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| The Next Space Race; China | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: Jun 8 2006, 03:27 AM (96 Views) | |
| George K | Jun 8 2006, 03:27 AM Post #1 |
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Finally
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http://formerspook.blogspot.com/2006/06/next-space-race.html Tuesday, June 06, 2006 The Next Space Race The Pentagon has just released its annual report on Chinese space power, and it's a disturbing document, in several respects. Not only is Beijing spending heavily to develop space-based surveillance and reconnaissance systems, it is also investing in navigation warfare and anti-satellite capabilities that pose a direct threat to U.S. and its ability to wage future wars. Space.com has a summary of the report, which focuses on China's efforts to expand its manned space program, develop its own, space-based navigation systems (similar to GPS), improve launch capabilities and create viable anti-satellite technologies that could threaten U.S. reconnaissance satellites in low earth orbit, and deny information to military commanders. From an intelligence perspective, China's emerging navigation warfare (NAVWAR) strategy is a clear concern to American defense analysts and military planners. Beijing clearly understands that the U.S. has grown increasingly dependent on precision-guided munitions, and the satellites required to guide them to their targets. As a hedge against our precision strike systems, China is developing a two-phased approach. Within their own territory, they plan to deploy GPS jammers, making it more difficult for satellite-guided bombs to find their mark. While military systems use a "secure" mode of GPS, advanced jammers (deployed properly) could have some impact on that system, creating miss distances that would ensure target survival, or minimize damage, and force a re-strike, against an increasingly defense Chinese air defense array. At the same time, Beijing is also investing in its own satellite-guided weapons, capable of using GPS, Russia's GLOSNASS, the European Galileo system, or China's own Beidou navigation satellites. The Chinese assume that signals from at least one of these systems would be accessible in the skies over Taiwan, allowing short-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles to still find their targets. In essence, China hopes to deny use of space-based navigation and strike capabilities to an adversary operating over their territory, while using the same technology to conduct attacks against Taiwan. While there are some problems with this approach (namely in the technical capabilities of the Beidou system), development of this NAVWAR strategy illustrates how far China's space program has come over the past decade. More disturbing is China's efforts to field anti-satellite systems, capable of targeting adversary platforms in low earth orbit (LEO). That's the arena where many U.S. spy satellites operate. And while our reconnaissance platforms are technical marvels, they are also limited in terms of numbers, and it's extremely expensive and time-consuming to manufacture them. With a robust ASAT system, China could develop the ability to disable or destroy much of our LEO intel constellation, leaving the U.S. with no short-term options for replacing them. Bowing to political pressure, the U.S. essentially abandoned its ASAT program back in the 1980s; meanwhile, Beijing has plowed ahead, and is developing capabilities that could have grave implications for our space-based collection systems. Predictably, some on the left (notably Harvard's Jeffrey Lewis) have dismissed the report as little more than "a laundry list of Chinese space activities." I would argue that Mr. Lewis can't see the forest for the trees. Beijing clearly has a space plan, designed to challenge U.S. supremacy in that arena, and advance its own interests at the same time. China's NAVWAR strategy and ASAT efforts aren't isolated "science projects," they are integral parts of a comprehensive scheme that should be closely monitored by the U.S. intelligence communities. How worried should we be about China as a space power? In recent weeks, senior Congressional leaders and the Director of National Intelligence have been briefed on some of the topics outlined in the space report. Thankfully, there are some leaders in our national security establishment who can see the big picture, and view China's space endeavors as an over-arching plan, and not a series of isolated efforts. |
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A guide to GKSR: Click "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08 Nothing is as effective as homeopathy. I'd rather listen to an hour of Abba than an hour of The Beatles. - Klaus, 4/29/18 | |
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| Aqua Letifer | Jun 8 2006, 06:23 AM Post #2 |
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ZOOOOOM!
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"Heyy, China's getting their own space toys! That's not fair! WE should be the only ones to have them!" Pffft, I say. I seriously, SERIOUSLY doubt we'll be going to war with China anytime soon, due to the economic situation we both have with one another. China is a developing country, and so their military technology is going to increase. As for the "over-arching plan", is China really out to get us? Again, I doubt it, but negative attention like this can't help our relations any. |
| I cite irreconcilable differences. | |
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| Mark | Jun 8 2006, 07:20 AM Post #3 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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China will win the new space race. Why? Because America is not the same as it was before the Welfare State mentality of the LBJ administration. Long gone are the days of "Ask not what your country can do for you" mentality of the American people. The last democrat that I had even a modicum of respect for was JFK. He inspired this country's race to space and the American people came on board save a few extreme, socialistic / pinko commie movements. Do we still have the "Right Stuff" as a people to rally behind a program that we so foolishly abandoned so long ago? |
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___.___ (_]===* o 0 When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. H.G. Wells | |
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| JBryan | Jun 8 2006, 07:23 AM Post #4 |
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I am the grey one
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That would be about the time we began beating our swords into food stamps. |
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"Any man who would make an X rated movie should be forced to take his daughter to see it". - John Wayne There is a line we cross when we go from "I will believe it when I see it" to "I will see it when I believe it". Henry II: I marvel at you after all these years. Still like a democratic drawbridge: going down for everybody. Eleanor: At my age there's not much traffic anymore. From The Lion in Winter. | |
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| Aqua Letifer | Jun 8 2006, 07:27 AM Post #5 |
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ZOOOOOM!
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Well Mark, do you think we really went to the moon because of the scientific merits of such an endeavor, or just used it as a media campaign during our war with communism and the Russians? I highly doubt we went up in the interest of exploration, but I don't much care since to me, the point is we went. But I think that's the reason we haven't been back after all this time; back then, it was more about beating them pesky Russians. I wasn't around then, so this is just me speculating, but that's what it looked like to me. In all honesty, it might not be so bad to get some competition up there. The greatest thing that could ever happen to the Mars race is to get some competition. |
| I cite irreconcilable differences. | |
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| Mark | Jun 8 2006, 07:36 AM Post #6 |
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HOLY CARP!!!
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Yes. I agree AL. Problem is I think we have lost the will to do it. The country and our government is too wrapped up in socialistic legislation and issues to care about space exploration. I am sure it will become "a matter of national security crisis" and then the deficits will start to get even larger because the government is trying to be too many things to too many people. We cannot even look at reducing entitlements in this country without the majority of people getting up in arms about it. When the war started, welfare should have stopped. I mean all welfare including foreign aid. Ugh, sorry for the rant. I feel like ranting this morning for some reason. |
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___.___ (_]===* o 0 When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. H.G. Wells | |
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| Aqua Letifer | Jun 8 2006, 07:39 AM Post #7 |
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ZOOOOOM!
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Oh, there's no doubt! Go Fever stopped with Apollo 11. And you're right, turn this into some sort of national security crisis, and we'll be up there before the decade is out once again. Too bad we can't just go up for exploration's sake. |
| I cite irreconcilable differences. | |
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| Nobody's Sock | Jun 8 2006, 07:43 AM Post #8 |
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Fulla-Carp
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"Ugh, sorry for the rant. I feel like ranting this morning for some reason" Couldn't handle the panning of your singing I guess? That's ok Aragorn, who'd expect an 83 year old Ranger to sing well anyways? |
| "Somewhere, something incredible is waiting to be known." | |
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