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Battle Royale Mafia Game Thread
Topic Started: Jan 26 2017, 10:53 PM (13,988 Views)
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I have received a role. Or at least something that looks suspiciously similar to a role.

Anyone I'm goona VOTE: Boogie because clearly, a ruse is a lie, and lynch all liars is clearly extensible to this, right?
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Um, I voted for Boogie, not Yugi, so that doesn't really hold.
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EBWOP: Welp misread that! Blame my misplaced sense of self importance and carry on
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@Frogue What do you mean by 'just confirms'? There's already a bunch of votes before Deamon checks in, so I'm not sure what you mean?
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Inky:

Old meta is helpful, but not that much. 5 years is a long time, similar to how long I was away from this board's mafia too, and I'm very sure that my old playstyle is very unrepresentative of current play, so asking questions about it seems more than appropriate.

Frogue and Zetsu: The push is agressive in a way which makes me confused? I'm still trying to understand how it developed, so I'm gonna have to reread that.

The argument based on Zetsu's inconsistent characterisation of the push makes me feel a little uneasy, because to me it looks more like Frogue is using Zetsu's inconsistent use of terminology to further his argument, while I see it more as Zetsu playing emotionally rather than being scummy, not to say those are mutually exclusive.

Zetsu sticking to his guns is a small plus point in his favour, I don't feel that's a scum thing to do.
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Hope you feel better soon, Zetsu!

Gonna give a few more of my reads.

First up, Flare. Two posts, one joke vote and one serious post so far. It's a little weird to me that Flare doesn't recognise Frogue, but apart from that, there's little to analyse that doesn't reiterate what Vyse says in post 188 (on mobile so can't link).

Espi on the other hand, reads closer to neutral for me, though it seems to be hewing close to what's already been said. I can see the argument that it's trying to fly under the radar, but I don't think it really warrants a vote at this moment though.

Riki's questioning of Zetsu. It's oppurtunistic, eveb if I believe that it's a thing town might do. I'm not liking the timing on it a whole lot though, and the question asked seems to be attacking something trivial. Shifty eyes in this direction.

Just gonna Unvote: boogie for now.

For now I'd like to hear from Flare about his views on the Zetsu/Frogue thing and on his reads thus far.
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Another notable digression from past games: Battle Royale mafia contains no lynchers and no jesters. Both roles cause issues and confusion come lynch time, resulting in a lot of awkward speculation and often stalling things out. Lynchers usually need to be balanced as anti-town roles and the mere possibility of jesters can have really dire anti-town effects.
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Gonna throw out the rest of my reads, plus update a couple.

Null to Scum (Top is scummiest):
On Flare, I'm a smidge more worried than before. On one hand, I was actually a little confused at why Vyse voted on Zetsu when he did, while did provoke an interesting reaction, it wasn't instantly obvious what Vyse was doing when he did vote. What I don't like is that Flare claims that there weren't discussion points to talk about! We are still analysing the fallout of that mess, so clearly there are things to talk about! Trying to avoid discussion reads as more than a little scummy.

Vote:Flare

@Flare: Why do you think there wasn't anything to talk about? What do you think of the other people commenting on the whole fight? If we were to lynch Frogue and he flips scum, who would you suspect? Same for town?

As for the others, Fogu going quiet suddenly is something I'm not liking, especially given his normal activity. The whole Zetsu thing seems overblown to me, and his absence makes it look sketchier in hindsight.

Riki stays here since nothing has changed since the last time I mentioned him. @Riki, what are your opinions on Flare and Frogue now?

Deamon has made some comments that have been helpful, but he's also taken jabs at people who are being suspected. The fact that he's been doing so without voting makes me a little iffy on him right now.

Null to Town (Strongest town read first too):
Zetsu. I've said it already, his doubling down makes him look townie, especially since he was clearly panicking. Not a scum strategy most likely.

Paige. Has been helpful to town so far, including a good analysis of the Frogue/Zets fight. One small note though, I really don't like Paige's argument against Flare, because this is the type of thing that lets hidden scum skate free.

Goose's replies to both Inky and on inactives have been helpful.

Yugi, I like his replies, less so that most of them are prompted.

Zee has been contributing quite a bit, but at the same time feels a bit insubstantial? I dunno.

I kinda ran out of steam at the end there, but that's a basic rundown of my reads right now.
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Whoops, missed your vote on Flare, sorry! Scratch this one I guess.
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Okay. Sorry for being a bit quiet for a couple days.

We're sorta running outta time here, and things are still a mess, we really need to coalesce on one of the lynches. The less time we have, the easier scum can wagon or sorta force us into a bad/no-lynch

Riki is right in that lynching someone lurking at this point is pointless. With so little time left in the phase + the potential information we can get from lynches on current suspects, I really don't like the focus on inactives. We should watch out for them for sure, but information scarcity is town's biggest threat. It's like the old no-lynch argument all over again, we get more out of lynching someone active and gives us information based on votes, supporters and detractors, rather than blindly lynching someone who's said nothing, and gives us no information other than their own alignment.

