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RuPaul's Drag Race Mafia Game Thread; Woooooo girl, she already done had herses!
Topic Started: Apr 28 2016, 02:27 AM (10,595 Views)
MurderWeasel
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VOTE: Prim for following Deamon's vote for not voting with a post without a vote. You thought the danger had passed!

Also role confirmed and stuff.
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MurderWeasel
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Normally when I say I have no clue what to make of game flavor, I'm able to piece stuff together from context/wikis over time. In this case, though, the lingo has me baffled like nothing else. Just sorta throwing that out.

Gonna wait to say anything more concrete for the check-in, but honestly cannot imagine any situation in which Paige is bluffing--it's just way too bizarre a gambit to pull when not true, with zero payoff at this stage of the game and phase.
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My thoughts:

Deamon's posts are a bit weird to me because of how they come together. The first post is a knee-jerk roleblock assumption. The second post then immediately second guesses that by adding commuter and bulletproof as possible explanations. What's notably absent is any recognition of the most common role that could have prevented a kill: the doctor (and, by extension, the JOAT in many setups). I'm not sure if we can pull anything from that omission, though should it later come to light somehow that there is no doctor, I'll have questions for Deamon (if we discover at any point that there assuredly is a doctor, the omission becomes largely meaningless, unless we discover mafia have a hitman).

What's more immediately interesting to me, though, is the correction. Deamon, why did you add the second post?

I'm liking Frogue and RC's additions to the discussion, as each has pushed against a simple narrative. Laure's suggestion that it's just an activity goof, on the other hand, rubs me the wrong way, especially in light of the fact that we already had a whole slew of more probable possibilities on the table. Laure, what makes you think scum forgetting to send in an action is more probable than any other explanation?

I like the ways Randomness is thinking but think there are a few connections not quite being made. I doubt the setup intentionally favors town or scum; typically mods balance aiming to give factions a fairly equal chance at success (with outliers usually being single-player factions; it's really tough to give a serial killer decent odds, and slightly easier but still somewhat challenging to properly balance around jesters, survivors, lynchers, etc.). That said, a negative utility role like Paige's would absolutely be part of the balance equation, and similar roles (like the miller) are often used to help mitigate town power found elsewhere, especially in games featuring a lot of power roles (and SOTF mafia often skews towards giving everyone some sort of power, which can really easily make the game massively town-favored unless balanced with major care).

Rugga's comment rubs me very slightly wrong because it takes a good idea (moving on!) and then backpedals just a bit to introduce a dangerous idea (there is only one killing faction!). It does this in the form of a question, the answer to which is, of course, that we have no idea yet, as our grand list of possible options for why there was no kill applies equally to all factions and this could easily be a case of several things happening to several different factions. The result of this is also stirring people to further questionable discussion while at the same time calling for it to end.

BOO lack of EBWOP. Boo! Shame!

On the actual content: There's basically no reason for a typical serial killer to long con people, unless they have some sort of massive advantages. If an SK is not immune to investigations, then the longer the game goes, the more likely they are to get caught out by a cop. If an SK is not immune to nightkills, the longer a game goes the more likely they are to get hit by other scum/a vig/whatever other kill role there is. In any event, the longer things go the more chances town has to get a lucky lynch. In return, the only risks mitigated come from watchers/trackers/in very specific circumstances roleblockers. There's just no real payoff for baiting the game like that outside of super specific and unconventional setups (like Scrubs mafia).
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Laurels
May 3 2016, 07:53 PM
MurderWeasel
May 3 2016, 06:49 PM
Laure's suggestion that it's just an activity goof, on the other hand, rubs me the wrong way, especially in light of the fact that we already had a whole slew of more probable possibilities on the table. Laure, what makes you think scum forgetting to send in an action is more probable than any other explanation?
*shrug* Iunno. Human error? We can't all be as flawless as Beyonce.
But was there some deeper reason behind the error? Some pattern in play or other cue signalling the situation to you?

Rugga
 
After thought it occurs to me that it's totally possible for mafia's person to be blocked and for mafia to have blocked a SK. It's been so long I forgot mafia typically has a blocking role >_>

A number of other things could also have been the cause--it could even be two scum factions trying to shoot the same person and finding them protected by a doctor.

