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The debate thread; lets live blog
Topic Started: Oct 3 2012, 05:16 PM (2,727 Views)
Amanda
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I suggest that one reason the bounce is so pronounced is that Team Romney succeeded in establishing a strong negative baseline expectation. Of course, they saw how well he was learning from coaching. To get the most bang for the buck, though, they carefully orchestrated nil expectancy to produce this "Oh, my!" response.

I definitely sense Team Obama were caught napping. It never crossed my mind he was setting us up. Never again! But once may be enough.
Still wondering why Obama was so milque-toast - not as an excuse, but because I suspect something else was going on behind the scenes, to unbalance him shortly before launching. Romney's people are beyond belief sneaky - not that anything overtly illegal went on (we can't count lying anymore, can we?) - just expert conniving. Need to expand the famous platitude to "All's fair in love, war and politicking/"

Obama needs to be springy so as to be ready for whatever he's dished out. That he especially needs to be prepared for any version of The Big Lie, ought to go without saying - yet, he did NOT think on his feet in this regard, last time. Only AFTERWARDS (in interviews), but esprit d'escalier just doesn't do it in POTUS debates.

In retrospect, I imagine Obama didn't mention the 47% because it had been leaked that Romney had a super-swift rejoinder ready - maybe even including humor. Why feed him the openings he wanted?
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ivorythumper
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I am so adjective that I verb nouns!
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The dogma lives loudly within me.
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ivorythumper
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I am so adjective that I verb nouns!
Amanda
Oct 6 2012, 02:57 PM
I suggest that one reason the bounce is so pronounced is that Team Romney succeeded in establishing a strong negative baseline expectation. Of course, they saw how well he was learning from coaching. To get the most bang for the buck, though, they carefully orchestrated nil expectancy to produce this "Oh, my!" response.
What a devious strategy -- Romney and his team systematically trash their own campaign for months so that they can make a great showing at a debate.

Do you even take that seriously, Amanda? :lol2: :lol2:
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Amanda
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ivorythumper
Oct 6 2012, 03:13 PM
Amanda
Oct 6 2012, 02:57 PM
I suggest that one reason the bounce is so pronounced is that Team Romney succeeded in establishing a strong negative baseline expectation. Of course, they saw how well he was learning from coaching. To get the most bang for the buck, though, they carefully orchestrated nil expectancy to produce this "Oh, my!" response.
What a devious strategy -- Romney and his team systematically trash their own campaign for months so that they can make a great showing at a debate.

Do you even take that seriously, Amanda? :lol2: :lol2:
Of course, I don't see this as a months' long strategy!

I'm referring to their short-term campaign as the debates were approaching, at creating the negative expectancy I described.

And I not only suppose that they deliberately set up this expectancy, I see it as having had a major pay-off. I'd estimate it produced ~ 50% greater "bounce" than they would have gotten if they hadn't warned everyone how poorly Romney was bound to do.

Surely, you haven't forgotten all those "announcements"?
And what's wrong with it? Did it work or not? Strategy is designed to be effective. I call it clever. It may even have led to a lowering of the guard on the part of Team Obama. Without realizing how/that I was processing it, it certainly made me more vulnerable to on-the-spot shock.

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Kincaid
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HOLY CARP!!!
But Obama had also been trying to lower expectations on himself - so shouldn't that keep them both "even"? Simplest explanation is that Obama believed in himself and was not prepared. He has spent almost four years insulated in one of the biggest "yes man" environments there is. He wasn't ready.

I suspect somewhere down deep he also knows that even if he loses the race he is set for life as the leader of the Black liberal movement, if not the Democrat party. He may be longing to start hauling in those huge speaking fees he'll be getting when he is no longer the President.
Kincaid - disgusted Republican Partisan since 2006.
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George K
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Finally
I'm still trying to find the "announcement" where Romney tried to lower expectations.

This was the only story I could find:

Quote:
 
In a memo about the debates distributed to campaign surrogates and provided to CNN on Thursday, longtime Romney adviser Beth Myers outlines a series of reasons why the president is likely to emerge as the winner of the first debate.

Here is the "Lower Expectations" Memo:
Quote:
 
From: Beth Myers, Senior Adviser
To: Interested Parties
Date: September 27, 2012
Re: 2012 Presidential Debates

In a matter of days, Governor Romney and President Obama will meet on the presidential debate stage. President Obama is a universally-acclaimed public speaker and has substantial debate experience under his belt. However, the record he's compiled over the last four years – higher unemployment, lower incomes, rising energy costs, and a national debt spiraling out of control – means this will be a close election right up to November 6th.

Between now and then, President Obama and Governor Romney will debate three times. While Governor Romney has the issues and the facts on his side, President Obama enters these contests with a significant advantage on a number of fronts.

