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Is The Filibuster-Proof Senate Attainable?; Maybe, Rabbit, Maybe
Topic Started: Oct 6 2008, 01:07 PM (226 Views)
QuirtEvans
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I Owe It All To John D'Oh
Hat tip to Rick Zimmer at the other place.

Dems could hit 60 Senate seats
By JIM VANDEHEI & MIKE ALLEN

The possibility that Democrats will build a muscular, 60-seat Senate majority is looking increasing plausible, with new polls showing a powerful surge for the party’s candidates in Minnesota, Kentucky and other states.

A poll out Friday shows Sen. Norm Coleman could now easily lose his Minnesota seat to comedian-turned-candidate Al Franken. A Colorado race that initially looked like a nail-biter has now broken decisively for the Democrats. A top official in the McCain camp told us Sen. Elizabeth Dole is virtually certain to lose in conservative North Carolina.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky has seen his race tighten dangerously close over the past week — and Democrats are considering moving more money into the state very soon. And there is even talk that Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss is beatable in conservative Georgia after backing the economic bailout package opposed by many voters.

“Before the economic crisis, we had a number of races moving our way,” said Matthew Miller, communications director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “But now we’re seeing Republican numbers plummet.” GOP officials largely agree.

Senate races don’t grab national attention like the White House battle does. But if these trends hold, the Senate outcome could be almost as important to Washington governance as the presidential winner will be. It takes 60 votes to pass anything through the slow-moving Senate. So the closer the Democrats get to the number, the more power they will have next year to put their stamp on the country.

Democrats say their candidates are benefiting from the wipeout on Wall Street with a single message in every region of the country: “These are the Bush policies coming home to roost.” Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told Politico: “Americans know that in economically difficult times, we need a change from George Bush’s policies. And incumbents who have voted for six years with Bush, up and down the line, are having a difficult time trying to convince the electorate that they’ve changed their spots."

The trends reflect the growing fear of among top Republicans that their prospects could crater on Nov. 4, with Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) running weakly at the top of the ticket, President Bush as unpopular as ever and the economic crisis serving as a last-minute propellant for the change message of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.).

With Republicans fearing the loss of 17 to 21 House seats, January 2009 could bring Democrats a dominance over Washington that neither party has experienced since the Reagan years.

Rebecca Fisher, communications director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee: “Our tracking polls would pretty much dispute most of your premise since we aren’t seeing any drop due to bailout. Our races have remained consistent throughout the country.”

The current Senate lineup is 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans and two independents who caucus with Democrats.

Democrats need to pick up nine seats to hit 60 votes. Republicans have been bracing for big losses, but it wasn’t until the past few days that they have started to privately sound the alarms that the bottom could fall out on Election Day.

GOP Senate candidates are getting pounded by the same waves of public discontent over the economy and Bush that could sink McCain, and it shows in polls from coast to coast.

Republicans fully expect to lose Virginia and New Mexico. They think there is a pretty strong chance that they also lose Colorado, Alaska, New Hampshire, Oregon and North Carolina.

This means everyone should keep their eyes on Minnesota, Kentucky, Mississippi and Georgia over the final month of this campaign to see if a wave is coming.

Several Republican strategists close to the White House said there is increasing fear among party leaders about a bloodbath. But they added that they hope to keep losses to as few as five or six seats, rather than the nine that Democrats would need to gain to reach the magic number of 60 seats.

These strategists hope the Minnesota poll out Saturday overstates Franken’s strength, because it was taken at the height of turmoil over the bailout bill that Bush finally signed Friday.

“It reflects a lot of intense unhappiness that will fade as the market restores some equilibrium,” a Republican official said.

But that same timing is very dangerous for Sen. Gordon Smith (R-Ore.), because his state has mail voting with a heavy early vote, meaning he has less time to recover from angst about the Wall Street wipeout.

Republicans say they have become more optimistic in recent days about Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.), who had been considered one of the party's most endangered incumbents.

Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) will certainly lose if he is convicted in a corruption trial now under way in Washington but will probably win if he is acquitted, the strategists said.

Top Republicans say they have no hope for Dole in North Carolina. “There’s no point in even counting the votes,” said a top McCain official.

Republicans said they hope to make up for one loss by persuading Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) to caucus with them. He has campaigned vigorously for McCain, and Democratic Party leaders have vowed to punish him.

One indication of the Republicans’ mood: They’re already looking past this grim election season.

“2010 looks pretty good for us to pick up three or four or five seats pretty easily,” the McCain official said.
It would be unwise to underestimate what large groups of ill-informed people acting together can achieve. -- John D'Oh, January 14, 2010.
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George K
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Finally
Time to start making the shopping list of all the things that the Democratic government is going to fix.
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"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... "
- Mik, 6/14/08


Nothing is as effective as homeopathy.

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jon-nyc
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Cheers
The only possible good that could come out of this would be health care reform.

