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Hey A.C. -- How Big Will Their Win Be?
Topic Started: Jan 19 2006, 10:30 PM (802 Views)
Rick Zimmer
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Alberta Crude....

So, how big will the Conservative's win be on Monday?

From what I have heard, the winners will be the Conservatives, but while they may get a commanding lead in seats in Parliament, it might not be a majority and thus will need to form a minority government. Although it also sounds as if the momentum may still be building for them?

Do you think the Conservatives will get enough seats to have a majority? And what do you think Stephen Harper will be like as Prime Minister? It sounds as if he has been moving to the center and is not as strident in his conservatism as he has been in the past, thus making him more palatable. True?

Your predictions for Monday would be welcome.
[size=4]Violence is incompatible with the nature of God and the nature of the soul -- Benedict XVI[/size]
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sue
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HOLY CARP!!!
While you're waiting for AC's prediction, I'll throw my 2 cents in. Canadians will shake their collective heads, and say no to Stephen Harper. We're not ready to throw away our country.

Ok, that's just what I hope. It does look like the Conservatives could win this thing. And it will all be over before my ballot is even counted.
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AlbertaCrude
Bull-Carp
The Conservatives will possibly gain a slight majority if they grab a couple of seats from the Liberals in Quebec. Otherwise it will be Conservative minority that probably won't last beyond first budget and we'll be going back to the polls before the end of the year again.

Sue, you're sounding a bit KathyK'ishly shrill and illogical about the prospects of a Harper victory. Is it becasue the Liberal gravytrain for BC might go away?
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sue
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HOLY CARP!!!
Shrill and illogical? :tongue: Tired and disillusioned, and perhaps unrealistic was how I was feeling when I wrote that; I probably should have just gone to bed.

I'm not in agreement with a lot of the Conservative's platform, and I personally have little faith in the candidate in my particular riding. I live in the largest (I believe) riding in Canada, with very diverse income levels and issues; the PC candidate is woefuly ignorant of much beyond his wealthy community. And there's a very good chance he will win.

Your assumption that I am in favour of the Liberals is way off base. I've never said that. Neither party is looking very good to me. Hence my disillusionment.
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AlbertaCrude
Bull-Carp
You live in the People's Republic of BC - life is difficult owing to the corruption of politicians.

Stephen Harper will give all of BC to Tsar Ralph I.

Under Tsar Ralph you will say “Life has become better; life has become more joyous.”
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sue
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HOLY CARP!!!
AlbertaCrude
Jan 20 2006, 09:24 AM
You live in the People's Republic of BC - life is difficult owing to the corruption of politicians.

Stephen Harper will give all of BC to Tsar Ralph I.

Under Tsar Ralph you will say “Life has become better; life has become more joyous.”

Free vodka and steak under Tsar Ralph? Doesn't sound so bad, where do I sign up :D
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AlbertaCrude
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Actually I think Ralph I and Albertans should just start invade BC and bring about a regime change there:

http://www.cbc.ca/story/business/national/...tco-060120.html
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AlbertaCrude
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Seems that the Liberals will stoop to :whistle: just to make sure "Landslide Annie" McLellan (Martin's Deputy Prime Minister or in 'merican, the equivalent of Dick Cheney) beats the Tories in Edmonton.

Just out : http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news...762fefa&k=22377
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John D'Oh
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MAMIL
sue
Jan 20 2006, 12:46 PM
AlbertaCrude
Jan 20 2006, 09:24 AM
You live in the People's Republic of BC - life  is difficult owing to the corruption of politicians.

Stephen Harper will give all of BC to Tsar Ralph I.

Under Tsar Ralph you will say “Life has become better; life has become more joyous.”

Free vodka and steak under Tsar Ralph? Doesn't sound so bad, where do I sign up :D

Chuck Norris, sorry, Ralph Klein eats steak for every single meal. Most times he forgets to kill the cow.
What do you mean "we", have you got a mouse in your pocket?
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AlbertaCrude
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John D'Oh
Jan 20 2006, 12:29 PM
... Ralph Klein eats steak for every single meal. Most times he forgets to kill the cow.