Voters already believe – by a 25-point margin – that President Obama is likely to do a better job in these debates. Given President Obama's natural gifts and extensive seasoning under the bright lights of the debate stage, this is unsurprising. President Obama is a uniquely gifted speaker, and is widely regarded as one of the most talented political communicators in modern history. This will be the eighth one-on-one presidential debate of his political career. For Mitt Romney, it will be his first.

Four years ago, Barack Obama faced John McCain on the debate stage. According to Gallup, voters judged him the winner of each debate by double-digit margins, and their polling showed he won one debate by an astounding 33-point margin. In the 2008 primary, he faced Hillary Clinton, another formidable opponent – debating her one-on-one numerous times and coming out ahead. The takeaway? Not only has President Obama gained valuable experience in these debates, he also won them comfortably.

But what must President Obama overcome? His record. Based on the campaign he's run so far, it's clear that President Obama will use his ample rhetorical gifts and debating experience to one end: attacking Mitt Romney. Since he won't – and can't – talk about his record, he'll talk about Mitt Romney. We fully expect a 90-minute attack ad aimed at tearing down his opponent. If President Obama is as negative as we expect, he will have missed an opportunity to let the American people know his vision for the next four years and the policies he'd pursue. That's not an opportunity Mitt Romney will pass up. He will talk about the big choice in this election – the choice between President Obama's government-centric vision and Mitt Romney's vision for an opportunity society with more jobs, higher take-home pay, a better-educated workforce, and millions of Americans lifted out of poverty into the middle class.

This election will not be decided by the debates, however. It will be decided by the American people. Regardless of who comes out on top in these debates, they know we can't afford another four years like the last four years. And they will ultimately choose a better future by electing Mitt Romney to be our next president.

Reading it without CNN's spin, I read these points:

1) Obama is a good public reader of speeches speaker
2) He has mano a mano debate experience
3) Voters believe that Obama will do better
4) Obama beat McCain in the debates
5) Obama will attack and Romney's up to the task of rebutting

So, where is the "lower expectations" part?
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Amanda
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Kincaid
Oct 6 2012, 04:47 PM
But Obama had also been trying to lower expectations on himself - so shouldn't that keep them both "even"? Simplest explanation is that Obama believed in himself and was not prepared. He has spent almost four years insulated in one of the biggest "yes man" environments there is. He wasn't ready.

I suspect somewhere down deep he also knows that even if he loses the race he is set for life as the leader of the Black liberal movement, if not the Democrat party. He may be longing to start hauling in those huge speaking fees he'll be getting when he is no longer the President.
Kincaid, I didn't encounter any Obama expectation-lowering comments to tally in some kind of comparison.

As for your comments on his being set for life as leader of the Black liberal movement, I don't think there is any such thing. Certainly, there's nothing that even remotely compares to the power he commands as POTUS. Likewise, about the speaking fees.

But you DO suggest something interesting - which I ran into elsewhere. The notion that he's no longer very enthused about the job. That may be so, even without it's being altogether conscious. This item (below) speaks of that as perhaps behind his relatively lack-luster performance - especially compared to his campaigning four years ago.

It can't be all that much fun, anymore. Ever since he was confronted by the awful knowledge of what he was really inheriting, he's aged far beyond his actual years.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes...amas-enthusiasm-gap/

.
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jon-nyc
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Cheers
Both sides always try to lower expectations before a debate when talking to the press. Both campaigns tried this time, as no doubt they will on the 16th.
In my defense, I was left unsupervised.
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George K
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Finally
Amanda
Oct 6 2012, 05:44 PM
I didn't encounter any Obama expectation-lowering comments to tally in some kind of comparison.
Team Obama lowers expectations for first debate
Quote:
 
Even the president himself is praising Romney as a “good debater” while casting himself as “OK” even though the electorate thinks that the incumbent should win the contest hands down.

Campaign officials are echoing that sentiment.

“We’re taking this debate very seriously,” Obama deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter told CNN’s Piers Morgan Tonight over the weekend. “We know there’s a certain expectation on our side. We also know what history tells us, that challengers normally win the first debate just by the fact they’re standing on the stage with the president. That elevates them and they normally come into these things as underdogs. So we’re coming into this debate very realistic, that Mitt Romney is likely to win, if he plays his cards right.”

Obama strategist David Plouffe said much the same on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday.

“Challengers tend to do really well in debates. That’s been the history. We’ve believed all along that Gov. Romney probably has more benefit out of this debate, potentially, than we do,” Plouffe said.


And there's This:
Quote:
 
President Obama's staff has fretted aloud that their man is too busy to properly prep for the showdown in Denver, while Mitt Romney's team is reminding voters that the GOP hopeful will be standing across the stage from a "universally-acclaimed public speaker" in Obama.

See? Now that's lowering expectations. :lol2:
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Amanda
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@ George.

Yes, it's Beth Myer's report to "Romney surrogates" that I was referring to, although it appeared with commentary in numerous contexts - thus making the original warning appear like several (e.g. Yahoo, the New York Times and Politco).

