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TvTropes Mafia Thread
EBWOP: Thirty minutes from when I started typing is actually like five minutes from now. Oh, the pitfalls of stream of consciousness.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
Change of plans so I actually leave in ~30 minutes. So thoughts!

Hmm... actually, Yugi's has pretty broad applicability if I'm reading it right, in that it could turn Frogue (and possibly Imehal) into regular Doctors, Seth into a regular Watcher, and Penguin and Maddie into regular Bulletproof Townies (instead of being only immune to one faction). It also would possibly convert Decoy into a regular Cop (which would make his role actually less useful for his team, most likely).

On the one hand, Yugi did claim last. That means he has no reason to worry about stepping on anyone else's toes with his claim. On the other, he picked something really bizarre that nevertheless combos nicely with roles we've seen so far.

I feel like Yugi's claim is the more plausible because it fits better with the weird setup of the game. Both claims honestly make me somewhat nervous, but the nail in the coffin for me is Flare's role being one-shot. It just does not make sense to take a ho-hum role and limit it to the extent that the most impactful roles in the game are. Sure, there's the possibility for it t be an amazing game-changer in an extremely narrow set of conditions, but I doubt the game would be balanced around town isolating a mafia member with the kill and then turning it on another useful target. My research says that most redirectors can't turn abilities on themselves, so for Flare's role to be great he'd need to know two mafia members going into the night phase and have neither of them lynched, or else it's just a shot in the dark.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
EBWOP: Okay, that claim does not do it for me. Redirection is an odd thing to have gated to a single use (something otherwise seen only for kills and bulletproofness), and given the scope of the powers we've seen so far it seems a huge liability as a town role--Flare could maybe get the kill moved (but would have to pick incredibly luckily) and all the other junk we've seen from scum would be so-so at best if redirected, while moving town actions as town could be disastrous or useless. Scum, meanwhile, could get a ton of mileage out of that sort of ability. I'd not be too surprised if Flare had more shots but burned them and doesn't want to cop to it.

If Yugi claims something totally unbelievable, maybe my view will switch, but for now my vote stands.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
General Goose
Nov 30 2015, 04:06 AM
Re: Decoy. He claimed role cop. I'm a regular cop. Counterclaiming him when he had a different role to me + his lynch was already not believed in the first place seemed to me to be a waste.
That's exactly what I wanted to hear and sorta figured. I think counter-claiming anyways could've had merit for various game design purposes but that's something for the post-game thread. Basically, I was very slightly worried you were some sort of Darth Mafia cop but am now fairly confident you are not.

Having looked over stuff, while Slam's play has made me a little nervous of late, and his narrowing the choices down to two rings some alarm bells for me, I actually do see all the logic behind his actions based on his claim. More than that, the folks I'm town-reading hardest back that take up.

So that leaves me looking over Yugi and Flare again, and of the two I really feel Flare is more likely to be scum. He has a few really good posts and reads, but a few things stand out as shaky. While these have been there the whole time, they were more excusable to me when I was scum-reading Slam.

Here are the things about Flare that have me worried:
  • Flare jumped somewhat opportunistically at Yugi's joke near the start of the game. His play here had a sense of having it both ways--he expressed awareness of the possibility of a joke, but also let his vote stand.
  • He had some commentary about Darth Mafia's make-up that seemed sort of odd to me; it doesn't flow too well from previous experience, IMO. It could be inside information, misdirection, or honest speculation, but it's an odd thing to pull out for its own post.
  • Flare's thoughts about the current scope of the game make me edgy, because they're very optimistic. If Flare is Sugar Mafia (the 4/2 split possibility) then town could lose in an awful hurry. If he's Darth Mafia, he could be reading the situation correctly or could be trying to coax town into under-shooting.

I've got to run for some anniversary stuff. I'll be a little iffy on activity thenext couple days--should have time to get in and read and comment, but perhaps not in as much detail as I tend to. I really think that between Yugi and Flare, Flare has the more suspect behavior because it's much more geared towards staying out of the spotlight. Yugi's done weird stuff, but always weird stuff that has reasoning behind it that I can see and that makes more sense from a town point of view than a scum one.

As such, given how we're close to the end of the phase and my time is a bit limited, I'll VOTE: Flare.

Gonna feel very silly indeed if Slam is baiting us. ><

TvTropes Mafia Thread
Okay, as a general question, I'd love Yugi, Slam, and Flare to each give thoughts on the other two in as much detail as possible.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
Actually, I do have two quick questions for you, Goose:

First off, can you look over my breakdown of Slam, Flare, and Yugi and give your thoughts on it and on them?

