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Mass Effect Mafia Game Thread
Topic Started: May 1 2017, 07:12 PM (22,112 Views)
Grim Wolf
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Ten pages in less than 24 hours. Naturally. I can't wait to see how many of these pages are just Vyse arguing with himself.

Role confirmed. No vote until I've got more info.
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Grim Wolf
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Live-streaming analysis until I finish catching up.

It's really funny watching Zetsu baffle Vyse.

I appreciate Empress and Murder being their usual voices of reason, but could also see them trying to establish a fair-and-balanced back-and-forth to make sure they can take the wind out of the sails of any concept that threatens them.

MK is just a ball of snark. Like a porcupine whose quills are entirely made of sarcastic quips. A snarkupine, if you will. No sooner do I start to contemplate pointing out his lack of contributions than the smooth snarking bastard actually goes and posts reads and analysis, so tentantively town-reading. Don't entirely like the list of actives he wants stronger readers on. Not sure what the play is there, but it could be strong townplay trying to give us a broader base of information or scumplay setting up later lynches. I think I'm also picking up on some soft-crumbing.

Similar deal with Deamon, actually. Nice combination of deflating jokes and actual discussion. Might be my strongest town-read atm.

Wow do I not like this weird interchange where Murder and Empress suddenly agree that in spite of the fact that Vyse might be positioning himself dangerously to mislead town they shouldn't lynch him. It's a weird sort of fence-sitting: they want to make it clear that they're not saying don't lynch Vyse, but they're not saying lynch him, either. I don't know if it's scumplay, but it doesn't feel like townplay: it feels like they're saying, "Hey just remember we specifically didn't advocate for whatever course you choose."

Turtle's kinda rubbing me the wrong way, too? I can't quite describe what's throwing me, it's the light posts that do contribute to the discussion but don't really move things along?

Really enjoying Kermit's contributions.

Biggest thought: I'm a little leery of the insane levels of discussion we've had on what amounts to no information. The complete lack of anything resembling a joke phase in this Day One says to me that at least a few people are working long-term strats (obviously scum, maybe some townies trying more ambitious gambits), which can make things a bit hard to navigate in a long day one phase where the only ones with any kind of information they can trust are scum.

I will not be posting proper reads until Day 2. I don't see the point until I have definite information I can use, besides Toxie's status. I'll try to keep pace with the constant string of posts, but time-wise I don't see myself getting too in-depth in analysis.
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Grim Wolf
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I am really not liking Yugi's posts. He almost reads as jester-esque to me. Although if I'm being honest, that probably has a lot to do with that hellish avatar.
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Grim Wolf
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Toxie
 
So wait, RC makes a vote against Kermit for the list, then zetsu and prim question it, and now we're voting zetsu?

Again, I have no much clue as to what's going on, but.. could we elaborate a bit?


Guys, this post (along with some other subtle clues) means Toxie's basically confirmed Town in my eyes.

Obviously the lack of info here is making it hard to construct compelling theories, but I really appreciate how much fodder this MK and MW argument is gonna give us to go on, regardless of the flips. I'm kinda not liking Vyse's play right now, actually: it feels very opportunistic.
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Grim Wolf
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Quote:
 
Guys, this post (along with some other subtle clues) means Toxie's basically confirmed Town in my eyes.
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Grim Wolf
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Of course, Vyse's confirmation is only relevant if he's Town. If he's Scum, it might be scum trying to mislead us away from a mass claim. Which, just a reminder, is what he's been advising against from the beginning.

Scumreading Vyse pretty hard now.
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Grim Wolf
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Yeah, your reaction to even a hint of pressure isn't doing much to reassure me.

A quick summary:

1. You pushed against the idea of massclaim on the grounds of 'fun' and then allowed other arguments against massclaims to go unaddressed (why would you need to? You'd already made your position clear).
2. You've been attempting to control the discussion throughout the game. This is simply Vyse behavior, of course, but if you're Scum it assumes some troubling dimensions.
3. When Kermit makes his case, your immediate reaction is to claim 'my role doesn't fit' which is a nice idea if you're Town, but if you're scum and all your other actions have been made to prevent what you see as the nightmare scenario (a massclaim you're not confident you could survive) this could be your way of making sure no one decides to follow up on the mass claim, since you're now afraid after Kermit's analysis that your own position will be exposed.
4. When I voice my suspicions, you seem baffled as to how they could have ever formed in the first place--which is some fascinating play from someone whose is always so analytical.

In fact, I'm confident enough.

Vote: Vyse
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Grim Wolf
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Deamon
 
I agree with you that Grim is probably town because he does ridiculous shit like this all the time so whatever.


Highest praise I've ever received.

Vyse
 
I'm with the Town!Grim wagon too.

Just irked.


That's nice. Doesn't make me change my read though. You're currently my favorite lynch, and your attempt to backdoor innocence by buddying people with towncred isn't doing much to change my mind.

