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Setting Up Base Camp
A girl stood in front of Maddie. The girl was about the same height as her, if a bit chubbier. If Maddie remembered correctly, her name was Kammy. She had seen Kammy around school on occasion, but never really talked to her much at all. She wanted to know where a person named Michelle Wexler was. The name rang a bell, but Maddie couldn't exactly put a face to it, and regardless she hadn't seen anyone but two corpses, a murderer, and Nina since she woke up. "Never heard of her, sorry." She shifted a bit. "Plus, I haven't exactly seen many people since I woke up, and I doubt your friend is one of them." She paused. "Regardless, I didn't hear her name on the announcements, so she is probably fine."

She turned and walked a bit back inside. "The island's a pretty big place, going by the map. It's a tad bit unlikely that you will find this person anytime soon." She leaned back a bit on the wall. "Perhaps it would be best if you just lay low for a little while. It's what I am doing, and it's worked out pretty well so far." She turned her head away from Kammy. "It's only been two days though, and this game lasts for weeks..." She whispered to herself.

Maddie shook her head. "Anyway, if you want, you can stay here in this house with me, by all means, you can. You seem the trustworthy type, more scared than psycho." She couldn't just leave Kammy out in the open, to get killed by anyone with murderous intent. Maddie couldn't swindle her like she did Nina, either. No, she was already too guilty from doing that to Nina, so Kammy would go without being drugged. But, she still couldn't actually trust Kammy, even if Kammy did seem rather meek; she could turn psycho just like anyone else. So, would she trust Kammy not to stab her in the back? Well...

Rule One: Don't trust anyone.

Characters who've never met?
Will
Jul 27 2013, 11:58 AM
I don't think I would put it down to a trait of mine. I think I could say quite confidently that the majority of the people in my year also know the names of most of the people in my year.
And..? It still comes down to the person as an individual. If the majority of the people in your year know each other, then individually they have the ability to do just that. People like me (the awkward anti-social types)... don't. Plain and simple.

EDIT: DAMMIT NINJA EDITS.

Will
 
I don't think I've ever had a conversation with someone where I've been talking about someone I don't know that well in my year and the person I've been talking to has said "Who's that?".


I don't know how many times I have said that exact phrase in response to someone talking about someone I didn't know at all.

Characters who've never met?
AND TO ADD ONTO ALL OF MY MATH:

Let me give a little anecdote: it all depends on the person.

Will
 
They'd all probably at least know of each other anyway even if they didn't share a class with each other. I know almost every single person's name in my year at school and I don't think I've even had a proper conversation with even half of them, let alone share a class.


Will here knows people, probably because of an individual trait of his when it comes to remembering people and interacting with them.

HOWEVER, as I myself can attest to, not everyone is like that.

I know the names of 50 people, maximum, out of the 1000 or so in my school. In my grade of 250 or so, it's like, 30 people total. How many of those people do I actually like, know-know?

I'd say about 20 out of the 50 total in my school, and 5 out of the 30 total in my grade. And I met most of those 50 people in my school total in clubs, and most of those 30 people in my grade in middle school and elementary. So to expect EVERYONE to know each other is fairly moot, as ultimately it comes down to how an individual acts, not just math.

Characters who've never met?
Nuggets
 
But in any class of twenty for two hundred students, there is a 20/200 chance that a particular student is in that class. So if we assume A is there and that there's a 10% chance B is also there, it's /10. Take that number, remove a zero, that is the number of different arrangements in which a particular student is in a selected class. Divide that number by your number, you have 1/10.

Very open to discussion here, don't take my defending of my mathing as arguing. Just trying to justify my own rationale.


((posters note: the math here is simplified because the numbers in my calculator are much larger decimal-wise and more cumbersome to type out, if things don't line up exactly when you do my given calculations yourself, that's why))

I am afraid that probability doesn't work that way, my friend.

You see, you cannot simplify probability like that. 20/200 = 1/10, so saying that there is a 1/10 chance that a particular student out of 200 is in a class (EDIT: given your reasoning) is... incorrect. What you are doing is trying to apply total group data to a particular person, which doesn't work. The 20/200 (1/10) statistic only works if you are trying to say that any particular random group of 20 people is going to wind up in that class, and only if the entire student body is divided into groups of 20 and they are trying to select one of those groups as a whole. Instead, in order to calculate for individual people, it gets a whole lot more complicated. This is, again, assuming class placement is random, which it is not, but for the sake of your argument, we will assume it is.

