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Worm Mafia; The end is nigh, or possibly in the semi-distant future
Topic Started: Jul 26 2017, 08:36 PM (4,226 Views)
MurderWeasel
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Cicada Days
Aug 21 2017, 05:53 PM
I don't think I like the idea of linking Prim's vote to any specific voter, even if that voter is confirmed Town. If we can't reach a plurality/majority then the vote is wasted anyways. Could we just ask Prim to vote to lynch when we reach a vote threshold, on whoever that may be?
The issue there is that if we have three scum, town cannot win without either their cooperation or CBP's vote. If we suspect Prim, then having her ape CBP is the best option--it backs her into a corner if she is scum (potentially letting us overcome a townie flaking) and if she's town it guarantees she won't misfire unless CBP does (and if CBP misfires we're in trouble anyways, for reasons already discussed).
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MurderWeasel
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My thoughts:

Cicada: Cicada's early posts had my hackles up a lot. That said, my feelings became complicated throughout the first day, leading me to eventually shift gears and focus on CBP instead. Cicada's claim was odd and preemptive, but also gutsy and of the sort unlikely to fly untested unless an unlikely safeclaim. More than that, the only way Cicada is sum is if Randomness is also scum. This means we should not lynch Cicada today under any circumstances. At the same time, we should not take Cicada's vote as 100% in town's interests; there is a chance of sneakiness if Randomness is scum.

CBP: Confirmed town, for reasons beaten to death elsewhere. CBP would've been counter-claimed were there such a thing out there, and the specifics of the role absolutely guarantee a town alignment. Should not be lynched under any circumstances and can effectively unilaterally control the vote if willing to throw the game otherwise.

Deamon: Somewhat slippery and hasn't posted much of content, as he tends to do. His jump from Cicada wagon to CBP wagon looks good to me because of the circumstances surrounding it--he was the first to jump ship after my posts, when continuing to drive the Cicada wagon was most likely to be successful. I like that he supplied some reads, but I'm hesitant because he listed Kermit and Randomness as town reads while nulling everyone else and the rest of my speculations suggest that at least one of those two is scum--only other option I can see is Cicada/Deamon/Prim (unless random tiny scum game) and as I've stated I cannot conceive of a setup in which Cicada is scum and Randomness is not.

Randomness: Here's where stuff gets trickier. Randomness turns serious really early, with focus on Cicada--this looks bad at the current juncture given later weirdness between the two, and Randomness is weird throughout the phase, trying to move the lynch back to Cicada and arguing against being too gung-ho about CBP while also being willing to compromise to secure a lynch. It's an odd, defensive stance. Randomness also is really keen to get details of Yugi's having been blocked, and also is weird about Cicada's claim. I'm actually feeling more certain that there is no Randomness/Cicada collab going on. Also of note: Randomness apparently acted in accord with Cicada's claim, while seeming skeptical of it while it was rolling out.

Coupled with the weird and unverifiable claim that scum could've easily faked, I'm more than a little suspicious of Randomness. Certainly top of those I've listed so far.

Prim: Prim has never voted, has only asked questions, and has basically thrown in the towel. If Prim is town, that's really bad. Prim's greatest involvement is pretty much poking at Yugi's claim, which we now know was legit. Prim's behavior when cornered echos past town games, but something this time feels off to me. Also, chance Prim gets modkilled anyways if my math is right--if Prim is scum that sets town up in much better shape/gives a potential reprieve, and if not that's basically game. That makes Prim a notch lower for me, unless we really think she's for sure the scummiest.

Kermit: Willing to poke at things and take a stand, which I like. Style seems solid, logic follows though is imperfect. Wish we had more recent stuff to go on. I think the assumption that Cicada and Randomness must share an alignment is incorrect but I can see how he got there and it's an odd route to pursue as a gambit.

Thus, I'm left with the following:

Conf Town:
CBP

Treat as Town:
Cicada

Complicated, skews Towny:
Kermit
Deamon

Skews Scummy:
Prim
Randomness

Note that if we have three scum I must be wrong about at least one of Kermit, Deamon, and Cicada.

Having thought this all through, my proposed course of action would be to lynch Randomness, hope Prim's scum and gets modkilled, and then cross our fingers that night roles get some mileage. Randomness has the oddest series of posts/the thrust most focused on courses of action that'd've been harmful to town, and the claim is very very convenient and was volunteered in an odd way. This isn't perfect (any lynch here is gonna be way looser than I like given we've had no successes) but I think it's the best odds of town surviving.
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Alton Gerow drawn by Mimi
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CrossbowPig
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CBP
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MW
 
the only way Cicada is sum is if Randomness is also scum.


also MW
 
I think the assumption that Cicada and Randomness must share an alignment is incorrect


