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National Novel Writing Month 2013
I kinda want to do this but I'm also already writing all the things for school. So I'mma give it a shot and fail horribly.

Buffy Mafia Sign-Ups
Innnnnn!

I know nothing about Buffy except scattered bits without context, but Mafia. No questions asked.

Community Mafia: Fallout Thread
Yeah, I figured I was pretty much fucked as the SK from day one since I didn't have investigation or NK immunity. So I just tried to cause as much vaguely pro-town havoc as possible and not kill any of the mafia. I feel that this strategy worked about as well as I expected it to.

POST RESTRICTION MAFIA - GAME THREAD
I like the uncertainty and legwork that goes into figuring out what kind of cop you are. Naive and paranoid cops are pretty bastard roles that I can only see being used in very specific contexts and probably in combination with other roles for flavor purposes, but I think the possibility of it encourages good play, as long as the game master supplies a known "check" entity like a miller, which Namira did.

That being said, the Vig/Miller combination kind of threw me. Not in a bad way, but that was one weird-ass role claim that I wasn't expecting to come true at all. If I hadn't been part of the mafia, I would have fingered PA for an unprotected SK and lynched on that even with the kill confirmation.

Community Mafia: Game Thread
Posted Image


My only regret is that I didn't kill Naft.

Community Mafia: Game Thread
EBWOP: I didn't mean to quote that first wall, whoops!

Community Mafia: Game Thread
VysePresident
Oct 12 2013, 12:14 AM
POP! POP!

Hey, everyone's favorite one-man party is back, and wondering why the interesting stuff always happens when he has trouble getting on.

I believe Grim's claim 100%, and Doc has just rocketed to the top of my scum reads. My vote stays on Ciel, as I'd rather go for an inactive than Grim at this point.

In short, if this claim is legitimate, as I fully expect it to be, Grim's just set himself up as a major target for the mafia - two townies for the price of one is a pretty serious advantage for them, especially as town lovers are occasionally (Read "Use and Power") tied to a valuable role. Furthermore, as I've mentioned before, much of Grim's arguably 'scummy' behavior fits the mold of a slightly clumsy, cautious attempt at play.

Now, suppose either he or his partner is scum - who do you think we'll be looking at, should he survive a few days? Time works to our advantage here, not the mafia's, and we'd be stupid to risk saving them a nightkill. If we were nearing Lylo, I'd be concerned, but I don't see that as being a remotely realistic possibility. We most likely have 3-5 mafias members, depending on third parties and other balancing issues. We can afford to wait on Grim.

Doc's push is particularly suspicious in that light. He's treating Grim as if he were somehow an urgent target, and blatantly ignoring even the possibility of waiting. It reminds me a lot of how Murder got Laurels lynched, actually - Heck, Doc is even using the same point about 'soft bragging' here. Given that he was part of that game's mafia, I think the connection isn't unreasonable. It seems very much like he was hoping to get Grim lynched in the panic of the approaching deadline, when just a few votes could have sealed the deal, before it could really be discussed.

Finally, he's been focused heavily on flavor-hunting (here amd here for just two examples), which is particularly suspect, given that Dom said there'd be nothing in the flavor. (Vyse, meet hypocrisy. Hypocrisy, meet Vyse. Yes, I get it. Nonetheless, the point stands)

As a side note, I feel it's worth pointing out that he's the one who got momentum going again on the Grim bandwagon, here. In and of itself, the post isn't particularly suspicious, but it is moderately interesting in the larger picture.

Actually, on second thought, there is one part of that quote that I'd like to point out.

DocBalance
 
Alright, since we're beyond the 24 hour mark, I'm thinking it's time to start pushing one of these wagons. It's hard to choose which one. I don't like that Ciel is basically saying nothing, but to paraphrase Mark Twain it's better to keep one's mouth shut and appear to be scum than open one's mouth and confirm it. Grim's demeanor has been over-all more desperate and scummy, and even though my gut says this one is going to get turned around on us, I'm going to go ahead and Vote: Grim Wolf.


