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Let's Kill Chat Pimping!
I agree, by and large, with this message. I have my own feelings about chat pimping (they are very, very negative). V4 was pretty bad about it (I mean, okay, most versions have been. Check out the old RP Discussion threads from V2-3 for some great examples of this).

As I've mentioned in this lengthy treatise on getting far in the game, chat pimping is also bad for you. For people who don't want to read the whole thing, the relevant part is excerpted below. For people who still don't want to read it, it's spoilered. ;)

How To Go Far in SOTF: DO NOT talk up your own characters

Personally, I try not to mention my characters. I feel hideous when I do, especially because I've gotten far more than my share of attention already anyways. Last week in chat, we were talking villain writing philosophy and I couldn't call to mind any examples of a specific thing besides on I wrote and I mentioned that I was gonna use myself as an example and still couldn't actually talk myself into naming my own character.

That said, personally, I think a big thing to bear in mind is that there's a big difference between having friends who are legitimately interested and with whom you bounce scenes and ideas, and subjecting all of chat to that. Basically, if you have someone who wants to hear it, and if you're reciprocating, that's not a problem and I think is actually pretty cool. I had a cadre of about half a dozen folks whose ears I talked off in V4 (and vise versa). It's just separating that from general chat that's big, I think.

But yeah, basically, be aware, and be a team player. And people will bring your characters up (and it'll be super embarrassing if they say sweet things, and probably at some point somebody will). It's a lot more fun that way, 'cause it's genuine.

V5 Final Countdown and Character Application Deadlines
Whatever the latest one is. In all likelihood, we'll officially close stuff a few hours late anyways, since I don't think any staff will be up at the actual end.

>Guys, come on
>This isn't that hard
>Like, seriously
>Keeping it brief so people read

Okay, a few points: Deamon and decoy are my preferred targets.

Deamon's post restriction is not that he has to wait until targeted. He said he's been busy and has just happened to tune in when targeted.

Decoy bugs me for the reasons I mentioned >>above.

Rocky is super sketchy too, I agree there, Doc, and is one of my three, but lower in priority than Deamon and Decoy.

As to removing inactives for being inactive? Personally, I do not believe that is a great use of our lynches, especially since we now have an unkillable vigilante. Now, maybe the scum will block penguin. Maybe they'll kill Ricky and block her every single night. That said, we have a town roleblocker out there, trying to fish out either the hitman or the scum roleblocker, and eventually they'll land a hit, especially since they can narrow their options down now, having four nights of blocking under their belt (meaning up to four remaining players are confirmed to not be the roleblocker or the hitman, since both have been active the whole time as far as I recall).

Now, if Un is blocked, as we think he will be, and the kill goes through, that does clear him of being the hitman, but I'd like to remind everyone that it doesn't mean he's not scum. A lot of the suspicion on him is based on the idea he's the Curmudgeon, though, so at least that point will be settled.

I got off track here, but I was gonna say, penguin can prune the inactives without us wasting our day phases doing that. This is good for a few reasons: first, it lets us focus on actual scummy behavior during the day, and, second, it forces people to start contributing rather than waiting until they're on the spot to rush out some defense. There is no defense to a vig to the face.

And, for the record, I'm suspicious enough of Deamon that my vote there stands.

Also, while I am all for alternate theories, I also really want to see the primary topic discussed, because we don't want to run out of time and rush a lynch. That is always bad, because even when it nets us scum, it doesn't leave much of a trail.

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Be competent, everyone. Not like infomercial actors.

V5 Final Countdown and Character Application Deadlines
Reminder: less than three days for all applications that are not a first character.

Also, if you have a character currently in the queue, and they go over the two-week deadline after applications close, you will not be able to resubmit them unless they are your first character. Please make sure this doesn't happen.

Apr 27 2013, 08:55 AM
One thing to bare in mind with the whole Penguin nightkilling Dom plan is that what if the person that roleblocked Ricky blocks Penguin or Penguin just claims to be blocked to play for time. Maybe it's nothing too important but it should be considered especially since no roleblockers have claimed/died yet. Unless Ricky was lying about being role-blocked...which doesn't really make sense unless he was pretending to be a cop and that's incredibly unlikely.
Actually, this is sort of part of why my suspicions are still going, coupled with the fact that deflecting suspicion onto penguin is an odd move. While Doc had sort of weird reasons for being skeptical, here what I'm seeing is some ignoring of facts. Especially the fact that >>I already addressed this possibility.

Past Me (It's like Homestuck Mafia all over again!)
Also, if your kill does not go through, I'm inclined to believe you as well, if you're roleblocked. We'll know that happens because the second you get blocked, Ricky's dead, since scum can't afford a cop running around.

We know that the town roleblocker won't be massively dumb and block penguin. If the scum roleblocker changes targets, then Ricky will die during the night phase. We know this because scum can't afford a cop running around. If Ricky survives and penguin claims to have been blocked, then we just ask Ricky if he was blocked; if he was, then penguin is lying and we throw a lynching party.

Deamon's logic does not work for me. "Scum would have to be stupid to do this, therefore anyone who does this cannot be scum!" is a WIFOM at the best of times, but when combined with a decision that is neither unusual nor leaves us anything else to work on, I'm skeptical to believe it at all.

