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Aperture Science Mafia.
Flare
Mar 30 2017, 04:33 PM
Scum generally needs 50% of the remaining players to win, since any lynch needs 50%+1 to go through, so if scum is 50% of the game they can just buckle down and refuse to lynch any scum and mathematically there's no way around it.
We're in a game with multiple vig and kill opportunities though, so as long as one of those is a game option it seems like 50% scum shouldn't be an automatic win.

Aperture Science Mafia.
I don't have anything else at this point.

Aperture Science Mafia.
Zetsumodernista
Mar 30 2017, 02:49 PM
Does scum need to hold a 50% + 1 to win? Win condition is usually either control 50% of the votes, or control 50% of the votes and town lacks any way to even it up (i.e. no vig).

If scum need 50% + 1, then yeah, you're right. If not, though, assuming 2 scum we're at LyLo tomorrow regardless of modkill, assuming 3 scum we're at LyLo today regardless of modkill.
...I legit can't remember. For some reason I thought scum doesn't automatically win unless scum has full majority control, IE 50%+1. But now you're making me doubt that's the case and I dunno if that's like, a good scum move or I'm just off my nut here. I thought it was 50%+1 because even if Scum can stall a vote, in this set-up there might be other opportunity to get kills via picking up vigs and such.

Aperture Science Mafia.
Zetsumodernista
Mar 30 2017, 02:29 PM
What?

No Modkill. 2 scum, assuming everything goes wrong:

8 left today. Mislynch. NK. 6 remaining after nightphase. Mislynch. NK. 4 Remaining after night phase. 2 scum would control 50% of the scum vote, scum victory. That means LyLo tomorrow, 2 phases to catch scum counting this phase.

I'm really fucking tired right now, but I'm pretty sure my math checks out.
That math does check out. What you asserted earlier is that if we inserted the modkill into that order it wouldn't bring us to LyLo any faster, which is wrong. Instead of going to 6 we go to 5(where 3 scum automatically win) and instead of going to 4 we go to 3(where two scum automatically win).

Aperture Science Mafia.
You just described where your math is wrong. You said modkill or not we're at LyLo tomorrow, whereas in actuality without a mod kill and with two scum we're not at LyLo for another two phases assuming we hit no scum. You're saying that the modkill doesn't change when we hit LyLo when it very, very much does. Even one extra kill drops us down from three phases(counting this one) to catch scum to two. It's entirely possible you're just wrong, but if Decoy flips town then it's looks really obvious that you're scum trying to slim down the number of phases we have to catch people out.

Aperture Science Mafia.
Zetsumodernista
Mar 30 2017, 05:44 AM
Decoy flips town. Lynch flips town. Scum NK's town. No vig. We're at LyLo next day phase, but we already would've been even without the modkill.

This in particular is very wrong. With no modkill and two more town deaths on 2 scum, we're at 6 alive and four to lynch. Assuming another missed lynch with no successful scum actions means we're at four alive and 3 to lynch. Without any extra kills we have two phases before game over. With even one extra town kill though, we only have one.

Look at this real, real hard if Decoy flips town. This is exactly the sort of logic scum uses to lead town along to bad ideas that bite them in the ass.

Aperture Science Mafia.
Gotta say I'm really, really not a fan of Zetsu's constant push to thin us out. He's wrong about killing Decoy not hurting us unless we're guaranteed only two remaining scum. One modkill, one lynch, and one kill would put us at 5 people remaining, meaning that a scumteam of three would automatically win without a missed vig shot required.

This scumtells in two possible ways: either Zetsu is trying to talk us away from the idea that scum could have that many players left and get us in a comfort zone where we're good just burning lynches, or Zetsu knows there's only two scum left and he's letting that influence his arguments subconsciously.

Decoy is looking like our best option here. Decoy flipping town looks really, really bad for Zetsu and pretty good for Brackie. Zetsu looking bad makes Boogie look...betterish...at least, and Brackie looking good gives us a better vibe on me thanks to the cop read. On the flipside, Decoy flipping scum looks preeeeetty good for Zetsu and not so great for Brackie, with the obvious results for Boogie and me. If we just have a kill and a lynch, then tomorrow we're at 6 with four to lynch. Unless someone picked up a vig and that vig shoots town, we'll be at LyLo even if Decoy's town and there are three scum left. We can damn near guarantee Zetsu's alignment at that point.

The other option is that we lynch Zetsu today, but like, I don't like that as much because nobody's really defending him? If Zetsu's scum, his scum buddies have straight up abandoned him since everybody's staring at him thinking he's sus as fuck. So if he flips scum now, where do we go from there, and if he flips town then who do we suspect when like, half the game at any given time has been eyeballing him?

Aperture Science Mafia.
Zetsumodernista
Mar 29 2017, 11:29 PM
@Paige: What're you townreading Flare for?
Strong D1 play, good game engagement/questions/analysis, and just immediately handing me Vote of Trust Night One. It seems like the latter especially would not be a good scum move.

