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Nice chart!; GOP Primary candidates' support levels over time
Topic Started: Dec 1 2011, 07:55 PM (356 Views)
Axtremus
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HOLY CARP!!!
(hat tip John Galt)

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The 89th Key
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We'll see if Gingrich will be the first to KEEP his rise in the polls. So far, everyone who has had a sudden increase, loses it about 6-8 weeks later.
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jon-nyc
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Cheers
I figured his bounce would be lower but more sustainable. My reasoning was that he was such a known quantity he wouldn't get the whole herd of folks looking for new and fresh, since he's not that. The flip side though (so went my thinking) was that those that went to him would be stickier, in that it was a decision based on a known quantity.

Since I was wrong about the first part (lower bump) I may be wrong about the second, since my reasoning was the same...

However another thing he has going for him is the primaries start soon - so if he is still top of the heap coming out of Iowa than he can get even more momentum. Or maybe he'll have enough Newt moments between now and then to sputter out a bit.
In my defense, I was left unsupervised.
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Luke's Dad
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What's going to come out about the guy that isn't already known? He has handled himself extremely well this entire campaign, with the possible exception of not enough groundwork in Iowa and New Hampshire, though he could just be ahead of the curve in getting away from last century's meet & greet baby kissing events, and realizing the best medium for getting the message out is not face to face in today's media driven world.
The problem with having an open mind is that people keep trying to put things in it.
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jon-nyc
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I wasn't referring to something coming out about him, rather him just spouting another one of his big ideas that doesn't sit well with some portion of the base.
In my defense, I was left unsupervised.
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John D'Oh
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MAMIL
The goldfish-like attention span of the GOP base might be enough to do him in.
What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket?
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Axtremus
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What has the goldfish done to you to deserve that comment? :huh:
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jon-nyc
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jon-nyc
Dec 2 2011, 11:18 AM
I figured his bounce would be lower but more sustainable. My reasoning was that he was such a known quantity he wouldn't get the whole herd of folks looking for new and fresh, since he's not that. The flip side though (so went my thinking) was that those that went to him would be stickier, in that it was a decision based on a known quantity.

Since I was wrong about the first part (lower bump) I may be wrong about the second, since my reasoning was the same...

However another thing he has going for him is the primaries start soon - so if he is still top of the heap coming out of Iowa than he can get even more momentum. Or maybe he'll have enough Newt moments between now and then to sputter out a bit.
Another point that hadn't occurred to me earlier, helping explain why my logic above was wrong (about my predicting a smaller bounce for him).

Gingrich can get a decent chunk of the Romney vote, not just the anti-Romney vote. If you look at Bachman, Perry, and Cain's rises, only Perry's seemed to take from Romney's numbers. That makes sense, since if you like Romney, you probably value competence and experience over ideology and outsider-ness. Perry has a chance at attracting you, being an experienced governor. Bachman, Cain, not so much.

Gingrich is like Perry on that score, probably even more so.

In my defense, I was left unsupervised.
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The 89th Key
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John D'Oh
Dec 2 2011, 04:10 PM
The goldfish-like attention span of the GOP base might be enough to do him in.
Ha, you're not kidding!
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The 89th Key
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John D'Oh
Dec 2 2011, 04:10 PM
The goldfish-like attention span of the GOP base might be enough to do him in.
Ha, you're not kidding!
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The 89th Key
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John D'Oh
Dec 2 2011, 04:10 PM
The goldfish-like attention span of the GOP base might be enough to do him in.
Ha, you're not kidding!
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The 89th Key
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Ok I'm done.
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Kincaid
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So is Romney.

ha ha maybe.

We'll see, I still have a hard time believing that Newt has staying power. I find him a lot like Romney in that I think they'll both be compromisers that would get some things done, but would upset the GOP base by not being solid idealogues. With Romney I think you get a better business mind, and with Newt you get a better political mind. Romney's not likely to self-immolate and Newt has much potential there.

I still don't get the ABR mindset, so many politicians change position over time and they get a pass. His Mormon taint is the only thing I can see that is different.
Kincaid - disgusted Republican Partisan since 2006.
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kenny
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The 89th Key
Dec 5 2011, 01:08 PM
Ok I'm done.
Then swim away, but watch out for that filter intake.
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Nobody's Sock
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Kincaid
Dec 5 2011, 02:30 PM
So is Romney.

ha ha maybe.

We'll see, I still have a hard time believing that Newt has staying power. I find him a lot like Romney in that I think they'll both be compromisers that would get some things done, but would upset the GOP base by not being solid idealogues. With Romney I think you get a better business mind, and with Newt you get a better political mind. Romney's not likely to self-immolate and Newt has much potential there.