Also, as to Decoy:

I'm actually a lot more suspicious now that I reviewed my old posts, because he never actually addressed anything I said! It just got buried in the end-of-phase stuff. Decoy has made no votes since bandwagoning on Espional for no reason. He used my least favorite tool of all time, the finger of suspicion, to push the Laure wagon along without actually voting on it. And he casually dropped that he was roleblocked for no reason, which could be designed to imply he's a valuable townie.

Now, maybe he was roleblocked. Maybe this doesn't even mean he has a role; I've seen variants that included notification to anyone targeted. Mentioning it, however, tells us a few things, depending on its varacity.

If true:
1. The town's roleblocker thought Decoy was suspicious enough to shut him down last night
2. Decoy is not the mafia's killing roll

If false:
1. Decoy is probably scum
2. Decoy is trying to flush other roles

Basically, this claim, if untrue, could be a ploy to get the roleblocker to go, "What? I didn't block you!" or to get any actually blocked power role to chime in, since we all know who scum was blocking. I'd strongly suggest nobody claim over this unless they're really sure it's a good idea, because soft claims, especially unprovoked ones, worry me.

>Now I want to vote for Deamon AND Decoy
>TFW only one vote

Anyways, I'm not gonna be around for a lot of today, so here's something to keep everyone amused and using all that time that would be spent decoding walls of text in my absence.

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Apr 27 2013, 01:12 AM
Actually, I have to ask, can a roleblocker effect nightkill immunity?
>Typically, no
>The above sentence is a link, for the record
>Since a bunch of people missed it last time I did that

That said, scum can shut down her killing. Whether they will probably depends heavily on whether penguin is aiming at a townie or a mafia member, which is the one unfortunate thing about aiming kills, and why, after this first phase of confirmation which is more about checking a claim with a useless and very suspicious player as the most convenient way to prove stuff (and I'm gonna be honest, Dom just rubs me highly wrong and seems hellbent on not engaging enough to make a lynch meaningful, so I wanna see him gone anyways), I would honestly rather see penguin use her own judgement when picking kills rather than defer to the collective whims of the town; we've already got lynches for that style of landing kills.

On a side note, I hope Namira will write a bit of fluff for a failed kill, so that this can be laid to rest.

She won't. Generally speaking, anything revealed by fluff helps town. There was a big furor >>a few games back, but long story short all we'll get is a killer and victim if a successful hit goes through.

In other news, I kinda wanna sleep, you know, sometime. All these things that keep sucking me back in make me want to take a leaf from Dogwelder's book on the next person who asks a question we've already answered a ton.

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Also, yeah, Decoy's a decent one to look at too. I remember making an argument about why he bugged me a few phases ago, but can't recall what I said. I mean, I've pointed a grumpy finger at like half the remaining townies, but this one was in the same rough vein as my Deamon suspicions, if I recall correctly, and then sort of fell by the wayside.

Apr 27 2013, 12:14 AM
Not to nitpick in hindsight, but the way he went about it was poorly done. Which makes me want to go back and see if he was advised to declare his plans so firmly or if he did so on his own.
He did it on his own; I complained bitterly about it at the time while pointing out that it was effectively suicide. That said, once he announced it, I also strongly suggested that it be tested, since it came off as a very possible scum setup. Of course, the vig was basically just insurance; a real test of Lancer would've constituted targeting him with a different role, one which would have produced results but not a kill.

Long story short, Lancer was under nowhere near enough pressure to merit a claim in the first place, therefore, once he went about claiming in such an odd way, I stand by the idea that it was a good thing to verify. Then again, I'm pretty into verifying roleclaims, since it's one of the few ways we can really believe anyone.

Doc: Actually, there's a very good reason for penguin to not out herself as bulletproof. Quite simply, as a miller, she's a very attractive target for the scum. If we'd not seen so many other roleclaims, she would probably have been targeted already. Remember how I was going on about action control a few phases ago? Making scum blow a night kill is a great way to mess them up.

As to not checking? It's not a call I would've made. If there was a gambit going on, given how Lancer set things up, it was almost certainly a scum gambit, and we assumed him tested in light of his survival of the night phase.

And actually, Penguin's choice makes a boatload of sense due to her bulletproof nature. The vig thing is just icing on the cake, but if you pull back she's very clearly been baiting scum into taking shots at her. As a loud, pro-town player who is assumed confirmed, she's a target, especially since (and here's the real kicker) she knows the vig won't take a shot at her and waste a phase! It's perfect. Town will be unlikely to lynch her, barring something unusual, and scum will eventually have to deal with her. Depending on the situation, she could waste more than a single phase, too, because scum think they know her role: Miller. So, since she's clearly not the godfather (since, well, scum's targeting her) and since she's presumably not bulletproof (being the miller) they assume they got screwed by someone protecting a confirmed townie, and then they try it again. Maybe more than once.

Bam! Instant town lead in active phases. Unfortunately, also not gonna happen now, but I'd say it's a very admirable attempt, and a canny enough strategy that I believe it. It's roughly what I'd've done.

Everyone else, since penguin asked for a town-consensus target, is Dom alright? Like, he's basically offering himself up, as I see it, and this sort of gambity nonsense sets me off. Especially since he's done nothing but troll the thread and be a pain, so even if we lose a townie in testing penguin's authenticity at least it's not, like, a useful townie.

