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| The End of American Hegemony? | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Sep 11 2011, 12:30 AM (614 Views) | |
| Klaus | Sep 11 2011, 12:30 AM Post #1 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Obviously today is a good day to reflect on the last ten political years and speculate about the future. Every empire in the history of mankind had limited lifetime, and there is no reason to believe that it will be different for the US. I for one wonder whether the last decade will in fifty years be seen as the last major runup of the last remaining superpower of the 20th century. It seems to me that the US may have exhausted their political, economical, moral, and military resources in the last ten years. My bet at this point would be that the US has decades of stagnation and slow depreciation ahead of them, similar to how the British Empire dissolved (as an aside, I don't think the European states will do much better). What do you think? What will happen in the next 10, 20, 50 years? |
| Trifonov Fleisher Klaus Sokolov Zimmerman | |
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| Axtremus | Sep 11 2011, 12:55 AM Post #2 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Unless there is an alien invasion of some other big, cataclysmic event not attributable to men (e.g., big asteroid hit or big natural disaster), the US will continue to be the sole Superpower for the next 20 years. There is simply no other power that even approaches the US' military, economic, and political might. The Europeans (including Russians) are not going to be it, neither is India or China. It is highly unlikely that any of them can catch up within the next 20 years. India is behind China and China has many internal social problems and fault lines that can potentially erupt and delay (or even roll back) its development. That's the 20 year view. 50 years, though, would be a different matter. |
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| jon-nyc | Sep 11 2011, 01:09 AM Post #3 |
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Cheers
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Ax really hit on it - its kind of like the dollar, you can find lots of fault with it easily enough but when you look for an alternative you come up dry. |
| In my defense, I was left unsupervised. | |
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| Klaus | Sep 11 2011, 01:25 AM Post #4 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Well, there will probably not be another superpower that replaces the US, but it could very well be that the US will only be a shadow of its former self simply because it lacks the economic means to conduct large-scale military operations. It is the same with the dollar: No single other currency is going to replace the dollar, but it might very well be that in twenty years the dollar will be just one among several important currencies. Likewise, the US could be just one among several powerful countries. The future is multipolar, if you ask me. |
| Trifonov Fleisher Klaus Sokolov Zimmerman | |
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| apple | Sep 11 2011, 02:49 AM Post #5 |
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one of the angels
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i am somewhat reassured by Ax's positive assurance. that said, i don't see how the US can compete with the east. We have such a collective, undeserved sense of entitlement. I don't see US citizens being world competitive.....'let's work for America.. America first'. .. so I tend to agree with Klaus. 'Our' services and labor are so much more expensive than other world workers.. how can we continually sell high? |
| it behooves me to behold | |
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| Jolly | Sep 11 2011, 03:24 AM Post #6 |
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Geaux Tigers!
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Oh, I think Americans are among the most competitive people on the planet. We certainly are the most innovative. Having said that, I agree with Klaus that we have started our decline and nothing short of another world-wide disaster (man made or natural), will reverse that slide. |
| The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros | |
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| Larry | Sep 11 2011, 04:54 AM Post #7 |
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Mmmmmmm, pie!
