one very small part of a very large picture.




There's a bunch more in the article if you're interested, but the above makes my point.

Source
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VPG
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Pisa-Carp
Truthfully I do not get your point. Chicago has a lot of murders, and they (mayor) does not seem to be able to do anything about it. And will be Mayor as long as he wants to be. That was my point. I never said Chi. was the murder capital. Below is my origional post. Never said murder capital.

The beat goes on. Think the Mayor will be reelected?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/30/marcus-rush-shot_n_4016656.html?ref=topbar
I'M NOT YELLING.........I'M ITALIAN...........THAT'S HOW WE TALK!


"People say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look."
Ronald Reagan, Inaugural, 1971

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somebody else's sock
Middle Aged Carp
Philly has a higher murder rate per capita than Chicago.

Why are you singling out Chicago and its mayor?
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VPG
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somebody else's sock
Oct 1 2013, 11:18 AM
Philly has a higher murder rate per capita than Chicago.

Why are you singling out Chicago and its mayor?
Basiclly He's a slime ball and I don't like him. Why are you defending him and the great job he has done?


Also, tho a Democrat, Philly's Mayor is not a slime ball. Therefore I will not pick on him.
I'M NOT YELLING.........I'M ITALIAN...........THAT'S HOW WE TALK!


"People say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look."
Ronald Reagan, Inaugural, 1971

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Copper
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somebody else's sock
Sep 30 2013, 02:36 PM
Exactly. The numbers can "mean" what you want them to.

The murder capital has always been the city with the most murders within the city limits.

So the city limits and other factors vary - too bad.

Chicago is the murder capital.
The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy
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kluurs
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Fulla-Carp
Chicago recently had a police chief Jody Weis who seemed to be doing a good job of reducing both murders and crime. He was rewarded by being fired. Rahm appointed his guy - and things have gone back to the way they were with things out of control. The reason the other guy was fired was that the rank and file police didn't like him - an important voting block.

Weis was an outsider from Philadelphia - who had 20+ years with the FBI. He didn't fit in - but as the Chicago Tribune said "Under Weis, Chicago's homicide toll dropped to its lowest total since 1965. Superintendents get too much blame and too much credit for murder figures. But let's not forget that a superintendent choice does have life-and-death consequences. Weis accomplished Job One for any superintendent: On his watch, most of our neighborhoods were safer.

Police appointments are typically a hornet's nest. Emanuel could play it safe, especially if he wants to avoid poisoning contract talks with the Fraternal Order of Police. But playing it safe doesn't seem to be his style."
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somebody else's sock
Middle Aged Carp
VPG
Oct 1 2013, 11:57 AM
Basiclly He's a slime ball and I don't like him.
Now we've gotten to the crux of the matter.

BTW, I also think he's a slime ball. Would have saved a lot of time if you just said that to begin with instead of leading with the HuffPo red herring....

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VPG
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Pisa-Carp
You mean that right wing Huff post?
You are defending him, why?
Read Klurrs post above.
I'M NOT YELLING.........I'M ITALIAN...........THAT'S HOW WE TALK!


"People say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look."
Ronald Reagan, Inaugural, 1971

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somebody else's sock
Middle Aged Carp
Let's start over.

You posted a story about a murder in Chicago and asked if the mayor is likely to be re-elected.

I initiated a discussion about the MSM stories regarding Chicago's murders. I noted that while Chicago has the highest number of absolute murders (Copper's definition of "murder capital"), there are more murders committed per capita in other cities (an alternate definition of "murder capital").

You keep bringing up Democrats and Republicans. What does that have to do with the price of tea in Portland?

You keep talking about my defending the mayor of Chicago. Please tell me where I did that.

You said you thought Chicago's mayor was a slime ball. I said I felt the same way.

Your turn.
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Copper
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somebody else's sock
Oct 1 2013, 01:17 PM
I noted that while Chicago has the highest number of absolute murders (Copper's definition of "murder capital"), there are more murders committed per capita in other cities (an alternate definition of "murder capital").

It's not my definition.

It is the commonly accepted definition, go ahead and google it.

Aside from the local cbs affiliate in Chicago it is pretty much unanimous.
The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy
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VPG
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Pisa-Carp
I give up. If all of your above posts are not a defence (or excuse) of the people (Democrats)
that run Chicago, my favorite City in the U. S., then my reading skills have slipped.
I'M NOT YELLING.........I'M ITALIAN...........THAT'S HOW WE TALK!


"People say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look."
Ronald Reagan, Inaugural, 1971

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somebody else's sock
Middle Aged Carp
Once again, we agree. No point in trying to discuss this any further.
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bachophile
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HOLY CARP!!!
I blame George k
"I don't know much about classical music. For years I thought the Goldberg Variations were something Mr. and Mrs. Goldberg did on their wedding night." Woody Allen
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kluurs
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Fulla-Carp
VPG
Oct 1 2013, 01:48 PM
I give up. If all of your above posts are not a defence (or excuse) of the people (Democrats)
that run Chicago, my favorite City in the U. S., then my reading skills have slipped.
The one thing Rahm has been stuck with is a fiscal crisis that doesn't quit. For generations the mayors in Chicago gave away the store to unions in order to assure election. There is virtually no Republican party in all of Cook County. There's nothing left. OTH, Rahm now has had to face a fiscal crisis that could turn Chicago into Detroit - i.e. taxes, fees and cutbacks to address this. While he hasn't done enough, compared to the rest of the Democratic legislators in Illinois, he's practically a Republican.
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