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| Go Ted...... | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Jul 13 2010, 08:52 AM (794 Views) | |
| kathyk | Jul 13 2010, 04:17 PM Post #26 |
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Pisa-Carp
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You mean like "phenomenally?" Good gosh, and some of you people go off about Roseanne Barr and Barbara Streisand as spokes people for political causes.
Edited by kathyk, Jul 13 2010, 04:17 PM.
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| Blogging in Palestine: http://kksjournal.com/ | |
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| John D'Oh | Jul 13 2010, 04:19 PM Post #27 |
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MAMIL
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When someone makes a crass blunder like that, it's worth dwelling on it a little. It's not like anybody's going to change their minds about the rest of it, after all.
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| What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket? | |
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| jon-nyc | Jul 13 2010, 04:59 PM Post #28 |
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Cheers
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Post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy. Just like Kathy's post earlier today. |
| In my defense, I was left unsupervised. | |
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| Piano*Dad | Jul 13 2010, 05:49 PM Post #29 |
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Bull-Carp
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That's why we have multiple regression analysis and statistical causality techniques. They help keep us out of hoc.
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| KlavierBauer | Jul 13 2010, 05:50 PM Post #30 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Jon: What would you accept as reasonable data to demonstrate the possibility that there is a correlation between gun control laws and violent crime, and that one is inversely proportionate to the other? That's a genuine question. It's easy to take the statement " The cities with the strictest gun control laws are Chicago and Washington DC. THey are among the highest crime-rate cities as well. " and scream "correlation != causation" - but there's a lot more to the data than this, so what data would you like to see? Is it possible that no amount of data would be sufficient? Kathy:I don't go off about celebrities having political opinions - especially when I agree with them. Ted Nugent hasn't been famous as a rock star for a long time - he's famous as a political activist now, mainly advocating for the eating of meat and firing of guns. You'll see me complaining about people in a position of "journalist" utilizing their position to create repeated opinion pieces. An entertainer - especially one whose entertainment value is caused by their extreme opinions - is expected to have opinions, whether it's Roseanne or Ted Nugent. I don't have a problem with Roseanne having opinions, I have a problem with Roseanne in general. |
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"I realize you want him to touch you all over and give you babies, but his handling of the PR side really did screw the pooch." - Ivory Thumper "He said sleepily: "Don't worry mom, my dick is like hot logs in the morning." - Apple | |
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| George K | Jul 13 2010, 05:53 PM Post #31 |
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Finally
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MODERATOR! As to the post hoc, ergo propter hoc argument, I certainly see your point. Perhaps a better way for me to have stated it is "we have evidence that strict gun control laws do not prevent crime. To wit: Chicago and DC." EDIT: KB beat me to it. Edited by George K, Jul 13 2010, 05:53 PM.
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A guide to GKSR: Click "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08 Nothing is as effective as homeopathy. I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles. - Klaus, 4/29/18 | |
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| John D'Oh | Jul 13 2010, 06:19 PM Post #32 |
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MAMIL
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'This helicopter won't fly'? |
| What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket? | |
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| KlavierBauer | Jul 13 2010, 06:51 PM Post #33 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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John: Or perhaps: "I wore this t-shirt today, and didn't get attacked by tigers, ergo this shirt prevents tiger attacks." |
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"I realize you want him to touch you all over and give you babies, but his handling of the PR side really did screw the pooch." - Ivory Thumper "He said sleepily: "Don't worry mom, my dick is like hot logs in the morning." - Apple | |
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| Larry | Jul 13 2010, 07:53 PM Post #34 |
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Mmmmmmm, pie!