Aperture Science Mafia.
In the interest of disclosure I've been townreading Flare hard all game and it's entirely possible the dude is playing me, I'd appreciate fresher unbiased eyes on him in case I'm missing something.

Aperture Science Mafia.
Oh weird, for some reason I was thinking there were seven of us and it was four to lynch, clearly Mama needs more caffeine.

Aperture Science Mafia.
I mean, at this point I guess why not. It's not like we're talking about anything anyway XD

I'm way less confident that we can dodge one scum vote than that we can dodge two, but like, the risk isn't huge here so if you're inclined to vote just so we're in a good spot to hammer sure.

Aperture Science Mafia.
Vote: Decoy

I'm gonna go ahead and risk it on this one. Right now my primary scum leads are Decoy, Zetsu, and Boogie. Boogie's already voting and Decoy's not going to be hammering himself. Unless I'm getting completely blindsided here I don't think scum is going to double hammer and end the day phase early.

Aperture Science Mafia.
I'll say it's a plausible read. The "microsurgery with a hand grenade" tell doesn't ring any bells to me but when he says that I get like, a vague ping of "oh yeah, hasn't he said that before?" The flip side to that is that if Brackie is so intimately familiar with Decoy's mafia play to know a half a decade long tell like that, it's also something they could have easily talked about night one. I.E. "Hey, I've noticed literally every time you're town you say this one specific thing. Say that one specific thing in the morning, it'll pay off later."

Aperture Science Mafia.
Zetsumodernista
Mar 29 2017, 12:14 AM
Hmm, that's strange. While a decoy flip would definitely give info on Brackie, I'm not sure I'll hard scumread him if decoy flips scum. Hard-defending scum when you're scum is pretty damn risky, even if you're sure you can muck things up with WIFOM after your scumbuddy flips.
It's pretty common for scum this close to victory. If they just need two more mislynches, for instance, then taking a hard stand against lynching a scum partner when there's a lot of good town options on the table makes pretty good statistical sense. I've done it in games before(Probably most notably in Buffy where it ended up costing us the game), and this is about as good a position as I'd expect from it. Especially if there really are only two scum members left, it'd be crazy to let your only remaining buddy get bussed with no defense.

Aperture Science Mafia.
Yeah, sorry, I've been at work all day. Brackie's strong defense of Decoy actually makes me more interested in seeing him lynched, because if Decoy flips scum that really, really doesn't look good on Brackie's end.

The thing about Decoy being modkilled is that he's shown in both of the last few phases that he's good at slipping in the activity he needs right under the wire, even if it didn't quite work day one. I don't think we should rely on Decoy catching a modkill at this point to deal with him after re-examining his post history.

Aperture Science Mafia.
I'm still in favor of Zetsu because while I can at least town rationalize what Boogie did even if I don't like it, I'm having a really hard time rationalizing Zetsu's focus on "discussion" over commitment.

No really, go back and look at every phase. Zetsu has never been involved with any significant lynch train. He votes for me and Yugi Day One and votes for Murder Day Two, completely avoiding both the Random and Naft lynches. In the eleventh hour of both lynches he's around talking about wanting to get more discussion, just like he has this phase, but he never puts himself in a committed position against anyone who hasn't already pressured him at some point in the game. Worth noting: Boogie has been present on both lynches. He could very easily be skating scum, but I trust someone who throws in on the lynches a lot more than someone who seems to be consistently trying to ease attention away from them and stall out the phase.

Decoy feels like a safe option because if Decoy flips town I feel like that should be our last straw on lynching Zetsu, and in the event that this really is just a game full of quiet scum who are letting us tear each other apart then I feel comfortable trusting Zetsu on a Decoy scum flip. Whereas Zetsu flipping town doesn't really tell us much since the general opinion seems to be that he's sus as fuck at this point. Same story with Boogie, I don't feel like we actually learn anything from his lynch, so we need to be really sure that he or Zetsu is scum before we lynch. I dunno, maybe I'm overthinking it, I just don't want us to mislynch again and wind up with no leads next phase.

crushcrushcrush
Oh.

Oh.

This was fine.

Caedyn was okay with the events that were currently unfolding.

It was okay, things were going to be okay.

So Jazzy had decided to wait until they were in the middle of a murder island to drop the L word. Cool. That was neat. Just, really, really neat. Spiffy even. Radical. Other positive verbs. Yep. Yep yep yep. That sure was a good thing that was happening and she definitely didn't want to burrow through the wall so she didn't have to deal with it. That was fucked up, right? Like, she could hold a gun on Jae and walk away knowing he might plug her in the back and still be pretty much okay, but one little word from her girlfriend was enough to make her wanna panic? Jah, what did that say about her? No, no, no. Not the time for that rabbit hole. This needed to be handled, and there...weren't a lot of options. Except for her old favorite.