I still don't get the ABR mindset, so many politicians change position over time and they get a pass. His Mormon taint is the only thing I can see that is different.
How is a Mormon taint different than anybody elses?

"Somewhere, something incredible is waiting to be known."
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Luke's Dad
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Emperor Pengin
Edit never mind.
Edited by Luke's Dad, Dec 5 2011, 04:24 PM.
The problem with having an open mind is that people keep trying to put things in it.
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Kincaid
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HOLY CARP!!!
Nobody's Sock
Dec 5 2011, 03:03 PM
Kincaid
Dec 5 2011, 02:30 PM
I still don't get the ABR mindset, so many politicians change position over time and they get a pass. His Mormon taint is the only thing I can see that is different.
How is a Mormon taint different than anybody elses?

Other taints (like Newt's treatment of ex-wives, or that he even has divorced, or that he once talked nicely about Hilary Clinton) are seemingly forgiveable. Not so with being Mormon.
Kincaid - disgusted Republican Partisan since 2006.
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Dan
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Luke's Dad
Dec 2 2011, 02:19 PM
What's going to come out about the guy that isn't already known? He has handled himself extremely well this entire campaign, with the possible exception of not enough groundwork in Iowa and New Hampshire, though he could just be ahead of the curve in getting away from last century's meet & greet baby kissing events, and realizing the best medium for getting the message out is not face to face in today's media driven world.
Hmm. I think the problem is that you never know what's going to come out of him.

Me thinks ( Hi George :wave: ) he'll forget his rational, thoughtful comments soon and let loose with who knows what.
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John D'Oh
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MAMIL
Kincaid
Dec 5 2011, 02:30 PM
I still don't get the ABR mindset, so many politicians change position over time and they get a pass. His Mormon taint is the only thing I can see that is different.
It can't be that since, as we know, the Republican Party is completely free of religious bigotry, unlike the godless folk they're running against.

Maybe he's too white for them?
What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket?
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Jolly
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Geaux Tigers!
jon-nyc
Dec 2 2011, 03:24 PM
I wasn't referring to something coming out about him, rather him just spouting another one of his big ideas that doesn't sit well with some portion of the base.
To send Obama packing, I think you'd see Pat Robertson hold his nose and vote for Beelzebub.

Never underestimate just how pizzed Conservatives are with the Community Organizer in Chief.
The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros
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jon-nyc
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We were talking about the primary.
In my defense, I was left unsupervised.
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Jolly
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Geaux Tigers!
jon-nyc
Dec 5 2011, 06:00 PM
We were talking about the primary.
Funny, me too.

As a card-carrying Republican, who talks to a lot of other card-carrying Republicans, the bottom line is beating Obama. At the end of the day, that is the deciding factor on who many of us will vote for in the primary.

If we think Gingrich can do it (and I admit, I'm waffling, even though I like Newt) he's the guy.
The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros
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Der Fuhrer
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Junior Carp
Kincaid
Dec 5 2011, 05:09 PM
Nobody's Sock
Dec 5 2011, 03:03 PM
Kincaid
Dec 5 2011, 02:30 PM
I still don't get the ABR mindset, so many politicians change position over time and they get a pass. His Mormon taint is the only thing I can see that is different.
How is a Mormon taint different than anybody elses?

[/qxuote]Other taints (like Newt's treatment of ex-wives, or that he even has divorced, or that he once talked nicely about Hilary Clinton) are seemingly forgiveable. Not so with being Mormon


Buuut canz he doooz zeee polka?
Edited by Der Fuhrer, Dec 6 2011, 05:52 AM.
miss me yet?
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John D'Oh
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MAMIL
Jolly
Dec 5 2011, 05:36 PM
jon-nyc
Dec 2 2011, 03:24 PM
I wasn't referring to something coming out about him, rather him just spouting another one of his big ideas that doesn't sit well with some portion of the base.
To send Obama packing, I think you'd see Pat Robertson hold his nose and vote for Beelzebub.

Never underestimate just how pizzed Conservatives are with the Community Organizer in Chief.
They might be pizzed, but so far they're not exactly looking like a sure-fire thing for election.

Maybe they need an organizer? :lol:
What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket?
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The 89th Key
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I'm still waiting for Huntsman to make his charge. He's one of the only ones left who haven't made the ABR charge (previously Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and now Newt), but he seems to be the complete package and yet he isn't getting any traction?

He's dead in Iowa, but with a good showing in NH (well, a better showing than expected), he might be able to get some traction.

What an odd pre-primary season.
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