| Welcome to The New Coffee Room. We hope you enjoy your visit. You're currently viewing our forum as a guest. This means you are limited to certain areas of the board and there are some features you can't use. If you join our community, you'll be able to access member-only sections, and use many member-only features such as customizing your profile, sending personal messages, and voting in polls. Registration is simple, fast, and completely free. Join our community! If you're already a member please log in to your account to access all of our features: |
| The debate thread; lets live blog | |
|---|---|
| Tweet Topic Started: Oct 3 2012, 05:16 PM (2,727 Views) | |
| Amanda | Oct 6 2012, 02:57 PM Post #176 |
![]()
Senior Carp
|
I suggest that one reason the bounce is so pronounced is that Team Romney succeeded in establishing a strong negative baseline expectation. Of course, they saw how well he was learning from coaching. To get the most bang for the buck, though, they carefully orchestrated nil expectancy to produce this "Oh, my!" response. I definitely sense Team Obama were caught napping. It never crossed my mind he was setting us up. Never again! But once may be enough. Still wondering why Obama was so milque-toast - not as an excuse, but because I suspect something else was going on behind the scenes, to unbalance him shortly before launching. Romney's people are beyond belief sneaky - not that anything overtly illegal went on (we can't count lying anymore, can we?) - just expert conniving. Need to expand the famous platitude to "All's fair in love, war and politicking/" Obama needs to be springy so as to be ready for whatever he's dished out. That he especially needs to be prepared for any version of The Big Lie, ought to go without saying - yet, he did NOT think on his feet in this regard, last time. Only AFTERWARDS (in interviews), but esprit d'escalier just doesn't do it in POTUS debates. In retrospect, I imagine Obama didn't mention the 47% because it had been leaked that Romney had a super-swift rejoinder ready - maybe even including humor. Why feed him the openings he wanted? |
|
[size=5] We should tolerate eccentricity in others, almost to the point of lunacy, provided no one else is harmed.[/size] "Daily Telegraph", London July 27 2005 | |
![]() |
|
| ivorythumper | Oct 6 2012, 03:11 PM Post #177 |
|
I am so adjective that I verb nouns!
|
|
| The dogma lives loudly within me. | |
![]() |
|
| ivorythumper | Oct 6 2012, 03:13 PM Post #178 |
|
I am so adjective that I verb nouns!
|
What a devious strategy -- Romney and his team systematically trash their own campaign for months so that they can make a great showing at a debate. Do you even take that seriously, Amanda?
|
| The dogma lives loudly within me. | |
![]() |
|
| Amanda | Oct 6 2012, 04:08 PM Post #179 |
![]()
Senior Carp
|
Of course, I don't see this as a months' long strategy! I'm referring to their short-term campaign as the debates were approaching, at creating the negative expectancy I described. And I not only suppose that they deliberately set up this expectancy, I see it as having had a major pay-off. I'd estimate it produced ~ 50% greater "bounce" than they would have gotten if they hadn't warned everyone how poorly Romney was bound to do. Surely, you haven't forgotten all those "announcements"? And what's wrong with it? Did it work or not? Strategy is designed to be effective. I call it clever. It may even have led to a lowering of the guard on the part of Team Obama. Without realizing how/that I was processing it, it certainly made me more vulnerable to on-the-spot shock. |
|
[size=5] We should tolerate eccentricity in others, almost to the point of lunacy, provided no one else is harmed.[/size] "Daily Telegraph", London July 27 2005 | |
![]() |
|
| Kincaid | Oct 6 2012, 04:47 PM Post #180 |
|
HOLY CARP!!!
