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| Why Gay Marriage is Inevitable; ... in a word, youth | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Feb 13 2012, 11:00 AM (789 Views) | |
| kenny | Feb 13 2012, 11:00 AM Post #1 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-klarman-gay-marriage-and-the-courts-20120212,0,7285590.story By Michael Klarman February 12, 2012 The year 2012 is shaping up as a big one for same-sex marriage. Last week, the Washington state Legislature passed a bill allowing gay marriage, and legislatures in Maryland and New Jersey may follow suit shortly (though New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has promised a veto). North Carolina and Minnesota are conducting referendums this year on constitutional amendments to bar gay marriage, and Maine is likely to conduct a referendum on legalizing it. On Tuesday, the U.S. 9th Court of Appeals reminded us that courts too have something to say on the subject. In a case challenging the constitutionality of California's Proposition 8, that court ruled in favor of gay marriage. Because its ruling was so narrow that it may not be applicable outside California, theU.S. Supreme Court may decide not to review this decision. Eventually, though, the Supreme Court will take a gay marriage case. How might the justices decide it when they do? As recently as seven or eight years ago, there might not have been a single justice prepared to declare a federal constitutional right to same-sex marriage. Opinion polls then showed that Americans opposed gay marriage by a 2-1 margin, and a Massachusetts court decision declaring a right to gay marriage under the state constitution produced an enormous political backlash in 2004, with 13 states enacting constitutional bans. Even liberal justices such as Ruth Bader Ginsburg andStephen G. Breyer, who probably sympathize with gay marriage, might well have been wary of venturing too far in advance of public opinion and stoking further political backlash. The situation has since changed dramatically. Opinion polls now consistently show that a slender majority of Americans support gay marriage. State supreme courts in California, Connecticut and Iowa have ruled in its favor, and legislatures in five states have enacted gay-marriage statutes. If liberal judges on state supreme courts now regularly support gay marriage, liberal justices on the U.S. Supreme Court are likely to do so as well. A number of constitutional issues today — abortion, affirmative action, campaign finance reform and the death penalty — divide the Supreme Court 5 to 4, with Justice Anthony Kennedy providing the critical swing vote. How might Kennedy approach the gay-marriage issue? Kennedy often converts dominant social mores into constitutional commands to bring outlier states into line with the majority. In this case, the states that allow gay marriage are in a distinct minority, suggesting he might be reluctant to identify such a constitutional right. On the other hand, Kennedy has written the court's only two decisions supporting gay rights, and he comes from a part of the country — Northern California — where support for gay marriage is strong. Moreover, Kennedy seems especially attuned to his historical legacy, and if gay marriage is inevitable, then a court ruling in its favor will probably be seen one day as the Brown vs. Board of Education of the gay rights movement. Why is gay marriage inevitable? First, the basic insight of the gay rights movement over the last four decades has proved powerfully correct: As more gays and lesbians have come out of the closet, the social environment has become more gay friendly. In turn, as the social environment has become more hospitable, more gays and lesbians have felt free to come out of the closet. This social dynamic is powerfully reinforcing and unlikely to be reversed. One factor that most strongly predicts support for gay equality is knowing someone who is gay. As more gays and lesbians come out of the closet, more parents, children, siblings, friends, neighbors and co-workers know or love someone who is gay. Because few people favor discrimination against those they know and love, every gay person coming out of the closet creates more supporters of gay equality. The number of Americans reporting that they know somebody who is openly gay tripled between 1985 and 2000, reaching 75%. One study in 2004 found that among those who reported knowing someone who is gay, 65% favored either gay marriage or civil unions, while only 35% of those who reported not knowing any gay people supported them. A second reason that gay marriage seems inevitable is that young people so strongly support it. One study by political scientists found a gap of 44 percentage points between the oldest and youngest survey respondents in their attitudes toward gay marriage. A 2011 poll found that 70% of those age 18 to 34 supported gay marriage. It is hard to imagine a scenario in which young people's support for gay marriage dissipates as they grow older. The trend in favor of gay marriage has accelerated dramatically in the last three years. Before 2009, the annual rate of increase in support for gay marriage was about 1.5 percentage points, but since then it has been closer to 4 percentage points. Statistical models predict that in another dozen years, every state will have a majority in favor of gay marriage. In recent years, many conservatives have begun to acknowledge the inevitability of gay marriage, even as they continue to strongly oppose it. In March 2011, Albert Mohler, president of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, said on a Christian radio program that "it is clear that something like same-sex marriage … is going to become normalized, legalized and recognized in the culture." "It's time," he continued, "for Christians to start thinking about how we're going to deal with that." That a particular social change may be inevitable, given certain background conditions, does not mean that opponents will cease fighting it. White Southerners continued to massively resist Brown long after most of them came to believe that school desegregation was inevitable. Similarly, those who believe that gay marriage contravenes God's will are not likely to stop fighting it simply because their prospects of success are diminishing. Moreover, because religious conservatives are both intensely opposed to gay marriage and highly mobilized politically, they are likely for the next several years to continue exerting significant influence over Republican politicians who need their support to win primary elections. Although the ultimate outcome of the contest over gay marriage no longer seems in doubt, plenty of fighting remains until that battle is over. Michael J. Klarman is a professor at Harvard Law School and the author of "Same-Sex Marriage Litigation and Political Backlash," to be published this fall. |
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| Kincaid | Feb 13 2012, 12:03 PM Post #2 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Youth yes, but also the willingness of gays to come out to friends and family. Article is, I think, spot on. |
| Kincaid - disgusted Republican Partisan since 2006. | |
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| ivorythumper | Feb 13 2012, 12:22 PM Post #3 |
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I am so adjective that I verb nouns!
