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Something To Think About
Topic Started: Aug 11 2006, 08:14 AM (955 Views)
JBryan
Member Avatar
I am the grey one
Mikhailoh
Aug 11 2006, 01:24 PM
We would need to make clear to them that ANY intentional disruption of the flow of oil would bring the most severe consequences

And why would they take such a threat seriously after we had turned tail and left the region?
"Any man who would make an X rated movie should be forced to take his daughter to see it". - John Wayne


There is a line we cross when we go from "I will believe it when I see it" to "I will see it when I believe it".


Henry II: I marvel at you after all these years. Still like a democratic drawbridge: going down for everybody.

Eleanor: At my age there's not much traffic anymore.

From The Lion in Winter.
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TomK
HOLY CARP!!!
JBryan
Aug 11 2006, 02:21 PM
No, Tom. They hate America. They hate us. If you really believe that once they have finished with Israel they will leave us alone you are deluded. You only have to listen to what they are saying and believe it. This particular brand of islam can tolerate the presence in this world of no other religion or people not thoroughly in the Islamic faith.

Winston Churchill once said that appeasement was like feeding your friends to a crocodile one at a time in the hopes that you will be the last.

Maybe JB.

But I see this: Tuesday I had lunch with a business associate, a friend, a Palistinian, a graduate of U of Maryland. He does business with everybody, Jews Christians, etc.

He loves America, he loves everybody. He also said if he was back in Israel he would have no problem with slitting the throats of an Israeli West Bank settler family. Women and children included. More calamari! Otherwise he's a wonderful man.

How can you argue with that kind of hatred? Best just to back away.

Israel isn't America! And they may not be out friends.
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JBryan
Member Avatar
I am the grey one
Backing away only emboldens it, feeds it. We should have learned that by now.
"Any man who would make an X rated movie should be forced to take his daughter to see it". - John Wayne


There is a line we cross when we go from "I will believe it when I see it" to "I will see it when I believe it".


Henry II: I marvel at you after all these years. Still like a democratic drawbridge: going down for everybody.

Eleanor: At my age there's not much traffic anymore.

From The Lion in Winter.
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Mikhailoh
Member Avatar
If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
JBryan
Aug 11 2006, 02:29 PM
Mikhailoh
Aug 11 2006, 01:24 PM
We would need to make clear to them that ANY intentional disruption of the flow of oil would bring the most severe consequences

And why would they take such a threat seriously after we had turned tail and left the region?

Precisely.. an impossible scenario, my whole point.
Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball
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TomK
HOLY CARP!!!
JBryan
Aug 11 2006, 02:37 PM
Backing away only emboldens it, feeds it. We should have learned that by now.

JB,

I just don't believe that supporting a failed nation state like Israel can help America's position in the Arab world.

It's time we deal with Hamas and Hesbullah and Syria and Iran--we need things from them and they need things from us. If we deal with them like we dealt with the Soviet block--we'll win.

If we are the puppets of Israeli foreign policy we are in trouble.
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Luke's Dad
Member Avatar
Emperor Pengin
Quote:
 
My Jewish friends here, with deep contacts in Israel tell me they have never been more frightened in their entire lives, not for Israel, but for the Arabs.


Exactly.
The problem with having an open mind is that people keep trying to put things in it.
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Kincaid
Member Avatar
HOLY CARP!!!
Unfortunately, I think we will eventually have to get brutal in the Middle East. The line from Unforgiven comes to mind.

"I'm comin' outta here... an' any f**ker I see out there, I'm gonna kill him... an' any f**ker takes a shot at me, I ain't just gonna kill him, but I'm gonna kill his wife an' all his friends an' burn his f**king house, hear?"

Kincaid - disgusted Republican Partisan since 2006.
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JBryan
Member Avatar
I am the grey one
TomK
Aug 11 2006, 01:45 PM
JBryan
Aug 11 2006, 02:37 PM
Backing away only emboldens it, feeds it. We should have learned that by now.

