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| Record Drop in House Prices in October | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Dec 26 2007, 08:58 AM (1,058 Views) | |
| Frank_W | Dec 26 2007, 05:24 PM Post #26 |
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Resident Misanthrope
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Roger and copy dat!! I suppose there's a certain nobility to working like a dog, but I'd like the opportunity to get bored with a life of luxury. LOL |
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Anatomy Prof: "The human body has about 20 sq. meters of skin." Me: "Man, that's a lot of lampshades!" | |
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| TomK | Dec 26 2007, 05:28 PM Post #27 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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I go fishing most Wednesdays from the marina at the foot of the Boca Grande bridge. I fish near the old train causeway for grouper and reds further in back. Me and my good time buddies usually eat lunch at the Tarpon Tide Grille on Boca--you can dock you boat, have lunch and shove off. All I've seen of the island is the inside of bar room of the Tarpon Tide but from what I understand, it's a nice place. |
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| TomK | Dec 26 2007, 05:31 PM Post #28 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Worse: stock brokers. At least dope dealers actually give you something for your money. :lol: Anyway--some pretty high prices Real Estate. This place cost a mill and a half. ![]() |
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| Jack Frost | Dec 26 2007, 06:04 PM Post #29 |
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Bull-Carp
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Unless you bought "a year and a half ago" with 10% down and now want to sell.... jf |
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| QuirtEvans | Dec 27 2007, 07:59 AM Post #30 |
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I Owe It All To John D'Oh
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Apparently, the Wall Street Journal, as well as many economists who concentrate on the housing market, disagree with you that there's nothing to see.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1198677794...=hpp_us_pageone Was that Phoenix she mentioned? It so happens that one of my close friends is a real estate developer in Phoenix, and he confirms the reported trend there. |
| It would be unwise to underestimate what large groups of ill-informed people acting together can achieve. -- John D'Oh, January 14, 2010. | |
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| Larry | Dec 27 2007, 08:04 AM Post #31 |
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Mmmmmmm, pie!
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There are opportunities to make money hand over fist from this, for those who know how.... I know how.......... |
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Of the Pokatwat Tribe | |
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| ivorythumper | Dec 27 2007, 08:46 AM Post #32 |
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I am so adjective that I verb nouns!
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Quirt: You might not have noticed that Case-Shiller is looking at 10 cities (Phoenix not being one of them). I am not sure why you think this is truly indicative data of anything but the real estate market in those 10 cities. The OFHEO numbers are national, and filter out the speculators and high end volatility, as well as don't value weight but treat all sales as the same sort of data (some econs think that is valid, others don't, choose your poison). Those numbers show a 1.8% increase over last year at the end of 3Q 07. It will of course be interesting to see how their 4Q 07 numbers look, which would include Oct 07. Another source you might look at is RPX, which tracks actual sales based on $/sf in 25 metro areas. According to RPX, Phoenix was only down 2.5% Sept06 to Sept 07. BTW, the residential bulk real estate developers here have either pulled up stakes or gone to the ground to wait out the duration. Some of them bought vast acreage (Pulte/Del Webb) bought something like 750,000 acres south west of Phoenix and can now only hold it until the market absorbs. I can understand why your buddy is down in the dumps, but I am not sure what your point is. No one is doubting a market correction, and speculators and those who have to sell are not getting the prices they had hoped for. So? Overall nationally housing prices are still up 1.8% for actual transactions -- that means people are still willing to purchase for 1.8% more than they would have last year. Average people in average homes who buy homes for basic living -- not speculators looking to flip, not million dollar properties. What in the WSJ article you quotes contradicts what I have been saying all along? |
| The dogma lives loudly within me. | |
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| QuirtEvans | Dec 27 2007, 09:17 AM Post #33 |
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I Owe It All To John D'Oh
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There is a concept in statistics of sample size. I'd explain it, but I'm sure you are already familiar with it. At any rate, 10 cities may very well be a valid sample of the country as a whole. Quibbling with the validity of the sample is certainly one way to go, although I'd venture that they know a lot more about nationwide housing markets, and are better positioned to determine the appropriate sample. Quibbling with the concept of a sample seems petty and ignorant.
The third quarter ends Sept 30. The data I've been citing is as of Oct 31. There were some important events in October.
He isn't. He does commercial real estate (and golf course developments). He's based in Phoenix, but he does projects all over the place.
The entire article contradicts your assertion that there's nothing to see here. The fact that it is on page one of the Wall Street Journal contradicts your assertion that there's nothing to see here. And the title of the article ... "Pace of Decline In Home Prices Sets a Record" ... contradicts everything that you've been saying about the notion that there's nothing to see here, and that "nationally housing prices are still up 1.8% for actual transactions". |
| It would be unwise to underestimate what large groups of ill-informed people acting together can achieve. -- John D'Oh, January 14, 2010. | |
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| ivorythumper | Dec 27 2007, 09:46 AM Post #34 |
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I am so adjective that I verb nouns!
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I am not quibbling with the sample -- obviously according to the data of Case Shiller based on their selective data in 10 cities they are stating X result. Other studies, such as OFHEO show other results. You might think that a 10 city sampling produces a better understanding of the overall market than another study that is comprehensive nationally. If so, I'd like to understand your rationale for thinking that. You might also quite legitimately think that jumbo loans and other nonconformings which are typical of speculator development should be included in the data to give an accurate picture of what the real movements are in the market; and you might think that value weighting also gives a more accurate picture of overall movements in housing prices. I'd like to know why you thinks so, since these are certainly counterintuitive notions. I already noted that -- " It will of course be interesting to see how their 4Q 07 numbers look, which would include Oct 07. " What in your estimation were these important events? I don't recall anything momentous happening in October.