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Of course, which is why the gays have systematically targeted primary and secondary school education as part of their propaganda and marketing campaign. |
| The dogma lives loudly within me. | |
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| Kincaid | Feb 13 2012, 12:24 PM Post #4 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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not that there's anything wrong with that. |
| Kincaid - disgusted Republican Partisan since 2006. | |
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| Horace | Feb 13 2012, 12:41 PM Post #5 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Of all the nonsense we're fed as kids, the notion that with age comes wisdom is maybe the most abundantly absurd one. For that matter, the notion that teenagers "think they know it all" is right up there. I never noticed that in myself of any of my friends growing up. From my current perspective, it seems much more likely that that is simple projection, adults who think they know it all not being able to deal with a young person's natural inclination to sift through their own perceptions and try to arrive at their own legitimate opinions. |
| As a good person, I implore you to do as I, a good person, do. Be good. Do NOT be bad. If you see bad, end bad. End it in yourself, and end it in others. By any means necessary, the good must conquer the bad. Good people know this. Do you know this? Are you good? | |
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| Copper | Feb 13 2012, 12:59 PM Post #6 |
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Shortstop
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So if a gay guy comes out who let's say posts hateful stuff in a web forum would that be a -1 for the cause? |
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The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy | |
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| The 89th Key | Feb 13 2012, 03:03 PM Post #7 |
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It's definitely inevitable. Mostly throughout the blue states first, then slowly throughout the red. |
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| Mikhailoh | Feb 13 2012, 03:58 PM Post #8 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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ACK! TEH GHEYS! TEH GHEYS! ![]() ![]() |
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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| jon-nyc | Feb 13 2012, 04:52 PM Post #9 |
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Cheers
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Must've been reading the Church's playbook. |
| In my defense, I was left unsupervised. | |
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| John D'Oh | Feb 13 2012, 05:13 PM Post #10 |
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MAMIL
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Ouch!
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| What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket? | |
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| Dewey | Feb 13 2012, 05:45 PM Post #11 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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The article's pretty much got it. As more people come to realize that people that they know, work with, like, and love, are gay - because of their bravery of coming out, and showing the world that they're just as "normal," for better and worse, as straight people - people's attitudes regarding tolerance and discrimination, and even modification of their religious understandings, will continue to shift. It's one thing to make an abstract case for discrimination or intolerance. It's much more difficult when it isn't abstract, and the person being hurt is a good friend, a respected coworker, or a family member. And while education - I wouldn't call it propaganda, and definitely not marketing - helps to change attitudes, I really think the most dramatic change in attitudes comes out of the increasing one-on-one personal relationships and interactions that we all have with gays and lesbians. I have tremendous respect for any gay or lesbian person who risks the possibility of losing or damaging relationships with family and friends, and comes out of the closet and lets the world know who they are. Each one of them who does that hammers another nail in the coffin of old stereotypes, fears, and intolerance. They are very brave people. |
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"By nature, i prefer brevity." - John Calvin, Institutes of the Christian Religion, p. 685. "Never waste your time trying to explain yourself to people who are committed to misunderstanding you." - Anonymous "Oh sure, every once in a while a turd floated by, but other than that it was just fine." - Joe A., 2011 I'll answer your other comments later, but my primary priority for the rest of the evening is to get drunk." - Klaus, 12/31/14 | |
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| ivorythumper | Feb 13 2012, 07:27 PM Post #12 |
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I am so adjective that I verb nouns!
