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RuPaul's Drag Race Mafia Game Thread; Woooooo girl, she already done had herses!
Topic Started: Apr 28 2016, 02:27 AM (10,602 Views)
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Vote:Deamon

For being the earliest person to post who hasn't been voted on yet.



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Whoops. Forgot to mention that the role has been received without a problem.
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We were practically guaranteed to lose a dayphase like this at some point given the way the board plays. I think the interesting thing is that we can probably work out a little bit about the setup from this, but I guess the flip will give us more concrete information to discuss, because how a hated character effects balance really depends on which faction they're from.
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Well, debating over the reasons why there wasn't a night kill can give some ideas about how the game is going, but given the low information phase we had + the lack of kills, the talk is running on near nothing.

Despite that, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I think the setup is likely to have favoured, and possibly still favour town. Given the importance of dayphase to town and what I think is a rare role (Are hated townies that take one vote to lynch common on this board?) I feel that this game is likely to either have a stronger night for town, more townies than may be expected from raw numbers alone or a slightly weaker mafia. Like I said last dayphase, we were probably going to lose a phase from this eventually, so I'd think the game would be balanced for that. Assuming that's the case, I totally see no reason for why the mafia would not push for a kill last night.

I agree with Frogue that Bik's vote feels kind of off. Is there some reason for that vote?
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@MW
I misstated my case in my previous post. The point I was trying to make was that given that mods balance games for even odds of success and not quite that it was a strictly town favouring setup. The fact that we have negative utility roles implies that there was a need to counterbalance what was deemed to be town strength. Admittedly, your point that the board tends to give roles to everyone makes the point somewhat less relevant, but the point stands that there was some need to mitigate town power roles or to strengthen the chances of a small or quirky mafia.
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Laurels' point, I think, seems to be that pushing for a lynch of one of two shady people gives us information that we are severely lacking in. Furthermore, in the process of attempting to/preventing the lynch further information can be gotten by the defenses that a potential lynch target gives. There is a logic behind this, although I don't like the idea personally, given that low information lynches are risky in my opinion and are for more pressing situations.

I haven't liked Laurel's playstyle either, because she's been playing quite a confrontational game. She was one of two people who stated that they thought that Paige might have been bluffing on day one, despite the bluff being pointless, as Toben mentioned. She's also been called out for assuming that mafia may have forgotten to vote. Furthermore, she's been pretty insistent on pushing a lynch on Rorick. While his play has been a little scummy, it's a little weird that she implicates RC in this as well, because it seems to me that RC was genuinely suspicious of Rorick, which is understandable from Rorick's play. Furthermore, she's been continuing to press Rorick after explanations that I believe were satisfactory.

@Laurels So what leads you to think that it's likely that one or both of them is scum rather than the exchange being townie on townie conflict and what are your reasons to continue suspecting Rorick?
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EBWOP: I meant 'in the process of attempting to lynch or preventing the lynch' on line one. I don't even know why I thought that was readable.
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Toben's argument against Laurels is mine all over again, but way better and more detailed. I was a bit hesitant to vote earlier given that Rorick's position was still a little iffy, but now that the whole thing has been largely cleared up, I'm more willing to put pressure on her.

VOTE: Laurels

I especially don't like the fact that she dismisses many possibilities when pushing her views. While she explains most of these away as human error, the amount is a little too much to be very believable IMO. The way things have played out makes my questions less relevant, but I still would like answers to them. I'll repeat the questions here, because digging through threads is a pain.

What led you to think that it's likely that one or both of them is scum rather than the exchange being townie on townie conflict?
What were your reasons to continue suspecting Rorick?
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Okay, I really see no reason why you felt you needed to defend yourself from the same question twice, especially since I noted that I was just repeating the questions for ease of reading. At least the replies to both sets of questions are somewhat consistent. Just got a couple more questions.

Laurels
 

Maybe "scum done goofed" isn't the best theory, but I'm willing to believe it since these kinds of queens wait until you're all besties before they throw beads on the floor while you're lip synching and pray you slip a disc. I think they could play the long con.