:D

Posted Image

Tea and Alberta Prime Rib Time with Ralph Klein
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sue
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HOLY CARP!!!
AlbertaCrude
Jan 20 2006, 12:13 PM
Actually I think Ralph I and Albertans should just start invade BC and bring about a regime change there:

http://www.cbc.ca/story/business/national/...tco-060120.html

good grief. :blink:

Bring on the vodka, Ralphie, we need it.
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dolmansaxlil
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HOLY CARP!!!
Just pulled this from the CBC. These are numbers taken yesterday morning from three election sites:

The projections:

UBC Election Stock Market
Liberals - 89
Conservatives - 134
NDP - 31
Bloc - 53
Other - 1

LISPOP
Liberals - 77
Conservatives - 142
NDP - 29
Bloc - 60

DemocraticSpace.com (in 2004, this site was correct within 4 seats for each party)
Liberals - 85
Conservatives - 131
NDP - 31
Bloc - 58
Other - 1
"Your first 10,000 photographs are your worst." ~ Henri Cartier-Bresson

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AlbertaCrude
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Conservative minority.

Back to the polls next fall.
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Rick Zimmer
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AlbertaCrude
Jan 20 2006, 10:10 PM
Conservative minority.

Back to the polls next fall.

Polls next fall because it is required with a minority government or polls next fall because you don't think the minority government can last?

And isn't it possible (in theory at least, maybe not in practice) for the losing parties to all form a coalition and thus be the ones to form the government?
[size=4]Violence is incompatible with the nature of God and the nature of the soul -- Benedict XVI[/size]
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dolmansaxlil
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HOLY CARP!!!
Rick Zimmer
Jan 21 2006, 01:20 PM
AlbertaCrude
Jan 20 2006, 10:10 PM
Conservative minority.

Back to the polls next fall.

Polls next fall because it is required with a minority government or polls next fall because you don't think the minority government can last?

And isn't it possible (in theory at least, maybe not in practice) for the losing parties to all form a coalition and thus be the ones to form the government?

Polls next fall because it's unlikely that the Conservative minority will be able to get anything done. They'll likely lose a confidence vote when they try to pass their first budget.

Yes, the Liberals, NDP and Bloc could join together and form a coalition. Then they go to the Governor General and state their case about why their three party coalition would form a more stable government. If they are convincing, then she gives them the government, and the Conservatives would be the opposition. It happened in 1985 (? AC - am I wrong on the date?) in Ontario. The Liberals and NDP joined to form a coalition government that, if I recall correctly, lasted for about 2 years before the Liberals won a majority government. (Followed by the NDP forming a majority in the next election.)
"Your first 10,000 photographs are your worst." ~ Henri Cartier-Bresson

My Flickr Photostream


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sue
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HOLY CARP!!!
CBC has a short explanation of the the different parties involved for anyone interested in the Canadian election
Canadian Election
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Rick Zimmer
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sue
Jan 21 2006, 10:33 AM
CBC has a short explanation of the the different parties involved for anyone interested in the Canadian election
Canadian Election

Thanks, Sue. That was informative.

On NPR here in the LA area, there is a Candian public radio program aired each night -- As It Happens. VERY different tone than much of what we get here, even for NPR. I enjoy listening to it and finding out what our neighbors up north are doing. I also get a kick out of the more "neighborly" approach they use.

They have, of course, been covering the election heavily the past couple of weeks. It has been VERY interesting seeing the commonality of issues in Canda with those in the US as well as the divergence of issues.
[size=4]Violence is incompatible with the nature of God and the nature of the soul -- Benedict XVI[/size]
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AlbertaCrude
Bull-Carp
A true coalition government would entail a cabinet made up of the various parties- less those forming the official opposition. It ain't gonna happen because the parties themselves will not work together that closely nor would a Prime Minister be able to exercise the traditional party discipline. Canadian federal politics is just not as sophisticated (i.e non partisan) in that regard as present day Israel or Britain was during WWII.

The Conservatives could make a deal with the Bloc Quebecois but that would be political suicide in English Canada. In theory given the ideological similarities they could try to make a deal with the Liberals, it is not feasible as it would further divide the Tories and they would any case, soon be double crossed by the Liberal faction . A deal with the socialist NDP is unimaginable.