Although I'm taking Murder's suggestion of multiball into consideration: it would explain the very distinct countertrends we seem to be seeing. A lot of confidence, all across the board, which says to me there's a lot of people moving with more information than just their own role. My guess would be, if it's Multiball, there's a Cerberus mafia headed by the Illusive Man and a Reaper mafia headed by Harbinger, Saren, or Soverigen /rampantflavorspeculation.

@fogu: Ah, but my reasoning is specious! Only scum has any concrete information to work from: any guesses at this moment are specious by necessity (with the exception of Toxie). My chain of reasoning isn't meant to say "this proves Vyse is scum without a doubt:" it says, given the total lack of information, Vyse is my favorite lynch based on the evidence. To elaborate further: the point isn't that this reveals a crucial contradiction that exposes scum play. The point is that this 'motivation' is a nice cover if scum!Vyse wants to avoid total defeat. It would be very Vyse-like to recognize the way he could be easily defeated and then immediately claim, "Oh, guys, we shouldn't massclaim, that would ruin the fun." Likewise, his play isn't inherently scummy, but I'm advising against using Sotf meta to determine his play. Essentially: his play, at best, is neutral, and to me feels very scummy.

Which reminds me, fogu: it's nice how your first appearance in the thread is marked by immediately rushing to Vyse's defense and a strong push on other suspects. Nothing suspect at all there. That said, loving your salt this game. Please keep up the scathing wit.

But then I get distracted because Vyse manages this little gem:

Vyse
 
Just keep in mind he's good at words. Don't take explanations from him on face value.


Okay, Vyse. So we should never ever listen to anyone's explanations. Got it.

@EP or RC: Can someone remind me exactly what RC's gut is?

I'm actually not opposed to jumping to the MW train to secure a lynch today, as they'll both give us oodles of information to go off of: however, I still think Vyse is the best candidate. His roleclaim is a little suspect, but MK's flavor discreditation is even more so. Vega's a squadmate with a god damn movie made out of him, man. He might very well be a safeclaim, but the idea that he's not involved in the game in any sense is laughable, and it reads especially badly for you given how aggressively MW's been targeting you.

I feel most comfortable with the following lynches:

1) Vyse. Gives a huge amount of information to the board, regardless of flip, and my gut says scum
2) MW. Even with the roleclaim, we can at least be sure that his targets might include scum and aren't scum trying to mislead us.
3) MK. Recent posts and general behavior has led him to climb up the ladder of suspicion for me, but this is even more specious than my feelings towards Vyse.
4) EP. Honestly not super feeling this one, but there appear to be enough divided opinions about her that the flip would be guaranteed to give us a nice jumping off point.
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Grim Wolf
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@Vyse: no, you're right, my post that details my reads, my logic, my speculation, my willingness to jump ship to a better lynch as long as it gets us info, and my list of my favorite candidates for a Day One lynch definitely consists of tunnelfighting.

#panickingscum #vysepresidentofgettinglynched
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Grim Wolf
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#MKjustplayedhisTrumpcard
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Grim Wolf
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Well this game's gonna be a lot less fun now. Do what you guys gotta do to take care of yourselves. You will be missed (though I bet Vyse will still be at least #3 in posts when the game is over). I hope I in no way contributed to you reasons for leaving.

That said, we've really only got one choice now.

UNVOTE
VOTE: MURDER

We don't know if those two spots will get filled, and if they don't, we the info about their roles. This is the best way to get the information we need on Day One, and there's enough of a case against you (not engaging, thin arguments, tunneling Vyse) that I'm okay with this lynch, if not exactly comfortable with it.
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Grim Wolf
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Taking a leaf from Vyse's playbook:

BRACKIE

INGE

PRIM

Ya'll need to either vote (with attached reasons) or make it clear why you've chosen not to vote (again, with attached reasons). I disagreed with most of Vyse's play this round (in particular the 'Grim's not having a conversation so why waste my time'), and that includes the notion that anything less than full discussion is pro-town.

(Singled you three out because the other non-voters have enough content in the mix for me to feel better about them).

Also given Vyse's status I'd encourage anyone left on that wagon to jump ship.
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Grim Wolf
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EBWOP: sorry, that was unclear. I meant that I disagreed with an assertion I believe Vyse made (which I do not have the patience to dig back through his ISO for, given I am sick) that a lot of discussion can somehow hinder town (which is, you know, doubly ironic coming from Vyse, given just how many posts he made).

Further notes: I do not have the energy for this that Vyse does, but his constant posting does tend to provoke responses and encourage activity, and with his absence I will try to increase my number of posts accordingly to fill that gap.
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Grim Wolf
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Slightly baffled by Kermit rn.
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Grim Wolf
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Given the upheaval we're already about to see, I'd feel much more comfortable ending this day on a lynch. That said, I can live with a no-lynch, as long as we have clear justification from everyone as to why they're not changing their votes/not voting. Anything less is suspect.

Also, I really don't like that last line on Random's post. It's a small thing, but it reads almost as him supplying Kermit with a ready justification for his unexplained Unvote.
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