Next, a little thing that bugged me slightly when I went over your actions last phase: why didn't you counter-claim Decoy? I have a bit more to say on this point but would rather wait for a response.

Still gonna reassess my three main questionable reads in a little--going to pay rent at the moment.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
Nov 28 2015, 04:07 PM
I think this demosntrates where I'm reading your change of tone from.
I can see where you're coming from here in being confused, and I think some of it's down to me not articulating well at 4 am. Basically, I liked that you pressured RC, but if you follow the link a thing that stood out was that you didn't actually vote for him. So while you pressured him, when the chips came down you were non-committal in that only voted half a week later, when the train was well-formed.

So basically, I liked the form the pressure took but disliked that you weren't willing to put your money where your mouth was until there was a larger group heading that way. That pattern is one which has repeated a lot this game. I'll need to go back and see if it still feels scummy to me in light of your claim, but I don't think my reads are contradictory or mutually-exclusive, just possibly poorly-explained.
That said, Slam, why did you assume you were blocked by Imehal specifically?

You've got a reputation in mafia games and that makes you a magnet for night one actions; it wouldn't be a huge stretch to assume that Ime targetted you on that night. I didn't dismiss the possibility of a roleblocker, but I focused on the visible evidence instead.

Okay. I think we must have different understandings of how Imehal's role works/worked. In my understanding, the jailkeeper roleblocks the person they protect, so her targeting me would have meant nothing to your success/failure. Meanwhile, you though she'd've made me untargetable via her protection, yes?

TvTropes Mafia Thread
Can you give me a little more detail there?

Normally I'd cut a lot more credit for neighborizer, but given that we're dealing with Vyse as host specifically, the damage scum can do through such has me super on guard (as a reminder, while Vyse was not the neighborizer, he was the first neighbor in OOTS Mafia and used that to coast through the game largely unchallenged. Some research indicates to me that Mafiascum actually does use scum neighborizers--not amazingly commonly, but enough for it to be of note.

I'll need to mull this over some more. With Slam's role, he certainly looks less scummy even without his alignment confirmed. I'm not 100% on how much less scummy and will have to reread with the new info in mind, and since that took like an hour yesterday and I'm heading out in fifty minutes and still need to get ready, it'll need to be put on hold a bit.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
Nov 28 2015, 12:52 PM
Indeed, I can confirm that Slam is a neighborizer.
Espi, do you have Slam's alignment from being neighborized, or just an invitation to a channel?

re: Slam's points:

Half your argument says I must be Darth because I was scum hunting RC so hard, but then the other half of your argument says I tried to distance myself from the decoy lynch, which flipped on the same alliance. Why would I change my tactics halfway through? If I'm going to scum hunt for the sake of building credibility, shouldn't I be thorough?

Quotes please? Because I legit don't at all get what you're driving at here. You didn't hunt RC that much harder than you did Decoy, and I generally liked your play in both instances except for the somewhat noncommittal nature of it. However, I noted that good scum-hunting does not stand out as town to the degree it would in a normal game.

You're looking at what I said and reading "He's saying it's so suspicious that I must be Darth Mafia!" when what I'm trying to convey is "It's solid enough play I can basically eliminate you from the pool for Sugar."

I'm... actually decently convinced by the explanation for the Maddie/Penguin push in light of the claim, though. It resolves a lot of the weird inconsistencies. I still absolutely think Slam could be lying, but if Espi confirms that he got Slam's allegiance in the role PM that makes Slam close enough to confirmed town that I'll trust him. The night actions also include a few particularly telling bits that stand up well to analysis.

That said, Slam, why did you assume you were blocked by Imehal specifically?

TvTropes Mafia Thread
Going to bed now as it's 4 am. ;-; Will be out until mid-afternoon tomorrow, as a heads-up.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
Alrighty. Here we go, from least to most suspicious:

Yugi: Yugi's not played perfectly by any means. He's been around, but not super vocal. That said, I've basically wholly discounted overall activity in my reads because it's a super easy metric to be misled by and has absolutely no reliability when reading skilled players. What I've liked about Yugi is how his reactions have lined up and how he's broken ranks with the collective voice. Yugi got pressured quite thoroughly near the start of the game for reasons that were pretty blatantly silly, but rather than get way into it he snarked about being taken seriously and then confirmed his joke. It's a pretty laid-back style, which seems odd for scum--Yugi could've struck back hard and with pretty good justification. Also of note, the handling seems really odd to me for a scum member potentially on their own (if we trust Flare's theory, which... I don't enough to bet on). Yugi isn't someone I see as super experienced scum.