Rugga
 
I find it strange that both Slam and Bik have a lisp. It would seem weird for Ricky to give two people the same posting restriction and there aren't a whole lot of "characters" that lisps could be

Hmm... the thing here that's making me slightly less suspicious is that both [url]Bik[/url] and [url]Slam[/url] posted with lisps before you broke down what they meant. That marks it as an odd thing to fake for me, since it would be unprompted. At the same time, if we have two lispers out of a pool including two probable town and one probable scum, that skews the odds that one of the two is scum, though I'm not quite ready to crunch the numbers on exactly how much.

re: Boogie and Frogue: I think Frogue's question is actually really insightful. That said, I also think it's hard pull much from Boogie's rejection of it, because the suggestion is that Rorick might be the SK, and the SK operates alone. That said, given my knowledge of Rorick I rate the comment as fairly low suspicion for reasons I'll elaborate on after he answers, in case I'm wrong.

Rorick
 
I used 'he' as a pronoun because of me being used to German grammar, despite my best efforts to not slip up when writing in English.

^Yeah, this is 100% what I expected. German is a gendered language and my grandmother still calls all our dogs "he" regardless of actual canine gender.

Deamon
 
I'm waiting for Tobe to pitch in with a proper reaction to it before I leap into an attempt to discern Riki's reasoning when he is historically vague and keeps it close to his chest.

I mean, what is there to say? I basically got joke-voted on day two. Not much to discuss!

Bik later says policy lynch. Eh, I of course find that quite silly, but I also have default pressure targets in want of better things to do. Bik, though, can I hear your take on everything else that has transpired??

Laure
 
Like Rugga mentioned in the last day phase, the most well known lisping queens from the show are Jiggly Caliente, Trinity K. Bonet, and Kim Chi. None of them were villains in their seasons, although Jiggly and Trinity got into a few fights (and usually with queens who were considered "good" such as Dida Ritz and Bianca del Rio, respectively). I don't know if they'd be mafia, but odds are lispers are more likely townies.

I find it unlikely a restriction shared between multiple players would confirm as either town or scum; in either case it would skew balance out of whack.

Rorick
 
I feel that if we both end up being town, this discussion right now will be detrimental to potential teamwork in the future, so I would - again - ask of you to end this discussion right here, okay?

I honestly wasn't seeing RC's point a ton earlier, but this throws me a little. Rorick, do you mostly play RL mafia or online mafia? I forget.

Deamon: What does Halleloo even mean?

Rugga
 
For sure either Bik or Slam is Kim though since she's the most prominent lisper, at least one of them is town, they aren't both scum running some complicated lisp plan.

Most prominent as in strongest lisp? Or most notable lispy character?

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Ruggahissy
May 5 2016, 02:00 PM
Re: Your question on Kim as the most prominent lisper, the answer is both! Her lisp is the strongest and most noticeable of all the characters (it gets pointed out frequently) and she's also the highest ranking (currently in the top three of her season) and most beloved by fans of the characters mentioned.
Then we can eliminate Bik as potentially being Kim, as he mentioned his lisp was supposed to be partial/understated. That leaves me ready to give Slam some (very) tentative town credit based on setup spec.

Rugga
 
It occurs to me in looking for "halleloo" gifs how weird this mafia must be for people unfamiliar with the theme

You would not believe it. xD

@Rorick: Hmm... I was gonna guess RL mafia. Can you clarify what you meant here for me a bit?

Rorick
 
I feel that if we both end up being town, this discussion right now will be detrimental to potential teamwork in the future
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See, here's what I'm not liking about the Rorick/RC thing:

RC seemed to get riled up kind of easily. I see where he was coming from, but unless there was something very subtle going on, it was a logical lapse. RC saw Boogie as potentially defending Rorick from Frogue's (largely innocuous) question. The thing is, Frogue's suspicion was only meaningful in its potential to paint Rorick as the hypothetical SK (barring some wackiness like psychopath/therapist or whatever), which makes Boogie's intervention as allied scum unlikely were there any grounding to Frogue's claim; after all, nobody would come to the aid of an SK, as their whole thing is being a one-man faction.

Now, is there a possibility that Frogue jumped on something innocuous and caught out a scum member and a different scum player tried to bail them out? Sure. I find it a little unlikely, though, because it seems a strong knee-jerk response to an incorrect accusation, especially as it'd be more useful in such a case for Rorick to just exonerate himself through whatever means. My read is that Boogie probably jumped on it as a fairly easy tangent to pick up on and get a couple posts out of; his style is very low-key and thus he needs to pick up posts where he can (also, while we're on the subject, let's please not let Boogie do the lurker-coast to lategame yet again, yeah?). But yeah, I read the whole thing as basically null from everyone involved, with fairly iffy reasoning from all corners except Frogue.