Otherwise, I prefer a smaller majority.
In my defense, I was left unsupervised.
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QuirtEvans
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I Owe It All To John D'Oh
jon-nyc
Oct 6 2008, 04:28 PM
The only possible good that could come out of this would be health care reform.

Otherwise, I prefer a smaller majority.

If Obama wins, the other good is judges that cannot be blocked.
It would be unwise to underestimate what large groups of ill-informed people acting together can achieve. -- John D'Oh, January 14, 2010.
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Kincaid
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HOLY CARP!!!
So Quirt, if Obama wins and our guy loses, would a filibuster-proof Senate be a consolation prize for you?
Kincaid - disgusted Republican Partisan since 2006.
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Improviso
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HOLY CARP!!!
QuirtEvans
Oct 6 2008, 05:07 PM
A poll out Friday shows Sen. Norm Coleman could now easily lose his Minnesota seat to comedian-turned-candidate Al Franken.

Crap... just shoot me now. :doh:
Identifying narcissists isn't difficult. Just look for the person who is constantly fishing for compliments
and admiration while breaking down over even the slightest bit of criticism.

We have the freedom to choose our actions, but we do not get to choose our consequences.
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George K
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Finally
Improviso
Oct 6 2008, 07:11 PM
QuirtEvans
Oct 6 2008, 05:07 PM
A poll out Friday shows Sen. Norm Coleman could now easily lose his Minnesota seat to comedian-turned-candidate Al Franken.

Crap... just shoot me now. :doh:

The Star Tribune has a history of polling those who will give them the answer they want to hear.

Quote:
 
Doing a little big of digging, we have obtained the internals of the September 15 Princeton Survey Research poll (in which Coleman led by four points) and today's Princeton Survey Research poll. The September 15 poll had a party identification breakdown between Democrats and Republicans of 34-31. In today's poll the party identification breakdown between Democrats and Republicans is 42-26. (Michael Brodkorb has posted a Coleman campaign memo with the Princeton Survey Research internals here.) The shift in the breakdown of the sample tracks the difference in the results reported and raises the question whether Minnesotans have shifted party identification by 13 points in the past three weeks or whether the current poll sample is invalid.
A guide to GKSR: Click

"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... "
- Mik, 6/14/08


Nothing is as effective as homeopathy.

I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles.
- Klaus, 4/29/18
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QuirtEvans
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I Owe It All To John D'Oh
Kincaid
Oct 6 2008, 07:06 PM
So Quirt, if Obama wins and our guy loses, would a filibuster-proof Senate be a consolation prize for you?

Yes.

But I want both.
It would be unwise to underestimate what large groups of ill-informed people acting together can achieve. -- John D'Oh, January 14, 2010.
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JBryan
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I am the grey one
Are you sure you don't want veto proof?

I don't think you will get anything like it but you should be happy with how the Presidential race turns out.
"Any man who would make an X rated movie should be forced to take his daughter to see it". - John Wayne


There is a line we cross when we go from "I will believe it when I see it" to "I will see it when I believe it".


Henry II: I marvel at you after all these years. Still like a democratic drawbridge: going down for everybody.

Eleanor: At my age there's not much traffic anymore.

From The Lion in Winter.
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QuirtEvans
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I Owe It All To John D'Oh
JBryan
Oct 6 2008, 08:30 PM
Are you sure you don't want veto proof?

I don't think you will get anything like it but you should be happy with how the Presidential race turns out.

Hey, I might want 90 Democrats in the Senate, but I have to live with what's at least theoretically attainable.
It would be unwise to underestimate what large groups of ill-informed people acting together can achieve. -- John D'Oh, January 14, 2010.
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brenda
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..............
Improviso
Oct 6 2008, 04:11 PM
QuirtEvans
Oct 6 2008, 05:07 PM
A poll out Friday shows Sen. Norm Coleman could now easily lose his Minnesota seat to comedian-turned-candidate Al Franken.


A real Minnesoootan knows not to trust any polls from the Star. They are very poorly done and not credible.
“Weeds are flowers, too, once you get to know them.”
~A.A. Milne
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Lindy
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Middle Aged Carp
brenda
Oct 6 2008, 10:05 PM
Improviso
Oct 6 2008, 04:11 PM
QuirtEvans
Oct 6 2008, 05:07 PM
A poll out Friday shows Sen. Norm Coleman could now easily lose his Minnesota seat to comedian-turned-candidate Al Franken.


A real Minnesoootan knows not to trust any polls from the Star. They are very poorly done and not credible.

Didn't Minnesotans learn anything about celebrity/stunt politicians from their experience with Jesse? :puke:

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Ben
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Senior Carp
Sweet baby Jesus, I hope no party for the rest of my lifetime ever gets 60 Senate seats. I like a balance of power.
- Ben

"Playing 'bop' is like playing Scrabble with all the vowels missing." - Duke Ellington

bennieloohoo@gmail.com
Or you can just PM me. :P
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