"We tried to be better, but we aren't. I don't think anyone could last more than a week here if they weren't willing to do bad things." - Alba Reyes

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Aperture Science Mafia.
f a t a l i t y

Aperture Science Mafia.
FINNISH

HAM

Aperture Science Mafia.
I'm out of things to say as well

Aperture Science Mafia.
We're both off our nuts here

Aperture Science Mafia.
it does alas

Aperture Science Mafia.
Does scum need to hold a 50% + 1 to win? Win condition is usually either control 50% of the votes, or control 50% of the votes and town lacks any way to even it up (i.e. no vig).

If scum need 50% + 1, then yeah, you're right. If not, though, assuming 2 scum we're at LyLo tomorrow regardless of modkill, assuming 3 scum we're at LyLo today regardless of modkill.

Aperture Science Mafia.
What?

No Modkill. 2 scum, assuming everything goes wrong:

8 left today. Mislynch. NK. 6 remaining after nightphase. Mislynch. NK. 4 Remaining after night phase. 2 scum would control 50% of the scum vote, scum victory. That means LyLo tomorrow, 2 phases to catch scum counting this phase.

I'm really fucking tired right now, but I'm pretty sure my math checks out.

Aperture Science Mafia.
Also, a reminder that this discussion is moot as far as deciding what to do with the remainder of the day phase. The only purpose to this is to try to puzzle out whether my behavior is scummy or not. So, like, ask away, but we're not really trying to decide whether to actually do this or not.

Aperture Science Mafia.
Assuming 3 scum, we're already at LyLo, in which case we only benefit from getting more kills off before the nightphase.

Aperture Science Mafia.
I don't see how my math is wrong here?

Assuming 2 scum:

With modkill, mislynch, kill, we're at 5 tomorrow, 3 to lynch. That would take us to LyLo tomorrow.

With mislynch and kill, we're at 6, 4 to lynch. Assuming a second mislynch and a successful NK the night after tomorrow, that would take us down to 4. Assuming 2 scum, they win.

Thus, we're at LyLo either way.

*eyerolls* decoy pls

Aperture Science Mafia.
Vyse said that using it as a second lynch is a no-go, so that's off the table. I just wanted to explain what my reasoning was for pushing for the second kill.

Aperture Science Mafia.
"Decoy flips whatever. We don't lynch. In this case, there would've been any difference since decoy's our lynch for today anyways. Zero loss, net gain of more discussion time to talk about consequences of decoy's flip."

EBWOP: *wouldn't have been any difference

Aperture Science Mafia.
I'd argue that it has a lower chance of backfiring if there's 3 scum. If there's 3 scum left, that means we're already at LyLo barring a successful vig shot on mafia. Since decoy would've been our lynch anyways, modkilling him as opposed to lynching him couldn't have hurt (as Vyse has clarified, modkilling him for the sake of an effective second lynch is against da spirit of da rules, so that's not actually an option anyways). These are all the possibilities with the modkill:

Assuming 2/3 scum:

Decoy flips whatever. We don't lynch. In this case, there would've been any difference since decoy's our lynch for today anyways. Zero loss, net gain of more discussion time to talk about consequences of decoy's flip.

Assuming 3 scum:

Decoy flips town. Lynch flips town. Mafia wins before night phase. This is obviously bad, but it's not really any worse than forcing Mafia to go through the night phase and successfully NK a townie and then win. We lose a possible vig kill, lose the possibility of a successful roleblock/doctor preventing the NK, gain a town-directed kill prior to night phase.

Decoy flips town. Lynch flips scum. We survive LyLo! Yay!

Decoy flips scum. Lynch flips whatever. We survive LyLo! Yay!

Assuming 2 scum:

Decoy flips town. Lynch flips town. Scum NK's town. Vig shoots town. We lose. This is the only possibility where modkilling decoy would've severely backfired on us, but there are so many what-ifs here that I consider it fairly remote.

Decoy flips town. Lynch flips town. Scum NK's town. No vig. We're at LyLo next day phase, but we already would've been even without the modkill.

Decoy flips town. Lynch flips scum. We saved/bought an extra day phase.

Decoy flips scum. Lynch flips town/scum. We saved/bought an extra day phase.

Aperture Science Mafia.
@Paige: What're you townreading Flare for?

Aperture Science Mafia.
This is absolutely not the same situation as last game. Last game, we were in MyLo and didn't have any good lynch options. Hypothetically, we lost little by delaying the lynch a day phase, and letting the night flips tell us more info (I say hypothetically because this was all a scum ploy to take advantage of the double NK we used that night. Vyse would've suggested doing that whether he was town or scum, so that point's kinda moot, though.).

This time, we're either already at LyLo, or LyLo is tomorrow but we're not at MyLo. We have an abundance of targets, lynch-wise. We benefit from maximizing the number of lynches (or 'lynches') in the next day phase or two.

I say we vote decoy off for inactivity. If he flips town...I support a boogie lynch, but the lynch target will probably be me. If he flips scum, I support a boogie lynch. If we're not confident about choosing a new lynch target during the remainder of the day phase, that's okay since decoy would've been our lynch target anyways.

Literally the only way this could worsen our situation, again, is if decoy flips town, lynch flips town, scum kills town off successfully, and vig kills a town.

I'm sending in my vote to modkill decoy. If y'all have convincing arguments as to why that's a bad idea, I'll take it off.

Aperture Science Mafia.
@Everyone: Is modkilling Decoy be an option? Since he's effectively our lynch target today, this would effectively give us two lynches for this day phase. I don't see much of a disadvantage in doing this. Either there's 3 scum left, in which case we're already at LyLo and an extra lynch purely benefits us, or there's 2 scum left, in which case the advantage is...more debatable, but still a net positive regardless of how decoy flips imo. If we don't manage to get a lynch off, decoy was gonna be our target anyways, so nothing lost. If we do get a lynch off, we've effectively bought ourself an extra (albeit short) day phase. The only way this really backfires on us if decoy flips town, our lynch flips town, scum kill goes through, and a vig kills town, which is pretty improbable.

Aperture Science Mafia.
My scumread on Flare is fairly minor and only really comes into play if decoy flips scum, in which case his soft defense of decoy looks kinda suspicious, like scum stalling for one more lynch. Beyond that, his play looks more or less like what I saw of him last game, which is to say he sounds reasonable and his analysis is alright even when I don't totally agree with it, but he could be playing us since he was scum last game. So he's basically a null until the flip, and will stay null if decoy flips town.

Aperture Science Mafia.
On a serious note: Brackie and Paige, despite townreading each other for the most part, have been working at cross-purposes enough that I don't think they're both scum, regardless of the flip. In practice this is a townread on Paige and a *let's wait and see* read on Brackie. I will also side-eye Brackie if decoy flips scum.

Aperture Science Mafia.
Also if this turns out to be a EP/Brackie scumteam I'm gonna facepalm so hard.

Aperture Science Mafia.
Oh, also noting my reads. Paige, RC, Goose for town, in that order. Brackie for town if boogie flips scum. Flare for scum if boogie flips scum. Boogie for scum.