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Survivor: Cambodia Mafia Game Thread; y'gotta DIG DEEP if you wanna win this game
Topic Started: Jul 6 2016, 12:57 AM (9,389 Views)
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Confirmation is go. It feels so odd to see no random voting at this point of a mafia game.
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Lies. Any meme historian worth his salt knows that overabundance of memes in 2015 led to hyperinflation of memes that resulted in the Great Meme Crash of 2016.

More seriously, Yugi, what happens in the case of a tie in voting? Like, for example, if three people get two votes on them each. Or to repeat Backslash if no one sends in their votes on time.
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Well, not strictly RNG since we go into a 48 hour revote phase, but honestly a chaotic environment like that gives mafia a lot of room to maneuver, since its easier to come up with justification for a vote in such a situation, and they don't have to predeclare their votes like in Frogues plan.

But the point still stands if town doesn't lynch the advantage goes straight to mafia.

Im on mobile so I cant color tag but does mafia daychat extend into the revote and discussion phases?
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The thing is with no random voting, town loses the only pieces of information we have in these early phases. First night votes are likely to be little more than joke votes or this person is dangerous votes. Still useful information in later phases but nothing we can get out of it in this phase until the first people start declaring votes.

But it feels like we're all at some sort of vote impasse where no one has any information to vote on unless other people declare votes. RC is right about lynch all liars, this game is much more suited for that than usual.
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Certainly mafia will play along with the plan, but at least we're defining the rules of the game for them now, and we basically force them to give more information than they may like. Unless anyone sees any big loopholes in it, I don't see why we shouldn't do so.

Having mafia point out logical issues both helps and hinders town and is an inherent part of any mafia game, not just this one in particular. I'm thinking that the need for a lynch means that looking at one of the less actives is less likely to be detrimental to town, regardless of which way they flip. Since there isn't random voting, there's really nothing to dissect until later phases meaning that activity and contributions are our best markers towards how useful a person is, and thus I'd prefer to take out someone who's contributing little at this stage.

The shortlist for me this phase would basically be the meme squad:
Danny, Paige, Bik, Gianni, Toxie.

Their contributions have been minimal or zero after the phase turned more serious, and that's worth looking at a little. I'd really love to hear more from all of them before the end of the phase.

Flare and RC are also mildly suspect, but I'm not leaning either way on them just yet.
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Okay time to review my shortlist and throw out a few thoughts. There's not much time left, just over a day, so it'd be best to start pinning things down.

Danny and Bik haven't had posts in 5 days and have been largely frivolous. If nothing comes up to change things, they'd be near the top of the list. Toxie is also on the short-shortlist, given lack of contributions. I feel that the meme post reads badly after I basically called out the whole group and I'm really not sure what prompted that.

Paige is being very wishy-washy about things in the latest post, but given the way she's been describing arguments , I'd say it's an actual lack of understanding of what is going on than an attempt at deception. Not exactly helpful for town, but not too detrimental at this stage.

Gianni's perceptions aren't exactly controversial, and repeats a few things from others. I think it's okay for now, given that he does give clear reasons for what he's saying even if there's little originality there.

I agree that Rorick's post shows his unfamiliarity with site meta. Anyone who's played mafia with Toben knows that 'constructive' is his playstyle regardless of actual alignment. I feel like Rorick is just trying to give some reasons for why he doesn't have an opinion, and while a careful playstyle isn't exactly scummy, but the lack of any reads or thoughts on any of the reads that others have had doesn't come across very well.

My shortlist is Toxie, Rorick, Bik and Danny, right now, roughly in that order.
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I agree that Toxie's replies don't exactly line up with a town mindset and I don't see how his defence is constructive at all. If he wants to claim that he's useful there'd better be something behind that argument, and I'm not buying it unless there's something concrete. If there isn't any good information on this front for the next couple hours, I'm throwing a vote down.

I haven't actually thought much about Bik, but I have to agree that not reading posts that are important to the discussion is detrimental towards town. Combine that with an attempt at taking out someone potentially useful on day one, that's a bit dangerous. Honestly, I'm quite uncertain on whether I'd rather vote for him than Toxie now.

Danny deliberately slipping under the radar is something that I find really off putting as well, and it really screams suspicious for me. Declaring that he's trying to stay quiet seems counter-intuitive given that we've already said that we are targeting those who aren't contributing today, and I don't see a very good town reason for him to keep mum. If you're town there's little reason to hide imo.


Rorick comes across as overly careful and self-defensive, but given what I've seen from the last game, I'm willing to let it slide a little since it seems to come naturally to him.Eyes still on him, but not exactly high priority for me right now.
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Frogue makes good points and I've rethought things a little, but I believe that Bik is if not scummy then at least low utility. While I still think that Toxie's play has been scummier, that doesn't discount the fact that Bik has also been playing in a non-constructive manner, and has made some iffy moves.

That said, it's not uncommon for Bik to advocate a policy lynch on Toben and the reaction does come across as a little pointed, if I remember correctly, he proposed the same last game? It's not a smart or a great move, and I really don't like it, but it's not necessarily scummy. I'd still say that he is a decent option for a lynch in a pinch but not with as much conviction as earlier. Toxie's lack of further defense after his previous claims still puts him as my personal number one target, though.
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Can't risk the chaos of a no-lynch and the randomness that may follow.
Why would I follow a no-lynch?

Sorry.