All there is to see according to your article is a correction after a hyperactive market. I already said that. My numbers are based on OFHEO. You can argue against those guys if you don't like those numbers. You might not realize it, but both statements can be true -- the the Case Schiller 10 Cities show a 6.9% decline and the OFHEO national study shows a 1.8% increase. These are not contradictory statements. You don't have to trust me on this, Quirt, you can look for it yourself. According to OFHEO I am not wrong. |
| The dogma lives loudly within me. | |
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| Daniel | Dec 27 2007, 09:46 AM Post #35 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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| Free Rider | Dec 27 2007, 10:15 AM Post #36 |
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Fulla-Carp
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I live in a bubble of its own. http://www.jacksonholereport.com/ |
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| Aqua Letifer | Dec 27 2007, 10:21 AM Post #37 |
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ZOOOOOM!
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You live in/around Jackson Hole?? Why you lucky bastard! Acres and acres of White Gold at your skitips! You have Corbet's right in your backyard, too. |
| I cite irreconcilable differences. | |
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| Free Rider | Dec 27 2007, 10:30 AM Post #38 |
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Fulla-Carp
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Yes. I work P/T for the ski corp. I ski a lot. But if I didn't that would be like living on Maui and not surfing. here's another link. Kinda cold today, I'm letting it warm up. http://www.jacksonhole.com/weather.snow.report.asp |
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| justme | Dec 27 2007, 10:43 AM Post #39 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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OMGosh! You're not kidding!!! I nominate Free Rider's for the next Coffee Room gathering.
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"Men sway more towards hussies." G-D3 | |
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| Aqua Letifer | Dec 27 2007, 10:44 AM Post #40 |
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ZOOOOOM!
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SECOND! If so I'm dusting off my K2s. They're not getting any use around these parts, that's for darn sure. |
| I cite irreconcilable differences. | |
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| Free Rider | Dec 27 2007, 10:51 AM Post #41 |
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Fulla-Carp
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Do you know how to change diapers? Because we'de love to have you!!! I live right in the town of Jackson, about 12 miles from the ski resort. It is a nice place to live, expensive, but nice. If any coffee roomers ever find thier way out into Jackson Hole, PM me and I will help with local info and secrets. |
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| justme | Dec 27 2007, 10:59 AM Post #42 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Do I know how to change diapers!!!! :lol: Mark and I spent some time in Jackson before we were married over 25 years ago. I remember eating at one of the fine restaurants. I had a rainbow trout that was out of this world. And the Caesar salad was a REAL Caesar salad made at the table. It's beautiful out there. Sadly this was during the summer so their was no skiing (other than maybe some grass skiers). Mark has skied there tho', it's among his favorite places to ski for sure. Let me know if you need a babysitter. I can be a regular Mary Poppins if needed :lol: :lol: :lol: |
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"Men sway more towards hussies." G-D3 | |
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| Daniel | Dec 27 2007, 11:02 AM Post #43 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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For better or worse so do I. |
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| Free Rider | Dec 27 2007, 11:02 AM Post #44 |
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Fulla-Carp
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Is this the Mark who posts here and likes Ron Paul? I can't put all of the coffee-room marriages/relationships together. Is Plays88keys marries to Ivorythumper? What about musicasacra and improviso? I should start another thread. |
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| Daniel | Dec 27 2007, 11:04 AM Post #45 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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No, but Rick is my boyfriend. ![]() |
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| Aqua Letifer | Dec 27 2007, 11:05 AM Post #46 |
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ZOOOOOM!
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Other way around. MS and IT, plays and improv, M&M's and Luke's Dad, kathyk and jack frost... who'd I forget? |
| I cite irreconcilable differences. | |
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| justme | Dec 27 2007, 11:07 AM Post #47 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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No. My Mark has only posted once or twice at the most and his on-line name is STBXX given to him by Dewey. Meaning Soon-To-Be-Ex-Ex.
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"Men sway more towards hussies." G-D3 | |
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| QuirtEvans | Dec 27 2007, 11:08 AM Post #48 |
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I Owe It All To John D'Oh
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I'm assuming at least part of your post is intentional. As for the first part, there are at least three Marks. There's Mark from Wisconsin ... the Ron Paul fanboi. He's the only Mark who posts here. There is Markb from D.C. Both Mark and Markb post over at WTF. And then there's justme's Mark who, as far as I know, doesn't post in either place. |
| It would be unwise to underestimate what large groups of ill-informed people acting together can achieve. -- John D'Oh, January 14, 2010. | |
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| QuirtEvans | Dec 27 2007, 11:09 AM Post #49 |
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I Owe It All To John D'Oh
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John D'Oh and Jane D'Oh. |
| It would be unwise to underestimate what large groups of ill-informed people acting together can achieve. -- John D'Oh, January 14, 2010. | |
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| Optimistic | Dec 27 2007, 11:10 AM Post #50 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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*AHEM* Justme may be a fantastic grandmother, but I am a PROFESSIONAL nanny. |
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PHOTOS I must have a prodigious quantity of mind; it takes me as much as a week, sometimes, to make it up. - Mark Twain We shall not cease from exploration And the end of all our exploring Will be to arrive where we started And know the place for the first time. -T. S. Eliot | |
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