When RC was on the chopping block, Yugi had a sarcastic reply towards him but then voted for Lore instead. This is actually, to me, a huge point in Yugi's favor now that we've seen more flips from Sugar Mafia. It seems highly improbable that Yugi is Sugar Mafia because, as I pointed out in my breakdown/catch-out of Decoy, Sugar Mafia were in full-on bus mode by that point. At the same time, it makes no sense for Darth Mafia to do anything to divert a lynch that's not aimed at them. If RC had been mislynched, Yugi wouldn't have looked worse than anyone else. So why vote Lore? Well, Lore was acting sketchy as all heck. Yugi broke from the pack here with a hunch that put him in the spotlight for very little obvious gain. That strikes me as a scum-hunting action, not a laying-low action.

Yugi stood up for Seth based on a read on personality. Once again, that's an odd choice for scum. Generally speaking, making plays on gut reads is a more townie trait because scum have more pieces of the puzzle in front of them and thus can act with greater logic. This is especially the case for players who don't have too defined a style (for instance, Ricky plays from the gut most of the time regardless of role, while I dig me some complicated breakdowns no matter what).

Yugi comes into the Decoy lynch without a lot of comment, but that's because of the timing--the phase actually ends without a lynch. No-lynches phases favor scum. Yugi could have super easily lurked that out, but again he takes an action with potential to draw heat that doesn't have any tangible benefit for scum. Come next phase, he expresses willingness to hammer but also offers to wait for town's word twice. This is big, because he could've probably hammered without being too horribly suspicious but instead gave town extra time to chat--something that ended with him not being on the lynch because someone else jumped in. This phase, he's poked for activity (though I'd like to see a bit more from him, I am aware I've kept people waiting myself).

So overall, the picture I get of Yugi is of someone fumbling through the game in a very legitimate manner. His voice is exactly as normal--jokey and a bit biting. The choices he has made have almost always made more sense from a town perspective than a scum one. A big thing I've been working on this game is trying to put myself in people's shoes to see what faction their actions make sense from (see: identifying which type of scum Decoy was based on his play), and Yugi's play feels townish to me--not super effective, but townish.

Flare: Flare is tough because I had a really shaky impression of him at first. He jumped at Yugi's joke while also expressing seeming awareness of it not necessarily being literal--why do this? It felt a bit like an attempt to get an easy lynch off the sort of meaningless "self-incrimination" that often gets town chasing its tail day one. That said, Flare then admitted to potentially acting rashly but does not remove his vote. That's an iffy stance for me; it comes off as somewhat townish in that he doesn't totally backpedal and appease, but it comes off as somewhat scumish in that he keeps his vote on the wagon while already distancing himself from it.

Flare got on Grim's case for how he approached Ricky[/rul] which holds some interest knowing their alignments. He also had some interesting speculation on Darth Mafia make-up. These things could peg him as any alignment, but certainly rated a mild raised eyebrow. Flare is again on the wrong side of Grim vs. Ricky and talks a bit about why; I actually find his reasoning generally solid. Flare at several points cautions town and when he does so he tends to be right. This is a nice townie point since he's someone who could easily get away with not doing so.

This post, though, is a big tipping point generally in Flare's favor. It's totally in keeping with his play in Scrubs Mafia, where I paid a great deal of attention to his style while trying to figure out how to make town lynch him. It shows Flare suddenly finding something to engage on, a point to fight over, and he dives into it with zeal and attention. His points are cogent and largely correct. It's a great showing, and it makes his push against Grim make a lot of sense... which makes it an extra favorable impression when he steps away from it in pursuit of a more notable threat.

Flare catches out the weirdness with Maddie and Penguin[/rul] and pursues it for logical reasons. He then jumps ship to try to avoid a no-lynch
and is surprisingly on the money about Goose and Un. He does hammer Decoy slightly earlier than Yugi perhaps could have, but has at least set it up in advance.

That said, his thoughts on remaining players and his very vague soft-claim both push me a bit back towards suspicion. They could be legit speculation, or they could be scum getting jumpy trying to drive it home.

Overall, I actually like Flare better than I remembered looking back. He's been on-point, but he's kept lower than Yugi for me due to some screw-ups that make little sense as town play but fit pretty nicely for overenthusiastic scum. But he's looking more good than not to me. That said, in multiball, you only get so much credit for scum-hunting without slipping up, so Flare's compromising is doing him some favors here too.