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Indeed! The Catholic Church has long established grade schools and high schools and colleges for the purposes of education -- often providing free education to poor and disadvantaged children. It's good that you acknowledge the Church's contribution to society in this regard. |
| The dogma lives loudly within me. | |
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| Jolly | Feb 13 2012, 07:45 PM Post #13 |
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Geaux Tigers!
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Isn't it 30 for 30 on referendums banning gay marriage? Isn't Washington gearing up for one? |
| The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros | |
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| Kincaid | Feb 13 2012, 07:58 PM Post #14 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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I'm sure they will. I am not sure which way the vote would go. I am wondering if they will, a la Gavin Newsom, be able to get a bunch of marriages done so that they can then argue that it is not right to undo them. |
| Kincaid - disgusted Republican Partisan since 2006. | |
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| Aqua Letifer | Feb 13 2012, 09:21 PM Post #15 |
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ZOOOOOM!
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How do you figure? Wisdom comes from experience, and one gains experience through the years. I don't know of any shortcut. Of course some people stagnate, but if wisdom is to be gained at all, time most certainly must play a factor.
I suggest you hang out with more teens. This is certainly true for some of them. And yes, the uncomfortable fact is that adults by and large have more experience than teenagers and so generally speaking they are better equipped to make reasonable judgments. If teens were anywhere near as responsible as adults then 1) the drinking and driving ages would be lower, 2) the number of teen deaths related to irresponsible actions would be far lower and 3) I would have had a much more boring adolescence. |
| I cite irreconcilable differences. | |
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| Horace | Feb 13 2012, 09:54 PM Post #16 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Just some random nonsense, mostly kidding around. |
| As a good person, I implore you to do as I, a good person, do. Be good. Do NOT be bad. If you see bad, end bad. End it in yourself, and end it in others. By any means necessary, the good must conquer the bad. Good people know this. Do you know this? Are you good? | |
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| Axtremus | Feb 14 2012, 04:49 AM Post #17 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Wisdom is called upon when one lacks the capacity or the courage to reason. |
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| Mikhailoh | Feb 14 2012, 04:54 AM Post #18 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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So very wrong. One calls upon wisdom to guide one's reasoning. |
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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| Aqua Letifer | Feb 14 2012, 04:55 AM Post #19 |
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ZOOOOOM!
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ayup. |
| I cite irreconcilable differences. | |
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| John D'Oh | Feb 14 2012, 05:18 AM Post #20 |
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MAMIL
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Wisdom is a rather pompous word used by old people to try and justify them telling young people why they're wrong. What we're actually doing is using our experience to aid in the decision making process. Whether that experience has led to better decision making is open to assessment on a case by case basis, based on my There's a tendency among some older people who become set in their thinking so that they appear to be incapable of accepting change - not really a mark of wisdom. |
| What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket? | |
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| Mikhailoh | Feb 14 2012, 05:26 AM Post #21 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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Some young people are like that too. I think it is more a matter of personality than age. |
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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| Moonbat | Feb 14 2012, 05:47 AM Post #22 |
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Pisa-Carp
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Saying with age comes wisdom is like saying with age comes knowledge of relativistic mechanics, whilst it's true it takes time to gain knowledge of relativistic mechanics, passage of time does not automatically lead to it. Oh and whilst time must be a factor there is a short cut. Our civilisation is built upon it. Humans don't need to experience things themselves to learn from them, we can inherit the thoughts of others. We can read. We can listen. We can watch. |
| Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem | |
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| John D'Oh | Feb 14 2012, 05:52 AM Post #23 |
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MAMIL
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I'm sitting on the shoulders of pygmies. |
| What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket? | |
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| George K | Feb 14 2012, 05:53 AM Post #24 |
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Finally
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Bushwa. Ask anyone who has practiced his craft for 20 or 30 years if he had the wisdom when beginning that he does now. Of course, as you say, there's much to be learned from word of mouth, reading, etc. But, there are things that you learn by virtue of seeing with your own eyes, by virtue of touching with your own hands that all the reading, lectures, videos etc will never, ever impart. There are things that are immeasurable that come into play in decision making that are not in the books, in the videos and the conversations. There's a "bigger picture" that nothing can convey other than your own experience. |
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A guide to GKSR: Click "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08 Nothing is as effective as homeopathy. I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles. - Klaus, 4/29/18 | |
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| John D'Oh | Feb 14 2012, 05:59 AM Post #25 |
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MAMIL
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Not always true. To take an extreme example, Einstein was only 26 when he published breakthrough papers in the photoelectric effect, Brownian motion, special relativity, and the equivalence of matter and energy. After 30 years he wasn't doing anything comparable. Sometimes energy is a pretty good substitute for decrepit experience. |
| What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket? | |
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12:53 AM Jul 11