Could you elaborate here?
~~~~~ Creativity's Burning Pyre ~~~~~

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MAYBE: V?
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MurderWeasel
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Gladly!

If Cicada is scum and Randomness is town, then Randomness is telling the truth about having swapped Cicada with Skraal. That means that somebody did indeed shoot at Cicada (instead killing Skraal). Since scum wouldn't shoot one of their own, that means some town role decided to shoot the non-counter-claimed Doctor, and scum somehow missed or held their shot. That's super improbable.

If Cicada and Randomness are both scum, on the other hand, then they can just say whatever because they knew in advance where the shots were going and such, and just shot Skraal and then had Randomness claim in order to foster town cred for both Cicada and Randomness.

If Cicada is town and Randomness is scum, then Randomness, with the scum team, decided to pop Skraal basically to hit someone the doctor would likely not be protecting, and cooked up the claim to establish Randomness as a town voice. If Cicada's town, that ruse works just the same--maybe even better, since there's an actual town voice going "Oh, that makes loads of sense as to why I didn't die!" The payoff in this instance is establishing cred for Randomness, which would also explain the odd manner and timing of the claim.

If both are town (which I doubt) then they're just telling the truth.
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MurderWeasel
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So, I can't guarantee I'll be in again before phase end and am thus violating the midnight rule (though honestly it's not too bad since I'm the last post anyways). I'm going to VOTE: Randomness for all the reasons I've outlined in the past couple posts, and urge others to do the same so that we at least take a swing instead of just kind of pathetically losing to inactivity. Might be back before phase end, but honestly probably not since I usually sleep until like 10 am and phase ends at about 9.
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Juliette Sargent drawn by Mimi and Ryuki
Alton Gerow drawn by Mimi
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Cicada Days
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keep running yoshi
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Hmm. I'm not seeing much in the way of Randomness defending themselves, which is a bit suspicious. I think MurderWeasel's logic concerning me vs. Randomness is fairly consistent, and of course I'm hardly going to assume I am Scum in those hypothetical scenarios. It does explain my suspicion that Bus Driver seems a bit too specific a role, if this was all just premeditated. Something I noticed looking back again is that I claimed Doctor before the Night 3 massacre that took out Skraal, so it would have been easier for Mafia with their meta knowledge to craft something sneaky as a cover story. I don't entirely agree with some of the specifics, I still think Deamon is second most suspicious because as far as I'm aware he's doing something similar to Randomness. But that's a secondary point.

I'm going to bank on trusting MW here and I'm encouraging a vote train, and if I'm wrong we ded, so.

Vote: Randomness
V7

V6 - Like you imagined when you... were young...
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Cicada Days
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keep running yoshi
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fuck its supposed to be red

Vote: Randomness
V7

V6 - Like you imagined when you... were young...
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Zetsumodernista
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escaping the real world to face reality
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Brockton Bay: Scion

Brockton Bay: SCION

Brockton Bay: SCIIIIIIIIIIOOOOOOOOON

Scion: mmm?

Brockton Bay: HALP

Scion: soz I was helping this ant cross the road

Scion: she was, like, really slow

Scion: anyways i'm on my way

Scion: oh you didn't even tell me which bad guy i'm supposed to kill anyways


Votecount 3.1

Randomness: MW, Cicada (L-2)

Today's day phase has ended in a no-lynch.

The night phase begins now and will end on August 27th at noon EST.

Posted Image

I'm gonna be lenient on the modkills and prods since I was too distracted to keep this thing updated regularly. Everyone who made a good-faith effort to talk in the thread will be given a pass. Prim will be modkilled barring an appeal, which must be made during this nightphase.
dear god dear god tinkle tinkle hoy

G056: Asuka Takahara: The one who can out-pretentious them all.
- Memories: 1
- Pregame: 1
- V6: 1-2
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Zetsumodernista
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escaping the real world to face reality
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Trickster: [bows]

Trickster: [takes off hat]

Trickster: [throws hat into air]

Trickster: [pirouettes]

Trickster: [blows a kiss]

Trickster: [dabs]

Trickster: NOW PREPARE TO PUNCH YOURSELF IN THE--

The Siberian: [bumps into Trickster]

...

Battery: it's all your fault Cauldron

Battery: if it wasn't for you Assault wouldn't have had to die

Battery suicide charges Contessa, determined to go down fighting, but got struck by lightning halfway there.

...

Genesis: this isn't my real body u cant kill me

Contessa: adfghjkl

Genesis: zetsuboushita

Genesis, having lost all hope, shot herself in the head.


DEAD:

Trickster - Randomness, Bus Driver
Battery - CBP, Masonized Lover
Genesis - Prim, Jack-of-All-Trades


VICTORY: SCUM

Deamon - Jack Slash, Ascetic Neighborizer
MW - The Siberian, Bulletproof Strongman Roleblocker



The fallout thread will be up shortly.

dear god dear god tinkle tinkle hoy

G056: Asuka Takahara: The one who can out-pretentious them all.
- Memories: 1
- Pregame: 1
- V6: 1-2
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