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| Gold surges, dollar declines, inflation fears fueling; but.... but.... | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Apr 25 2011, 04:49 AM (257 Views) | |
| Larry | Apr 25 2011, 04:49 AM Post #1 |
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Mmmmmmm, pie!
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but we all know that gold is just in a bubble, and inflation isn't a concern, don't we... Yes - invest those dollars in the stock market! Yes sir!! Don't pay any attention to the IMF when they say that the age of America is near its end! No sir! And don't pay any attention to the Financial Times' article which states that gold hit a record high, while silver surged more than 5 per cent to within a whisker of its all-time peak, as the dollar continued its decline and inflation concerns drove haven flows. We all know the truth.. everything is just fine. No worries. Go back to sleep, and keep buying those stocks with dollars....... Yeah, right. |
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Of the Pokatwat Tribe | |
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| jon-nyc | Apr 25 2011, 04:56 AM Post #2 |
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Cheers
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Keep constructing your strawman, Larry. It improves your chances of winning an argument. However, I will repeat my assertion that gold is in a bubble. |
| In my defense, I was left unsupervised. | |
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| jon-nyc | Apr 25 2011, 04:59 AM Post #3 |
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Cheers
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By the way, where were you when the dollar made its massive decline between 2001 and 2008? That dwarfs anything we've seen since. (as for me I became a dollar bear in 2002, and wrote about it in the OCR within weeks of joining the forum in 2005) |
| In my defense, I was left unsupervised. | |
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| Larry | Apr 25 2011, 05:02 AM Post #4 |
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Mmmmmmm, pie!
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I still recommend real estate. In fact, buy as much of it as you can get your hands on. Just know what to buy..... and how to buy it.... and what to do with it once you get it. People who lose their homes to foreclosure *still* have to live somewhere..... ![]() Just don't take any of your profits and invest it in the stock market in dollars... You see, the bubble that's about to burst isn't gold - it's the dollar... |
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Of the Pokatwat Tribe | |
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| Larry | Apr 25 2011, 05:02 AM Post #5 |
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Mmmmmmm, pie!
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Ah, you edited.... shame shame.....
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Of the Pokatwat Tribe | |
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| John D'Oh | Apr 25 2011, 05:07 AM Post #6 |
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MAMIL
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If you chaps need any help coping with not being the Greatest Country Like Evah once the Chinese take over, as a citizen of a country that's had to deal with the loss I'm willing to give grief counselling. Payment in gold, obviously. |
| What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket? | |
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| jon-nyc | Apr 25 2011, 05:16 AM Post #7 |
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Cheers
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Happy to put it back, just keeping the focus. (i had written 'i was buying gold when you were still recommending real estate' or something like that) |
| In my defense, I was left unsupervised. | |
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| jon-nyc | Apr 25 2011, 05:23 AM Post #8 |
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Cheers
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I think you missed the burst. I guess the talking heads and infomercials you seem to get your advice from we're still hawking real estate back then. ![]() http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/dollars-biggest-decline-2001-08/ Now, it may fall further (in fact, I expect it to), and I'm still just as hedged as I was back in 2002. But you kind of lose credibility when you wait until after the big drop (or, with gold, the big runup) to make your prognostications. Oh, by the way, here's me warning other to hedge dollar exposure four weeks after joining PW. |
| In my defense, I was left unsupervised. | |
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| jon-nyc | Apr 25 2011, 05:28 AM Post #9 |
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Cheers
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I confess I missed some of gold's run-up, I first bought in late 2004 when the GLD ETF became available (gold was maybe at 450 then). Prior to that I hedged the dollar through international equities and foreign currencies. |
| In my defense, I was left unsupervised. | |
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| jon-nyc | Apr 25 2011, 05:41 AM Post #10 |
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Cheers
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To elaborate.... My comments on inflation we're that it was at historic lows, usually in response to someone here making an erroneous claim to the contrary. What I've never said is that we would *always remain* at historic lows. I don't have a well-developed opinion about the great inflation vs. deflation debate, I think both sides have some good arguments on their side. My main near-term inflation concern is energy price related, since it can't be combatted by monetary policy. Re inflation vs. deflation, I try to hedge either way. |
| In my defense, I was left unsupervised. | |
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| Jolly | Apr 25 2011, 05:45 AM Post #11 |
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Geaux Tigers!
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Do you agree or disagree with the assertion that the real rate of inflation is hovering around 10%? |
| The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros | |
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| jon-nyc | Apr 25 2011, 05:46 AM Post #12 |
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Cheers
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Totally disagree. That shadow stats guy has been pretty well shown to be wearing no clothes. It fails the common sense test on so many levels. If his numbers were accurate, the price level would have roughly tripled under Bush's watch. Give that some thought. |
| In my defense, I was left unsupervised. | |
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| jon-nyc | Apr 25 2011, 05:52 AM Post #13 |
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Cheers
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One more point to make (repeat, really). Please keep in mind that gold moving to frequent new highs is entirely consistent with it being in a bubble. That's not to say it proves we're in a bubble, just that you're wasting your breath trying to use a new gold high as an attempt to Whether I am right about gold or not will only be apparent in hindsight. |
| In my defense, I was left unsupervised. | |
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| jon-nyc | Apr 25 2011, 05:58 AM Post #14 |
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Cheers
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I should add to that, I still own gold, its 5% of my portfolio.... However given the run up its had, I've sold quite a bit off to keep it at 5%. I'm long since playing with house money. |
| In my defense, I was left unsupervised. | |
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| Larry | Apr 25 2011, 06:13 AM Post #15 |
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Mmmmmmm, pie!
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Since my sources were Market Watch and Financial Times, I find your suggestion that I "get my advice from talking heads and infomercials" to be rather funny.. |
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Of the Pokatwat Tribe | |
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| Larry | Apr 25 2011, 06:16 AM Post #16 |
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Mmmmmmm, pie!
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Good thing, since the house money is rapidly becoming Monopoly money... |
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Of the Pokatwat Tribe | |
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| 1hp | Apr 25 2011, 07:40 AM Post #17 |
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Fulla-Carp
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So I often wonder about the baby boomers and the stock market. At one time there were discussions about baby boomers retiring and living off their 401K plans (heavily invested in the stock market), but these days I don't see anything about this. Last I heard, the baby boomers have started retiring. So will this start to affect stock market values as they start cashing in? Anyone know what percentage of the stock market is retirement money? Second question - all these underfunded pension plans for the public employees. Stock market invested? If they are underfunded, aren't they going to be drawn down faster than expected? |
| There are 10 kinds of people in this world, those that understand binary and................ | |
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| jon-nyc | Apr 25 2011, 08:53 AM Post #18 |
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Cheers
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Good question, I've certainly read theories that that will be a problem. The countervailing arguments include (1) stocks can be purchased easily by foreign nationals with less of a demographic problem, and (2) the effect is mitigated by the skewed ownership of stocks among the boomers. People with 20MM in stock wont sell, they'll pass much of it on. People with 200k will sell. I dont pretend to know how big of an issue it will be. On the plus side, one would expect more demand for companies to pay dividends. |
| In my defense, I was left unsupervised. | |
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