But then we come to the fallout, which is what gets my attention. Rorick is going way out of his way to bury the accusations in a quite aggressive fashion that's geared more to burying the whole thing with all expedience than towards defending himself or exploring RC's thought process. In fact, in this post I've done more unpacking of why the original accusation makes no sense than Rorick has in at least ten posts (I didn't count reactions that were just .gifs) on the subject.

Now, in RL mafia, things work a little differently. There is way, way more value to burying accusations quickly, because you can't really go back and dig through past clashes for information. It's also more of a social game of persuasion, with fewer opportunities to "solve" games and win through math and calculated claims/action usage. What I'm getting from Rorick that makes me suspicious is a really major sense of defensiveness coupled with an attempt at narrative control that is a little clumsy in the context of online mafia, but would play a lot better in an IRL game. That doesn't necessarily mean Rorick's scum, but he's clearly taking a heavy interest in staying alive (normal and null) but doing so through bluster and rhetoric rather than analysis and logic (scummy).

This may be a bit scattered. Please prod if you want any elaboration.
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Faith
May 5 2016, 06:25 PM
Ooooooooh, there are guests, who's lurking uh? Scared?
A couple possible answers here:

First, the bots that sweep the site sometimes often tag the highest activity threads (which mafia threads usually are).

Second, a lot of folks (myself included), like to type reactions to everything as they go, or like to read a snippet here and there without time to chug through the whole thread. Accessing the thread on your account, however, screws up the "not viewed" flag and dumps you at the end of whatever posts were there when you clicked it last, making it hard to see what you read or did not read.

Thus, I at least will pop open an incognito window to view the thread unless I'm totally committed to taking a shot at a post. I'm sure it's not the same for everyone, but I don't think it's too uncommon among those of us who tend to run a bit verbose.

@Rorick: read and acknowledged! Will provide further thoughts in a bit if necessary.
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Five pages since last time I read. -_-

This may be somewhat cursory.

Rorick
 
Unless there is a rule I'm unaware of that reads that we absolutely have to lynch someone each day, I do not see why a lynch is necessary here? Only the Hated is dead and no hard facts are on the table, a lynch like this is far more likely to kill a Townie than scum right now.

Basically, if town doesn't lynch, it gives scum all the power. Yes, town can dig up information via investigative roles, but they can end up blocked/killed/whatever. More than that, no lynches = no flips = no trail to use to base inferences off of.
Prim
 
I'm not that convinced to vote for anyone right now. I think we should just wait a night and see if something happens.

Agreed on not lynching Rorick in light of further developments, but what on earth do we gain tomorrow that we lack today?
Rorick
 
It is far more likely that a lynch would end up benefitting the Mafia, make up for their missed nightkill. The Town is more likely to shoot itself in the foot rather than actually making good progress here.

Yes and no. There are mathematical arguments and such to be had, but generally speaking stalling lets scum take control and leaves us with nothing to use come lategame. We need to have disputes and establish patterns because if an investigative role claims they effectively seal their fates the next night barring very specific setups that most mods avoid. So, if they try to take down more than one scum member, they risk dying before claiming, and if they claim to trade one for one but there's nothing else to go off of, we're in the same spot as now, just down however many townies scum kill between now and then.

Now of course, we don't want to lynch just to lynch--we want to catch scum. But I believe there's ample evidence to at least isolate members somewhat more likely to be scum at this point.
Prim
 
It looks like Boogie is doing the vote bandwagoning. Not really liking how Boogie just jumped in like that to do a vote.

^Boogie.gif Gonna go ahead and nominate him for eventual policy lynching if there's ever nothing better going on, mostly because he does this every game, town or scum, but I feel it's way more effective as a scum game while as town his loss isn't that crippling (big power roles aside).
Rorick
 
RC
 
Are you able to watch yourself, Rorick?


I don't think so, unless the rules for that in this version of Mafia are different from the one I usually play.

I see the answer is theoretically "yes" based on later posts. However, would like to take a brief moment to note that I feel self-watching is likely to be of limited utility for a few reasons.

If you self-watch and scum kills you, you die and the info is useless. If you self-watch and scum and the doctor both visit you, you basically sell out one to trade for the other, and that costs us two town PRs for one scum member. There are some ways to be sneakier here, but honestly I'm not seeing them going well given how stuff has shaken out so far.