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Good grief..... He isn't arguing that the Irish should be given the right to own guns. Read the title of his article - he's arguing the case for gun rights in AMERICA. All he'd doing by bringing up other countries is to make the point that restricting gun ownership doesn't work - the exact opposite from what some of you are trying to twist it into. Trying to talk to liberals is like trying to herd cats. |
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Of the Pokatwat Tribe | |
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| John D'Oh | Jul 14 2010, 04:46 AM Post #35 |
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MAMIL
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As part of his argument for saying guns are needed in the US he's saying that Switzerland is safe because they've got guns, and Ireland is dangerous because they haven't. If you look at this web-site http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_mur_percap-crime-murders-per-capita you'll see that Ireland and Switzerland have pretty much the same murder rate - Ireland's is actually slightly lower. In other words, his facts are flat out wrong. Now, I fully acknowledge there's more to the argument than this. The culture of a country plays a significant part in crime statistics, but pointing out how dangerous countries are by comparison with whether their populace is armed is very simplistic, and to be honest, rather stupid. The UK has a much lower murder rate than the US, for example, despite having fairly draconian gun-control laws. Trying to implement these types of laws wouldn't work in the US, because there's a whole ton of guns already in place, and also because it's not what the populace want. You don't get much argument from the British regarding the gun laws, because the use of guns isn't a big deal for them in the same way it is for many Americans - the private use of guns declined dramatically in Britain in 1920 after WW1 - I suspect people got sick of seeing what they could do. My own feelings about this are a little mixed. Ignoring the US fondness for guns for a moment, would a relaxation in the British gun laws reduce violent crime? Possibly it would, possibly it wouldn't. I'm not big on making huge changes in laws, due to the law of unintended consequences, so I'd leave the status quo alone in Britain, and try and make incremental changes to try and reduce the admittedly high violent crime rate slowly. Would banning guns in the US work? Of course not - however requiring people to take training and having some level of expertise before ka-blamming off in their back yard probably isn't such a bad idea either. I'm also a firm believer in allowing the electorate decide what they want. If the majority of people in a State don't want handguns to be freely available, I think this is their right. |
| What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket? | |
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| John D'Oh | Jul 14 2010, 05:01 AM Post #36 |
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MAMIL
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Because the cat always wins?
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| What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket? | |
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| jon-nyc | Jul 14 2010, 05:07 AM Post #37 |
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Cheers
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| In my defense, I was left unsupervised. | |
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| Phlebas | Jul 14 2010, 05:46 AM Post #38 |
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Bull-Carp
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How about data that's correct (not speaking for John). Washington and Chicago do not have either the strictest gun laws or the highest crime rates. New york actually has the strictest gun laws, and a relatively low violent crime rate. New Orleans has very lax gun laws, and has an incredibly high violent crime rate. Care to explain why? I'm not prepared to say it has a lot to do with gun laws, but don't tell me the way to lower crime is to arm everyone. When you say things that are factually incorrect, then you lose credibility - referring to Ted Nugents geographical mistake about N. Ireland. Also, the bit about Toronto's drug wars was pretty funny - yeah, just like Medellin in the '80s. |
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Random FML: Today, I was fired by my boss in front of my coworkers. It would have been nice if I could have left the building before they started celebrating. FML The founding of the bulk of the world's nation states post 1914 is based on self-defined nationalisms. The bulk of those national movements involve territory that was ethnically mixed. The foundation of many of those nation states involved population movements in the aftermath. When the only one that is repeatedly held up as unjust and unjustifiable is the Zionist project, the term anti-semitism may very well be appropriate. - P*D | |
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| Jolly | Jul 14 2010, 06:05 AM Post #39 |
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Geaux Tigers!
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Wrong, bucko. The people's right shall not be infringed...now, the state can place legal restrictions on the periphery of that right, as in requiring potential buyers to undergo a waiting period, requiring actual buyers to undergo firearms safety training, etc. But they cannot deny access to personal weapons. |
| The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros | |
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| Axtremus | Jul 14 2010, 06:14 AM Post #40 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Good grief ... if you really believe that the lack of gun control reduces violence, just tell Israel to lift all arms blockade into Gaza. Let guns flow freely into Gaza and see what happens to "violent crime rate" there. Knobheads! |
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| Jolly | Jul 14 2010, 06:16 AM Post #41 |
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Geaux Tigers!