Slam: Here we go. First off, Slam gets automatic suspicion points from me as he's one of the craftiest scum we've had and is a pro at laying low until the time is right (see: TV Mafia). Slam catches Yugi's joke but doesn't really take a side, saying it's probably nothing but could be something. Looking back, this looks worse to me because it lets him distance himself from a bad wagon without actually discouraging it.

Slam goes after RC on pretty good grounds. It's legit solid scum-hunting, and were this game not multiball would count for a lot more. He later tunnels a bit on Frogue seeming to imply there's a vig in play, something rather left-field... except that later Frogue turned out to be a quasi-vig, as we learned when Frogue was killed promptly by Darth Mafia. It's a very small brush-up that never got resolved, but it's the sort of thing I watch for because it suggests to me that Slam saw something. Often as scum I've figured out town power roles during the day phase, even while drafting posts, and this looks to me like it could potentially be a bit of that leaking through.

Slam hones in on Grim for pretty solid reasons. He drops it with equally decent rationale. He then hypothesizes that scum are responsible for Frogue's death which Bik reveals to be correct. Hm.

Here we get some early reads from Slam. Of note, Maddie is a slight scum read, Penguin a slight town read, Flare a slight town read, and he actually dodges giving a real judgement on Grim, which is a bit odd. He goes after RC, which speaks to legit scum hunting.

Slam plays both sides on the Lore train and again puts some suspicion on Grim without committing[url]. When he does finally vote for Lore, he does so with a side order of disclaimers that it's basically only because Lore volunteered.

Slam talks about Grim's death but can draw nothing from it, but he does muse quite notably about the single nightkill--interesting, since Darth Mafia was the one to miss the kill. Of vital importance: this is exactly when Slam starts going hard after Maddie. Maddie, who had single-shot immunity to a nightkill specifically from Darth Mafia, who missed a kill that night. Hm. What that looks like to me? Slam, as a member of Darth Mafia, took a shot at Maddie and then when it didn't kill her started to suspect she was either bulletproof town or some godfather-esque role on Sugar Mafia, leading to his more dogged pursuit of her. Slam is suddenly way more confident and dialed-in than he's been at any point prior during this game. Why? Well, it seems to me it may well be because he couldn't get rid of Maddie any other way. It would also explain why Darth Mafia hit Penguin--they'd tried for Maddie before, failed, and figured that they'd get a guilt-by-association lynch when Penguin flipped Sugar.

Slam continues to tunnel hard on Penguin and Maddie, noting Seth is a secondary concern. He discusses the use for flips for credibility re: Seth and makes something of an appeal via flattery to town. He's super noncommittal about Decoy, hearkening back t his behavior with every prior lynch.

When Maddie and Penguin do flip, Slam quickly buries them under the label of bad townie, disclaiming his poor read on them by asserting they misplayed. He also makes comment about them having absorbed a shot already potentially (which gets an eyebrow-raise from me for reasons mentioned above and then immediately backpedals upon realizing Bik had already clarified. It's a bizarre sequence of events, since we all knew Bik's role.

Finally we get another reads post. It's pretty comprehensive, but a few things stand out. Slam town-reads Flare, scum-reads Yugi (for things which strike me as easy to say but actually false), and null-reads everyone else except Decoy (who he's still not committed particularly hard to and seems to have adopted mostly on a that's-what-they-said basis). When he does fully go for Decoy, he does so because "we" don't believe him--it's a little thing, but a word choice clearly intended to lump Slam with the collective and once again disclaim personal responsibility.

So here we have it. Slam's entire play to date strikes me as hugely suspect. He takes half-hearted stances on everything except for gunning ridiculously absurdly hard for the one person Darth Mafia couldn't kill and her ally. His most common analysis is "Could be town, but on the other hand could be scum." There are a number of weird unprompted speculations or comments that line up with the night actions taken by Darth Mafia.

To level with everyone, I was looking Slam's way a moderate amount before I started this review. Having paged through his posts for the last hour, I'm way, way more convinced he's scum, and particularly that he's Darth Mafia. It's the thought process method; much as Decoy's actions all lined up to be perfectly logical for Sugar Mafia, so too do Slam's for Darth Mafia.

As to Slam's latest post:

I believe now you're just putting words in my mouth. All I said was that you claimed the kills were lining up in my favour; I never said anything about who was responsible for them. That's not like you, Tobe; stick with the facts if you would.

Second, I'm curious for him to elaborate on his claims that the kills line up in my favour. I'm quite confident that I can counter it, and Espi can confirm it.