Translation - "Totally not distancing myself from this lynch or anything."



Incidentally, my current reads are:

Doc - Scummy. From top townread to top scumread. He's taking a lot of actions that remind me of his playstyle in PR, where he constantly attempted to pressure us into making bad decisions. He's focusing solely on making a case for lynching Grim now, at all costs, and his heavy use of flavor just makes it that much worse.

Penguin - Leaning Town; I'm actually more comfortable with this one than before, thanks to how she's handled this incident.

NAFT - Leans Town. He's generally been showing signs of seriously hunting for scum, and given my thoughts, I feel that listening to Grim's claim is a plus.

Percy - Mildly uncomfortable. He needs to contribute a lot more, as he tried to fly under the radar in the last game, and appears to be doing so now.

Dmboogie - Uncomfortable. Same reasoning as Percy.
Quote:
 
Doc's push is particularly suspicious in that light. He's treating Grim as if he were somehow an urgent target, and blatantly ignoring even the possibility of waiting.


I'm not really sure what you mean by this. I don't acknowledge the possibility of waiting as in letting him pass through this lynch? Not particularly, given that I don't see a whole lot of reason to until I completely redacted my vote in the face of a back-up claim. You seem to be skimming over my reasoning that this claim was completely fake.

Quote:
 
Finally, he's been focused heavily on flavor-hunting (here amd here for just two examples), which is particularly suspect, given that Dom said there'd be nothing in the flavor. (Vyse, meet hypocrisy. Hypocrisy, meet Vyse. Yes, I get it. Nonetheless, the point stands)


To be fair, I 1). Completely missed this, and 2). It doesn't appear to just be fluff given our serial killer confirmation?

Moreso, flavor isn't even close to the main component of my argument. That was mostly just idle discussion since Persy brought up the fact that Vicky seems like she'd be town-aligned. I was merely challenging that point.

The main point of my argument was the mathematics, something that was never really responded to. The only thing that swings me from it is the fact that it's at least reasonably certain at this point that Grim's telling the truth about being a lover.

Quote:
 
Translation - "Totally not distancing myself from this lynch or anything."


Before he claimed, I was distancing myself from it because I didn't want to do it. As I mentioned, I was only going for it because Grim and Ciel are our two best leads, and we need a lynch. So yes, I completely agree that pre-claim I didn't want to be associated with the Grim lynch out of anything but necessity anymore than I wanted to be associated with the Skraal lynch yesterday.

I'd like to hear why, before Decoy's claim, lynching Grim was a bad idea in context of the mathematics. Otherwise, I'm going to have a hard time buying your argument.

Community Mafia: Game Thread
decoy73
Oct 11 2013, 11:59 PM
DocBalance
 
Yeah, this is kind of a big issue. Grim continues to only consider the absolute worst possibility for his lynch, even though it's far from the most likely scenario. The only time I can think of where there was a two-town lover play was in V4 mafia, and that didn't go over so well in that it was pretty much universally hated IIRC.

Yeah, that was my bad. But back on topic, Grim is telling the truth. He is Fat Neil, I am Vicki Jenkins, and so far as I know, we are both Town-aligned Lovers (my Role PM had "Lovers" in green, which leads me to believe he is also Town). He leaves, I leave.

To that note, I

VOTE: CIEL

FOS: ZABRIEL

And now my "on notice" becomes official.

PS - I do have to give props to Skraal. She's only the second Jester to pull a win.
...hmmm. I've been waiting for this. I didn't mention it because I didn't want to give any other scum a free out, but yep, this is what I've been wanting.

I'm not completely convinced, but now we're to the point that I'm at least reasonably certain he's not lying. That levels us to a 1/1 shot, and our positive outcome losing a townie with scum. Ciel's now mathematically our best pick.