Caedyn curled around Jazzy tight and cradled her head against her neck. "I love you too," she whispered as her fingers played through her hair. It wasn't exactly a lie. Maybe it was even as close to the truth as she'd get. Jazzy was different, yeah? She felt differently about her, yeah? So it could be "love." It wasn't like she'd "loved" anyone before and could tell a real difference. It also wasn't like they had to worry about any of the practical concerns that came with that. One of them wasn't getting out of here. They had what, maybe a handful of days left with each other at this point?

Fuck it. Caedyn loved her. That was a thing now. Why not?

"Yeah," she whispered again, "I love you Jazzy..." With a smile on her lips she tilted Jasmine's face up from her neck and caught her with another kiss. At this rate, they might be here like this for awhile.

If she were thinking more practically she might have regretted that they didn't block the door or anything. Unfortunately, Caedyn's mind wasn't anywhere near practical at the moment.

((Caedyn Miller Continued In Love Runs Out))

Accept Our Ring and Join Our Fight
((Ty Yazzie Continued From With Blood and Rage of Crimson Red, Ripped From A Corpse So Freshly Dead))

Mom always used to talk about how you knew you were with the right people when you could sit and talk for hours without ever saying a word. As a kid he always figured it was an excuse to try and make him not feel guilty for being quiet when they gardened. As he got older he figured it was a little more than that; a kinda coping mechanism for the life she'd wound up in. The old man was usually pretty quiet himself. So was damn near everyone else in the house. Beans and Elan were the chatty ones, and it wasn't long before even they either weren't around or were busy most of the time. So maybe it wasn't to make him feel better. Maybe it was just to make her feel better about all the silence.

Then he met Bee, and it all clicked.

It wasn't some fairy tale moment of fate bullshit. Hell, at first it wasn't even nice. They just hated each other almost as soon as they met. They both had their reputations, and he was...no way around it, he was an asshole. God they fought back then, even when they weren't yelling each other. Their body language just seemed to transform around each other. Damndest thing was, that's why he noticed her that day in the hall. Bent over, alone, struggling down even though she didn't seem real sure where she was going. It was the first time her body wasn't bristling with anger just from being around him, and when he called out to her he saw it start to rise up only to crumble back down. That's when he knew something was real, real wrong.

"Couldn't ignore that. I... needed to make sure you were alright. That's all."

She told him so much every goddamn day since without opening her mouth. Where she wanted to go. What was on her mind. When she was hurting. When he needed to settle the hell down. How much she loved him. It all came in words too, sure, but half the time they didn't need them. Not really. It was just nice to press together and feel the way they sank into each other as they whispered "I love you."

Her body was still against the cliffside now. She'd always been so active in a thousand tiny ways when she was up and about. Even when she slept she was never perfectly still like that. More than anything else, that told him that she was really gone. Yet in a weird kinda way, he could still hear her. He could sit there on the ground staring at her body for what felt like hours to him, and he never said a goddamn word, but they talked the whole time. On and on about home, or their future, or this place. They talked most about how the fuck he was supposed to keep going. Why he shouldn't climb the fence looming over them, cut his ass to ribbons, and drop over just to get it all over with.

Of course he wasn't gonna do it. Ty never took the easy way out before, and he wasn't about to start now. There might not be anything for him here. There might not even be anything for him left back home. But there were people that needed him still. Mom, Dad, Atsa, hell even Marcus were all counting on him to get his shit together.

He knew that.

He just needed to hear her say it.

The thing that haunted him was how he was gonna face her parents. Deep down, there'd always been this fear that he'd never be good enough for them. That somehow, some way, he was gonna fail their daughter and prove the doubt they had to have about him right. Here it was, almost like destiny: the worst goddamn way he could possibly fail. There was no changing that, no matter how many times he felt that comforting presence on his shoulder. He couldn't bring her back. That didn't mean he couldn't do better, though.

Keith would see him coming with Bee's stiff, decaying body held tight in his arms and a proud, defiant look frozen on his face to try and hold back more tears. It wasn't working. He could fool himself for a spell, though. "I'm takin' her down to the beach," he said flatly. There was no way in hell he was leaving her out here like this, and that was the only place he could imagine to give her something approaching a proper burial.

--------

There's a long mound left in the cove below. Buried at its head is a cluster of stones, and right in the middle of them is a pair of small plastic rings. One blue, one violet. They're wrapped together in a long, silver chain. Somebody put a lot of work into getting it all looped and kinked up around them to the point that trying to get them apart would be a real trick. If someone managed that...

Well. Probably best if they slept with one eye open for awhile.

((Ty Yazzie Continued In Topic Title))

Aperture Science Mafia.
Hi Naft!

Bye Naft!

[Repeat x7]

Aperture Science Mafia.
Zetsumodernista
Mar 26 2017, 07:05 PM
I assume you mean 3 members of scum left? If there were 4, then that would mean a 5/15 scum team, which is flat-out ridonkulous.
Doy, yeah, that's what I meant >.< Got wires crossed.