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Best 4 week bull market since 1933
Topic Started: Apr 3 2009, 04:30 PM (283 Views)
jon-nyc
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Cheers
S&P up 24.5% in 4 weeks.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dow-sets-best-4week-run-since-rb-14847500.html
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jon-nyc
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Here;s the 'Four Bad Bears' update from dshort:

Posted Image
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blondie
Bull-Carp
Gah.
That's an ugly graph.
You must be really miffed tonight Jon.
;)
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George K
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Finally
Triple Dip or Double Down?

While global stock markets have surged during March, some see the heralding in of yet another massive sell-off, dubbed a “triple dip.”

Monday, two financial institutions predicted a big decline in equity valuations before a sustainable rebound comes about. JP Morgan claimed that valuations and credit markets do not yet support equities, citing second half of 2009 as the time when a genuine recovery would come into play.

The same day Hong Kong based Japanese and Asian trading specialist Helmsman Global Trading wrote in a research note that a “triple dip” will come into play after the current rally, setting the S&P500 index to as far back as 800 points. Helmsman expects the dive in equities to occur around the middle of May.

“We saw the first dip after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. We rallied late in 2008 … the second dip rolled along in January and February. Markets hit a low on March 9th and have since rallied strongly,” wrote Helmsman director Martin Marnick in the note. Marnick also disparaged bulls who claim that the U.S. is immune from decade-long Japanese-style recessions, pointing out that the Nasdaq is 79% below its 9-year high of 5,048 points.

Most bulls and bears are in agreement that a rally in equity prices will hold up over the next 2 months, however. Philip Roth, chief technical market analyst at Miller Tabak in New York, said that “significant strength” was on the side of equity valuations for the time being, ”propelled by a number of factors, not just confidence in the banking sector.”
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1hp
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Fulla-Carp

Record unemployment numbers, which undoubtably means more foreclosures. Do you really think crowing about a few days of positive stock market results is warranted?

Today's papers also address the number of people who aren't dining out anymore, and the number of restaurants that are going to fold in the next one to two years. etc.........
There are 10 kinds of people in this world, those that understand binary and................
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jon-nyc
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Was somebody crowing? I must have missed that.
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Horace
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HOLY CARP!!!
1hp
Apr 4 2009, 08:31 AM

Record unemployment numbers, which undoubtably means more foreclosures. Do you really think crowing about a few days of positive stock market results is warranted?

Today's papers also address the number of people who aren't dining out anymore, and the number of restaurants that are going to fold in the next one to two years. etc.........
Jon posts a pretty equal opportunity cross section of financial articles, I don't think he was crowing about anything, just passing on a curiosity.
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1hp
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Fulla-Carp

Perhaps you missed the title of Jon's thread:

"Best 4 week bull market since 1933"
There are 10 kinds of people in this world, those that understand binary and................
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Mikhailoh
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It is an interpretation of statistics.

For all our sakes I hope the recovery comes quickly.
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jon-nyc
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That's a statement of fact, hp, not 'crowing'. I happened to read that somewhere and posted it here.

By the way, I started the same thread in WTF, where I also added that I think we'll see the market drop below 700 again.


Re your point about unemployment etc., FWIW historically in recessions the market bottoms out 6 months or so before GDP actually starts rising again.


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1hp
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Fulla-Carp

So all we have to do is figure out when companies are going to stop dumping people out on the street, and we can start buying.

The real question is - if you run your magic formulas where do stock prices stand today - about where they should be, under valued, way under valued (this is not the perceived value by the masses, I'm asking about the calculated stock value).

There are 10 kinds of people in this world, those that understand binary and................
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jon-nyc
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hp - I've seen several takes on that. Many think stocks were pretty cheap at early March prices.

For a bearish analysis, see Henry Blodget's post based on Robert Schiller's analysis.

http://www.businessinsider.com/new-low-on-shiller-pe-12x-normal-trough-low-is-8x-2009-3
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jon-nyc
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As for me, I don't pretend to know. I just buy the dips. I bought in September, again in November, and again a few weeks back when it dropped below 700 briefly. I suspect it will reach a new low, at which point I'll be a buyer again.
In my defense, I was left unsupervised.
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Frank_W
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Resident Misanthrope
I may not always understand everything about the markets Jon, but I always appreciate that you post the articles you do, along with your explanation of the issues. :thumb: Well done.
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