I don't see any reason to think that mafia would willingly give up a night kill, their main advantage for no reason. What's your reasoning behind this, because it seems like you're relying on flavour to back your argument.

Laurels
 
Sure, Bianca's likely a town role (since the only people who'd think she's scum are Laganja and Gia and they're not exactly the smartest knives in the toolkit), but I feel like anyone could (and would want to) claim as her to be a safe town role.

So you think that it's likely that Rorick, might be attempting a safe claim? What do you think about the fact that no one has counter claimed watcher then?
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Hmm. I suggest that we do look at those who voted for Laurels as a little iffy, even though scum could have safely stayed off that bandwagon. (Yes I did vote for Laurels why did you ask?) Four votes means that it's unlikely that we'll catch any scum out from there but it's still a lead, even if small. I mean, at the time it looked like a free townie/3rd party and it would have wasted the day. Losing more dayphases was the last thing town needed.

Agree on Rugga's point that it's likely for town to have tried to kill Laurels. IMO, mafia wouldn't have bothered to spend their night kill on her.

I personally think it's more likely for us to have a vig than a SK. It's quite unlikely that we'd have both, especially given night one, unless the vig is a x-shot vig and even then we'd have a missing kill from tonight to account for.

Never seen a Mason before. If there's only one left though, I'd think that a claim would be hard to double check. It'd sorta be like saying that you're town, you can only check by flavor and even then, it's still iffy.
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MW
 
Actually, if we only have one mason left, it's super easy to check. The mason should probably claim soon, so it's not he-said-she-said at LYLO or whatever (unless they have some other useful power). If nobody counter-claims, the claimant is legit. If someone does counter-claim, we lynch one of them, then the other if we guessed wrong. It's a horrible idea for scum to trade one for one to get rid of a useless role like a mason, even if that useless role does let someone get confirmed as town.

Oh yeah. Completely didn't realise that a counter claim would get them wrecked.

About the missing kill. We have three kills from last night. If we assume that there is an SK, a vig (x-shot or otherwise), Rugga as a JOAT and mafia, that'd be four kills for last night. I was arguing it's unlikely that there is both a SK and a vig given that there were three kills last night. Looking back on it though, I guess doctor/bulletproof is also a possible explanation to that, though is it possible that multiple people took shots at Laurels?

About the vote thing. I was under the opinion that because it looked like scum play, scum might have had some benefit in pushing for that lynch. Town would also want her out of play because either she was scum, or she was impeding play. I wasn't trying to say that anyone on that vote was inherently suspicious from voting there, but that there was benefit for scum to be on there. I guess trying to draw conclusions from that was a bit fruitless.
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Okay. My thoughts on the things that have been going on.

Prim feels a little bit scummy, but I largely agree with Boogie that it feels like cautious townie play than scum.

I'm reading Frogue as leaning town, he's been chasing leads in a manner that I feel is pro-town. It's a gut feeling more than anything, though.

@Rugga I'm don't remember pushing for a Rorick lynch. My first two posts on day two were about my thoughts about setup, and then my next post was on Laurels. I did mention that I was uncertain about Rorick, but that was cleared up between my third and fourth day 2 posts. I don't see where you got the idea where I was pushing for a lynch on him?

Agree that we should watch for Boogie, because he's really laying low. @Boogie Do throw up your thoughts on who seems suspicious.

RC's not making a good case for himself, especially after getting into two fights with people now assumed to be town.
@RC Why would you read Laurels as trying to distract mafia? Flavour may have been part of Laurel's actions, but any distractions in general tend to harm town more than mafia because town has less information to run off. Mafia know who their members are and who they've tried to kill at minimum, meaning they can cut through a decent amount of noise.
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My thoughts on RC:
I was reading RC slightly as town at first during the whole thing with Rorick, mostly because I felt Rorick was being sketchy at the time. I have a note somewhere that says that his posts were a little information light before that, but I'm a bit lazy to go corroborate that right now, and given that it was day one or two, it's not much of a decisive factor.