JB,

I just don't believe that supporting a failed nation state like Israel can help America's position in the Arab world.

It's time we deal with Hamas and Hesbullah and Syria and Iran--we need things from them and they need things from us. If we deal with them like we dealt with the Soviet block--we'll win.

If we are the puppets of Israeli foreign policy we are in trouble.

You seem to be laboring under the misconception that we are dealing with rational people here. MAD worked with the Soviet Union because they were rational people who did not want to die. These guys don't care about, no, they welcome death. They want to bring about their version of Armageddon. When they acquire nukes that is just what they will do and doing business with us is way down on their list of priorities.
"Any man who would make an X rated movie should be forced to take his daughter to see it". - John Wayne


There is a line we cross when we go from "I will believe it when I see it" to "I will see it when I believe it".


Henry II: I marvel at you after all these years. Still like a democratic drawbridge: going down for everybody.

Eleanor: At my age there's not much traffic anymore.

From The Lion in Winter.
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TomK
HOLY CARP!!!
JBryan
Aug 11 2006, 03:01 PM
They want to bring about their version of Armageddon.

And how is their version of the future of Israel different than that of our Born again Christian friends? (Except in the details.)

We need to start treating these people like adults--wrongheaded, delusional adults--but adults. And while were at it--adults with guns. Let them have the world they want--is it our job to change their beliefs?

Don't back off--just stop treating them like children.
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Mikhailoh
Member Avatar
If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
The difference is we tend to leave the end of the world timing to God. We're not trying to get the ball rolling.. they are.
Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball
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David Burton
Senior Carp
TomK - "Let them have the world they want--is it our job to change their beliefs? Don't back off--just stop treating them like children."


Me too Tom, but these people "are" children.
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TomK
HOLY CARP!!!
Mikhailoh
Aug 11 2006, 03:22 PM
The difference is we tend to leave the end of the world timing to God. We're not trying to get the ball rolling.. they are.

I used to think--the Moslems are the bad guys, then I got to know a few, and I thought the Israelis were the bad guys--I was wrong both times. Now I see that each side is equally crazy--both sides just LOVE killing each other's children--and they will do so forever.

Imagine if the USA had killed as many civilian people as the Israelis did in their last little argument? Senate investigations up the whayzoo! Israelis use our money they use our guns and planes and bombs--they don't have to pay for them--they should be held to our standards.

But best we disengage from both sides and deal with the Moslem menace as a united American front--not as the pawns of any other countries foreign policy.
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TomK
HOLY CARP!!!
David Burton
Aug 11 2006, 03:29 PM
TomK - "Let them have the world they want--is it our job to change their beliefs? Don't back off--just stop treating them like children."


Me too Tom, but these people "are" children.

With all due respect my friend--those are fighting words. (To them.)
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Mikhailoh
Member Avatar
If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
By this point who is the bad guys and who is the good guys is close to irrelevant. When an enemy has declared their intent to destroy you and continues to try to strengthen themselves for the job, morality gives way to simple survival. If it comes to pass that we have to kill every last Muslim on the face of the earth for our culture to survive, well so be it. It is not my desire.. far from it.. but we have not declared war on anyone's way of life.. they have.

Without a clear lesson in the exercise of military power, we can simply expect Islamofascism to grow.
Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball
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AlbertaCrude
Bull-Carp
While it certainly feels like 5 minutes or less to the hour, the drawing of paralells with both WW I & II is tenuous.

