"We tried to be better, but we aren't. I don't think anyone could last more than a week here if they weren't willing to do bad things." - Alba Reyes

Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]
Viewing Single Post From: Worm Mafia
Member Avatar
Somehow we drifted off too far...
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
My thoughts:

Cicada: Cicada's early posts had my hackles up a lot. That said, my feelings became complicated throughout the first day, leading me to eventually shift gears and focus on CBP instead. Cicada's claim was odd and preemptive, but also gutsy and of the sort unlikely to fly untested unless an unlikely safeclaim. More than that, the only way Cicada is sum is if Randomness is also scum. This means we should not lynch Cicada today under any circumstances. At the same time, we should not take Cicada's vote as 100% in town's interests; there is a chance of sneakiness if Randomness is scum.

CBP: Confirmed town, for reasons beaten to death elsewhere. CBP would've been counter-claimed were there such a thing out there, and the specifics of the role absolutely guarantee a town alignment. Should not be lynched under any circumstances and can effectively unilaterally control the vote if willing to throw the game otherwise.

Deamon: Somewhat slippery and hasn't posted much of content, as he tends to do. His jump from Cicada wagon to CBP wagon looks good to me because of the circumstances surrounding it--he was the first to jump ship after my posts, when continuing to drive the Cicada wagon was most likely to be successful. I like that he supplied some reads, but I'm hesitant because he listed Kermit and Randomness as town reads while nulling everyone else and the rest of my speculations suggest that at least one of those two is scum--only other option I can see is Cicada/Deamon/Prim (unless random tiny scum game) and as I've stated I cannot conceive of a setup in which Cicada is scum and Randomness is not.

Randomness: Here's where stuff gets trickier. Randomness turns serious really early, with focus on Cicada--this looks bad at the current juncture given later weirdness between the two, and Randomness is weird throughout the phase, trying to move the lynch back to Cicada and arguing against being too gung-ho about CBP while also being willing to compromise to secure a lynch. It's an odd, defensive stance. Randomness also is really keen to get details of Yugi's having been blocked, and also is weird about Cicada's claim. I'm actually feeling more certain that there is no Randomness/Cicada collab going on. Also of note: Randomness apparently acted in accord with Cicada's claim, while seeming skeptical of it while it was rolling out.

Coupled with the weird and unverifiable claim that scum could've easily faked, I'm more than a little suspicious of Randomness. Certainly top of those I've listed so far.

Prim: Prim has never voted, has only asked questions, and has basically thrown in the towel. If Prim is town, that's really bad. Prim's greatest involvement is pretty much poking at Yugi's claim, which we now know was legit. Prim's behavior when cornered echos past town games, but something this time feels off to me. Also, chance Prim gets modkilled anyways if my math is right--if Prim is scum that sets town up in much better shape/gives a potential reprieve, and if not that's basically game. That makes Prim a notch lower for me, unless we really think she's for sure the scummiest.

Kermit: Willing to poke at things and take a stand, which I like. Style seems solid, logic follows though is imperfect. Wish we had more recent stuff to go on. I think the assumption that Cicada and Randomness must share an alignment is incorrect but I can see how he got there and it's an odd route to pursue as a gambit.

Thus, I'm left with the following:

Conf Town:

Treat as Town:

Complicated, skews Towny:

Skews Scummy:

Note that if we have three scum I must be wrong about at least one of Kermit, Deamon, and Cicada.

Having thought this all through, my proposed course of action would be to lynch Randomness, hope Prim's scum and gets modkilled, and then cross our fingers that night roles get some mileage. Randomness has the oddest series of posts/the thrust most focused on courses of action that'd've been harmful to town, and the claim is very very convenient and was volunteered in an odd way. This isn't perfect (any lynch here is gonna be way looser than I like given we've had no successes) but I think it's the best odds of town surviving.
Want to join the Illuminati? Ask me how!
Online Profile Quote Post
Worm Mafia · Mafia