So assuming that they are selecting students at random for this class of 20, the chance of person A being selected for that class starts at 1/200. Let's say another person is picked. So the chance of person A being selected is now 1/199. Let's say another person is selected, now the chance is at 1/198. Let's say this goes on for a while, and it comes down to the 20th person being selected for that class. The chance of person A being the 20th person selected, aka, the maximum possible chance that they could be selected for this class in any individual selection comes down to 1/181. However, it is still not that simple, you have to account for all the other selections too. So, what you are actually supposed to calculate is the probability that student A is selected in one of those 20 picks, either P(A) OR P(B) OR P(C) OR P(D) and so on. You calculate OR's in probability by adding them together, so the math comes down to:

1/200 + 1/199 + 1/198 + 1/197 + 1/196 + 1/195 + 1/194 + 1/193 + 1/192 + 1/191 + 1/190 + 1/189 + 1/188 + 1/187 + 1/186 + 1/185 + 1/184 + 1/183 + 1/182 + 1/181 = 0.1050832266 = 10.5%

So yeah, you had the right answer for one particular student winding up in a class for the wrong reasons. However, if you add in the chance that person B is also in that class with person A, things get more complicated, as you have to apply the above mathematics to character B too, and you have to calculate the odds of P(person A) AND P(person B) which translates to 10.5% * 10.5% which would equal 1.1%.

SO YES, the 10% chance that any individual person winds up in a particular class if they are selecting 20 students out of 200 at random IS right, the chance that A and B are in a particular class is still 1.1%.

NOW, if you take the fact that there are OTHER classes to fill, things get EXTREMELY complicated, so for the sake of keeping things simple, let's continue using that 1.1% number, given that it is the maximum possible chance that person A gets any individual class with another random person. Assuming there are 56 total classes, like MW said, you have to add that 1.1% number together repeatedly, for the chance that A AND B have a class together in class A OR class B OR class C and so on...

So that math comes down to:

1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% + 1.1% (or simply 1.1% * 56) = 61.84%

So there is a 61.84% chance that person A AND person B have AT LEAST ONE class together over 4 years at a high school given a class of 200 and a constant class size of 20. Now, that might seem like pretty good odds, BUT that is just the chance that ONE person meets up with ONE other person. If you want to calculate the odds that person A has AT LEAST ONE class with EVERYONE in his class (all 200 of them) you have to take the above percentage (61.84%) and apply it to person A's probable interactions with EVERYONE, so you get P(person A) AND P(person B) AND P(person C) AND P(person D) and so on... so you get:

61.84%^199 = (2.88 * 10^-42)%

AKA, a REALLY small number.

You can throw around variables and things all day but, ultimately Nuggets, the chances that person A has AT LEAST ONE class with EVERYONE ELSE will never be 100% (aka, in probability terms, certain).

New League of Legends Thread
MurderWeasel
Jul 26 2013, 11:54 PM
Wait, tower dives aren't serious?

I kinda feel like all my favorite strategies are special brands of terrible.
Oh no, it's not that tower dives aren't good strategies, they are just really risky and I was sorta not caring at all whatsoever. I got executed four times in that game.

New League of Legends Thread
Posted Image

Recent LoL match history with appropriate comments on the games.

Looks good y/n?

Avast, ye hearties!
Sara nodded at the captain's orders as the sun sank below the horizon. She was already getting a bit tired and it might be best for them to just go to sleep rather than attempt to be night owls. "Alright then, let's pack up our stuff and head below deck." She after hastily putting everything back in her bag and hoisting it over her shoulder, Sara flicked on her flashlight and made her way below deck. The interior of the ship was almost pitch black now that nighttime has fallen, given that the only thing keeping it lit was sunlight from the outside.

Sara didn't know too much about the layout of ships, but typically the areas that contained beds were the crew rooms, which were normally located near the galley of a ship. However, she knew where neither of those things were. She checked all the rooms nearby the staircase up to the deck with her flashlight, finding little to nothing inside of them. Evidently the crew quarters were somewhere else in the freighter, and they were likely to not find them quickly now that night has fallen. "I guess this place is as good as any to set up some bedding."