Unvote: Grim Wolf

Vote: Ciel

Community Mafia: Game Thread
penguin_alien
Oct 11 2013, 11:01 PM
OK, here's my question: Grim Wolf claims he's town and that he's linked to a townie. So to his way of thinking, he's absolutely the worst lynch choice. Yet he's not even considering Ciel that I can see. Since, let's face it, at less than 24 hours to deadline we're going to be hard-pressed to get a third wagon even if we wanted one. Making a Ciel lynch his best option for him not dying.
Yeah, this is kind of a big issue. Grim continues to only consider the absolute worst possibility for his lynch, even though it's far from the most likely scenario. The only time I can think of where there was a two-town lover play was in V4 mafia, and that didn't go over so well in that it was pretty much universally hated IIRC.

Moreso, the way Grim keeps framing this smells like an appeal to deterrence for me. See, lover could be a really safe claim for a particularly desperate scum since there's really no way to test it other than killing them. They're not claiming a common power role that can be counter-claimed, and if they manage to survive there's no way for them to verify or deny their role in the night phase, so they're not guaranteed to be lynched for failing to deliver. However, there's still danger to losing them if they claim their second lover is town. It's so insubstantial though, because we won't be able to tell for sure until one of them dies. That's a big reason why I'm skeptical of this claim to start with, and I want to stress that he could still very well be scum making a fake claim.

Throw in the fact that it's very, very likely given how the balance of this game seems to be weighted that we're going to get scum for our troubles, and this becomes a slam-dunk lynch to me. Even in the worst case scenario where we have town-aligned lovers they're likely going to be dead by tonight anyway, so we're still taking a pretty big gamble if we go for Ciel. If it gets down to the wire and Ciel is closer to the hammer than Grim is, I'll swap for the sake of getting a lynch in. Until then, I really think Grim is our best option.

Community Mafia: Game Thread
You keep forgetting to add in the possibility that you're mafia. You're also treating a single townie and a single scum as an equal trade, which it isn't? In a game this size with 5 mafia, a single scum is worth roughly 4 town. The math isn't with you.

Community Mafia: Game Thread
EBWOP:
Quote:
 
Or by voting for someone who's actually mafia


Which you still could be. As it turns out, you can claim town and still be mafia :)

Community Mafia: Game Thread
EBWOP: I got all mixed up there, whoops!

If your lover is town and we don't lynch you, then the mafia kills you. We possibly lose three town with the lynch on Ciel, just like we do if we lynch you now.

If your lover is mafia and we don't lynch you, we lose our only real scum-lead right now. As it is, Ciel's inactivity really isn't a big tell.

Guys, town pushed inactive lynches a lot last game. It didn't work out. Never, ever lynch an inactive because they might be sci, when you could lynch an active because you're pretty sure they act like scum.

Community Mafia: Game Thread
Grim Wolf
Oct 11 2013, 09:08 PM
And if my lover isn't mafia? If you, in fact, kill two townies? I'm saying that my death is going to end in the deaths of two people one way or another, hence my being willing roleclaim at all. I've been stressing over and over that we can't afford to treat this day phase carelessly, because killing town will be a waste of a dayphase. And if my lover's town, you've doubled the waste.

If my lover is mafia, I doubt mafia will take the shot at me. But if she isn't, then we're doomed tonight either way. Look at this long-term. Don't waste what may be one of the last lynches that could still matter.
If your lover is town, and we don't kill you, then tonight the mafia kills you. We lose three townies, same as if we lynch you.

If your lover is mafia, and we don't kill you, then tonight the mafia doesn't kill you, and we give up our only lead for what may be two townie deaths with the lynch on Ciel.

Once again, the math is in our favor. Your death is inevitable if it's negative for the town. The only way we can get positive benefit from you now is to lynch you.

Community Mafia: Game Thread
Quote:
 
Doc, I'm actually getting a bit suspicious of your logic here. Vicky's role in Community has been pretty god damn neglible, and while I can't be sure that my lover isn't Mafia, I can be sure that there wasn't really an antagonistic study group? What are you reading? Where are you getting your information from?