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Comments like that chap my ass. |
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Of the Pokatwat Tribe | |
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| RosemaryTwo | Sep 11 2011, 04:59 AM Post #8 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Hearing and reading all the stories of individuals and how they coped on that day, I am humbled and amazed at the strength residing in otherwise ordinary people. I find inspiration and tend to be hopeful and optimistic for America on this date. |
| "Perhaps the thing to do is just to let stupid run its course." Aqua | |
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| Mikhailoh | Sep 11 2011, 05:07 AM Post #9 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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What we can achieve as a nation and as a people is still most impressive. I'm with you, Rosemary. |
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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| Piano*Dad | Sep 11 2011, 06:58 AM Post #10 |
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Bull-Carp
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A little history folks ... How many of you remember the American Decline narrative of the 1980s as Japan was supposedly the rising sun that would soon eclipse the US on the world stage. I sure do. It was bullsh!t then, albeit great for the book sales (and bank accounts) of a number of prominent declinist authors. Clearly before everyone's time, but between the 1850s and the 1880s many European nations essentially caught up to US living standards. Massive flows of people around the world (and goods too) essentially caused wages and prices to converge, and living standards with them. But then sometime around 1890 the US experienced "a Great Leap Forward." US innovation dramatically raised labor productivity. The US leaped ahead technologically, and the large, unified, and relatively free, market led to surging living standards. The income gap between the US and the rest of the world reemerged. Catch up is natural as long as the world is a fairly integrated place. Technology gets learned. Capital accumulates where it is scarce. People move from where they are plentiful (and underpaid). The thing that prevents catch up is usually politics. Countries that crush initiative and discourage saving, or that separate themselves from the rest of the world, often stagnate. But confusing others catching up, which is a long term and regular occurrence, with the US somehow being "in decline" is rather silly. It's a lot easier to catch up than it is to push the frontier of new knowledge and new forms of organization. The US has shown a great tendency to push the frontier. It's not an accident that much of the technological and organizational change that has so transformed the world over the last quarter century had its origins here. |
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| Mikhailoh | Sep 11 2011, 07:52 AM Post #11 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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Good post, PD. Nice to see you writing here, too. |
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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| Mark | Sep 11 2011, 08:16 AM Post #12 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Good post PD! I agree too. The only real problems we have is an never ending growth and scope of our government, and a misguided notion that we should be the policeman/bully of the world. |
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___.___ (_]===* o 0 When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. H.G. Wells | |
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| Mikhailoh | Sep 11 2011, 08:29 AM Post #13 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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I agree with the first part, Mark. But as to the second, if we are not pursuing our own interests and promoting our proven standards, someone else will be pursuing theirs and it will probably not be to our liking. There are responibilities that come with the position we hold in the world. We have to show leadership, not abdicate. |
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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| Mark | Sep 11 2011, 10:37 AM Post #14 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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No we don't. |
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___.___ (_]===* o 0 When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. H.G. Wells | |
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| Axtremus | Sep 11 2011, 10:44 AM Post #15 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Indeed we don't "have to." It's a choice. |
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| Mikhailoh | Sep 11 2011, 11:02 AM Post #16 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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| Mark | Sep 11 2011, 11:04 AM Post #17 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Oh please Mik. Don't be ridiculous. |
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___.___ (_]===* o 0 When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. H.G. Wells | |
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| Mikhailoh | Sep 11 2011, 11:09 AM Post #18 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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Don't you be. You come on with these 'No we don't' answers to complex questions. That, my friend, is ridiculous. Yes, it would be very easy for the US to disengage. Beimg engaged is a messy, expensive, dangerous process. But I stone guarantee you that disengagement will be far, far worse over time as our influence and position erodes and those who do not have our best interests at heart gain and wield influence. Like it or not, what happens in the rest of the world affects this country. |
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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| Copper | Sep 11 2011, 11:39 AM Post #19 |
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Shortstop
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You could make that statement about almost every decade during the last 150 years. |
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The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy | |
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| Mark | Sep 11 2011, 12:12 PM Post #20 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Not to the extent that we need to have military presence everywhere we have it. Some have convinced themselves otherwise. And it is simply not true. The industrial military complex has done its job well it would seem |
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___.___ (_]===* o 0 When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. H.G. Wells | |
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| Mikhailoh | Sep 11 2011, 12:18 PM Post #21 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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OK, that is something to talk about. So where would it be prudent to reduce our miltary footprint? |
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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| Mark | Sep 11 2011, 12:22 PM Post #22 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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The middle east would be a great start. |
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___.___ (_]===* o 0 When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. H.G. Wells | |
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| Mikhailoh | Sep 11 2011, 12:49 PM Post #23 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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So we should just bail out and let Al Qaeda have a free reign, operate wherever they want to be? We kind of did that in the 90's and it didn't work out so well. Should we let Afghanistan go back to utter chaos again? OK, so let's say we leave the Middle East. What would be our strategy for preventing further attacks on the US and protecting our interests in the region? How would Iran's growing power be countered? |
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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| Mark | Sep 11 2011, 03:31 PM Post #24 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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We can stay vigilant without having to be in everyone's face all the time. We do not need to "babysit" the world 24/7. It's mostly hype and BS on such a grand scale it seriously pisses me off that people can't see through it. |
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___.___ (_]===* o 0 When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. H.G. Wells | |
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| Mikhailoh | Sep 11 2011, 03:38 PM Post #25 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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Great! How, exactly, do we do that? |
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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6:52 AM Jul 11