If you self-watch and scum targets you with other stuff, it can go a few ways. Scum could roleblock you (roleblockers being among the most common scum roles here) in which case your action is useless. I doubt they'd even bother, though. You could use self-watching to confirm that allegedly town roles target you, but if scum has any sort of funky power role (flavor cop, framer, who knows what?) they can just coast along and use your role to help set up a fake claim later. If there's ever a super pressing need to confirm that, yes, someone can target someone else and not kill/roleblock them, I guess you could self-target then... but then scum could just kill/roleblock you and neutralize it.

So I guess what I'm saying is, be wary of using your action for something pointless--if you make clear you're planning to watch yourself, the teeth go out of your threat in many ways.

Rorick
 
I did not find anything on Night 1, unfortunately. I watched Murderweasel, since I deemed him someone people would be trying to target, be it by protecting him or trying to eliminate him. However, no one beside myself visited him, so I suppose I was wrong there.

Can confirm to my knowledge nobody monkeyed with me last night. Of course, my knowledge here is super limited as many actions wouldn't be announced to me.

That said, overall I'm generally trusting Rorick's claim. It fits his play so far nicely, given his personality.

RC
 
Imagine you'd be attacked by the mafia and the doc saves you. Then you have a 50/50 chance of knowing a mafia. Or, the doc visits you and mafia kills someone else. Then you secretly know a person you're 100 percent certain to be town.

Nooooooo that's not a great idea IMO for reasons outlined above. Rorick, do what you think is best and whatever you do, don't tell us. The less scum knows, the better. But pleases carefully consider the potential payoff of self-watching.
backslash
 
I'm inclined to believe Rorick's claim on the basis that Bianca is a fan-favorite and possibly the most popular Drag Race winner of all time, I'd be shocked if she wasn't in this game, and given all of that it's not a claim I'd expect anyone to fake because of how quickly it would get shot down.

Just as a note: the whole point of good safeclaims is that they make claiming risky and avoid obvious setup speculation. Like, if there are five main characters, it'd be really common practice to actually leave one for scum as a safeclaim. Now, that's not ow they're always implemented in SOTF and who knows if Ricky's using them in the first place, but I think we gain way more from considering if flavor matches role and even more from considering the claim on its own merits, with flavor a very distant secondary concern.


I'm gonna go ahead and throw my vote at the person who's come off as shiftiest to me thus far. VOTE: Laurels

This isn't a super amazing case, honestly, but it's more than I've got on anyone else. I'm not a huge fan of the "scum dun goofed" explanation for the lack of night kills as a townie line of thought--it's just so much an outlier of a situation that it shouldn't even enter the conversation in normal circumstances. If it is the case, the only ones with any reason to legit suspect it would be scum themselves. Moreover, even if it's not the case, scum are the ones who benefit from the explanation being pushed--in such a situation it serves as misinformation and lulls town into complacency.

It could be a town mistake, of course. It could be that even given my followup, but what I didn't like was the way that shook out. I didn't get a better explanation of the thought process, a hint at some reasoning (even a flawed one) or anything, just a "whoops" which seems designed to move along with as little attention paid to the subject as possible followed by a doubling down. I usually let that sort of thing go on the grounds of confusion being hard to feign, but this time the specifics of the supposition make me look at it differently. It's especially weird because Laure actually hinted at the "scum didn't send stuff" theory two separate times. I also didn't dig the apologetic/conciliatory tone in response to my prodding. It just doesn't fit the situation, and doesn't gel with Laure's voice in the rest of the thread--it seemed designed to shake me. Like, compare this to this--that's different tones being used to try to manage different people's reactions, but it feels a little artificial to me.

Then there's, as mentioned, the "pick one" deal with RC/Rorick. Given that thet's now looking like a potential townie slapfight, that makes me raise an eyebrow because it's the sort of thing that can be easily used to try to chain mislynches.

Then, Laure pushes for a claim rather preemptively, IMO. That's almost too unsubtle for scum, but... I don't like it.

re: the Yugi thing, I honestly don't make anything of that. I dunno. Maybe I'm missing something, but it seemed like an odd train of thought sort of sputtering out; I could see it as town or scum and actually might even err town on that singular instance.