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Actually, that would work. |
| The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros | |
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| KlavierBauer | Jul 14 2010, 06:42 AM Post #42 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Phlebas: Until last year when the Supreme Court ruled that the 2nd Amendment was indeed an individual right, Washington D.C. had by far the strictest gun laws, as it was effectively a gun ban. NYC is not far behind, but both Chicago and D.C. gun laws have been considered gun bans, while NYC still allows gun ownership, and even conceal/carry. Justice Breyer in the Heller ruling called the Chicago ban as bad as the D.C. ban, while NYC's laws have been slightly less analogous. I don't know what's so hard to get here - nobody's proposing that there's a logarithmic correlation between gun ownership and violence, such that each gun equals a drop of n% in violent crime, and vice versa. The point is extremely simple: The Brady lovers and gun haters use fear to keep the populace relatively "anti-gun" - using the notion that looser gun laws will cause a spike in violent crime - and the numbers simply don't support it. Call into question Nugent's historical knowledge if you must, or find a statistic that Switzerland has roughly the same murder rate as Ireland as a means to discredit the argument rather than addressing the argument itself. Even make up facts such as "NYC's gun laws are just as bad as D.C.'s" - do anything but address the core argument: more lawful gun ownership doesn't cause more gun related violence, it causes less, and there is plenty of credible evidence to suggest this. |
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"I realize you want him to touch you all over and give you babies, but his handling of the PR side really did screw the pooch." - Ivory Thumper "He said sleepily: "Don't worry mom, my dick is like hot logs in the morning." - Apple | |
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| John D'Oh | Jul 14 2010, 06:58 AM Post #43 |
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MAMIL
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If I try to argue that smoking is a bad thing, based on the fact that King Henry VIII died of lung cancer, that doesn't necessarily mean that smoking is a good thing. It does, however, make me look like an imbecile. |
| What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket? | |
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| Phlebas | Jul 14 2010, 07:05 AM Post #44 |
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Bull-Carp
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The article cited examples of specific places where there is crime, and made the point that there would be less crime if people were allowed to own guns. He got his facts wrong about one of those points, and made simplistic arguments. Please don't say "I don't know what's so hard to get." I'm not stupid, and I never said anyone was proposing an "Logarithmic correlation." I believe the author did imply a correlation, though. Otherwise, why did he bring it up? |
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Random FML: Today, I was fired by my boss in front of my coworkers. It would have been nice if I could have left the building before they started celebrating. FML The founding of the bulk of the world's nation states post 1914 is based on self-defined nationalisms. The bulk of those national movements involve territory that was ethnically mixed. The foundation of many of those nation states involved population movements in the aftermath. When the only one that is repeatedly held up as unjust and unjustifiable is the Zionist project, the term anti-semitism may very well be appropriate. - P*D | |
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| KlavierBauer | Jul 14 2010, 07:07 AM Post #45 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Granted ... Without getting into why Ted's statements don't compare to the above example I'll reply simply with: "and therefore what?" So you think Nugent's an imbecile .... it should be *extremely* easy then to crush his imbecilic arguments with a few cold hard facts about how increasing lawful gun ownership causes violent crime to skyrocket. I still haven't seen anywhere in this thread though, any discussion (except from me) of the core argument that lawful gun ownership doesn't increase violent crime. I've only seen attacks on Ted and his fact-finding ability, which I haven't disagreed with. Unless I'm simply misunderstanding this thread and the point isn't to discuss gun controls laws' effect on violent crime, but is to discuss what an imbecile Ted Nugent is. If I've misjudged the audience then I sincerely apologize. |
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"I realize you want him to touch you all over and give you babies, but his handling of the PR side really did screw the pooch." - Ivory Thumper "He said sleepily: "Don't worry mom, my dick is like hot logs in the morning." - Apple | |
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| jon-nyc | Jul 14 2010, 07:30 AM Post #46 |
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Cheers
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A randomized double blind study, of course. |
| In my defense, I was left unsupervised. | |
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| KlavierBauer | Jul 14 2010, 07:34 AM Post #47 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Of course .... I can see a real problem arising for the placebo group though. Seriously though - what would you like to see in a study to demonstrate whether or not lawful carrying of firearms affects violent crime rates? Double blind is out of the question for obvious reasons... |
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"I realize you want him to touch you all over and give you babies, but his handling of the PR side really did screw the pooch." - Ivory Thumper "He said sleepily: "Don't worry mom, my dick is like hot logs in the morning." - Apple | |
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| Copper | Jul 14 2010, 07:39 AM Post #48 |
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Shortstop
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No question. Send some nuclear weapons and a couple aircraft carriers to the Palestinians. Things would work out one way or the other. |
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The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy | |
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| jon-nyc | Jul 14 2010, 09:18 AM Post #49 |
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Cheers
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Very difficult question - I can say that I'm not swayed by comparisons of the US to Japan or Switzerland. Even a longitudinal study would have problems, for besides being utterly impractical, secular changes to crime rates may have occurred for other reasons. |
| In my defense, I was left unsupervised. | |
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| Mikhailoh | Jul 14 2010, 10:45 AM Post #50 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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Not always.
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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Good gosh, and some of you people go off about Roseanne Barr and Barbara Streisand as spokes people for political causes.






12:41 AM Jul 11