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One Night Ultimate Mafia Game Thread
Topic Started: Feb 9 2016, 11:49 AM (2,609 Views)
frogue
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Role confirmed!
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frogue
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Here is some maths!

If you started the night with a town role other than a Robber, Witch, Troublemaker, Sentinel or Curator, there is a 30% chance your role changed last night, but a 93% chance you're still town.

If you started the night with a non-town role (ie. Mafia or Fool) there's also a 30% chance your role changed,and an 81% chance you're still not town.

If you started out as a Sentinel, there's a 92% chance you're still town, and a 68% chance you're still a Sentinel.

If you started as a Robber and then became another town role, there's a 92% chance you remained town. If you became non-town, there's a 81% chance you remained non town. The chances of you keeping the role that you robbed are 86%.

If you started as a Curator, there's a 84% chance you're still a Curator, and a 93% chance you're still town.

If you're a Witch or a Troublemaker, I haven't done the maths for you. Sorry about that!
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frogue
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A useful start point might be for people to say whether or not they used a night action. Not what it was, necessarily, or who they targeted, but just like, whether they used one.

Also to note, for those who missed it, Imehal received an item from the Curator. Go her! That means that Imehal is slightly less likely to be lynchable than the average player (1/8 chance vs a 1/7 chance) and also less likely to be anti-town (2/8 chance vs 2/7 chance). Also, whoever the Curator was, that person is a confirmed townie on claiming, since we know their action resolves last, so no one could have switched their roles.

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frogue
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@Penguin The maths didn't reveal anything particularly interesting, but by the time I found out it wasn't going to reveal anything interesting I'd already wasted my time doing it, so I thought fuck it, share it. I guess the main takeaway is that, especially if you're town, your win condition is very unlikely to have changed, so you should play as if you're town. Which like, yeah.

The highest chance of your win condition changing is if you started as the fool, but even then it's not particularly likely.

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frogue
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My maths is unrelated to the curator being conf town. We know curator started town. We know curator's action resolves last. We know curator successfully carried out their action. Ergo we know curator is town.
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frogue
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While we're clarifying things mod, could you clear up how actions resolve? I was acting on the presumption that like, if the troublemaker switched the curator's role with someone else's, for example, when it came time for the curator's action to resolve it wouldn't, because they'd no longer be the curator, which I think is different to penguin's understanding of it?

Clarification would be v helpful!
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frogue
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I did not take a night action
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frogue
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There are seven roles that don't take night actions. Masons, Hunter, Mafia, Minion, Traitor and Fool.

Empress Plush, dmboogie, Yugi, Prim, Imehal and myself have all claimed not to have night actions. I'd say is most likely that all of us are telling the truth about that.

There's only one role that would be motivated to say it didn't have a night action when it did, which is the Stalker, but it's probably not a good call on their part - it puts you in a group with only one claimable non-town role, the Hunter, rather than seven.

I'll say now that I'm the Hunter.

I'd like to hear boogie, Yugi, Prim and Imehal claim now, please. Not fussed about the order, except that Imehal should go last, since we know there's a 5/7 chance she's town, now, regardless of what she started as.

Thoughts? Objections?
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frogue
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I think we don't get informed if our own roles change either, though? Although it does say in the signup post that Troublemaker can't choose to change their own role
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frogue
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Hey sorry RC, just to clarify, can the Troublemaker change their own role?
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frogue
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Sorry, how does Biks claim confirm her?
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frogue
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V suspicious of this. Bik waits until it's clear nobody's gonna claim troublemaker, then says that's him, and that he's switched himself for the one claimed town role so far, which happens to be semi-verifiable (since the other mason can confirm that Empress Plush was also a mason). Then the reason given for this choice, which just happens to be the best possible choice for Bik and one that doesn't really help out town much, is... random?

Not sure I'm buying it.
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frogue
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It's not that risky. Penguin asked troublemaker to claim right at the start of the game, and nobody had. That troublemaker was in the centre was a pretty safe bet. Right before Bik claimed, in fact, Penguin posted basically saying that we should assume there wasn't a troublemaker due to no claim and move on (I'm reading between the lines a bit - apologies to Penguin if I've misinterpreted)

I'd also be very interested to hear your role, boogie
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frogue
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Not to be a pain, but we have a little over five days left, so we should maybe like, get a wriggle on! P_A, I feel like I maybe, 85% know who you are, but @everyone else who hasn't claimed, would be great to hear from you.
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frogue
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I buy it, though would appreciate E P confirmation
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