I think it's a pretty logical assumption that Espi's countering here would be by merit of his role. If not? Great! But you're playing coy. If there's something to share, share. If you're town, waiting for Espi and being vague is not doing anyone any favors.

What I DO find a lot more interesting is that you've specifically focused on Penguin's flip.

What that means is that if Penguin died and flipped scum, Slam would get town cred for having correctly identified and pursued scum. If Penguin died and flipped town, Slam would get town cred from having been town-read by a townie, without the risk of having that townie change their mind and label him scum later.

Any reason you don't think I could have been involved in Maddie's death? :)

So, as laid out above, I do indeed have reasons to focus particularly on Penguin's death. We know Darth Mafia killed Penguin. Your actions align more solidly with them than with Sugar--in fact, you've got a pretty good record for scum-hunting Sugar Mafia in a legit way.

For the record, the sole reason I'm not ending this post with a vote is because of the prospect of Espi confirming something. I don't want to potentially enable a quick-hammer, and while it would likely take at least one town vote on top of mine (assuming we're not at a 1/2/3 split, in which case we're in super bad shape anyways), we do have some time here.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
Okie dokie. This has been delayed a bit for various RL reasons, but here goes.

First of all, I have reason to believe Tobe's claim as an ascetic. That does not mean I consider him confirmed as townie; it's a role I could see scum having.

Second, I'm curious for him to elaborate on his claims that the kills line up in my favour. I'm quite confident that I can counter it, and Espi can confirm it.

This makes me a little nervous. Why? Because of what's already on the table. Specifically, Slam's currently implying/loosely soft-claiming off information that's entirely been revealed already. My claim has been checked by Espi and Goose, and as I mentioned earlier, it was useful to me to confirm them. Now, however, anyone in the game can claim to have targeted me with whatever ability they feel like and received no effect whether or not it's true. The use of "have reason to believe" here is pretty suspect to me because it's implying Slam has some reason above and beyond what everyone else has. Why not just say he believes it?

Next, on Espi confirming: Espi can't confirm anything this phase, because he already shared that he has not followed you. If we are in a LyLo situation, Espi's theoretical ability to confirm tonight means absolutely nothing if we misfire today, and feels like a stalling tactic. At that point, Goose could also confirm you as town flat out.

More than that, I actually never said anything about Slam performing the kills personally, and the focus on reading my statement as such is getting my hackles up further because it's an instance of directing a power role.

To reiterate my argument on why the kills make me suspicious of Slam (from last phase:

Basically, Slam was in a spot to hugely benefit from the deaths of Penguin and/or Maddie, regardless of their alignments. Slam loudly and publicly scum-read the two of them. In return, they town-read him.

What that means is that if Penguin died and flipped scum, Slam would get town cred for having correctly identified and pursued scum. If Penguin died and flipped town, Slam would get town cred from having been town-read by a townie, without the risk of having that townie change their mind and label him scum later. The only for scum Slam to lose with the deaths of Maddie and Penguin was if they were allied scum.

At the same time, killing them didn't make so much sense for non-Slam scum. Now, obviously Sugar Mafia also shot one of them, but Sugar Mafia seemed to be targeting everyone expressing willingness to fall in with a Decoy lynch. But why would Darth Mafia shoot the other? Penguin had claimed a flat out useless role, and Maddie, while unclaimed, was eating heat from multiple directions. Slam was pursuing them pretty closely, and was actually accumulating some support, which meant there was a decent chance that a lynch could have gained traction. Meanwhile, we had multiple confirmed townies offering much more appealing targets from any objective standpoint. It's a strange shot for a scum team that doesn't gain anything specific from it. The only person who clearly directly benefits from those deaths is Slam, and at the same time it's in an oblique enough fashion that it strikes me as overly-complicated for a frame job.

Total breakdowns of Slam, Flare, and Yugi coming next post. This one's gotten a bit long.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
Hmm... okay. I guess we're sort of in "not sure" territory then. I'll give more cogent thoughts in a bit, but probably later tonight/tomorrow--I'm going out in a bit and don't have too much time to sift through everything right now.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
Nov 26 2015, 01:39 PM
Nov 24 2015, 03:59 PM
Nov 24 2015, 03:42 PM
I followed Flare last night, got no result.
Espi: Was it the same reply as when you followed me?
I believe so.