Doc, can we pretty pretty freaking please get back to stuff we're doing this phase? We know you are suspicious of penguin. It is a matter of record, and we can beat it to death tomorrow depending on how the phase goes, but right now we've got some other suspects and, like was the case with Lancer, I feel like people's pet causes are getting in the way of actually accomplishing stuff.

Deamon: scum or no? That is the question. I'd like to hear from every active player what they think about this. I'm grabbing Deamon because Penguin and I agree on him as scum, more so than Mara, and we've already got pressure votes going there.

Alternately (or, bonus points, in addition!) thoughts on Rocky, Mara, and Un? Especially Rocky from my point of view, but all are good (we'll have more to say about Un tomorrow anyways).

>This is like herding cats
>But seriously guys, let's try to get things done, eh?

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>Apologies for the godawful resolution
>This is the first image search result for "Herding Cats gif"

Hey, it's been a while since we saw that fancy chart!

>We don't that penguin didn't hit Lancer
>Since, well...
>The whole point of hitting him was that if she did, we'd never know

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I mean, I can kinda track the logic, since she didn't mention it. It's a shot that really would've made sense, what with Lancer's role in question. I just don't think we can assume she didn't take the shot, or that it really means anything; after all, Lancer could've been some sort of retributive role laying a trap.

Anyways, can we please talk about something other than penguin now? That's an answer we'll get tomorrow. For now, how about focusing on what we can accomplish today?

>Oh god, guys
>Making me post again
>Do we all, like, hate logic and evidence or something?

Penguin can prove her claim and confirm herself town by killing Dom, who is apparently not gonna do squat about it anyways. Then we'll know who she is, because of the flavor text. It's super simple.

Also, the cult is not a huge issue because to win, they need to get rid of the mafia just like town does, probably even more so since they have a smaller faction. To win, a three-person cult must get down to five people left, including all three of them. That sort of precludes a massive boatload of scum still kicking around. So, if the cult is not spreading, they are in fact at worst an irritant until the late phases of the game.

Moving on, Penguin, the bandwagon positioning does make sense with Mara. I guess Mara just felt fairly genuine in their actions to me. I have this recollection of general usefulness in an somewhat understated way. Then again, that also sounds like perfect scum cover, given the evidence in place, so I'd definitely like the bandwagoning explained.

As to Doc, honestly, this may sound a bit weird but the absolutely terrible play decisions have me leaning towards him being an extremely misguided townie, in that his choices just seem like hideously poor scum play. He's consistently tilting at windmills, and that's useless and distracting but doesn't really scream scum to me. If anything, if I was scum I'd flee in terror at the thought of being attached to anything like a wagon on post-claim Lancer and penguin.

So, Deamon and Rocky are my targets of suspicion. Dom is my vote for nightkill test (does that sound okay, penguin? I do see the possibility that he may be playing some kind of bizarre WIFOM situation to try to either a. bait a kill on him or b. make us think he's trying to bait a kill so as to avoid getting killed). Un and Mara are secondary suspicions; I'd love to see Un roleblock-checked, though, since that seems a pretty solid way to at least put to bed the post restriction thing (finally).

As to use of pro-town nightkills: this is gonna be a bit hypocritical because whenever I land the vig role I am a fantastically loose cannon, but I think exercising caution would be a good choice. I don't think lynching penguin for a bad hit is a good call or necessary in any conceivable situation because, well, we'll know she's town-aligned from the conveniently color-coded flavor text. That said, vig hits circumvent the process of gathering evidence that usually otherwise accompanies any town-driven kill, and I really think evidence is gonna be key given our relatively poor luck flushing any scum thus far. And, yes, obviously hitting scum leaves us tons of evidence, but hitting town digs us further into a hole, and since this game has proven itself fairly able to lynch, I don't think it's too big a worry.

Also, a piece of caution: With penguin outed as our vig, I think we've actually seen most of our town power roles, aside from the roleblocker, revealed. My logic says, we have no protective roles left. This is because Lancer died; the hit on him was very predictable and it would've been worth taking a shot to save him. Since nobody did, I must assume nobody could. Our cop is locked down, and the deputy is dead, and I doubt we'd see a setup with three cops (though it's not totally unfeasible). So, of the big three (cop, doctor, vig), we're left with, functionally, just the vig, which is a shaky state of affairs to be in since it's the least precise/most potentially destructive role out there, as a double-edged sword.

Where I'm going with with this is the following: town power roles, if we're about to push a lynch on you, please say something. Don't do what Laure did and just go silent. Yes, you're totally screwed if you claim, but at least you're making the mafia burn a night phase instead of letting the town sink you. Otherwise, you're justa dding to teh catastrophe.

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I would also point out that if the theory going around were right, i.e. that I was a recruit Night One and so now had the power to recruit because it was something that was passed, I should be throwing myself into the noose to let that power pass on to someone who is under less fire than me.

I think this is the root of our misunderstanding. My theory was not that anytime the cult leader got killed the oldest member stepped up as a recruit, but, rather, that it happened only a single time, at the death of the original, assigned cult leader (Keaka). This is a lot more balanced than the other option (though still pretty powerful), and I still find it quite possible, albeit now I have no idea who it could be and I don't really think it is probable if you're cleared as non-scum. That's why I was so suspicious of the disregard for the possibility.

Also, would love to hear everyone else address the folks I've pointed to as suspicious, especially Deamon and Rocky (and Mara too, if penguin wants to pursue that lead; it's still secondary to the other two to my mind).