Ah, and one more little thing: we can infer, based on Laure's thoughts on the nightkill, that he is probably not a town-aligned protective, NK-immune, or blocking role of any sort; if he were, I find it very unlikely he'd lead town on a wild goose chase, as other possibilities would be at the forefront of his mind. That actually knocks out a fairly wide swath of potential town roles, and his play doesn't match up too well with most of what's left from my perspective (with a few exceptions that aren't particularly high value roles if you ask me).

This is kinda scattered I think, but eh, it is what it is. That's where I am re: a favorite suspect at the moment. I've talked myself into it a bit more as I typed and reviewed posts, and would love a readover and thoughts. Would especially love to hear from Frogue, Rorick, and Backslash; do y'all think I might be onto something here, or am I tilting at windmills?
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backslash
May 7 2016, 11:30 AM
In regards to Rorick's claim again: I see what you mean about safeclaims, but if we're going by flavor I think that Bianca is unlikely to be scum. Even if one of the winners is included as a mafia role, I can think of others who seem more likely (Tyra Sanchez and/or Violet Chachki maybe, potentially Raja since she was the one who did have a sort of alpha bitch clique during her season).
I actually don't think you are quite following.

Basically, let's say the theme is Star Wars mafia, and town is the Rebel Alliance. You'd normally think that, say, Han Solo, Luke Skywalker, Obi-wan, Princess Leia, and Chewbacca would be town roles, and maybe Darth Vader and Boba Fett scum. However, to balance for this, an actual setup might look more like Luke Skywalker, Princess Leia, Han Solo, Chewbacca, and Biggs Darklighter as town, and Darth Vader and Boba Fett as scum. At the same time, the mod would give Obi-wan to Vader and Fett as a safeclaim--they'd be told that town doesn't have Obi-wan, and thus be able to claim him without fear of being counter-claimed. That's why I'm saying we shouldn't totally accept a claim just because it sounds right and nobody counters it.
Laure
 
I dunno. I also think watcher is a role that could be excised from a game, so it could be a safe fake role claim.

I actually do agree that watcher isn't a super amazing claim from a general standpoint. If Rorick were someone more experienced, I'd be significantly more skeptical, but I just don't see him having the familiarity with our meta to pick Watcher as an option to gamble with. I suppose it's possible scum has full safeclaims (characters and roles), but that's pretty uncommon and doesn't really gel with the way his play has developed from my standpoint.
Rorick
 
But let's assume you are right and I not only know the show, but also am scum. Do you believe I would pick Bianca del Rio, who apparently is a fan favourite as far as you guys have said, a person who is therefore very likely to be featured in this game and can easily be counterclaimed? Not only that, but my claim of being a watcher would have to be phony as well, which doubles the risk of being called out on it. Does that not strike you as something a little too bold?

Well, basically as I said above, there's one specific instance where such a claim would make sense under pressure without much outside knowledge. That said, it's sorta risky even there as there are ways to test your claim if need be (to... at least a certain minimal extent).
Laure
 
I'd assume you'd have put some in, and Bianca would be a good character to claim since most Drag Race familiar people would assume she's on the town's side, and if anyone else were Bianca, they might not want to claim her since it could expose them as a key townie.

As useful as town PRs often are, there's almost no situation here where it'd be in town's favor to not counterclaim. Even a flavor counterclaim would sink Rorick, and leave enough ambiguity and wiggliness to mindgame scum and probably last a night or two. Really, the only reason I see for some other Bianca to not claim is if they have an NK and are just gonna quietly pop Rorick overnight, in which case, well, that takes care of the problem too. If Rorick lives to tomorrow and nobody opens the phase with a counterclaim, I think we can assume none is forthcoming and view any that might materialize later with extreme skepticism.

Looks like we're probably gonna wrap things here soon without a lynch. With respect and enjoyment to Laure's obvious enthusiasm and passion for the theme, he's still my favorite at the moment and I sorta wanna have that on record before the night phase starts. I do for sure agree with poking into Yugi more, though, and will reiterate my "Beware Boogie come mid-lategame" thing for posterity. Will try to look over everything again over the night phase, too, to see if I catch anything I've missed.
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Rorick Skyve
May 11 2016, 03:04 PM
Laurels' death does suggest that there is a NK as well, though, be it a SK or some other. Which makes the current situation only more dire for the town.
Eh, this depends. Could also easily be a vig, which is good for town.
Prim
 
It is odd that Deamon didn't say anything about being shot. It would have been helpful if he had done so. Unless he wanted to keep quiet about it? Which would have been bad for town.