I didn't vote because was kinda waiting for more thoughts on the issue before I decided, especially since my initial reading of him was somewhat town. I didn't quite understand where RC was coming from in this fight and didn't want to make a snap decision. By now though, my opinion of him is a little more mixed. The defense is coming off with a kind of anger that I don't expect from a townie-(sorta)confirmed townie fight. He was pushing on Rorick quite hard for the first half of day two, and attempted to convince Rorick not to reveal his investigation after the claim. Like I said earlier, being in fights with someone who is practically confirmed town also reads badly in his direction. I'm not entirely convinced that he's scum, but there's more than enough sketchiness for me to be okay with a lynch in his favour.

On the wagon:
Slam's vote has a little weak reasoning, but it's not a rare reason for town to vote for someone. A little sketchy.

Prim's vote feels like she's basically saying 'I think he's scummy, I'm voting for him' with little extra explanation. If any one vote was suspicious, it'd be hers.

I think Z's vote is more legitimate because of an earlier post voicing discontent with the direction RC was taking things. I also like the way RC's actions on day two are used to support the vote, because to me this isn't just 'RC slips up once and gets angry', it's 'RC has been aggressive/defensive for two day phases straight'.

Rorick's vote seems okay, because he's using it as pressure to push for a claim. I'm a little uncertain about it as a tactical move, but it seems legit to me.

On a flip:
If RC flips town, I'd look at Prim and maybe Slam.

I was willing to accept Prim's previous sketchiness as cautious town actions, and a town flip wouldn't make me think she's definitely scum, but her vote is sketchy and I'd feel she'd be the scummiest at that point barring mysterious night/other events.

Slam, like RC was also pushing on Rorick, but in a much less aggressive manner on day two and has been a little light on information in posting. I have much less certainty on this one, though.

One thing I'd say is that if RC flips mafia, I'd give Bik and Slam light town cred given that RC was using the lisps to claim that one of them was likely to be mafia.
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Hmm. I haven't looked too much into other mafias so I wouldn't know how RC or other people play. I'll take his statements with a heap more salt given the case. I'm also willing to give a bit more leeway to Prim given that it seems to be her style of play.

Cutting down Rugga's list of people who have voted on both Rorick and Laurels, we still have RC and Boogie.

RC's continued reticence to full claim feels like an important fact. @RC Are you willing to at least give a reason why you won't full claim? I don't see what the benefit of not claiming is when you're sitting at L-2.

Turning to look through Boogie's posts, I think that a lot of what Boogie has said is either really low information or unrelated to mafia and he's been very ready to go with the flow of events without actually divulging any of his opinions. He's also largely avoided directly replying to any of the comments noting his lack of presence, only replying once to defend Prim. His reasoning for voting on Rorick is actually a little similar to his vote on Laurels.
dmboogie
 
In the void of any claims or other evidence, scumhunting is needed so the town just doesn't twiddle their thumbs.

VOTE: RORICK

I don't like the way you're deflecting suspicion, man.
He says, twice in fact, that he wants something to be done but hasn't acted upon that apart from his votes. That's suspicious in my opinion. I'm not going to vote for him right now, because I don't know how the RC thing is going to play out and I want to hear Boogie's replies to Frogue's argument and other opinions. As of now, however, Frogue's argument seems particularly convincing.
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On number of likely mafia: We've had a hated and a jester. I'm really leaning towards 3 mafia members. Given the amount of negative utility town has had, I also don't think there'd be much in way of third parties left given that as well (especially since we've already had one).

@RC I really don't buy your argument for not claiming because it seems weird. I'd think your resistance to claiming already made you to be a bigger target than you would have liked. The only two things you could have been were scum or a power role and scum would know which you were while town wouldn't. By keeping the claim to yourself, you'd would deprive town of information, especially if you died overnight. If you were town, I don't see why making your claim next dayphase would have helped,. I was banking on a flavour confirmation that you were town, but Rugga's post has me convinced.

We're running out of time on this day as well, so I'm just gonna vote.

VOTE: RC

I'm thinking Prim largely checks outs fine, because I don't think spending two potentially risky claims to exonerate one guy is really worth it. Still could be a safe claim, but I'd read her as leaning town now.
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