Also, I did not follow Slam or Yugi.
Can you double check the PMs for me? Specifically, I'm looking at this post. If my understanding of the tracker role is right, there should be some sort of difference between got-no-results-because-of-power-interference and got-no-results-because-your-target-took-no-action. If it really was the same both times, have you had that for anyone else, alive or dead?

Basically, I'm trying to figure out if your results suggest a. Flare has no night action, b. Flare is, like me, immune to night actions, or c. you got roleblocked. If it's option b, I'm gonna be pretty darn suspicious of Flare unless he has a good explanation (though there are certainly some of these) because I don't see town having two roles that are really similar. If option a, it doesn't mean a lot--we've seen passive roles from town and several common scum roles are passive. If option c, it's just good to know; there's absolutely no reason for town to block Espi at this point.

Gonna wait on further clarification before delving too deeply here.

So SOTF joins the prestigious ranks of teams to best CLG?

TvTropes Mafia Thread
If there's only one scum team left, I'm 95% Un blocked the kill and similarly sure it was aimed at Espi. Espi was the only remaining semi-confirmed townie after last phase, which made him the logical target for scum so we'd be starting over again this phase. Un's claim was in doubt--I honestly thought he might have been faking. Trading himself for Espi is the only choice that makes sense and is a really great deal because he saves a largely confirmed townie and eliminates the risk of being mislynched in one go.

The only other way that makes sense to me is if Espi is scum and his faction shot Un, specifically to create the impression I've otherwise gotten. I suppose it's possible, but find it really unlikely. I think the odds of Espi being anything other than a tracker are really low, and despite Decoy's flip as a scum-aligned cop, I think the odds of a scum-aligned tracker are quite low. Scum just gets so much less from the role than town does.

If there are multiple scum teams left, either someone absorbed the other shot (which is possible, I suppose) or it's like I said before, with one targeting Un directly and the other shooting his target (presumably Espi). I find that, again, really unlikely unless Espi is scum, which is itself something I doubt.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
Also, have you ever followed Yugi or Slam? Please don't share what night, if you did--I'm just curious to know if you have any info on either of them.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
Nov 24 2015, 03:42 PM
I followed Flare last night, got no result.
Espi: Was it the same reply as when you followed me?

TvTropes Mafia Thread
Normally, I'd greet a claim like Goose's with a hefty amount of skepticism since it leaves him with a single shot left at a critical stage, and I'd say there's still a chance he's Darth Mafia since we saw that Sugar Mafia had a Cop, but he's definitely not making stuff up regarding targeting me.

I am The Stoic and I'm an Ascetic. What this means is that I'm immune to all night actions except kills, both helpful and harmful. I considered claiming earlier in the game because my role is such that there's a pretty good chance of power roles splatting off me, but didn't for a few reasons. I hoped to potentially waste scum time, and I realized my role gave me strong potential to confirm players (and in return to be confirmed by them). It's why I about-faced so hard on the Espi lynch once he claimed; I could say with certainty that he'd actually targeted me because the result he produced fit and was something that nobody would reasonably fake.

I'm claiming now so that Goose doesn't blow his action tonight checking me for a third time. I'm inclined to trust Goose as town at the moment--his play fits a whole lot better for a town cop than a scum one.

What this means:

If Flare's theory that there is only a single mafia member left is correct, town is in a very good spot assuming Goose survives the night. We can lynch one of the three unknowns (Flare, Yugi, and Slam), let Goose investigate one of the other two, and then either lynch them (if they flip scum) or the other (if they flip town). However this only works assuming there is no Godfather in play--if there is, we'd potentially shoot ourselves in the foot.

I also don't really like gambling on there only being one member of scum left, because it seems rather risky. We could have one from each faction, if one targeted Un directly and the other targeted whoever he protected.

I'll go through and give more thought later, but with the revelations at present Slam has moved to occupy the spot of my greatest suspicion. We're unfortunately in a spot where, since only Sugar Mafia has been caught out, we're flying a bit blind assuming there aren't any of them left; presumably every Darth Mafia member has been legitimately trying to take them down. I'll talk more about Slam in a bit, but he's here because the night kills make a lot of sense from his perspective, his play pattern isn't too far from what I'd expect of him as scum, and (and this is actually a fairly notable factor) I've been getting good vibes/seeing play I like from Yugi and Flare.

New Official V5 Away Thread
Handler: MurderWeasel
Dates Away: November 22, 2015 - November 24, 2015
Days Away: Three
Reason for Away: I've basically been AWOL for months anyways, but I'm finally within sight of fnishing some of the school stuff responsible for that. But not until Wednesday.
Characters: BB Gunnerson