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| Record Drop in House Prices in October | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Dec 26 2007, 08:58 AM (1,054 Views) | |
| QuirtEvans | Dec 26 2007, 08:58 AM Post #1 |
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I Owe It All To John D'Oh
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6.7%. http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/26/real_estat...dex.htm?cnn=yes |
| It would be unwise to underestimate what large groups of ill-informed people acting together can achieve. -- John D'Oh, January 14, 2010. | |
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| The 89th Key | Dec 26 2007, 09:00 AM Post #2 |
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I'm looking to buy a condo or townhouse in the next 2 years, when do you think might be the best time to buy? That is...when do you think the rebound will start? |
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| Jack Frost | Dec 26 2007, 09:03 AM Post #3 |
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Bull-Carp
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I don't think we have hit bottom, but it's a tough call. When prices are down 25% in your area I would go for it. jf |
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| Aqua Letifer | Dec 26 2007, 09:04 AM Post #4 |
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ZOOOOOM!
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[Capt. Obvious]When prices start to go back up.[Capt. Obvious] |
| I cite irreconcilable differences. | |
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| The 89th Key | Dec 26 2007, 09:12 AM Post #5 |
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Thanks JF. No thanks Aqua (:P), I was asking when they expect that to be. Next fall? Jan 2009? Another thought is what the presidential election's effect on the market will be. |
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| justme | Dec 26 2007, 09:24 AM Post #6 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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prices here in SW Florida have plummeted almost 30% It's a bad time. Great for buyers but......................... We're still not sure if we've hit bottom.
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"Men sway more towards hussies." G-D3 | |
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| Jack Frost | Dec 26 2007, 09:58 AM Post #7 |
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Bull-Carp
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No idea. If I knew I would quit my day job and get rich. Don't worry about the exact bottom because you will never get it right. Once prices are down 25% or so, I believe they are close enough to any bottom to go for it. If they fall even more, they should recover quickly when things turn around. jf |
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| ivorythumper | Dec 26 2007, 10:02 AM Post #8 |
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I am so adjective that I verb nouns!
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Our house is down about 14% from the high which was this time last year, but still up 35% from when we bought 3 1/2 years ago. Phoenix is not a great market right now, but I guess better than a lot of places. |
| The dogma lives loudly within me. | |
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| JBryan | Dec 26 2007, 10:24 AM Post #9 |
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I am the grey one
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I have seen no effect on the value of my house. If anything it has appreciated slightly. |
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"Any man who would make an X rated movie should be forced to take his daughter to see it". - John Wayne There is a line we cross when we go from "I will believe it when I see it" to "I will see it when I believe it". Henry II: I marvel at you after all these years. Still like a democratic drawbridge: going down for everybody. Eleanor: At my age there's not much traffic anymore. From The Lion in Winter. | |
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| ivorythumper | Dec 26 2007, 11:53 AM Post #10 |
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I am so adjective that I verb nouns!
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If you look at Zillow, prices in the past year nationally are only down 6%. Over five years up 60% from a high in 3rd Q '06 of 74%. I am always leery when percentage changes are bandied about. |
| The dogma lives loudly within me. | |
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| QuirtEvans | Dec 26 2007, 01:48 PM Post #11 |
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I Owe It All To John D'Oh
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Someone didn't read the story! The very first sentence:
Year-to-year. |
| It would be unwise to underestimate what large groups of ill-informed people acting together can achieve. -- John D'Oh, January 14, 2010. | |
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| ivorythumper | Dec 26 2007, 01:53 PM Post #12 |
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I am so adjective that I verb nouns!
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I did read that, and the sentence is very poorly constructed. If that is what is intended, then home prices did not fall 6.7% in October, and there was no record drop in October.
![]() Move along folks, there's nothing here to see. |
| The dogma lives loudly within me. | |
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| jon-nyc | Dec 26 2007, 01:58 PM Post #13 |
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Cheers
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My prediction nationally* is 4Q08 or 1Q09, pending a real bail out of some sort, which in an election year is not out of the question. *DC may be a different story. |
| In my defense, I was left unsupervised. | |
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| justme | Dec 26 2007, 02:04 PM Post #14 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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zillow is waaaay off at least in our area. Prices are either way inflated or appraisers down here are being extremely conservative. They can be off as much as 20%. Housevalues.com the same. |
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"Men sway more towards hussies." G-D3 | |
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| Rainman | Dec 26 2007, 02:21 PM Post #15 |
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Fulla-Carp
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I dunno. I look at the real estate flyers in the newspaper, and see junky shack piece of carp houses listed for $200k and wonder what first-time home buyer would be willing to mortgage their heart and soul to own such carp? And this is the "bottom end" of the price range?? It's been a great ride for those that rode the rocket, but what about those average wage earners coming into the market over the next several years. What are they suppose to do? What effect will there be on the real estate market overall, when the young are simply not able or are unwilling to buy (or unwilling to justify buying a house that looks like $40k but is listed at $250k?). |
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| TomK | Dec 26 2007, 02:21 PM Post #16 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Exactly. For the most part this entire real estate "crisis" is as much a hoax as the real estate "bubble" of a year and a half ago. |
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| justme | Dec 26 2007, 02:32 PM Post #17 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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I'm not going to argue but I will say Mark and I face this every single day down here in SW Florida and things are very bad. It's all a matter of where you live. And we are flooded with houses for sale at inflated prices that don't appraise out. It's one in twenty, if that, that appraises out at what the seller wants. Now, on the most part everybody is trying to put a good face on it and yadayadayada but it's bad and I don't see it getting any better until 2009. And, I'm usually a pretty optimistic individual. |
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"Men sway more towards hussies." G-D3 | |
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| TomK | Dec 26 2007, 02:55 PM Post #18 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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I understand your point, Peggy. You are in the business and it's a bad business to be in--just as it was a wonderful business to be in 2 years ago. But, for most people the real estate situation is just a story in the newspaper. Your house is up 6 % down 6 %, interesting, but it doesn't matter unless you HAVE to sell your house or you are in the RS business. But over all over the past five years the prices of houses are up CONSIDERABLY, so only in the most dire situation are people actually loosing money. Only those would bought in the upmarket and need to sell in a hurry are getting hurt. Another thing--I'm no expert, but your part of the world Peggy, has no viable source of commerce or industry in the area, no real manufacturing, etc. Lots of second homes and lots of business that cater to snow birds--that kind of are gets hit the hardest. I've been in the commercial RS market in the North East for 25 years and sometimes the market is great--and then you sell and sometimes the market is bad then you hold. It always corrects itself in a year or two. The advantage of the commercial market is that even when you can't sell--you still collect rents. FWIW 89th, I think it's a good time to start shopping for something if you are in the market. There are good buys to be had out there. I'd buy a house over a condo each and every time. |
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| QuirtEvans | Dec 26 2007, 03:05 PM Post #19 |
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I Owe It All To John D'Oh
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If you live in Boca Raton, maybe it's not so bad. But in Detroit? If I remember correctly, something like 40% of the houses in one zip code are in foreclosure. People are mailing in their keys left and right. You can't predict a national trend based on Boca, or the Upper East Side. Or based on Detroit and Cleveland, for that matter.
