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Some of today's headlines; But Jon... I thought you said...........
Topic Started: Apr 14 2011, 01:41 PM (486 Views)
Larry
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Jobless claims rise

Inflation pressure grows

Gold soars




But you said..............


Of the Pokatwat Tribe

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jon-nyc
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What did I say? Finish your sentence.
In my defense, I was left unsupervised.
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Horace
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HOLY CARP!!!
You said that soon, there won't be anybody left to sell gold to, and that it's a bubble that will (eventually) definitely pop to significantly below its current levels.
As a good person, I implore you to do as I, a good person, do. Be good. Do NOT be bad. If you see bad, end bad. End it in yourself, and end it in others. By any means necessary, the good must conquer the bad. Good people know this. Do you know this? Are you good?
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jon-nyc
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I have definitely said gold is in a bubble, though I never called the top or the bottom.

But I think Larry's referring to thread where I replied to hp1's request for some good news with some good news.


That's why I asked him to state what he thought my point was, because he likely has it wrong.

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Larry
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Come now Jon, don't be so modest. You know as well as I do that you haven't been simply trying to present "good news" per some request - you have actively argued with me and others that unemployment is dropping, inflation isn't a problem, and gold isn't a good investment.

As it turns out, however........


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Larry
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jon-nyc
Apr 14 2011, 05:47 PM
I have definitely said gold is in a bubble, though I never called the top or the bottom.

I call the top for you, Jon.

On the day that it is certain that the next president is a Republican and the Republicans have taken the House.......


start selling......
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jon-nyc
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Larry
Apr 14 2011, 06:18 PM
Come now Jon, don't be so modest. You know as well as I do that you haven't been simply trying to present "good news" per some request - you have actively argued with me and others that unemployment is dropping, inflation isn't a problem, and gold isn't a good investment.

As it turns out, however........


The employment picture is improving and inflation is quite low for now (though I expect the price of oil to really show up in the inflation numbers soon enough).

Posted Image


Do keep in mind my argument has never been 'inflation shall remain low for the foreseeable future'. I have simply corrected people when they say that inflation is a problem *today*. In other words, if inflation creeps up, please don't gloat about it assuming it 'proves me wrong'.


And yes, IMO gold is exhibiting all signs of being in a bubble. By the way, that doesn't get disproved by having it reach new highs on a particular day. In fact having it regularly reach new highs is entirely consistent with it being in a bubble. It'll be some time before we know which of us was right about gold.
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Frank_W
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Unemployment MAY be falling, but the records are drawn from those who are collecting unemployment. The "99's" aren't counted; those who are out of work and have hit the 99-week point when unemployment benefits run out, and they are left high and dry. The go off of the unemployment books, so the statistics become a bit skewed.

What's interesting, is that chart bears out what I've been saying lately: This is a rerun of the Carter years.
Anatomy Prof: "The human body has about 20 sq. meters of skin."
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big al
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Frank_W
Apr 15 2011, 04:17 AM
What's interesting, is that chart bears out what I've been saying lately: This is a rerun of the Carter years.
I can't see that at all in the chart. Maybe you can explain how you do.

Big Al
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Frank_W
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Compare the unemployment spikes in the Obama term and the Carter term. I didn't think it was that difficult to see. :shrug:
Anatomy Prof: "The human body has about 20 sq. meters of skin."
Me: "Man, that's a lot of lampshades!"
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Larry
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You can't see it in that chart because that chart has about as much to do with this discussion as airplane wings do to goldfish.


Jon, you cannot use the argument that things won't change at some point in the future because I can use that same argument. We're talking about now, "now" being defined as the immediate time period covering our debate of this issue. When I said inflation was poised to take off, you argued that it wasn't. When I said that gold was going to jump, you said that it wasn't. When I said the unemployment was rising, you argued that it isn't.

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jon-nyc
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On employment and inflation, the stats support my view, not yours.

Only on gold do we need to wait. The data is consistent with both of our views at this point.
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jon-nyc
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Frank_W
Apr 15 2011, 04:17 AM
What's interesting, is that chart bears out what I've been saying lately: This is a rerun of the Carter years.
Actually, you've said that several times in the last week, but mostly in discussions about inflation. Each time it left me scratching my head, since you couldn't be more wrong.
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jon-nyc
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Frank_W
Apr 15 2011, 05:49 AM
Compare the unemployment spikes in the Obama term and the Carter term. I didn't think it was that difficult to see. :shrug:
The unemployment spike occurred under Reagan. Even the spike under Ford was higher than anything seen in the Carter years.
In my defense, I was left unsupervised.
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Frank_W
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Okay.. I'm wrong. Not the first or the last time, certainly.
Anatomy Prof: "The human body has about 20 sq. meters of skin."
Me: "Man, that's a lot of lampshades!"
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big al
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Frank_W
Apr 15 2011, 05:49 AM
Compare the unemployment spikes in the Obama term and the Carter term. I didn't think it was that difficult to see. :shrug:
Still don't see it, Frank. The unemployment rise in the 1980 recession was smaller than either the Nixon era one preceding it or the Reagan era one following it and certainly not as big as the most recent recession. As far as inflation, the curves move opposite to each other so I don't see anything comparable at all.

edit: I see Jon already spoke to this while I was composing an anwer.

Big Al
Edited by big al, Apr 15 2011, 06:38 AM.
Location: Western PA

"jesu, der simcha fun der man's farlangen."
-bachophile
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Frank_W
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Okay, I'm wrong. It happens. In fact, I deserve to have my head lopped off with a razor-sharp katana and kicked into a fetid, algae-choked pond, and for crows and vultures to devour my intestines in a weed-grown ditch by the side of the highway.
Anatomy Prof: "The human body has about 20 sq. meters of skin."
Me: "Man, that's a lot of lampshades!"
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jon-nyc
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Can I have your bike? :D
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Axtremus
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HOLY CARP!!!
Frank_W
Apr 15 2011, 06:39 AM
... have my head lopped off with a razor-sharp katana and kicked into a fetid, algae-choked pond, and for crows and vultures to devour my intestines in a weed-grown ditch by the side of the highway.
Sounds like good lyric for emo-goth heavy metal song! :D
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John D'Oh
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MAMIL
Frank_W
Apr 15 2011, 06:39 AM
Okay, I'm wrong.
If you say it one more time, I'll put it in my sig.
What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket?
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Frank_W
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Sure.... :lol2:
Anatomy Prof: "The human body has about 20 sq. meters of skin."
Me: "Man, that's a lot of lampshades!"
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Larry
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The chart is meaningless. Unemployment and inflation lags behind the actual causes of it.

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Larry
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http://www.economytruth.com/


http://www.businessinsider.com/the-truth-about-the-economy-were-heading-back-toward-a-double-dip-2011-3
Edited by Larry, Apr 15 2011, 08:31 AM.
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John D'Oh
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Larry
Apr 15 2011, 08:14 AM
The chart is meaningless. Unemployment and inflation lags behind the actual causes of it.

So you're trying to blame Bush for the current mess? I think that's a bit unfair.
What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket?
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Larry
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John, it doesn't lag by 3 years.....
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