And the headlines pulled from it, were also striking - AND not from partisan sites (e.g. Yahoo News was typical: "Romney Camp Lowers Bar for Debates, Politico: "Myers: Obama an oratorical Hercules")

I call that a powerful warning, especially since she is THE campaign spokesperson, and also excerpting the following (which was highlighted in every report):

Quote:
 
President Obama is a universally-acclaimed public speaker and has substantial debate experience under his belt....Beyond his "natural gifts" for oratory, Meyers argues that Obama has "substantial debate experience under his belt."
"This will be the eighth one-on-one presidential debate of his political career. For Mitt Romney, it will be his first," she says. Obama, in her words, has had "extensive seasoning under the bright lights of the debate stage."


She went on to caution that the election would, however, NOT be decided by the debates themselves. To me, this made her cautionary notes all the more persuasive, as they were what she would HAVE to believe/claim, if she truly expected Romney's showing to be significantly worse than Obama's. Note too, that after the fact, every news service is anxious to put a different spin on their reporting leading up to the debates, so as not to look as if they were taken in by this spin.

I was. And as I commented to Kinkaid, I saw no similar reports from Camp Obama (warning not to expect much). I see such claims now, but saw none - and I had no reason to be on the alert for either bias. There IS such a phenomenon as retroactive spin, not to promote a given outcome but simply to make the prognosticator look more prescient.

I really don't know why there is all the kerfuffle about this strategy. It was very effective - and yes, it existed.

.
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Amanda
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jon-nyc
Oct 6 2012, 05:59 PM
Both sides always try to lower expectations before a debate when talking to the press. Both campaigns tried this time, as no doubt they will on the 16th.
The Myers comments were addressed to Romney's stalwarts, and their content seems well designed at preparing them for a poor performance - with, however, eventual victory to look forward to.

I wasn't looking for either spin, but only encountered Camp Romney's VERY striking praise for Obama. This went far beyond any excuse-making for their guy.
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Amanda
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@Kincaid. Correction of link there (which is broken)

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/04/obamas-enthusiasm-gap/
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Mikhailoh
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QuantumIvory
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VPG
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The following is part of a comment to the article Amanda posted.
And I think that's a supporter.


I found Obama's lackluster debate performance utterly selfish, selfish to the people working 20-hour days in his White House, selfish to supporters filling his campaign coffers with their hard-earned dollars, selfish to those who helped him prepare for the debate, selfish to his campaign volunteers
I'M NOT YELLING.........I'M ITALIAN...........THAT'S HOW WE TALK!


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Mikhailoh
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
Agreed, Vince. In a word? Slacker.
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John D'Oh
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MAMIL
So many idiots, so few bullets.
What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket?
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VPG
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Pisa-Carp
John D'Oh
Oct 6 2012, 06:48 PM
So many idiots, so few bullets.
You know, if Sarah Palin said that she would be accused of promoting assassination, you know the cross hairs thing?
You really didn't mean that did you John?
I'M NOT YELLING.........I'M ITALIAN...........THAT'S HOW WE TALK!


"People say that we're in a time when there are no heroes, they just don't know where to look."
Ronald Reagan, Inaugural, 1971

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John D'Oh
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MAMIL
If Sarah Palin said it, she would be accused of promoting assisted suicide, which would lose the Terri Schiavo vote.
What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket?
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Larry
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Mmmmmmm, pie!
Amanda, you're trying too hard to make excuses for Obama. What you're stringing together is ridiculous.

Here is the reason Obama didn't do well, Amanda. Obama is a narcissist, he's lazy, he's nowhere near as intelligent as you liberals think he is, he was in a debate that focused on the economy, he has no clue about economics, his track record is one of utter and total failure. He is dumber than a box of hair without a teleprompter feeding him things someone else wrote for him to read, and he was matched up against a man who, contrary to what your liberal friends keep telling you, is a superb businessman who knows what he's talking about.

In short Amanda, he lost the debate because he's unqualified, and he was debating a man who *is* qualified.

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Axtremus
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HOLY CARP!!!
538 Blog:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/06/oct-6-romney-maintains-poll-momentum/?gwh=5B6E7A11261C3D88703B2F53055B6F41

"Romney Maintains Poll Momentum"
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Axtremus
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HOLY CARP!!!
SNL explains Obama's (and Jim Lehrer's) performance:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/06/snl-obama-debate-performance_n_1945762.html

Watch the video. :D
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Mikhailoh
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
Axelrod is on Face The Nation. His defense? It's still Bush's fault.
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Jolly
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Geaux Tigers!
I suspect Obama will do better in the next debate.

Presidents have a natural advantage when discussing foreign affairs. OTOH, most Americans put less emphasis on them, than national affairs.

It's still the economy, stupid.
The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros
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