She placed her bag on the ground and pulled out her extra clothes. She placed her clothes on the floor in a makeshift bedspread and placed her bag at the end as a sort of lumpy pillow, per Sean's suggestion. Sara rubbed her eyes as she lied down on her clothing bedspread and placed her head on her bag. It wasn't exactly comfortable, and she was rather cold, but it was better than having nothing between her and the cold metal floor of the ship.

As she lied there, her eyelids got heavier and heavier until they shut entirely and she fell asleep for the night...

Giant Mecha battle!
MurderWeasel
Jul 19 2013, 09:15 PM
Just wanted to say I'm super flattered by my inclusion. :)
^^^

(shooting missiles pew pew)

Setting Up Base Camp
Maddie sat chewing on the power bar, the deafening silence of the household becoming more and more noticeable as time passed. Then there was a knock on the door. In an instant Maddie was out of the chair, pointing the gun-knife at the door. She waited for a moment, tense, but no one came in. She lowered the gun-knife. She had reacted without thinking. She probably would have shot whoever knocked on the door if they had come in, and that scared her. What has she become? Has this island really changed her so much in such a short amount of time? Changed her to where she would kill without thinking just to possibly preserve her own life?

She shook her head. She needed to stay calm and think of the present. She walked over to the door. There were a few possibilities as to why someone would knock on the door, but ultimately they all lead back to the same reasoning, they want to check if anyone is inside. The question was, does she reveal herself? She could either reveal herself to the person and permit them inside, or she could hide and make them think the house is deserted, and then attack them when the least expect it. If she revealed herself and the person was violent, she could potentially die. If she didn't reveal herself and the person was innocent, she ran the risk of potentially killing an innocent person out of a sense of self-preservation.

So it's a choice of risking her life or another person's life.

Rule Three: Do not do anything that could lead to your immediate demise.

...

Fuck that.

She opened the door. No one was out there. Figures someone who would knock on the door wouldn't be stupid enough to just stand right in front of it. "Alright. Whoever's out there... come on out. I'm not going to hurt you unless you try to hurt me." As a precaution, she kept the gun-knife at her side, but lowered non-threateningly. Just because she was willing to give this person a chance doesn't mean she is about to trust them not to try and kill her.

Setting Up Base Camp
Maddie didn't quite know where to start searching in the house, but she figured the kitchen might be as good an area as any to try and find anything useful. There were several sets of cabinets in the kitchen, along with an oven, and they were hopefully hiding things that she could possibly use. She walked over and opened one of the cabinets.

Empty.

She opened another.

Empty again.

She opened another.

Empty yet again.

She kept opening cabinets, trying to find anything at all inside of them, but she found nothing. The terrorists must have cleaned the place out beforehand. Figures that they couldn't let anyone get an advantage by just happening upon things. They needed to keep their game as unfair as it already was. Heaven forbid one of their victims ended up evening the playing field. She kept searching, however, as she was not about to just give up. She opened up the kitchen's oven. Empty as well. She flipped open a pantry door. Empty, just like the rest of the house. She sighed. Perhaps her efforts were fruitless and she really should give up. After all, how could an organization as far reaching and powerful as the terrorists miss anything that could potentially be useful to the students?

She slumped down next to one of the kitchen walls and sat in silence for a few minutes in an attempt to keep control of her frustration and anger at the terrorists. It was hard not to get angry at them. They all sickened her. It was their fault that her and all her friends at Aurora wound up in this situation, and no matter what happens on this island, no matter who dies, no matter who kills, the blood is ultimately on their hands. And they likely don't even care. To think that people exist who would willingly kill hundreds of kids with no remorse was hard for her to fathom.

She just now noticed that she was hungry. She walked into the dining room and sat down at the table. She pulled out one of her power bars and started eating the dry, bitter tasting bar, doing her best not to gag. It was hard to keep her sanity on this island, considering all that had happened, stealing a weapon, witnessing a murder, running for her life. It was all really hard to handle, but she somehow kept going.

She sighed, continuing to nibble on the bar for quite some time.

The General SOTF Discussion Thread
So, getting off of the current topic, I wanted to ask a few questions of all the veterans around here.

Do you think, so far, that V5 is an improvement upon V4 in both the writing quality and just in general?