Again, you need to read the article. The record was the year-to-year drop for any month on record. It had never been that large before, according to the article. You can quibble if you like about whether it was well-written ... although that seems like after-the-fact rationalization to me ... but the facts, as they say, are the facts. And that's either a fact, or it's not. If it's a fact, then the article is right, and you are wrong. |
| It would be unwise to underestimate what large groups of ill-informed people acting together can achieve. -- John D'Oh, January 14, 2010. | |
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| ivorythumper | Dec 26 2007, 03:54 PM Post #20 |
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I am so adjective that I verb nouns!
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Right -- no record drop in October, the drop happened over 12 months. I am not sure why you do not see the difference in stating "Record drop in October" over "Annualized record drop recorded in October" or something to that effect. I do not see any common use of "in October" that can mean "during the past year ending in October". That's no quibble, Quirt, that's common English. The headline is inaccurate and seems to be intentionally misleading. But the real story is this:
Furthermore, the OFHEO numbers are based on real prices for conventional conforming loans, which can presume to exclude much of the volatility in the jumbo loan and spec areas. Also, OFHEO are national numbers, Case-Shiller is totally lacking data on 13 states and has partial data on another 29 states. The OFHEO numbers show that the yearly national housing price comparison is still up 1.8% as of 3Q 2007 over the previous year. So the article is just looking at a meaningless historical comparison over 12 month given a select and incomplete set of data after a hyper active several years, and making a meaningless story about something that really does not seem to have happened 3 months ago. Move along, folks, nothing to see. |
| The dogma lives loudly within me. | |
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| justme | Dec 26 2007, 03:57 PM Post #21 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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You're probably right. Out on Boca Grande (where the Bushes are getting ready to spend the week and TomK went fishing not too long ago) and a long the keys that border our coast things are much easier. Of course, those people are usually paying cash for their houses. And, Tom's correct, we don't have much industry down here at all. But even the commercial market seems to be suffering. We have a lot of little strip malls (ugly as anything) that have been built with in the past two years that lay vacant. I don't know anything about the commerical real estate market other than what I glean. The tourist industry is way up. A lot of Brits and Canadians down here right now. There are a lot less mid-Westerners than usual and we're even light on New Englanders. Lots and lots of Euros tho'. |
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"Men sway more towards hussies." G-D3 | |
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| Frank_W | Dec 26 2007, 04:33 PM Post #22 |
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Resident Misanthrope
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I wish I could have paid cash for my house... Sheesh... I wonder what some of these people do for a living?
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Anatomy Prof: "The human body has about 20 sq. meters of skin." Me: "Man, that's a lot of lampshades!" | |
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| JBryan | Dec 26 2007, 04:47 PM Post #23 |
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I am the grey one
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Dope dealers. |
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"Any man who would make an X rated movie should be forced to take his daughter to see it". - John Wayne There is a line we cross when we go from "I will believe it when I see it" to "I will see it when I believe it". Henry II: I marvel at you after all these years. Still like a democratic drawbridge: going down for everybody. Eleanor: At my age there's not much traffic anymore. From The Lion in Winter. | |
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| Frank_W | Dec 26 2007, 04:54 PM Post #24 |
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Resident Misanthrope
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Sheesh.... No kidding... Just once, I'd like to know what it's like to be disgustingly, piggishly, outrageously, stinking, rotten, filthy rich. Have you ever seen Tiger Woods' house? Man....
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Anatomy Prof: "The human body has about 20 sq. meters of skin." Me: "Man, that's a lot of lampshades!" | |
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| JBryan | Dec 26 2007, 05:00 PM Post #25 |
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I am the grey one
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They say it isn't all it's cracked up to be but I would like to test drive it for a while anyway. |
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"Any man who would make an X rated movie should be forced to take his daughter to see it". - John Wayne There is a line we cross when we go from "I will believe it when I see it" to "I will see it when I believe it". Henry II: I marvel at you after all these years. Still like a democratic drawbridge: going down for everybody. Eleanor: At my age there's not much traffic anymore. From The Lion in Winter. | |
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