The General SOTF Discussion Thread
So, in trawling the V1 board to update my lengthy treatise on rolls in SOTF, I was struck once again by how different the culture seems. People were really, really involved in tracking the game as it went on, talking characters, hypothesizing about the plot, etc. It's kind of cool, and is really getting me excited about V5 again.

Also, at this point it appears V5 will have ~140 characters. I think that's a pretty good number, being solidly above V1 and V2, but not quite as far out there as V3 or V4. It is, I think, around the number of V3 kids who didn't get killed in their first thread.

While Doc had some shaky stuff earlier on, I'm honestly much more interested in Deamon and Mara at the moment, especially if we're testing Un tonight. I'm also not exactly sure what you're hoping to accomplish by pressuring Doc without any questions. Pressure it to get discussion or answers coming, and Doc's been pretty decent about supplying both, so I'd rather not leave votes on him unless we're actually looking at him as a big suspect, which I'm not (yet ;) ). As to the other two, Deamon set me off too, and penguin tends not to make accusations lightly, so I want to see if I'm missing something with Mara.

In fact, I'm willing to VOTE: Deamon since that was the only way to get his attention last time. If we're not worrying too much about the cult, then we come back around to other suspicions.

The only other one I have that isn't in general circulation is Rocky, just because I see a lot of evidence that he's doing the same thing he's done in several past games as scum. Specifically, Rocky flies under the radar until all the vocal town-aligned players are dead, then steps up and starts calling the shots when there aren't a lot of players left who poke holes in shakier logic/challenge the vocal. Added to a sketchy vote on Laure, it's got me furrowing my brow in suspicion.

>I'm starting to run low on .gifs
>But here's one anyways
>We should all learn from this cat's epic example

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SOTF Roll Archive/Rolls-Per-Character Breakdown
So, today I had a little free time for a change, so I added V1 (to the extent that it's available; I think one or two sets of rolls may be missing).

>But, yes, eminently provable


I vote you kill Dom tonight. He's been detrimental in various ways, and has provided nothing of use to the town. Also, your shot will show up in the fluff. If your name's green? I believe you.

Also, if your kill does not go through, I'm inclined to believe you as well, if you're roleblocked. We'll know that happens because the second you get blocked, Ricky's dead, since scum can't afford a cop running around.

As to cults and getting freaked, I have never encountered a cult before. I actually barely use the Mafiascum wiki. What I do know is that Elena is fond of balance and hates roles that screw over the player who gets them. That makes the lack of a group suicide suspect to me. Most of all, however, your last post seemed very much like a clumsy attempt to cover up for a cult. We've seen a cult in a single game before, years ago, and it was eliminated quickly and in a fashion that left me feeling it needed a bit more kick.

If you follow my math, you'll see that, had it been correct, we'd've been in really deep trouble. However, if you're not a cultist (which you can prove this night phase, easily) then I'm willing to accept the lack of a second recruiter.

If my math was correct, the cult was the biggest threat, because, as was mentioned above, it could grow while weeding us out. Stopping that growth then became top priority; you'll note that I suggested, in any other event, that we whittle down both scum factions at the same time so as to prevent any one from attracting our whole attention.

Basically, if we've got no recruiter, you are correct and the cult is at best a trifling annoyance. If we do have a recruiter, though, the cult is a very serious issue. Unfortunately, it is impossible to say which situation we're in, though your claim has me inclined to believe that your other assessment is correct (just... some evidence would help, like a nightkill. Is everyone else cool with Dom? I'd be fine with somebody else if we've got a target we have good reason to suspect or if we're weeding out the useless).

Can a roleblocker stop the mafia member who delivers the kill? As I recall, there's good reason to believe we have a town roleblocker, as both MK and Slam claimed to have been blocked, and odds are that both are trustworthy. If so, this may be a good, non-lethal way to test the use of posting restrictions on Un-Persona, without distracting us from the potential danger of the cult.

Yes, roleblocking tends to stop nightkills dead in their tracks. I'd be cool with seeing Un blocked (assuming he hasn't already been). That said, I'd rather not see the roleblocker out themselves without good reason, since they're likely dead once they do. If the block Un and the kills stop, they can keep the scum locked down anyways, while we leisurely pick off other members.

However, after doing my research on the mafiascum wiki, I personally doubt that the cult can recruit anymore at this point. Keep in mind, recruitment has at least a 75% chance of working in this game, more if Psych was a good judge. Allowing the cult a second chance seems extremely powerful, if not hugely unbalanced. Given that the odds were in favor of the cult being even larger before Psych died, I'm thinking it's unlikely, meaning that the cult is probably more of a help than hindrance for now.

With penguin largely cleared, I can accept that. What freaked me out was the fact that her post came on very strongly, totally dismissing a possibility that had the potential to mess town up in a serious way. By default, I do not trust anybody without evidence. When I see highly skilled players trying to dictate the discourse in flawed ways without full elaboration, especially as a defense, that sets me off. I came into this phase with the idea that, given the presence of a cult, Penguin was the most likely recruit, because she's who I'd've picked in Keaka's shoes. Seeing my top suspect try to push everyone away from considering a still-expanding cult went beyond "Surprise cult" to "Crack out the tinfoil hats, 'cause I sense a conspiracy".