|
But Obama had also been trying to lower expectations on himself - so shouldn't that keep them both "even"? Simplest explanation is that Obama believed in himself and was not prepared. He has spent almost four years insulated in one of the biggest "yes man" environments there is. He wasn't ready. I suspect somewhere down deep he also knows that even if he loses the race he is set for life as the leader of the Black liberal movement, if not the Democrat party. He may be longing to start hauling in those huge speaking fees he'll be getting when he is no longer the President. |
| Kincaid - disgusted Republican Partisan since 2006. | |
![]() |
|
| George K | Oct 6 2012, 05:01 PM Post #181 |
|
Finally
|
I'm still trying to find the "announcement" where Romney tried to lower expectations. This was the only story I could find:
Here is the "Lower Expectations" Memo:
Reading it without CNN's spin, I read these points: 1) Obama is a good public 2) He has mano a mano debate experience 3) Voters believe that Obama will do better 4) Obama beat McCain in the debates 5) Obama will attack and Romney's up to the task of rebutting So, where is the "lower expectations" part? |
|
A guide to GKSR: Click "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08 Nothing is as effective as homeopathy. I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles. - Klaus, 4/29/18 | |
![]() |
|
| Amanda | Oct 6 2012, 05:44 PM Post #182 |
![]()
Senior Carp
|
Kincaid, I didn't encounter any Obama expectation-lowering comments to tally in some kind of comparison. As for your comments on his being set for life as leader of the Black liberal movement, I don't think there is any such thing. Certainly, there's nothing that even remotely compares to the power he commands as POTUS. Likewise, about the speaking fees. But you DO suggest something interesting - which I ran into elsewhere. The notion that he's no longer very enthused about the job. That may be so, even without it's being altogether conscious. This item (below) speaks of that as perhaps behind his relatively lack-luster performance - especially compared to his campaigning four years ago. It can't be all that much fun, anymore. Ever since he was confronted by the awful knowledge of what he was really inheriting, he's aged far beyond his actual years. http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes...amas-enthusiasm-gap/ . |
|
[size=5] We should tolerate eccentricity in others, almost to the point of lunacy, provided no one else is harmed.[/size] "Daily Telegraph", London July 27 2005 | |
![]() |
|
| jon-nyc | Oct 6 2012, 05:59 PM Post #183 |
|
Cheers
|
Both sides always try to lower expectations before a debate when talking to the press. Both campaigns tried this time, as no doubt they will on the 16th. |
| In my defense, I was left unsupervised. | |
![]() |
|
| George K | Oct 6 2012, 06:00 PM Post #184 |
|
Finally
|
Team Obama lowers expectations for first debate
And there's This:
See? Now that's lowering expectations.
|
|
A guide to GKSR: Click "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08 Nothing is as effective as homeopathy. I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles. - Klaus, 4/29/18 | |
![]() |
|
| Amanda | Oct 6 2012, 06:01 PM Post #185 |
![]()
Senior Carp
|
@ George. Yes, it's Beth Myer's report to "Romney surrogates" that I was referring to, although it appeared with commentary in numerous contexts - thus making the original warning appear like several (e.g. Yahoo, the New York Times and Politco). And the headlines pulled from it, were also striking - AND not from partisan sites (e.g. Yahoo News was typical: "Romney Camp Lowers Bar for Debates, Politico: "Myers: Obama an oratorical Hercules") I call that a powerful warning, especially since she is THE campaign spokesperson, and also excerpting the following (which was highlighted in every report):
She went on to caution that the election would, however, NOT be decided by the debates themselves. To me, this made her cautionary notes all the more persuasive, as they were what she would HAVE to believe/claim, if she truly expected Romney's showing to be significantly worse than Obama's. Note too, that after the fact, every news service is anxious to put a different spin on their reporting leading up to the debates, so as not to look as if they were taken in by this spin. I was. And as I commented to Kinkaid, I saw no similar reports from Camp Obama (warning not to expect much). I see such claims now, but saw none - and I had no reason to be on the alert for either bias. There IS such a phenomenon as retroactive spin, not to promote a given outcome but simply to make the prognosticator look more prescient. I really don't know why there is all the kerfuffle about this strategy. It was very effective - and yes, it existed. . |
|
[size=5] We should tolerate eccentricity in others, almost to the point of lunacy, provided no one else is harmed.[/size] "Daily Telegraph", London July 27 2005 | |
![]() |
|
| Amanda | Oct 6 2012, 06:08 PM Post #186 |