But, yeah in the case of a tie it moves to a re-vote phase where we have no discussion. While mafia has no discussion either, they have the advantage since everybody's votes are not pre-established in thread and justification is easy to come up with after the fact. At that point they have freer rein to push what they want. It's not like they can't pile on to someone right now, but they still need a veneer of justification. They don't have to control discussion in that phase, they just need to vote.
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I think that's just to declare in a clear manner for everyone to keep track of. I presume the PMs will be coming soon. I will also VOTE:TOXIE .
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I agree that dmboogie is neutral for now as to how everything goes. There is the possibility that he might screw town over though, and we shouldn't discount that possibility at all, but he's not exactly a priority for town unless he pulls something.

I'm willing to give EP benefit of the doubt, if only because it seems more like being distracted from the game and misunderstanding things rather than anything sneaky. I'd like to know why she continues to suspect Rorick as well though.

Flare's comment seemed like a reply to the idea of RC's idea of flavour claiming to me, which was a point that I'm quite sure most people agreed wasn't exactly the best thing to do.

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Z has a point in that a complete lack of evaluation of the game isn't exactly a selling point on Paige's part. I don't think that having no change in opinion over a few days is really likely and is either scummy or unhelpful town. This line of questioning is pretty legitimate imo. Paige, can you throw up any reads apart from Rorick? It doesn't need to be 100% solid.

At the moment I'd like to hear from Flare, RC apart from those that Frogue has already mentioned. Their post counts have been low, and while they do stay on topic, I'd like to know whether they have any reads, or any comments on Paige's play.
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Wow, that was a lot of stuff to read through. Welcome aboard Vyse. We probably won't vote you out just this day phase.

Okay, I'm going to throw out my reads on some of the people that people have asking about this dayphase.

I don't like Danny's justifications, simply because saying that "I'm more used to real mafia" isn't exactly a valid reason for having no reads in particular. Given the large number of things pointed out in the thread so far, this feels like flimsy cover for the lack of information in his posts. I'm willing to give him a bit more time to throw out reads given his internet problems, but what has been posted so far isn't quite in his favour. Leaning lightly scum for me.

Prim's posts this phase have only been about continuing suspicion of Danny. While I've already mentioned why I think he's scummy above, I'd also like to hear your opinions on others. Any comments on the Paige Backslash situation at all?

I'm really seeing Frogue's point about Lore. Expanding on Frogue's point a little, it's already been mentioned that jester is an unlikely role to be in this game anyway, given that it's frickin Survivor (I'm sorry to whoever mentioned this, I forgot who you are so I can't credit you). Paige really didn't seem suspicious enough to warrant a jester comment, given that literally no one but backslash was putting weight on that push, and Paige's responses were reasonable. If she had said that Toxie might have been a jester, that would have been much less unusual. As it stands, I think Lore's leaning scummy. I do think that it's unusual that no one has picked up on this until now though.

Paige is pinging me slightly, and not just because she suspects me. I really don't like the fact that she hasn't made any real reads up till today and that was prompted by Frogue directly. I would like more justification for suspecting me as well, as I remember mostly clarifying rules and putting reads out. I do think that I was clear enough in why I was suspecting people and that I wasn't just throwing things up willy nilly, though others may clearly have a different impression. Really, if you suspect someone just go back and read their posts. It shouldn't be too hard to read through someone's posts unless it's like Toben or Frogue. It helps improve your reads, and if there was strong evidence, it'd be there. Running on iffy impressions doesn't exactly help anyone. Adding that her reads that have been picked apart by Frogue, it all paints a view of a person who really hasn't put in the requisite effort to really grok the game. I'm not exactly pleased with her play, but I don't think it's exactly scum either.

Z does have some legitimate lines of argument, and I was taking it at face value at the time of reading. That said, it did feel a little harsh for how little information the push was based on and the circumstances around it. I do think that there are legitimate questions that we should be asking Paige but Z seems to be lowkey suggesting that not knowing more about flavour might help since it prevents being killed off like decoy. Furthermore, the lack of reads of people outside Boogie and Paige despite recent discussion seems off. I'm going to hold a read here a little longer until after further discussion but there are things to be wary about here.
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EBWOP: Whoops. I meant we probably won't vote you out just yet, mate, not that'd we'd vote you off more than once.
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Honestly the reason we decided to declare votes is so that normal rules almost apply. It is important for town to decide on one or two good lynches and we need a decent section of the game on a lynch. One thing we should be clear on is that while normally, a fragmented town leads to a no lynch, scum can easily push a choice lynch through in this case. There are 14 players left in the game. If we have three or more plausible lynch targets, given that there are 4 scum members, they can push almost any lynch they want to victory. We need to coalesce around specific lynches to prevent giving scum too much deciding power or options. It is different, but the essence is still the same in my opinion. I think the big problem is people assuming that there is a significantly different meta to get, but to me it feels usual rules apply well enough. Do correct me if I'm wrong here.

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We shouldn't be scared of the ballot box voting. The fact that we get to see who voted whom is actually a really good way to catch scum out because we can see who's contradicting themselves in a way that we couldn't if they had to make their votes in the thread.
Z can you clarify this sentence because I think Toben and I are reading this sentence quite differently.

@MW
I guess you can call what I was doing soft-buddying, but I was defending the questioning of Paige because it felt like there were things that felt off about her play. In any case, there were few other lines of inquiry that looked promising at the time, and there were useful responses from that exchange, so I think it was moving things forwards. I also didn't really read Z as angling for a lynch. To me it was just questioning someone who, while not exactly scummy had said a few things that caught attention, and it was worth questioning her about it. I was giving Paige some benefit of the doubt at the time despite not liking her style of play, and while I don't think her play was ever lynch worthy, it was definitely worth a few questions.

At this point I don't think lynching Paige is a great idea; there doesn't seem to be any compelling case for it and I don't think there ever was one.

On RC's post:
This looks like exactly the beginning of his previous post. I don't know what this means but my gut says that this is trolling?
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