The only non-bastard role I can find like that is the mentor-mentoree relationship, which is limited to two at a time. Anything more than that is just a step shy of invincible. In light of that, I don't see why you're so focused on this possibility, as I'm under the impression Namira knows wot she's doing when it comes to balancing out a mafia game.

An unending stream is unbeatable, yes. A single try-again, not so much. I agree it'd be very powerful, but I believe this game has only a mafia and a cult, which meant the cult took the secondary scum role usually filled by an SK. A 25% chance of a scum faction accidentally suiciding night one strikes me as... a little underwhelming.

Anyway, I personally thought Laurels fit 'er role pretty decently. Who else could fit as the "Downtrodden Deputy"? Obviously, the Deputy part is just fluff based on the role power, but it's not unreasonable to assume that the Downtrodden part could translate to despair. In the absence of other potential 'downtrodden' folks, it doesn't seem that hard to connect 'er to 'er rolename. Once again, while I realize I've spent a lot of time defending the idea, I consider posting restrictions a rather minor thing to go on. This is especially the case after last night phase, given that nobody connects well to our "Malevolent Miser". That said, I don't think we can afford to dismiss the possibility, particularly given that I feel Percy has been acting rather scummy anyway.

Well, yes, but tipping people off to the identities of scum makes no sense, If it were the case, I'd expect town power roles to be likewise compromised. And while downtrodden definitely makes some sense, Laure read more like a goth to me than anything else.

On yet another side note, why would the scum stop roleblocking MK, without killing him right away? I can understand why they haven't bothered to go after him yet, as their roleblocker has made 'im little more than a semi-confirmed townie, but 'e's probably not long for this world. For that reason, I don't think we need to worry about MK being cult, since the mafia will do our work for us, soon enough. Scum can't afford to take all that long killing 'im, in the likely case that 'e ain't been recruited. Once again, just me 0.2, guv.

I dropped the Ricky-as-cult theory in my first post this morning, for these reasons. Last night, I just saw cult and immediately hopped to the conclusion that any confirmed townies had been compromised. Keaka's a good player, and honestly was one of the people I trusted most. Seeing him flip scum was... not what I expected, especially upon learning that he'd been spreading it around.

So, with that all out of the way, back to hunting mafia. Deamon worries me some due to his cycle of activity, as does Un, for general yet low-level scuminess. I'd also really like a little more elaboration from penguin on the Mara thing, because Mara's not really a huge mark on my suspects list, but my instincts haven't fished out much for town thus far, and if there's a good angle here it'd be good to get it out in the open.

Also, to clarify why I nominate Dom for getting nightkilled: He's refused to engage in the discourse in any way. Lynching him would therefore yield no real evidence, while taking up a phase. At the same time, he's being, at best, extremely unhelpful, and actually seems to be trying to mess up anybody who gets stuff done. Seeing less of that would be nice.

Of course, if he gives some sort of meaningful, insightful contribution that adds something to the town's body of evidence, then my feelings might change. As it is, thoug, he's been approximately as useful as the cheese in this picture:

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MK Kilmarnock
Apr 26 2013, 04:52 PM
Okay, Toben, since I am still awesome in just about every way, I have something to bring up. I read through your... not most recent, but second-most recent post. I was following through, like most of it, I just have to ask for one bit of clarification because it's not coming out as clear to me:

Why Penguin in particular, again? What's really making her seem like cult right now?
>Time for...
>Cliff notes!

She's the most logical target for a first-night recruitment, because she's a confirmed townie (and remember, Keaka would die if he tried to recruit mafia), who is known to be a good player and who had an automatic excuse for detecting as scum thanks to having already claimed as miller. While it made it likely she'd die eventually, it also made her a valuable, safe asset in the early phases, and I think Keaka would take that into account.

More than that, her posts yesterday very specifically sweep under the rug the possibility of the cult have continuing recruitment, and offer a defense of herself that falls a little flat in light of the rationale I just posted. It reads as a member of the cult trying to gently turn discussion away from them so that they can regroup and try again.

Having said that, even if Psychedelic was on point enough to recruit every night, we are at a max of three cultists. Not our pressing problem, given a likely six-member scum team, maybe seven if there really is not an SK in play. If we start knocking off scum, we can circle back to cult. I suspect that with their leader dead, if Namira's running close to how she has used cults in the past (see: Disney game) they can't recruit any more.

This, if left unchecked, screws town up in ridiculously huge ways while also benefiting the cult.

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It's just way too perfect a plan to follow if the cult does still have recruitment powers. It practically guarantees them a nearly-unbeatable lead in a few phases.

Continuing cult recruitment isn't a weird thing, either. It's a pretty powerful asset, but one that I think is balanced by a cult leader dying when targeting scum.

And, if penguin is telling the truth (which I consider highly unlikely), all we lose is a miller. It sucks, but is no catastrophe.

>TFW, on your first post, you already are pinging my scum radar again
>That's all nice
>But what about the mathematical extrapolation above?
>And the really unconvincing post yesterday?

And yes, lurkers are bad news, and so is Dom, but I think all logic points rather cleanly to penguin as secondary cult leader, and penguin is an extremely dangerous scum player. I'd feel a lot better if, yes, we talked lurkers some, but we also kept our eyes on the prize. Signs of diversion right after an exhaustive breakdown rub me wrong.

I kind of suspect any remaining cultists would suicide if we hit the secondary recruiter, for the record. Even if they didn't, they'd be totally screwed. Cult has nothing to lose by diverting attention on any one of their members as much as possible, especially if there's a second recruiter, because if they're dropped down to two members and no recruitment, they're done.