I see no significant military alliances in place or emerging nor do I see real arms races between states. I see a lot of big talk but no significant industrial outputs or massive arms purchases from munitions whores like Russia. The only military alliance that exists in the world is NATO. There is no more Warsaw Pact and China is non allied. The Arab League certainly does not constitute a military alliance. Hell, it doesn't even constitute a political or economic allaince. The closest thing to a military alliance the Arabs ever managed to form was the United Arab Republic (Egypt, Syria and Libya) which vanished in flash following the death of Nasser and the Yom Kippur War. Iran too is isolated. For one it is not an Arab country- indeed linguistically Iranians are closer to English speakers than their Arabic speaking co-religionists in the region. Nor does it manage to maintain armed to the teeth neutrality as does Isreal. Its only advantage is that, and thanks to Saddam Hussein's culling of Iranians during the 1980's, it has a relatively young virile population that could provide the Ayatollohs with plenty of cannon fodder if a shooting war broke out. That this same young population is showing real signs of dissent with the whole concept of Khomeni style Islamic republicanism however mitigates whatever advantage a large population brings the country. So much for the WWI parallel.

Now to the WWII parallel or better, the horrific end to WWI following the 1918 ceasefire.

WWII was a conflict between the military superpowers of the day. Germany, the British Empire, France, the USSR, the USA and Japan.

Of course there was Italy; armed and militaristic but it could hardly be compared to any of the above named powers. Indeed Mussolini waited until France fell before he dared throw in his lot with Hitler. He then opportunistically invaded Albania then was promptly trounced by Greece and in desperate need of German protection for the rest of his numbered days. So much for Benito, but then he lacked common sense anyhow, unlike Spain's Franco- a constitional monarchist and soldier rather than a fascist at heart.

Throughout the 1930's the USSR too was barely a military power. It was too busy with its own internal problems that culminated in 1937 with Stalin's Great Terror that literally eviscerated the Soviet armed forces officer corps. Prior to the Winter War with Finland, the Soviets were even considering dismantling Tuchachevsky's (a liquidated Enemy of the People) tank divisions in favour of returning to Field Marshall Budionny's beloved horse cavalry! Always the micromanger, Stalin however refused to approve the directive and instead ordered that a new generation of Soviet tanks be developed. This of course resulted in the introduction and mass production of the T34 medium battle tank in 1941.

Today the world still has a functional international body, the UN and the UNSC however decrepit and pockmarked it may be, that was absent in the years immediately leading up to WWII. Despite whatever angst is out there regarding the present situation in Iraq, the rationale to remove the contemporary version of Mussolini, Hussein, came about as as result of a series of UNSC resolutions upon which at least two Permanent Members of that body along with a coaltion of other UN members enforced. That is not appeasement nor is the open and backroom diplomacy regarding Irans (and North Korea's for that matter) ambitions. While there is no doubt that Iran's anti-Isreal rhetoric and support to Hezbollah is a specific and real threat to Isreal and that its stated nuclear ambitions, if realized, would be a serious military threat to both Isreal and the West alike, it is still pretty much an isolated entity in the still authoritarian and secular Arab world. Still Iran is no super power in the sense that Germany and Japan were. A pre-emptive Iranian attack against US and British coalition forces in Iraq would trigger two responses; 1) an immediate military response from NATO and 2) the real risk of a UNSC resolution that could involve Permanent Members such as Russia and China either to support or abstain from voting against UN sanctioned military intervention to remove the present Iranian government.

No I think that today's present predicament is sufficiently unique unto itself to warrant its own special place in the history of conflict.
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TomK
HOLY CARP!!!
AlbertaCrude
Aug 11 2006, 03:49 PM
While it certainly feels like 5 minutes or less to the hour, the drawing of paralells with both WW I & II is tenuous.