If yes, how so? What has V5 improved on?

Finally, what patterns have you noticed so far in V5 that are problematic (such as V4's private threads or WACKY formatting)?

I'm really interested in hearing people's thoughts and hopefully this will promote some interesting discussion. :)

Avast, ye hearties!
Sean didn't seem to agree with her that the boy could be some sort of help. Sara was a bit disappointed, as she thought that having an extra pair of hands would be a great help to their overall survival, but perhaps Sean was right. But, just as she started to agree with his decision, Sean called down to the boy and told him that he could come on up.

Before Sara could really react, the boy was up on the deck in no time flat, already telling her that his name was Aria and asking her what her name was in return. He sounded just as nervous as she usually was, with a very noticeable stutter in his speech. "Well... um... my name is Sara." She was unsure of anything else to say to Aria, she was never the best at making conversation back in Aurora, especially with people she didn't know, but admittedly she barely knew anyone. Sean was one of the few exceptions, and she was still quite glad she found him so quickly.

She addressed Aria. "So, um, anyway, welcome aboard. I am first mate Sara and this..." She gestured at Sean. "...is Captain Mulcahy." Sara was getting quite into the whole pirate thing. She didn't really know why, she was usually more serious than this, but it was keeping her from being overcome by the stress of the situation, so she didn't question it. She continued. "To bring you up to speed, our captain is going to decide what you will be doing aboard the ship, he is much more experienced than me at being a pirate, so I am certain that he will know exactly what you should do as a member of our crew." She realized that she might be putting a lot of pressure on Sean, but she didn't really know herself what Aria should do and she was quite confident that Sean had already figured out what Aria should do long before he invited Aria aboard.

Setting Up Base Camp
Maddie didn't know when she stopped crying. She just knew it was late. It was extremely dark inside the farmhouse. Almost impossible to see, but faint moonlight filtered in through the window. Her eyelids felt heavy, and she was already incredibly exhausted after the events of today, what with all the walking and running and nearly being killed. Her head lazily rested on the pillow she was just crying into, and her eyelids felt heavier and heavier...



Maddie awoke to sunlight peering in through the window and hitting her eyes. She groggily got up out of the bed. She didn't sleep well, not at all. Her dreams were filled with the images of gory death. Images of her friends, of all the people she got to know over the course of her stay at Aurora, dying brutally. She shivered. She didn't want anyone to die, if she could she would do her best to make sure no one had to. But that was impossible. The only way to ensure that no one has to die is to escape, and there is no way for her, for anyone, to do so. How were they supposed to outsmart MIT graduates? How were they supposed to get in contact with someone on the outside and then have them come to rescue them? Most importantly, how were they supposed to get these damn collars off?

And... if they didn't escape... only one kid was getting off of the island alive. How could she possibly manage to be that one kid? And if she somehow did manage, how could she live with being the only survivor? She lied back down on the bed, and began to sob once again under the crushing hopelessness of the situation. She was going to die, and everyone she loved was going to die with her. And there was nothing she could do about it.

Her crying, however, was interrupted by the sound of announcements. She quickly pulled herself together. She needed to focus, if only for a minute or two. She couldn't let her emotions control her when she needed to stay sharp. She listened intently to the announcements. She took a tally of those who killed, those who died, and the areas that were danger zones.

When the announcements ceased, she listed off those who killed people back to herself, doing her best to keep in control of her emotions.

"Theodore Fletcher."

Theo... she didn't know Theo. She had seen him around school, but if you showed her a picture of him she would likely not know who he was. Regardless, he killed two people, so he has likely gone way off the deep end by now. Definitely someone to avoid.

"Hansel Williams."

Hansel... she knew Hansel. She didn't know if he knew her, but she knew him. He was a stubborn and hateful when it came to anyone that was a gender or sexual minority in Aurora, and she was glad for a long time that she wasn't out at Aurora, if only to avoid people like him and their toxicity.

"Joe Carrasco."

She had no idea who Joe Carrasco was, being honest with herself. She took a mental note of his name though, and if she ended up meeting him she knew to avoid him.

"Katarina Konipaski."

She didn't know much about Katarina, she just knew who Katarina was, mostly due to Katarina's unusual name causing her to stay in Maddie's memory. Evidently she also got the best kill, and is likely to be ever more armed. Someone to avoid, definitely.