Whether or not a bulletproof knows their protection has been used tends to vary by setup. It's possible he had no idea.
Boogie
 
It'd kinda make sense for scum to go after you just to get a confirmed town out of the way, but in that case I'd imagine they'd go after Rorick before you.

For... a certain value of confirmed town. Rugga, can I hear a bit more about your investigation on Laure? Were the choices just Scum/Not Scum?
RC
 
However, Dea's intention might be that he could scumhunt in the assumptions as to why there was no kill. Lemme reread. After all he was the only one knowing why there was none, if Ricky PMed him that he had been hit.

Not necessarily. We've seen there are multiple kills, so he could've been just as in the dark aout the total lack--especially as if he ate two shots, he'd've presumably died anyways.
RC
 
So yeah. Yugi seems suspicious, since he pointed out that mafia was blocked, which would be a thing only mafia would know.

Yugi is dead and was a Mason. Potentially that can get town something, but maybe not--depends on the size of the Mason network. We do know there's at least one other Mason in the game, now.
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Ruggahissy
May 11 2016, 04:46 PM
I said "I use my investigation on Laurels" and I was given "Laurels is not scum"
Sweet. That's basically enough for me to trust you as town unless someone counter-claims you with different investigative results. I think it's safe to assume that cop and JOAT investigations should work the same (unless we have a role cop or something strange like that), so if nobody comes out and says Rugga's lying about the style of results received, she's probably telling the truth. If someone does counter, Rugga's 90% likely to be scum as it makes zero sense for scum to trade for a JOAT who's used their actions and similarly little sense for investigations to work differently for different roles.
Rorick
 
I would like to bring up the possibility/likelihood of scum having a roleblocker again. My results of last night clearly indicate to me that I was somehow roleblocked. Could also be a Jailkeeper.

This seems fairly probable to me as well. A town normal roleblocker would likely have stayed on the same target from the first night, given the lack of kills, to see if they'd caught out scum. Jailer is also a possibility, though, along with the functionally-identical doctor variant we've seen occasionally during the past.
Backslash
 
Would it be possible for you to share exactly what your "no result" message was? Did it say that nobody visited the person you watched/you saw nothing interesting, or did it specifically say you were unable to obtain a result? I'd say the latter points much more clearly to a roleblock than the former.

Okay, this strikes me as a little suspicious. Minor thing, but it's a subtle pull for more information than really needs to be revealed. Why? Because we know Rorick knows the difference between a "Nobody visited my target" and whatever he got last night--he watched me night one and nobody visited me, so obviously if he's claiming something different happened this time, there is something he can compare it with. Fishing for a more specific wording, on the other hand, could allow scum to better fake claims down the road or to make it harder for town to distinguish fake claims from real ones based on detail.
Randomness
 
Hmm. I suggest that we do look at those who voted for Laurels as a little iffy, even though scum could have safely stayed off that bandwagon. (Yes I did vote for Laurels why did you ask?) Four votes means that it's unlikely that we'll catch any scum out from there but it's still a lead, even if small. I mean, at the time it looked like a free townie/3rd party and it would have wasted the day. Losing more dayphases was the last thing town needed.

The issue with that is that Laure was trying to get lynched, and thus intentionally attempting to bait town. Scum doesn't care if town never lynches anyone--that just gives them more reign to cause trouble during the night. We also don't know know if there's a third party kill role, and if there is (or even if there might be) that would let scum be totally genuine in chasing scummy behavior from those outside their faction.
Randomness
 
I personally think it's more likely for us to have a vig than a SK. It's quite unlikely that we'd have both, especially given night one, unless the vig is a x-shot vig and even then we'd have a missing kill from tonight to account for.

We're not necessarily missing a kill. If we have an SK, they want to hunt scum too. The Laure lynch didn't have enough steam to be guaranteed today, and if he'd flipped mafia that'd've given us some pretty decent leads to follow (Rugga would've been on my radar for sure at that point). Also, town having an unlimited kill from a vig and a one-shot kill from a JOAT in a game this size would be pretty powerful. We could easily have no vig, or a limited-shot vig still holding their fire.
Randomness
 
Never seen a Mason before. If there's only one left though, I'd think that a claim would be hard to double check. It'd sorta be like saying that you're town, you can only check by flavor and even then, it's still iffy.