The second study group? It had Annie Kim, and Vicky, and Buddy, I think? Am I seriously just imagining this? I thought they turned up in the episode where they found out they've been hogging the study room.

I know Vicky was in the U.N. group with Annie Kim though, and I know that they constantly make references to Vicky slighting the group, particularly Pierce. And there's the aforementioned biology episode. While Neil's the pawn, isn't it both Vicky's fault and idea since she was the one failing? I'm not saying it's cast-iron evidence against you, but assuming you are lovers, it seems likely logic for making one of you scum. We've had double-town lovers once before, if I recall correctly, and the role was universally despised as massively unbalancing. It seems really, really unlikely that that's the case.

Even assuming it has an equal chance, then yes, I'm willing to take that risk, because mathematically it suits us. This ignores the fact that I kind of think your claim is a lie, just because it doesn't make any sense for a lover to draw as much attention as you have.

Community Mafia: Game Thread
TurtleTyrant
Oct 11 2013, 08:20 PM
The problem with this logic is that there is no 100% way to tell that Grim is tied to a mafia member OR a townie. In this case he could /easily/ be tied to another townie, despite what the lore of Community states.
It's also not certain that Grim isn't just lying, if we're pointing out possibilities. I just want to give us three main possibilities:

1. Grim is lying and scum. We lynch scum. This is a net benefit for the town.
2. Grim is telling the truth and tied to scum. We lynch town, but we also lynch scum. This is numerically good for the town.
3. Grim is telling the truth and tied to town. This is a net negative for the town.

Now let's consider lynching Ciel.

1. Ciel is scum. We lynch scum. Net benefit for the town.
2. Ciel is town. We lynch town. This is a net negative for the town.

With Ciel, we've got a 1/1 shot at a positive outcome. With Grim, we've got a 2/1 shot at a positive outcome. Yes, it's high-risk high-reward, but that's the kind of play we need right now. Mathematically, it's just better for us.


Community Mafia: Game Thread
Un-Persona
Oct 11 2013, 07:58 PM
Usually, it's only if that Mafia Lover dies that the Town Lover dies, and not the other way around.

Nope.

Quote:
 
Lovers are players who are linked to each other. If one Lover dies, the Lover(s) linked to it die simultaneously.


The official role says nothing about it being one-way. So if we lynch Grim, I suspect we have a sure Mafia kill, unless this game is heavily stacked against the town.

Moreso, we have nothing to gain from a no-lynch. Splitting the wagon at this stage is bad. We really need to pick one and go for it, and right now the best evidence against Ciel is what he hasn't done. Grim is still a bigger target, especially now that we'll probably take scum with him.

Community Mafia: Game Thread
Un-Persona
Oct 11 2013, 07:54 PM
Well, I'm looking up the community wiki, and it does state that this Neil character is dating another named Vicki. Their personalities don't really fit being in the mafia from what I understand, so I'm willing to believe it.

As I just mentioned, Vicky was a member of the antagonistic study group and is pretty frequently mentioned as hating the main characters. Also, Neil and Vicky once sabotaged the biology class's projects so that they wouldn't fail. They're pretty far from being above reproach.

Community Mafia: Game Thread
...doesn't the lover typically take a member of the mafia with them?

And isn't Vicky, Neil's lover, part of the other study group with Annie Kim? That seems like a pretty likely mafia to me.

My vote stays.

Community Mafia: Game Thread
Alright, since we're beyond the 24 hour mark, I'm thinking it's time to start pushing one of these wagons. It's hard to choose which one. I don't like that Ciel is basically saying nothing, but to paraphrase Mark Twain it's better to keep one's mouth shut and appear to be scum than open one's mouth and confirm it. Grim's demeanor has been over-all more desperate and scummy, and even though my gut says this one is going to get turned around on us, I'm going to go ahead and Vote: Grim Wolf.

The Mafia Waiting List
Order of the Stick Mafia, 21-24, In Development.