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TvTropes Mafia Thread
Penguin: That makes a ton of sense. Also, very interesting on motivator-as-scum; looking at your setup, I can see roughly why it was used and I think I need to get past the trap of assuming any degree of vanilla trappings for this game.

Right now, Lore's my favorite (hence my vote staying constant). I have some doubts still, but less so than for everyone else and that's not really out of the ordinary. My only real stumbling block is the possibility of confirmation in one phase (and Lore, if you're not lynched, please please try for this so we don't waste future phases on this), but the potential for it to not happen and to instead to lead to this exact same conversation in a phase (or, far worse, two or three) is really high.

I'm gonna try to break down the quieter folks I haven't touched on (having discussed Yugi, Flare, and Seth in previous posts, iirc) a little. I'm not even sure these rise to the level of worthwhile reads, but at this juncture it can't hurt to discuss how I feel the wind is blowing.

Goose has felt roughly in keeping with how he normally does, but Goose is one of those players who has a pretty constant style no matter his alignment. He tends to become more vocal/blossom (for better or for worse) in the later stages of the game, and it becomes a question of whether we're willing to gamble on his being town. The big worry, of course, is he often manages to make it there without leaving much for analysis, which makes his late-game posts count for more. That said, Goose has displayed a couple reactions that strike me as more town than not. He's made a few arguments (in favor of Prim and in regards to phrasing re: the low-activity) that aren't really relevant to gameplay but more come from his tastes in how the game be played. At the same time, he hasn't harped on either to the extent he tends to when using them as cover for scum.

Slam is a really dangerous player when he's bringing his A-game and I know for a fact he's good at navigating multiball, but his actions so far have seemed decently on-point and his scum-hunting of RC seemed legit. My big points of hesitation here have to do with the game's multiball status (Slam could easily be Darth Mafia and get on RC's case and have it be totally within expected play patterns for him) and this post, which is a bit off because Slam himself isn't going particularly hard for anyone. If Lore were to flip scum, I'd look at Slam with greater suspicion as he gave a both-sides post here that I can see as either genuine confusion or unbecoming bet-hedging.

Maddie's play has been fine, and she claimed something that would be, to put it mildly, rather odd to fake (outside a very few circumstances that all would peg her as town-aligned and thus I don't want to go into). The thing is, there's no way to say for sure that she is town from her claim, and she's been tonally off at a few points. I have this very slight, niggling heebie-jeebies feeling but it could just be residual from getting wrecked by her last game; all my logic at this point says Maddie is probably on the side of town. Her play has been solid and she's pursued good leads throughout.

Un is someone I have trouble reading every single game. I really like that he did engage with my questioning, and think we can get a lot more off direct prodding here. I've liked a few elements of his play, especially when it comes to his seeming to actually be engaged with his queries and suspicions--he strikes me as actually weighing the information he's taking in, and while that doesn't mean he's town it is a decent sign.

Decoy has been going for low-hanging fruit, but it's all been stuff where there have been legit reasons. There are a few things that do make me raise an eyebrow here a little, though. One of the big ones: in this post, Decoy engages in some odd speculation. The note on RC's lynch being a matter of time makes me less willing to give Decoy credit for it than the others (and, notably, almost everyone expressed suspicion of RC at some point during the game). It's a piece of logic that could very much justify a busing from scum's perspective, since it frames the lynch as inevitable. Next off, we have him commenting that Imehal was a strong town voice (which is something that I'd not take for granted based on her performance in this game--I was actually developing a very light scum read on her due to how she was framing some of her arguments and there was some pressure her way from other directions as well). Also telling is that decoy appears to have missed Bik's clarification on the killers. At least, I'll assume he did--there's no town reason I can come up with to fake it. In that case, he's able to get into the head of Imehal's killers (the Sugar Mafia) easily, but is less able to judge what took Ricky out. It's an odd little point, but is almost making me think Decoy's Sugar Mafia. It's especially notable to me that he fell onto the RC wagon only after Ricky did, so we already know Sugar was busing to some extent by that time. He also has one of the smallest cases against RC prior to his vote.

