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Senator Franken?
Topic Started: Dec 18 2008, 02:17 PM (161 Views)
QuirtEvans
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I Owe It All To John D'Oh
Quote:
 
Both the Associated Press and the Minneapolis Star Tribune project that Franken will overtake Coleman once this process is ended. And this count doesn't even include the disputed wrongfully rejected absentee ballots that the canvassing board ruled should be added to the final result.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/18/minnesota-recount-franken_n_152101.html

And here's fivethirtyeight's usual incisive take:

Quote:
 
If Coleman wins 127 challenges and Franken wins 122, that would mean a net of 5 votes for Coleman. If the Franken campaign's estimate was correct that it was winning the re-count by 4 votes assuming that all challenges would be rejected, that would produce a Coleman win by a grand total of ... one vote!

However, there remain any number of contingencies that make these estimates highly imprecise:

1. There were some challenges made by each candidate that apparently ended in the opponent's pile ... some Coleman challenges, for instance, in Franken's stack of ballots. I am confused by these and have tried to avoid counting them for now, but they could certainly make a difference of 5-10 ballots at the margins.

2. Coleman in particular has had a lot of "blue folder" ballots, which will not be addressed until after Christmas. Although my hunch is that very few blue folder challenges are liable to be successful (they probably point toward issues that are outside of the Canvassing Board's jurisdiction), it is hard to know for certain.

3. Both campaigns are now talking about adding back challenges that they had previously withdrawn.

4. We don't know if the Coleman challenges counted so far are representative of his efforts as a whole. (For what it's worth, the Board has not yet addressed any Coleman challenges from Minneapolis, St. Paul, or Duluth, which are highly blue cities that may lower Coleman's success rate).

5. There is no way to independently verify the Franken campaign's estimate that it was ahead by 4 ballots assuming that all challenges would be rejected.

6. We have not accounted for "fifth pile" absentee ballots that, if and when they are counted, could produce a net gain of as many as 100 votes (or more) for Franken.

7. Pretty much everything that has happened so far, and everything that happens from here on out, can and quite possibly will be the subject of a court challenge.

But other than that, we've got it all figured out...


http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/minnesota-lunchtime-update-its-gonna-be.html
It would be unwise to underestimate what large groups of ill-informed people acting together can achieve. -- John D'Oh, January 14, 2010.
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jon-nyc
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Cheers
Just wake me when its over. I really don't have the stomach for the contest.
In my defense, I was left unsupervised.
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Mark
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HOLY CARP!!!
Ugh. Another extreme left-wing nutjob. Just what we need! :puke:
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When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. H.G. Wells
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QuirtEvans
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I Owe It All To John D'Oh
Mark
Dec 18 2008, 02:20 PM
Ugh. Another extreme left-wing nutjob. Just what we need! :puke:
One vote closer to no filibusters is a good thing.

The filibuster has been perverted beyond its original purpose. It's time for it to go.
It would be unwise to underestimate what large groups of ill-informed people acting together can achieve. -- John D'Oh, January 14, 2010.
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Mark
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HOLY CARP!!!
Not when you are talking about FDR style sweeping change.
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When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. H.G. Wells
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QuirtEvans
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I Owe It All To John D'Oh
You'll learn to enjoy the yoke of oppression, Mark.
It would be unwise to underestimate what large groups of ill-informed people acting together can achieve. -- John D'Oh, January 14, 2010.
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Mark
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HOLY CARP!!!
Never.
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o 0
When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. H.G. Wells
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ivorythumper
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I am so adjective that I verb nouns!
"Seantor"?
The dogma lives loudly within me.
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George K
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Finally
QuirtEvans
Dec 18 2008, 02:25 PM
The filibuster has been perverted beyond its original purpose. It's time for it to go.
IIRC, you didn't have much of a problem with it when the Republicans controlled Congress. Obviously, only the Republicans are perverts.
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Kincaid
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HOLY CARP!!!
The article admits that any one of several scenarios makes the predictions "highly imprecise". Why bother reporting until there is something that is known?
Kincaid - disgusted Republican Partisan since 2006.
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QuirtEvans
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I Owe It All To John D'Oh
George K
Dec 18 2008, 02:51 PM
QuirtEvans
Dec 18 2008, 02:25 PM
The filibuster has been perverted beyond its original purpose. It's time for it to go.
IIRC, you didn't have much of a problem with it when the Republicans controlled Congress. Obviously, only the Republicans are perverts.
You recall incorrectly. It doesn't matter who's in charge. The filibuster was supposed to be only for exceptional circumstances. I believe I said that in 2005, when the Dems were in the minority.
It would be unwise to underestimate what large groups of ill-informed people acting together can achieve. -- John D'Oh, January 14, 2010.
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QuirtEvans
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I Owe It All To John D'Oh
ivorythumper
Dec 18 2008, 02:48 PM
"Seantor"?
Fixed.
It would be unwise to underestimate what large groups of ill-informed people acting together can achieve. -- John D'Oh, January 14, 2010.
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ivorythumper
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I am so adjective that I verb nouns!
Happy 20,010th.
The dogma lives loudly within me.
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OperaTenor
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Pisa-Carp
Happy 26,488th, IT!



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