We will again go to the polls next autumn unless of course the Liberals implode on themselves and turn on Martin and the old Chretien guard. The latter is a distinct possibility given the scandals.
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dolmansaxlil
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HOLY CARP!!!
AlbertaCrude
Jan 21 2006, 03:49 PM
A true coalition government would entail a cabinet made up of the various parties- less those forming the official opposition. It ain't gonna happen because the parties themselves will not work together that closely nor would a Prime Minister be able to exercise the traditional party discipline. Canadian federal politics is just not as sophisticated (i.e non partisan) in that regard as present day Israel or Britain was during WWII.

The Conservatives could make a deal with the Bloc Quebecois but that would be political suicide in English Canada. On principle they could try to make a deal with the Liberals, is not feasible as would further divide the Tories and they would soon be double crossed by the Liberal faction . A deal with the socialist NDP is unimaginable.

We will again go to the polls next autumn unless of course the Liberals implode on themselves and turn on Martin and the old Chretien guard. The latter is a distinct possibility given the scandals.

Oh, my assumption is that Martin will step down Tuesday morning. Perhaps that's just wishful thinking, but...
"Your first 10,000 photographs are your worst." ~ Henri Cartier-Bresson

My Flickr Photostream


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AlbertaCrude
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If Michael Ignatieff wins the Liberal seat in Etobicoke we may witness the rise of a new Pierre Trudeau inside the Liberal Party. I've been watching him and I am impressed- very impressed.
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dolmansaxlil
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HOLY CARP!!!
AlbertaCrude
Jan 21 2006, 04:00 PM
If Michael Ignatieff wins his seat in Etobicoke we may witness the rise of a new Pierre Trudeau inside the Liberal Party. I've been watching him and I am impressed- very impressed.

Oh geez - didn't you read about THAT scandal?? A couple days old, now... I'm not sure HOW I feel about him at this point - I think he might be too right-leaning for my tastes (though Gandhi has to walk on egg shells around me, so really me saying that means nothing :wink: )

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/na...ieff060120.html
"Your first 10,000 photographs are your worst." ~ Henri Cartier-Bresson

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AlbertaCrude
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No, I've been pretty much focused on the local battle here with Landslide Annie McLellan and my own riding (Strathcona) which oddly enough might go to the NDP (shock of shocks, eh?). I knew the nation's Ukrainian mafia was out to get Ignatieff and that he'd be in for rough ride. Still, I thought that it was behind him least for the time being. Nor did I realize that Etobicoke was Ukrainian fiefdom. Indeed, the truth be known Ignatieff's only crime is his aristocratic Russian heritage from the St Petersburg region. His father, the respected diplomat George Ignatieff, was one of my mentors when I did my graduate studies in Ottawa.
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sue
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HOLY CARP!!!
Ignatieff sounds interesting, looks like a riding to watch.

My own riding, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country (there's a mouthful,eh) looks like it will, once again, be a very, very close battle between the Cons and the Liberals.
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dolmansaxlil
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HOLY CARP!!!
My riding (Chatham-Kent-Essex) is kind of a mess. It's gone Liberal since 1988 under MP Jerry Pickard. He's retiring, and the Liberal candidate (Jim Comisky) isn't all that endearing. I'm not particularly fond of the Conservative candidate, either. The NDP candidate (Kathleen Kevany) is really intelligent and knows her stuff, but is kind of flaky-sounding, which isn't helping.

In the last election, Pickard won by only 400 votes. I'm worried that with Pickard, who was very well liked, retiring, and the shift towards conservativism that our riding has undergone over the past few years, that it could go conservative this time round.
"Your first 10,000 photographs are your worst." ~ Henri Cartier-Bresson

My Flickr Photostream


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sue
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HOLY CARP!!!
dolmansaxlil
Jan 21 2006, 09:41 PM
My riding (Chatham-Kent-Essex) is kind of a mess. It's gone Liberal since 1988 under MP Jerry Pickard. He's retiring, and the Liberal candidate (Jim Comisky) isn't all that endearing. I'm not particularly fond of the Conservative candidate, either. The NDP candidate (Kathleen Kevany) is really intelligent and knows her stuff, but is kind of flaky-sounding, which isn't helping.

In the last election, Pickard won by only 400 votes. I'm worried that with Pickard, who was very well liked, retiring, and the shift towards conservativism that our riding has undergone over the past few years, that it could go conservative this time round.

Sounds very close to home. I've never been this undecided, this close to an election.
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