Actually, if we only have one mason left, it's super easy to check. The mason should probably claim soon, so it's not he-said-she-said at LYLO or whatever (unless they have some other useful power). If nobody counter-claims, the claimant is legit. If someone does counter-claim, we lynch one of them, then the other if we guessed wrong. It's a horrible idea for scum to trade one for one to get rid of a useless role like a mason, even if that useless role does let someone get confirmed as town.
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Randomness
May 12 2016, 02:46 AM
About the missing kill. We have three kills from last night. If we assume that there is an SK, a vig (x-shot or otherwise), Rugga as a JOAT and mafia, that'd be four kills for last night. I was arguing it's unlikely that there is both a SK and a vig given that there were three kills last night. Looking back on it though, I guess doctor/bulletproof is also a possible explanation to that, though is it possible that multiple people took shots at Laurels?
It's also possible a vig held their shot. Generally speaking, it's recommended that vigs only fire when they have a pretty decent suspicion they're going to hit scum, because otherwise they can easily end up helping scum rather than hurting them.
Slam
 
STHo I'm willing to take Rorick'sth hypothesthisth that mafffia have a roleblocker. I don't buy that a townie would blow it on him (and ifff you did then sthhame on you), becausthe a sthcaum wouldn't admit to having a power thisth early in the game in the fffirstht place no matter how much presthsthure they were under. Unlesthsth they were bad.

I don't wholly want to discount the doctor-with-roleblock explanation, but I do agree that scum interference is most likely.
Slam
 
I alstho am not immediately becoming BFFFFFFsth with Rugga (great asth sthhe isth). It'sth pretty easthy to retroactively claim you were doing sthtuffffff involving sthomeone'sth role, and a JOAT with only one ability leffft isth a fffairly reasthonable cover fffor not recreating it.

Can you take another look at my conjectures on this point and give me your thoughts there? I feel like the big thing in Rugga's favor is that she claimed enough specifics on the sort of results she got to get counter-claimed by a cop. Also, if she's lying, a cop should counter-claim her, and probably right now.

Why? Well, a cop at this point can probably clear at least one person, maybe two. More than that, while we'd certainly run the risk of losing the cop at some point, we'd force scum's hand fairly hard, because we have a watcher. The watcher could watch the cop, the doctor/bodyguard/whatever (I think it's a safe enough assumption we have at least one protective role) could protect one of the two, and scum would be unable to block the cop even if they have a roleblocker because in doing so they would get caught by the watcher. At the same time, they'd've already lost a member (Rugga) to the counter-claim. Trading one for one is almost always worthwhile as town, and in this marginally unique case where it would actually probably not lead to the instant death/uselessness of the cop, it's an even better deal for town. (Though all that said, theoretical cop, this is in no way a suggestion to claim if you won't be catching Rugga out in a lie--that would just be putting a huge target on yourself for no reason). But yeah, since that all has yet to happen, I think Rugga's basically cleared.

(Actually, to push this further: here's what's so striking and noteworthy about Rugga's claim: Her investigation returned results in the format of Scum/Not Scum. That's super unusual. Typical investigations are either Town/Scum, Town/Scum/Third Party, or Town/Not Town. I default to the latter. Scum/Not Scum, with harmful third party pinging as "Not Scum," is a super strange setup, and all a cop would have to do is look at any result or maybe even their role PM and go "Hey, my results came in the format of Town/Not Town instead!" and Rugga's claim poofs. It's an absurdly risky claim element to fake because it's 100% verifiable as long as we have an alignment cop of any sort.)
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Rorick Skyve
May 12 2016, 04:54 PM
If by 'we' you mean me, the Watcher, then yes.

Jokes aside though, if the Mafia does indeed have a roleblocker, they can potentially just keep doing that to me and render me useless.
This is true. However, the other side of that is that in doing so, they're tying down their roleblocker instead of, say, preventing other valuable town roles from doing stuff. That's a decent enough trade in my book, though where the value lies depends a lot on how the game progresses and what the makeup is (that is to say, if town only has like four or five active, useful PRs then scum's getting a good deal blocking one of them forever instead of flailing around wasting roleblocks on townies without actions. If town has tons of good PRs, then scum is potentially being forced to blow resources shutting down a medium-low utility one).
Boogie
 
I don't think there's much point to watching her, though, especially if we announce that we're gonna do so.

