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The best analysis you'll read about the coming debt ceiling showdown
Topic Started: Jan 13 2011, 07:10 AM (74 Views)
jon-nyc
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Cheers
From Morgan Stanley.

http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/index.html#anchor2e2d2f70-1d7f-11e0-bf0c-7fbcb3d7fc78
In my defense, I was left unsupervised.
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Improviso
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HOLY CARP!!!
Quote:
 
While operating rates are low and the jobless rate is high, changes in those gaps - so-called 'speed effects' - are promoting an inflation inflection point. That is especially the case for rents, which are a major inflation component and which are already moving higher.

Do you suppose the folks who COULD pay their mortgage and walked away due to being *underwater* and are now renting, will regret that decision down the road?
Identifying narcissists isn't difficult. Just look for the person who is constantly fishing for compliments
and admiration while breaking down over even the slightest bit of criticism.

We have the freedom to choose our actions, but we do not get to choose our consequences.
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jon-nyc
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Some salient points:

- decent probability of market disruption, since something like that would likely be necessary to end a standoff

- this will drag out, its not just a March thing but will play out into the summer, due to some tactical steps that Treasury can make and the influx of tax payments in April

- current 'continuing resolution' (what we have instead of a budget) expires March 4th, so the politics of that will interplay as well. 'Debt ceiling' showdown is more serious than 'continuing resolution' showdown, since the latter has some built-in pressure valves

In my defense, I was left unsupervised.
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jon-nyc
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Improviso
Jan 13 2011, 07:22 AM
Quote:
 
While operating rates are low and the jobless rate is high, changes in those gaps - so-called 'speed effects' - are promoting an inflation inflection point. That is especially the case for rents, which are a major inflation component and which are already moving higher.

Do you suppose the folks who COULD pay their mortgage and walked away due to being *underwater* and are now renting, will regret that decision down the road?
THat would be rather ironic, no?


(anyway I was trying to post a link to the second article on the page....)
In my defense, I was left unsupervised.
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