I see no significant military alliances in place or emerging nor do I see real arms races between states. I see a lot of big talk but no significant industrial outputs or massive arms purchases from munitions whores like Russia. The only military alliance that exists in the world is NATO. There is no more Warsaw Pact and China is non allied. The Arab League certainly does not constitute a military alliance. Hell, it doesn't even constitute a political or economic allaince. The closest thing to a military alliance the Arabs ever managed to form was the United Arab Republic (Egypt, Syria and Libya) which vanished in flash following the death of Nasser and the Yom Kippur War. Iran too is isolated. For one it is not an Arab country- indeed linguistically Iranians are closer to English speakers than their Arabic speaking co-religionists in the region. Nor does it manage to maintain armed to the teeth neutrality as does Isreal. Its only advantage is that, and thanks to Saddam Hussein's culling of Iranians during the 1980's, it has a relatively young virile population that could provide the Ayatollohs with plenty of cannon fodder if a shooting war broke out. That this same young population is showing real signs of dissent with the whole concept of Khomeni style Islamic republicanism however mitigates whatever advantage a large population brings the country. So much for the WWI parallel.

Now to the WWII parallel or better, the horrific end to WWI following the 1918 ceasefire.

WWII was a conflict between the military superpowers of the day. Germany, the British Empire, France, the USSR, the USA and Japan.

Of course there was Italy; armed and militaristic but it could hardly be compared to any of the above named powers. Indeed Mussolini waited until France fell before he dared throw in his lot with Hitler. He then opportunistically invaded Albania then was promptly trounced by Greece and in desperate need of German protection for the rest of his numbered days. So much for Benito, but then he lacked common sense anyhow, unlike Spain's Franco- a constitional monarchist and soldier rather than a fascist at heart.

Throughout the 1930's the USSR too was barely a military power. It was too busy with its own internal problems that culminated in 1937 with Stalin's Great Terror that literally eviscerated the Soviet armed forces officer corps. Prior to the Winter War with Finland, the Soviets were even considering dismantling Tuchachevsky's (a liquidated Enemy of the People) tank divisions in favour of returning to Field Marshall Budionny's beloved horse cavalry! Always the micromanger, Stalin however refused to approve the directive and instead ordered that a new generation of Soviet tanks be developed. This of course resulted in the introduction and mass production of the T34 medium battle tank in 1941.

Today the world still has a functional international body, the UN and the UNSC however decrepit and pockmarked it may be, that was absent in the years immediately leading up to WWII. Despite whatever angst is out there regarding the present situation in Iraq, the rationale to remove the contemporary version of Mussolini, Hussein, came about as as result of a series of UNSC resolutions upon which at least two Permanent Members of that body along with a coaltion of other UN members enforced. That is not appeasement nor is the open and backroom diplomacy regarding Irans (and North Korea's for that matter) ambitions. While there is no doubt that Iran's anti-Isreal rhetoric and support to Hezbollah is a specific and real threat to Isreal and that its stated nuclear ambitions, if realized, would be a serious military threat to both Isreal and the West alike, it is still pretty much an isolated entity in the still authoritarian and secular Arab world. Still Iran is no super power in the sense that Germany and Japan were. A pre-emptive Iranian attack against US and British coalition forces in Iraq would trigger two responses; 1) an immediate military response from NATO and 2) the real risk of a UNSC resolution that could involve Permanent Members such as Russia and China either to support or abstain from voting against UN sanctioned military intervention to remove the present Iranian government.

No I think that today's present predicament is sufficiently unique unto itself to warrant its own special place in the history of conflict.

AC

When kicked in the butt--you can produce the most brilliant answers. :thumb:
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JBryan
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I am the grey one
TomK
Aug 11 2006, 02:36 PM
Mikhailoh
Aug 11 2006, 03:22 PM
The difference is we tend to leave the end of the world timing to God. We're not trying to get the ball rolling.. they are.

I used to think--the Moslems are the bad guys, then I got to know a few, and I thought the Israelis were the bad guys--I was wrong both times. Now I see that each side is equally crazy--both sides just LOVE killing each other's children--and they will do so forever.

Imagine if the USA had killed as many civilian people as the Israelis did in their last little argument? Senate investigations up the whayzoo! Israelis use our money they use our guns and planes and bombs--they don't have to pay for them--they should be held to our standards.

