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| GOP Premortem; as read by Glenn Reynolds | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Oct 14 2006, 06:54 PM (251 Views) | |
| George K | Oct 14 2006, 06:54 PM Post #1 |
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Finally
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A GOP PRE-MORTEM: So is it over for the GOP majorities in Congress? It's still too early to say, I guess, but when even John Hinderaker is sounding extremely gloomy that's certainly the way to bet. So I want to stress, for the edification of any Republican leaders who might pay attention, that this is the result of a series of unforced errors on their part. Following is a (partial) list: 1. The Terri Schiavo affair: The bitterness it aroused, which was substantial, opened a fracture in the GOP coalition: Social-conservatives against the rest. And as I noted at the time, the social conservatives were pretty nasty to the rest. No, it wasn't really a case of "theocracy" at work, as people like Ralph Nader agreed with the social conservatives. But the haste to enact federal legislation over a matter of state law, and the mean-spiritedness with which those who disagreed were treated, did the Bush coalition no good. What's more, as I noted at the time (see first link above), this wasn't enough to make the social conservatives happy anyway. Politically, I think this marked the beginning of the end. 2. The Harriet Miers debacle: Plenty of warning in the blogs that this was a big mistake, but all ignored by the White House and Congressional leadership. Social conservatives were mad here, and so was anyone who cared about the credentials of nominees. The nomination was withdrawn, but the damage was done. 3. The Dubai Ports disaster: Here I think that the Administration was on defensible ground from a policy perspective, but its ham-handed approach -- once again ignoring early warnings from the blogs -- turned it into a mess, and cost it major credibility with its national security constituency. The Administraiton was bumbling and inept in addressing this matter, which gained currency because of its flaccid stance on the cartoon Jihad. The consequence: Lost faith from its strongest constituency. 4. Immigration: Another unforced error. The national security constituency once again lost faith in the Administration. You can't talk about secure borders when the borders are porous. The Administration also failed to make a strong clear argument for immigration, outsourcing that to the Wall Street Journal, which did its best but couldn't do the President's job. Again, the White House's position on immigration was defensible in the abstract, but favoring easy immigration is one thing, favoring easy illegal immigration is another. 5. William Jefferson: A Democratic Congressman is caught in a bribery scandal with a freezer full of cash, and Dennis Hastert backs him up, making clear that protection of insider privilege is more important to the Republican leadership in Congress than either party or principle. The White House, at least, intervened here, eventually. Add to this the GOP leadership's failure to follow through on promised ethics reforms, and its addiction to pork-barrel spending, and you've got lots of reason to think that they don't stand for anything except stuffing their pockets. 6. Foleygate: Not much of a scandal in itself, but the last straw for a lot of people. As Rich Lowry noted, a long chain of missteps and self-serving actions has exhausted their stock of moral and political capital, leaving them vulnerable to, well, almost anything. This was probably enough. At the end of this process, the Republicans have managed to leave every segment of the base unhappy, mostly over things that weren't even all that important. It's as if they had some sort of bizarre death wish. Looks like the wish will come true . . . . As I've said before, the Republicans deserve to lose, though alas the Democrats don't really deserve to win, either. I realize that you go to war with the political class you have, but even back in the 1990s it was obvious that we had a lousy political class. It hasn't improved, but the challenges have gotten greater. Can the country continue to do well, with such bad political leadership? I hope so, because I see no sign of improvement, no matter who wins next month. |
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A guide to GKSR: Click "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08 Nothing is as effective as homeopathy. I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles. - Klaus, 4/29/18 | |
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| Jack Frost | Oct 14 2006, 07:08 PM Post #2 |
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Bull-Carp
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What a silly list. What about the decision to invade Iraq, selling it to the American public under false pretenses, and then completely botching it? That alone justifies a regime change. jf |
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| The 89th Key | Oct 14 2006, 07:12 PM Post #3 |
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The politicizing of the war and the placement of our national security under unnecessary additional jeopardy is reason enough to justify not voting in many liberals. |
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| George K | Oct 15 2006, 04:22 AM Post #4 |
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Finally
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![]() From Democracy for Americans. |
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A guide to GKSR: Click "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08 Nothing is as effective as homeopathy. I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles. - Klaus, 4/29/18 | |
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| John D'Oh | Oct 15 2006, 04:36 AM Post #5 |
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MAMIL
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So when the Democrats get in, and the world doesn't end, what are all the Republicans going to start worrying about? |
| What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket? | |
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| George K | Oct 15 2006, 04:38 AM Post #6 |
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Finally
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:lol: |
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A guide to GKSR: Click "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08 Nothing is as effective as homeopathy. I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles. - Klaus, 4/29/18 | |
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| jon-nyc | Oct 15 2006, 05:25 AM Post #7 |
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Cheers
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Content from Glenn Reynolds instead of just links? That seems highly unusual. |
| In my defense, I was left unsupervised. | |
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| George K | Oct 15 2006, 05:27 AM Post #8 |
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Finally
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I thought so too. |
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A guide to GKSR: Click "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08 Nothing is as effective as homeopathy. I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles. - Klaus, 4/29/18 | |
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| Mikhailoh | Oct 15 2006, 05:42 AM Post #9 |
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If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
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I think he makes good points regarding all these issues, but I don't get the sense that these are the issues voters are keying on. I do believe it will come down to national security. If the Dems had anything to offer.. any plan, any coherent platform, they would take at least the House, if not both houses. As far as I can see from what I read and from our state races, they offer nothing, not an idea to be seen. It is a weaker stance even than Kerry took in 2004, which at best amounted to 'I'd do what he did, but BETTER!'. |
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Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball | |
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| Jolly | Oct 15 2006, 06:02 AM Post #10 |
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Geaux Tigers!
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The Instapundit is always prolific, and mostly right. JF has missed the mark...most of the base is convinced the Iraq War was the right thing to do, and the war is not foremost on their minds as an administration mistake. Of the items listed, I don't think Schiavo or Miers makes much difference. The Dubia affair was bad politically when speaking of the general electorate. Among the base, however, the border issue has people positively seething, as does some of Bush's non-war fiscal spending. However.....all politics is local, and the election is still a few weeks off. The Senate will remain Republican, no doubt about it. The House? I'm basically optomistic...this is a base turnout election, since I don't think more than about a third or registered voters will bother to vote. If the GOP can turn out their base, the house remains Republican. I'd set the odds at about 50/50, which is pretty durn good for an off-year, with a second-term President. |
| The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros | |
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| JBryan | Oct 15 2006, 06:43 AM Post #11 |
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I am the grey one
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Jack, Reynolds is making a list of concerns held by the Republican base, not by the nut-bob loony left. We all know they are not going to vote for a Republican Congress even with a pistol to their heads. However, your "regime change" construction raises an interesting question. If Democrats take over Congress does that mean you would consider them a "regime". |
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"Any man who would make an X rated movie should be forced to take his daughter to see it". - John Wayne There is a line we cross when we go from "I will believe it when I see it" to "I will see it when I believe it". Henry II: I marvel at you after all these years. Still like a democratic drawbridge: going down for everybody. Eleanor: At my age there's not much traffic anymore. From The Lion in Winter. | |
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