So, let's not go off on wild goose chases when we've got a big lead staring us right in the face, yes? Especially not for an argument that boils down to "But what if you just happen to be wrong?"

We're already dealing with a lynch where, guaranteed, three people will not be onboard. That means, we need to fish eleven votes out of eighteen players.

(For the record, I am assuming that the 12 to lynch is a typo, since half of 21 is 11. I'll PM Elena to double check. If it's not a typo for some reason, then we're in extra trouble because we might not be able to force a lynch on cult even with every single townie voting, forcing us to rely on mafia support/a double-voter. Needless to say, that is very bad news.)

We really don't want to get to the point where, even if we know who scum is, they can just ride laughing into the sunset unless other scum decides to help us bring them down. Pic related.

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>Be me, last night
>Get home at midnight
>Mafia updated!
>Post, even though tired
>Miss a bunch of stuff

Okay, now that I am more awake, I've considered a bit further. At present, my suspicion of penguin stands. That said, I do see other good points that I'd like to address.

I think Ricky is actually unlikely to be cult, for a couple reasons: first, he claimed early enough that his time really should've been quite limited; I feel that he's still around largely due to scum's ability to lock him down while also picking off more pressing targets. The cult would have had no real reason to expect such a strategy, and assuming that lynched/nightkilled cultists reveal as cult, then it would be a bad state of affairs if the cult was outed so quickly.

Now, I found out some more info on cults, which makes me say that penguin really has to go down this phase, probably:

Some moderators will force the Cult Leader to commit suicide if they attempt to recruit scum. This would make them Weak.

This is true; we saw that happen to Keaka last phase. That said, we also know Elena runs a pretty balanced game here, so I doubt she screwed over any one faction.

Some moderators will allow another Cultist (usually the one that has been in the Cult longest) to replace the Cult Leader if the original one dies. However, this makes it easier for the Cult to continue growing, which is not usually desired.

I believe this to be the balancing factor behind Keaka's death by attempted scum recruitment. It makes the most sense, since this setup avoids screwing over either cult or scum.

Some moderators will force all allied Cultists to suicide upon the death of the Cult Leader in order to prevent the remaining Cult from essentially being a Mafia without a kill.

We know this is not the case, since the cultists didn't suicide. Which, again, leads me to believe that there is something awry.

Now, as to why I think penguin is the oldest recruit (and thus likely a new cult recruiter)? She was the only confirmed townie on night one, making her a perfect option. More than that, as a claimed miller, she already had perfect reason to detect as scum, which would have made her a valuable target as far as having recruits who could slide under the radar goes. Her own posts yesterday are, in this light, hyper-suspicious since they represent a clear and obvious attempt to get town off the cult's back.

That's not something we can afford to ignore. In fact, I'd say it makes the cult at least as dangerous as the mafia, because if left unchecked it can grow to whatever size.

Let's look at the math. I'll assume a seven-strong mafia, though given a cult (another scum faction) six is also plausible. I find worst-case scenarios tend to be more enlightening, though.

21 players alive
7 are mafia
3 are cult
11 are town

Now, let's take a few scenarios.

Scenario 1: We lynch a townie. The mafia kills one townie overnight. The cult recruits one townie overnight.

The new balance is:
19 players alive
7 are mafia
4 are cult
8 are town

At this point, town has effectively lost the game. They are almost outnumbered by the mafia, and the cult will keep growing. The only hope town has is that the cult helps them take out mafia during the day while the mafia helps them take out cult during the night. It's a terrible spot to be in.

Scenario 2: We lynch a mafia member. The mafia kills one townie overnight. The cult recruits one townie overnight.

The new balance is:
19 players alive
6 are mafia
4 are cult
9 are town

This is a better situation for town, barely. We're still the dominant faction, and, while still outnumbered overall, at least no particular strain of scum is close to forcing into a bad spot. However, we're still one lynch from disaster. If we take it forward another night, assuming, again, that we hit mafia, and that mafia and cult again hit town, we are left with this:

The new balance is:
17 players alive
5 are mafia
5 are cult
7 are town

Town drops twice as fast as mafia, and twice as fast as the cult grows. Again, a really bad spot to land in.

Scenario 3: We lynch the new cult recruiter. The mafia kills one townie overnight. The cult recruitment has stopped.

The new balance is:
19 players alive
7 are mafia
2 are cult
10 are town

This is far and away the best of the situations we've seen. Town still has a lynch-making majority, and the cult has been stopped dead in its tracks (I presume that, even if cult command can be passed on once, it cannot be transferred more often, since that contradicts what Mafiascum says and would make an effectively-never-ending cult). At this point, we can more safely return our attention to the mafia, while still weeding out the remaining cultists. We're not in a good spot, by any means, but we're also not totally on the ropes.

Scenario 4: We lynch a cultist. The mafia kills one townie overnight. The cult never had recruitment abilities.

The new balance is:
19 players alive
7 are mafia
2 are cult
10 are town

Same situation as above, except we used a phase to smack down the lesser of two evils. Not a great allocation of resources, but at least we effectively neutralize a scum faction, since cult will have trouble forcing a majority with no kill and only two members.

Scenario 5: We lynch a cultist, but not the recruiter. The mafia kills one townie overnight. The cult recruits one townie overnight.