But best we disengage from both sides and deal with the Moslem menace as a united American front--not as the pawns of any other countries foreign policy.

Tom, do you really believe Israelis target civilians the way their adversaries do? Don't tell me it doesn't make any difference when Hamas and Hezbollah deliberately manipulate the situation to maximze civilian casualties on their side all the while gleefully killing as many Israelis of any description as they can. The Israelis go out of their way in trying to prevent civilian casualties and even endanger the effectiveness of operations by giving warning well in advance. You really see equivalence in this?
"Any man who would make an X rated movie should be forced to take his daughter to see it". - John Wayne


There is a line we cross when we go from "I will believe it when I see it" to "I will see it when I believe it".


Henry II: I marvel at you after all these years. Still like a democratic drawbridge: going down for everybody.

Eleanor: At my age there's not much traffic anymore.

From The Lion in Winter.
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JBryan
Member Avatar
I am the grey one
AC, I agree the parallels are not precise but the key to this situation is a nuclear armed Iran. that coupled with the fanatical Islamic component makes for a situation every bit as dangerous as pre WWII. That is why Iran can under no circumstances be allowed to obtain nukes. As you said, their grip on their own country is not complete and it shows signs of unravelling. All bets are off, however, if Iran goes nuclear.
"Any man who would make an X rated movie should be forced to take his daughter to see it". - John Wayne


There is a line we cross when we go from "I will believe it when I see it" to "I will see it when I believe it".


Henry II: I marvel at you after all these years. Still like a democratic drawbridge: going down for everybody.

Eleanor: At my age there's not much traffic anymore.

From The Lion in Winter.
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David Burton
Senior Carp
TomK
Aug 11 2006, 11:38 AM
David Burton
Aug 11 2006, 03:29 PM
TomK - "Let them have the world they want--is it our job to change their beliefs?  Don't back off--just stop treating them like children."


Me too Tom, but these people "are" children.

With all due respect my friend--those are fighting words. (To them.)

My point exactly; if they act like children, including their inclinations to lose their tempers, fight each other, fight any who dare criticize them, fight any who dare consider taking ANY land away from them once it had become Moslem.

No, they will learn to "grow up" to become members of the civilized world (a multicultural world means that on religious issues nobody will have a claim to absolute truth), or they will be decimated, simple as that. Those above us all have been more than patient (while some of them cynically make more money on the conflicts; anyone including us, who armed them).

When it comes, and I expect Israel will be the cause and the justification for carrying it out, and it is they who will take it upon themselves and wont bother with anyone else's permission. It will be short and terrible, a matter of days that will shake the world. It may go nuclear but it will not result in a global nuclear exchange precisely because of MAD. Rational people don't want to die. Once the stupid UN is out of the way, and that's a matter of days if not hours, then Israel will execute its battle plan, beginning with a scorched earth policy in southern Lebanon, aimed at eviscerating Hezbollah.

Meanwhile everyone is now aware of the Iranian Hezbollah connection. The Middle East, the Arabs, Islam, all of it, is a far more complicated business. The Iran-Syria-Hezbollah conduit is known and will be a legitimate target of Israel war fighting strategy. Although no Syrians have shown up among the dead and wounded, some Iranians have. The Syrian government is no doubt buying whatever time it can to hold onto tenuous power as it faces the same forces. I expect they will be spared. I don't think the Iranians will be that lucky. As I've said, only a revolution that topples the theocratic madmen who currently run that country, can save them. Back door deals involving Russia and China on the spoils from a wrecked Iran are already rumored.

Many in the Middle East want the Iranians humbled for two reasons, first the Sunni-Shiite rivalry, more like the world's oldest and most stubbornly fought family fewd, and second because Arabs all know that Iranians aren't Arabs, even if the rest of the world sees no difference. I expect a certain amount of collusion is even now being brokered in private clubs in London or perhaps private homes in Switzerland, far from the madding crowd.

... be seeing you.