"Iselle Ovalle-Vandermeer."

Just like Joe, she didn't really know who Iselle was. Just another person that never really got her notice during her time at Aurora. Regardless, she killed someone, and it shouldn't be too hard to remember that mouthful of a name.

Now, the people who died. "David Russell, Gabriella Parker, Daniel Whitten, Dan Liu, Jason Meyers, Kelly Peterson, David Zimmer, and Sven Olsen. You will all be remembered." She said, sullenly. She refused to really let the thought that they were all dead and gone forever get to her, if she focused too much on that then she would break down, likely even more than she already had. She needed to keep moving forward, to keep trying to survive.

Speaking of surviving, the dangerzones were the amusement park, the airstrip, and the hotel. So she needed to avoid the hell out of those areas, although it may be less pertinent to remember those, as her collar would start beeping if she got too close. She grabbed her gun-knife and her other things, in case she needed to make a hasty getaway. As for now, it was time to search this house for anything she might be able to use.

Bayview Brigade
I remember Ricky saying they ship the bodies home, but I'm not sure if he was saying that was canon or his own personal head-canon.

(Personally, at the very least I want to keep that as my head-canon just because the other options are darker...)

New League of Legends Thread
TortueTyran, level 20, CHALLENGER RANK unranked obviously

Setting Up Base Camp
((Madeline Wilcox continued from A New World Fool))

It had taken about an hour of walking, but Maddie had finally arrived at the homestead. She looked up at the sky, it was a reddish orange tinge, so evidently the sun was setting right about now, although she could only barely see the sun through the trees that surrounded this farm area. She looked around for a building to stay in. There was a greenhouse at the far end, a dilapidated looking barn a little bit closer to her, and what appeared to be an old farmhouse nearest to her. She decided that, of all three places to stay, the farmhouse would probably be the most comfortable and might have things she could use inside.

She walked the short distance to the farmhouse, and pressed her ear up against the front door. Silence. There appeared to be no one inside. She placed a musket ball inside the gun-knife, just to be safe. She gently opened the door as it made a faint creaking sound. It was dimly lit inside the farmhouse. The only light came from the sunlight coming in through the windows, which was getting dimmer by the moment. She quietly made her way through dining area and living room, noticing nothing of interest in the dim light. She quietly made her way upstairs to the second floor, the stairs creaking as she went up. The first door she came to led to a small bedroom with a twin sized bed and a desk.

Despite that room being comfortable enough for her, she needed to check every room before she settled down anywhere, there could easily be another person in the house. She kept walking past the room, to the second, and last, room on the floor. Peering inside, she saw that it was empty, just like the rest of the house, but this room was bigger than the last, having a bookcase, an armoire, and a master sized bed. Now this, this was a place she could stay. She placed her bag down on the bed, carrying it around all day was rather taxing. She let her spear lean up against the wall, but kept her gun-knife by her side. She couldn't afford to have anyone come in and catch her off guard.

She sat down on the bed. What a day it had been. Already people were going crazy and turning on their fellow person, doing anything just to get another precious few seconds of life.

She looked at the gun-knife, the weapon she had stolen from Nina.

Including me.

She quieted that thought. She wasn't actively trying to kill anyone, she was far too nice to do anything like that, so that made her a good guy, right?

Right?

She wasn't sure. Looking from Nina's perspective, Maddie could be just as monstrous as those who are killing.

Did she want that? Did she want others to think of her as a monster? Of course not. But, she had to survive. She had to. But... what for? Why did she deserve to live more than anyone else on the island? She didn't really. She imagined that everyone on this island deserved to live just as much as her, and it was selfish of her to think otherwise. She clutched her head. Dread filled her insides. Was it really wrong for her to do all of this? To act selfishly in an effort to live, even without trying to kill anyone? She lied herself down on the bed. She wondered if her parents were watching what she was doing, if they were ashamed of her and what she has done.

The stress of this entire situation finally had caught up with her. She covered her head with one of the bed's pillows and cried into it. She needed to let all the stress out somehow, and crying was the best way for her to do so. She cried on and off for some time, she didn't know how long, it could have been minutes, or even hours, she wouldn't have known. She just kept quietly crying as time slowly passed and the sun slipped down just beneath the horizon once again...