I can sorta see Flare's case agaisnt Vyse, there's a similar thread between Frogue's and Vyse's push on Zetsu that I didn't really notice before. However, Vyse has laid out his arguments for voting Zestu in his ISO, and has also sorta laid out his own view on how votes should be used, so I don't feel like it's a post hoc justification. Furthermore, Frogue and Vyse are strong enough players that I really doubt that buddying is a thing that would be this obvious for either of them, so I'd be guessing that at least one of them is town.

@Flare: I asked you this earlier but it was mixed in with a few others so maybe you missed it? If we were to lynch Frogue and he turns up scum who would you look at next? Same for town?

I would also love to hear more from Frogue before the end of this dayphase. May switch my vote there if things start looking dire.
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Paige's play seems to be hinging on the fact that she finds Frogue, and then Vyse iffy, and she's outlined her case for that (7, 12 and 14 in ISO, and yes I'm on my phone again).

She argues that 1) The push on Flare is similar to the push on Zetsu in that they are 'distracting pushes out of nowhere' 2) Distracting is Vyse's style of play when cornered. Please correct me if this is misrepresenting the argument.

I can see a case on point one, the Zetsu wagon was ample confusion, while a push on Flare can clearly be seen as a distraction from a Frogue push, especially since the timing of the push conincides with increasing pressure on Frogue.

But the fact that she used Flare’s past play as a reason not to push for him is still more than a little off, but the rest reads more like being overly sure on Vyse+frogue as scum buddies than anything else.
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I disagree that a Flare vote gives little info. Vyse, Cake and I all come out looking worse for wear if he flips town while a scum flip makes me iffy of Paige.

@Toxie There’s a lot of disagreement on whether either of them are scum. If we were sure both were scummy your plan works, but we can’t agree on either of them right now.
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Hmm, I think a little more time should be spent dissecting kills, since SKs, vigs, maybe even Cake may have been a source of kills last night. It's very unlikely that's it's all of them, but the scenario may be more complicated than you suggest.

For example, if Bik hid behind cake, we can guess that there are less killing roles floating out there, since only two kills took place last night.

If Flare was shot by Cake, then we may not even have a vig!

Admittedly, there's limited utility we can get from analysing night actions alone, but it's not information we should just assume we understand and place aside.
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Sorry for being a little quiet this dayphase, I've been reading diligently, but haven't really been putting in the effort to put my thoughts together. Here's a bunch of them all in one post.

If we take both Vyse and Deamon at their word, we have at least two blockers in this game. Vyse's claim is more solid given the accompanying information but I'm willing to trust Deamon given the way he's been playing thus far. Vyse is basically confirmed town to me. Deamon also shifts strongly in this direction.

I don't feel that Paige flipping on Vyse is all that sketchy, since I saw the whole thing as being framed on the assumption that Frogue and Vyse were a scum pair. Given the events of last phase, I'd be more surprised if her opinion on Vyse didn't change. Still a null-town read for me.

Not real keen on the fact that Grim discounts anybody who voted for Flare as Town, althoough I admit it's easier to search for scum amongst those who voted for Fogue.

@Grim where was Paige soft defending Candy? I missed it if it happened.

RC's vote was on shaky reasoning and seemed more like a protest vote than anything else. Don't like the looks of it one bit. I know there were other low information votes, but I haven't really reread day 1 yet :/ Only mentioned RC since he was quoted.

Yugi's read on Lore, is a good analysis which pushes him further into the town column for me. Lore's been playing a little bit of a haphazard game so far, and I'm not really sure of my read on her right now?

@Lore
On bussing: Bussing makes dissection of voting patterns and defenses less reliable and also produces deniability. You don't actually need to lynch your teammates, but distancing yourself from them by voting on a wagon you don't think will go through is a tactic that also works. Given how close the votes were, it's more than probable that scum were on both lynches.

Also i just noticed:
Lore
 
IAt this point, Vyse is either overzealous scum or a monologuing town. I don't like either but I'd prefer him not being scum because on obvs reasons duh. So 👀.

Just a thought, if you think that Vyse might be scum, why didn't you press the case at all? It looks like you're trying to throw shade on someone without actually committing.

@Decoy Well, lurking isn't a useful barometer for scumminess for anyone in any game of mafia. Lynching inactives gets us town that was doing nothing at worst. Town depends on creating information to achieve things and lurking prevents the creation of this info. While you're being more active now, do you have any opinions on the Flare and Frogue wagons respectivetly?

Would like to hear more from RC and Toxie as well, I think these are the only two with iffy vote justifications that haven't been heard from?
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@Lore I sorta get what you mean, but if you really think he's shifty, sitting around and doing nothing until he gets NKed is kind of bad play. What exactly about Vyse's play do you think is shifty?

For something completely different, Espi's lack of posts this phase was pinging me too so I went to look back at them. One thing I noted is that Espi didn't actually vote last phase, something that makes me want to watch him more closely. I can get not wanting to vote on Frogue while he wasn't around but Espi's opinion on the Flare train isn't clear and I find that quite sketchy given that the Flare vote was kind of the only other game in town that day phase. Staying off votes while saying that he supports the Frogue train comes off as pretty bad for me.

I've got no better leads right now, so just gonna casually Vote:Espi

@Espi Why no comment on the Flare train, and why didn't you vote for either of them?
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