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AlbertaCrude
Bull-Carp
David Burton wrote
 
Sorry, I don't believe we can learn anything from the histories of European wars to determine what we are dealing with right now in the Middle East and elsewhere.  Not at all....

We will be dragged into this war, as will Russia, by the forces of history and interest.... This is about to happen if it hasn't already - August 22.


I just saw your post. I would agree and will go on to say that once again the English speaking peoples of the world and Russians will be allies of convenience and necessity.

Just looked up Agust 22 and found this: http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/brian_..._august_22.html I've always like Bernard Lewis.

JBryan wrote
 
AC, I agree the parallels are not precise but the key to this situation is a nuclear armed Iran.


I realize this and therefore doubt that appeasement will prevail in the end. It is as impractical as it is unacceptable. A nuclear armed Iran leaves no option but to think the unthinkable.
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Rick Zimmer
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Fulla-Carp
Why does everyone think we have some sort of national interest that mandates the type of involvement we now have in the Middle East?

The only reason we care about the area is because of the oil. We can buy what we need from them (they have to sell it) until we make ourselves self sufficient in ernergy. After that, the rest of the world can worry about how to get Middle East oil; it is no longer our problem.

As for those who claim they hate us and thus believe we have to react to them in some sort of equally belligernt manner. Why? If we are not involved in trying to resolve their petty hatreds for each other and all we intend to do is simply buy their oil, who cares if they hate us?

Iran going nuclear? Buy the jerks off -- give them money, respect, infrastructure, control over Iraq -- whatever it takes. They have a price. Pay it and we are fine. Who cares about Iran getting what it wants if we no longer care what happens in the Middle East.

Israel? After 60 years of massive infusions of US money, they are in pretty good shape. They can fend for themselves against their neighbors. In fact, if the US is out of there, maybe they will all stop thinking that they have to keep up this tit for tat violence and might actually figure out how to co-exist.

Tom is right. The Middle East is an albatross around our neck. But it is one we have put there. We can take it off, put it down, buy the oil we need until we no longer need it and let these people live their angry, hate-filled lives however they want.
[size=4]Violence is incompatible with the nature of God and the nature of the soul -- Benedict XVI[/size]
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David Burton
Senior Carp
Then, this happens:
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article...mplate=printart

Israel accepts cease-fire deal

By KARIN LAUB
ASSOCIATED PRESS

August 11, 2006

JERUSALEM — Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has accepted an emerging Mideast cease-fire deal and informed the United States of his decision, Israeli officials said Friday.

Olmert will recommend that his government approve the deal in its meeting on Sunday, the officials said on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to brief journalists on the internal discussions.

It was not immediately clear whether Israel’s expanded ground offensive would be frozen. Defense officials said it appeared the campaign would be halted.
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Mikhailoh
Member Avatar
If you want trouble, find yourself a redhead
Firstly, I do not believe the Iranians can be bought. This is not about money.

And afetr we leave, the fate of Israel becomes?
Once in his life, every man is entitled to fall madly in love with a gorgeous redhead - Lucille Ball
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AlbertaCrude
Bull-Carp
Rick Zimmer
Aug 11 2006, 01:34 PM
Why does everyone think we have some sort of national interest that mandates the type of involvement we now have in the Middle East?


Because Europe, North America and much of Eurasia and Asia do have strategic interests there.
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Rick Zimmer
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Fulla-Carp
Mikhailoh
Aug 11 2006, 02:38 PM
Firstly, I do not believe the Iranians can be bought. This is not about money.

And afetr we leave, the fate of Israel becomes?

Israel has been there 60 years. It ain't going no where. It also has the best arms in the world after the US and NATO. They no longer need us. They can stand on their own.

At some point, Israel has to learn to live on its own. It can do that now. It will do that if it needs to.
[size=4]Violence is incompatible with the nature of God and the nature of the soul -- Benedict XVI[/size]
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