The new balance is:
19 players alive
7 are mafia
3 are cult
9 are town

This is a bad spot to be in, because what we've basically done is maintain the scum status quo while at the same time being bled for two townies. If we continue at such a pace, scum will take us apart.

There are other elements of chaos that could come into play, such as scum messing up each other (or, to be more precise, mafia messing up the cult since cult loses a recruiter if they hit scum and scum can kill cultists, who cannot return the favor), but I do not want to count on those, because the second we count on the mafia to help us, we're in really, really bad trouble because they can just choose not to do so until they're in a position where that leads to their winning.

Given all of this, and given penguin's analysis yesterday, I can say with pretty decent certainty that she is a cultist with recruitment powers making a play which, honestly, would likely work without this sort of breakdown countering it. I think our only recourse is to lynch her. This idea is bolstered by her claimed role; losing a miller is hardly a tragedy, and if she flips town then that will alleviate a good deal of my suspicions regarding the cult's powers.

Also, another note:

A Cultist is a player that has been recruited into a Cult by a Cult Leader. They have since lost the abilities they had before recruitment.

Not all moderators take away recruits' previous abilities upon recruitment. For instance, it is possible for the Cult to have a Doctor in these types of games.

I suspect our cultists do lose powers, and would not be surprised if we lost our vig to the cult around phase two. This would explain the total lack of town kills thus far, especially if a hypothetical JOAT is a bit gun-shy about using a limited power to get rid of Dom, who amounts to little more than an annoying distraction (although, I'm still of the belief that causing chaos for the heck of it is anti-town behavior). Alternately, the loss of my vote yesterday could be the work of a cultist aligned inventor of some stripe, assuming cultists keep their powers.

Anyways, I feel very strongly that we need to get rid of penguin ASAP. It's the mathematically most feasible option, and her actions yesterday lead me to believe that she's very, very scummy.

Anyone disagree here/have alternative theories to advance?

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Apr 25 2013, 10:30 PM
Alright, this cult business really flips the table on us. The cult didn't suicide, so I gotta wonder if leadership transfers on death. Even if it doesn't, there's a damn good question that comes to mind: Why would the cult risk hitting the mafia if we've got at least one confirmed townie, possibly up to three before Lancer bit it, running around? I'm not tryin' to start a witch-hunt here, but unless Psych didn't know that hitting scum would kill 'em(which I'm pretty sure is the standard rule, but I could be wrong), then we gotta face the fact that we may have at least three traitors mixed in with the scumbags, two of which outed themselves as safe targets a long time ago. My guts telling me there's a strong possibility that Ricky and Penguin were recruited. I'm not about to string 'em up just yet, but it sounds like a good place to start talkin'.
>Great minds think alike
>Which leaves me somewhat unsure why we're agreeing
>But that's neither here nor there

Now, a few things: First, Keaka definitely did not recruit Lancer, because Lancer commuted when he said he did, making him immune to targeting that phase. If Keaka targeted him, well, that was calling a bluff. I doubt he did that. I suspect he picked someone low-profile.

Now, a few things stand out: first off, I don't want to make any cult assumptions. The one time we saw a cult, it didn't last long in play at all. Also, I'm feeling a little bit funny about penguin's actions here, and here is why:

Having said that, even if Psychedelic was on point enough to recruit every night, we are at a max of three cultists. Not our pressing problem, given a likely six-member scum team, maybe seven if there really is not an SK in play. If we start knocking off scum, we can circle back to cult. I suspect that with their leader dead, if Namira's running close to how she has used cults in the past (see: Disney game) they can't recruit any more.

I suspect, if any single member of the town is a cultist, it is penguin, and here is why: Keaka is a canny player, and so is penguin. She claimed on the first day, a claim that is very unlikely to be fake (for reasons I've beaten to death). Moreover, it's the sort of thing that can carry her a good way. Scum is likely to wait on the miller in favor of more important roles, and town is likely to wait unless they're at a dead end. While recruiting penguin may make for a poor play as a long-term investment, I think her analytic skills more than make up for that, especially since she was the only target there was really reason to believe safe on night one. More than that, her claim made her a lot less likely to be killed than she usually is; she's rather effortlessly flown by thus far.

For this reason, I do not think we can believe a thing she says re: the cult. Specifically, I am very uncomfortable taking "no further recruitment" as gospel because, well, that's exactly what the cult wants town to think, no matter what. Maybe the first cultist inherits recruitment powers, or maybe they started with an acolyte of some sort, a la the deputy. Either way, I'm very very suspicious right now, because this argument just doesn't have the usual level of logic and rationale I like to see, and, honestly, penguin would've been my first choice for recruitment. Obviously we still need to chase the mafia, but scum is scum is scum, and ignoring one faction just gives it the possibility to make a resurgence later. A bird in the hand is, as the saying goes, worth two in the bush.

That said? Even if penguin is cult, she's still useful for fishing out mafia, so do take that under consideration. I'm inclined to agree with her suspicions at a cursory glance; Deamon made a surprisingly good showing the one time he got pressured, which speaks to some investment in the game, but has otherwise been useless. That feels very, very fishy to me for a townie.

First off, if would someone mind explaining to this poor bloke, is a deputy basically a back-up cop?

Yes. I'd also guess, by the presence of a deputy, that we may only have Ricky for a cop. That's... not great, given that he's locked down.