![]()
Senior Carp
|
The Myers comments were addressed to Romney's stalwarts, and their content seems well designed at preparing them for a poor performance - with, however, eventual victory to look forward to. I wasn't looking for either spin, but only encountered Camp Romney's VERY striking praise for Obama. This went far beyond any excuse-making for their guy. |
|
[size=5] We should tolerate eccentricity in others, almost to the point of lunacy, provided no one else is harmed.[/size] "Daily Telegraph", London July 27 2005 | |
![]() |
|
| Amanda | Oct 6 2012, 06:15 PM Post #187 |
![]()
Senior Carp
|
@Kincaid. Correction of link there (which is broken) http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/04/obamas-enthusiasm-gap/ |
|
[size=5] We should tolerate eccentricity in others, almost to the point of lunacy, provided no one else is harmed.[/size] "Daily Telegraph", London July 27 2005 | |
![]() |
|
| Mikhailoh | Oct 6 2012, 06:21 PM Post #188 |
|
If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
|
Jesus. |
|
Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
![]() |
|
| QuantumIvory | Oct 6 2012, 06:24 PM Post #189 |
|
Senior Carp
|
Stop the world-I want to get off. |
|
"I regard consciousness as fundamental. We cannot get behind consciousness." -Max Planck | |
![]() |
|
| VPG | Oct 6 2012, 06:41 PM Post #190 |
|
Pisa-Carp
|
The following is part of a comment to the article Amanda posted. And I think that's a supporter. I found Obama's lackluster debate performance utterly selfish, selfish to the people working 20-hour days in his White House, selfish to supporters filling his campaign coffers with their hard-earned dollars, selfish to those who helped him prepare for the debate, selfish to his campaign volunteers |
|
I'M NOT YELLING.........I'M ITALIAN...........THAT'S HOW WE TALK! "People say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look." Ronald Reagan, Inaugural, 1971 | |
![]() |
|
| Mikhailoh | Oct 6 2012, 06:44 PM Post #191 |
|
If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
|
Agreed, Vince. In a word? Slacker. |
|
Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
![]() |
|
| John D'Oh | Oct 6 2012, 06:48 PM Post #192 |
|
MAMIL
|
So many idiots, so few bullets. |
| What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket? | |
![]() |
|
| VPG | Oct 6 2012, 06:55 PM Post #193 |
|
Pisa-Carp
|
You know, if Sarah Palin said that she would be accused of promoting assassination, you know the cross hairs thing? You really didn't mean that did you John? |
|
I'M NOT YELLING.........I'M ITALIAN...........THAT'S HOW WE TALK! "People say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look." Ronald Reagan, Inaugural, 1971 | |
![]() |
|
| John D'Oh | Oct 6 2012, 08:26 PM Post #194 |
|
MAMIL
|
If Sarah Palin said it, she would be accused of promoting assisted suicide, which would lose the Terri Schiavo vote. |
| What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket? | |
![]() |
|
| Larry | Oct 6 2012, 09:00 PM Post #195 |
![]()
Mmmmmmm, pie!
|
Amanda, you're trying too hard to make excuses for Obama. What you're stringing together is ridiculous. Here is the reason Obama didn't do well, Amanda. Obama is a narcissist, he's lazy, he's nowhere near as intelligent as you liberals think he is, he was in a debate that focused on the economy, he has no clue about economics, his track record is one of utter and total failure. He is dumber than a box of hair without a teleprompter feeding him things someone else wrote for him to read, and he was matched up against a man who, contrary to what your liberal friends keep telling you, is a superb businessman who knows what he's talking about. In short Amanda, he lost the debate because he's unqualified, and he was debating a man who *is* qualified. |
|
Of the Pokatwat Tribe | |
![]() |
|
| Axtremus | Oct 7 2012, 06:14 AM Post #196 |
|
HOLY CARP!!!
|
538 Blog: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/06/oct-6-romney-maintains-poll-momentum/?gwh=5B6E7A11261C3D88703B2F53055B6F41 "Romney Maintains Poll Momentum" |
![]() |
|
| Axtremus | Oct 7 2012, 06:28 AM Post #197 |
|
HOLY CARP!!!
|
SNL explains Obama's (and Jim Lehrer's) performance: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/06/snl-obama-debate-performance_n_1945762.html Watch the video.
|
![]() |
|
| Mikhailoh | Oct 7 2012, 06:43 AM Post #198 |
|
If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
|
Axelrod is on Face The Nation. His defense? It's still Bush's fault. |
|
Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
![]() |
|
| Jolly | Oct 7 2012, 07:47 AM Post #199 |
![]()
Geaux Tigers!
|
I suspect Obama will do better in the next debate. Presidents have a natural advantage when discussing foreign affairs. OTOH, most Americans put less emphasis on them, than national affairs. It's still the economy, stupid. |
| The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros | |
![]() |
|
|
|
| « Previous Topic · The New Coffee Room · Next Topic » |










6:13 AM Jul 11