I think discussing the possibilities is good, but directing the watcher is bad. If scum have a decent idea what the watcher is going to do, they can play around it (so if, say, Rorick says he's gonna watch Rugga, and scum doesn't plan on messing with her, then they can roleblock someone else safely. If Rorick doesn't say what he's gonna do, they have to keep the block on him or risk his catching something out).
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Primrosette
May 13 2016, 11:10 AM
Ah, okay. Thank you for telling me. I'm not the only one who didn't do any voting. I didn't want to jump to any conclusions by voting for Laurels. I would have chosen Laurels because they were being the most suspicious. But I'm glad that I didn't jump onto that wagon to vote for the jester. Also I didn't like the idea of just randomly voting for someone in case they turned out to be town.
I mean, I'm a big advocate of just giving Jesters a lynch assuming that doing so doesn't make anyone else lose. It's a mutually-beneficial arrangement, as the jester wins and town doesn't get screwed by someone playing disruptor. We lose a phase for it, but played properly the jester can do way more damage than that (see: Laure getting into the spotlight yesterday by being super sketch).

@Flare: Yay, now I don't have to waste all game trying to figure you out only to inevitably end up wrong.

Sole masons seem unlikely.

Called away unexpectedly so not touching backslash vs. Prim 'til sometime later.
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Ruggahissy
May 13 2016, 05:43 PM
As for Zarina: she didn't try to stop Laurel's lynch, but she didn't vote for him and asked him for alternatives. If she were mafia, it would benefit them to just let everyone lynch Laurels because they know he's not one of their own. There's very little benefit to Backslash to look at other options besides Laurels as mafia. She could have even safely advocated for his lynching without looking scummy because he was being scummy on purpose.

Slight flaw here: it's often in scum's favor to defend townies, and can especially be good in the early phases. If you're the one voice of opposition on a bad early lynch, then that can buy you a good bit of town cred to coast on.

I'm mostly pointing this out because honestly backslash has been reading the opposite to me--she comes off as very opportunistic.

RC's starting to rub me more wrong as this goes, mostly because his style isn't usually this... aggressive. I dunno, the initial thing I buy (especially since fake claiming dumb stuff is basically RC's trademark in much the same way fake claiming bulletproof is mine), but the reaction doesn't quite sit right with me, like maybe he's frustrated with being caught out for the wrong thing? He's not my top pick, but definitely sitting in the wrong end of the pool here. Then again, I'm honestly totally baffled by the seeming non-reading. It's sort of out of character for RC, but if it's true... man, I dunno. This whole exchange from his end makes zero sense, and normally I feel like I'm pretty good at sorting through the morass.

RC
 
Flare/Rorick should lead instead.

I don't quite follow.

Right now, my town rankings are Rugga = Flare > Rorick > everyone else. Rugga and Flare both posted stuff that's super easily verifiable. Rorick is in pretty good shape but more likely to be faking than those two by virtue of making non-verifiable claims (at this stage).

RC
 
Well, Toben's questions aren't important for all of us, just for Toben, since I wouldn't have you asked you these questions. Everybody can scumhunt their own way.

I mean... I think I've laid out like as objectively as one can possibly get in mafia why Rugga's town. The only way she's not is if a. town is misplaying mega hard or b. scum knows a ridiculous amount of setup info (or, I suppose, c. scum has a singularly useless role amongst its ranks).

Rorick
 
I had checked both entries and wanted to see, if RC's answers matched up with what was on the sites. In case he was lying, I thought maybe he would slip up somewhere. Phi Phi isn't mentioned on the German entry for the series at all, for example. But his answers did match up, so he is either telling the truth, or did his research before.

I like the attempt at the catch, but I'm gonna say a failure to be caught means nothing, as such research is pretty quick and easy to do and your questions were leading. Or, put another way, I see it as a test of guilt, not of innocence.

I was looking at backslash pretty hard going into this phase, but am operating on low sleep and various strains of misery and I've got no clue what's even going on with my schedule for tomorrow (score, got a call while writing this and I get to sleep in 'cause a coworker wants to swap shifts, so the world is looking brighter. Still not gonna reread tonight, though. :P ), so I'm gonna raincheck that. Not voting because it feels kinda unfair to do so without laying out a case and double-checking my work.

Obvious town:
Rugga
Flare
Rorick

I feel like I thought they were townie but darn if I can recall why:
Frogue

Null in a way where like null is a read more than an absence of one:
Prim

Sorta scummy:
RC
backslash

Shrug:
everyone else, off the top of my head
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