Second off, is it safe to assume that the cult can't recruit anymore with Psych gone? As near as this 'ard working bloke can tell, a cult would be a mite overpowered otherwise.

No, it is really not safe to assume that, especially with the warning we got about some roles being different. That said, I am ludicrously paranoid to the point where I don't assume an innocent child is necessarily town-aligned, so apply any grains of salt you see fit. But I would not be surprised at all to see one backup recruiter, which does not seem overly powerful to me, more leveling the playing field.

That said, I have like zero experience with cults; I was dropped night one of Disney mafia and didn't read the thread.

Also, does a cultist keep any power roles they might 'ave before being turned?

No idea, but I would guess yes.

Also, as to Ricky? There is actually a reason to cult him. He's a confirmed cop. The cult has no kill. If scum stop blocking Ricky, what happens? He starts fishing out people who flip as scum. Including the cult. Their only method of neutralization is recruitment, and that could be worth burning a phase for in order to get rid of the risk of being found out, especially since Ricky's likely seen lots of protection. So, he and penguin are for sure on my suspicion list.

I can't really find anyone wot fits as the "Malevolent Miser", which does a number on me guess about post restrictions. If I 'ad to hazard a guess, I'd say it's one of our so-called 'gentlemen', or perhaps an inactive player. However, that guess is worth the paper it was written on, particularly if the Miser is 'iding 'is restriction moderately well, so this is open if anyone else has any better ideas.

Laure kinda torpedoes the theory, I think. He and Ricky have nothing that fits their restrictions in their roles, and I just do not believe there'd be anything to hint at the identities of scum members. Keaka's restriction could relate to his title because his title would only show up in one situation: his death. With scum, that's not the case.

Penguin's claim, on the other hand, gives 'er a better chance to 'ang around for a while, so she might be worth keeping an eye on. Of course, given that the mafia's likely to off 'er for us as well if she stays for long, I'd 'old off on this for now, at least until we 'ave something more to work with.

I disagree. There are too many weird things here for me, too much that just feels wrong. I do think Un is shaky, still (though penguin actually has me eyeing Deamon more, simply for the incongruity between his posts when pressured and his posts when not). Mara, I'll need to look at again.

I'm not sure if we have a vig. Likely not, or if we do they have limited shots, since I've not seen some pretty decent shots taken (cough cough Dom cough). I just do not at all feel comfortable with the idea of "Oh, let's ignore one faction of scum while we hunt others!"

If Keaka got off three recruitments, and if we have seven mafia members (which is quite possible), ten of our twenty-one remaining players are scum. That's one under half. That takes us from having a bit of breathing room to having our backs pressed against the freaking wall here, and lets the cult play all sorts of games.

If we ignore the cult, lynch one mafia member per day, and lose one townie per night to the mafia, and everything goes perfectly besides that, after seven days we have seven remaining players.

Four are town. Three are cult.

Bam. Lynch or lose.

So, no, I do not feel comfortable ignoring the cult. Ideally, we want to weed both scum factions out at roughly the same pace (if they don't do us a favor and kill each other, which I would not count on since they make such lovely distractions for us). In practice, though, first priority is hitting scum of any stripe, because if town gets outnumbered by the combined forces of scum, then it's a terrible position for us to be in and we're reduced to counting on luck/scum killing each other.

I'm suspicious enough to really call penguin's assertions into question, because they're unusually blind to the practicalities of the situation.

So, VOTE: penguin_alien

I think the cult is very important to keep in mind, and I do not trust the attempt to derail any discussion of it onto another track.

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V5 Final Countdown and Character Application Deadlines
Right in the range of five days left for new character applications that are not a first-and-only. The deadline's gonna be enforced pretty rigidly.

Project: Wiki
Renard managed to get hold of Inky, who handled stuff himself, so we're all good now and no further comments are necessary. I'll zap the page in a couple days, once folks know. Big thanks to Renard and Inky for making me not have to go through the Wikia support system again. I don't have a Facebook profile, so the idea of using that site as a contact medium never even occurred to me.

Project: Wiki
The wiki has a vote going on right now.

The explanation there is pretty detailed, so I'll give a cliff notes version here:

Inky adopted the wiki from an inactive staff account during V4. This set him up with unrevokable wiki admin rights. Since that time, he's left the wiki (last contributing over a year ago) and the site (last logging in in January). He let me know, before his departure, that he was leaving for the foreseeable future.

Unfortunately, the only way to remove him from wiki authority is for either, a. him to do it himself or b. the Wikia staff to do it. I tried to contact Inky asking him to remove himself, but he's not logged in to get the PM and has not been around on MSN. I contacted Wikia to remove him, and they will not do so without a community vote lasting at least one week. Therefore, I have created the above, a community vote lasting one week.

I feel that having a departed member of the board holding a staff position on the wiki is bad for many reasons, not the least of which being that his account turns up as one to direct queries and requests for help to. This means newbies may find themselves unable to get the information they need, since Inky is no longer an active participant.

In light of this, I'd like to encourage everyone to go give me some backup on the vote page. To be clear, this is not a slight of any sort against Inky or his actions on the wiki. It's just an acknowledgement of the fact that we are an active community and the wiki staff really needs to reflect that fact so as to best serve the site.

So, yeah, if you could go toss a yes vote so I can get wikia to fix things up, that'd be lovely. Thanks! :)