...I'm almost talking myself into Decoy here. This stuff didn't really stand out to me at first, but reviewing it I'm able to construct a possible thought pattern/mode of play that seems to me to fit pretty logically--tellingly, I can peg Decoy to a specific mafia in my reasoning, which I can't say for anyone else. Can I get overall thoughts on this?

I'm still really shaky on Lore, too, but would be willing to leave a night open for possibility of confirmation in light of this.

NOTE: This post was written over the last three hours, with sizable breaks interspersed, so apologies if any points are dropped--my reads evolved over the course but I need to run for now so can't really review it. For now, though, UNVOTE and VOTE: DECOY. Still totally 100% fine with a Lore lynch, though.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
penguin_alien
Oct 30 2015, 07:20 AM
@the spooky mirror: what would convince you of Loretta's claim right now?
This is something I want to touch on, because it got me thinking.

Basically, the issue with Lore's claim is that she claims to have used her actions only on conveniently unverifiable sources. However, she also has an action we could easily verify if things work out right. I think, for me to be down with Lore's claim, I'd want Espi to verify that she successfully targeted him. That has a lot of potential to go crooked given roleblockers (though Sugar Mafia is down a block role in RC, the other scum could have one) and scum nightkills and the longer it takes to get done, the worse shape we're in if it never happens

I think if Lore has the actual role she claims (not Evil Overlord, whatever the double-action thing is that I'm not remembering all of a sudden), then she's definitely town. It's a role that makes zero sense as a scum role, since scum would never target anyone outside their clique (thus giving it little interactivity) unless trying to prove a claim.

That said, right now Lore's claim is the only thing making me think she could be town, and really only due to the reasoning above. Her reasoning doesn't make too much sense to me, and I'm really loathe to cut too much slack over newbie status.

I'm concerned to some extent because if Lore flips town it's gonna be a bit of a wasted phase due to the "Lynch me!" signs she's been effectively waving (though I am getting some good stuff off reactions personally, it's almost all come from Penguin's pushing. On that note, right now Penguin gets some major town cred from me because it would have been incredibly easy to sit back here and let nature take its course were she scum not allied with Lore, and she hasn't been diverting in a way that feels like trying to save allied scum--honestly, my read on Penguin is that at this point she'd toss Lore to the dogs for town cred in a heartbeat were they allied scum).

Other thoughts:

I find Seth's reaction to Penguin's push a little odd. I have a lot of gripes with Lore, but stalling doesn't enter into it. That said, if he is scum, I doubt he's allied with RC--he was sowing some seeds there rather early in the game, looking back. I actually like his play better looking over his posts in isolation, because he's had passably consistent if not super detailed pushes. I feel like the iso may flatter him re: responding to pressure/questions, though.

I'm a little curious about Grim's consistent looking in Yugi's direction. Grim, can you give your thoughts on my thoughts here? I've generally liked most of the other directions you've looked and how you've played out this phase, but this point stands out as odd to me in a way that doesn't quite gel with our typical different approaches, and I want to get to the bottom of it in case I'm missing something.

Espi and Bik: Can I maybe get your top three scum and town reads? It doesn't have to be extensive--reasoning is great, but at this point I feel pretty comfortable stating that I'm mostly using you two as a sounding board because you're still at the top of my town list.

Overall, I can be talked off the Lore train but I'd want something better and I view the process of confirming Lore's claim as one that is potentially difficult and has a lot of room to bite us later when we have less breathing room. Penguin, can I get your thoughts on how best to proceed here? I've appreciated your takes on everything else this phase, but think your input on how to deal with the currently largest train will be valuable now that the deadline is so quickly approaching.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
@Lore: Okay, I think I've figured where we're running into issues. I wasn't super clear in my question, I think.

Can you walk me though why:

1. You chose to target Prim night one with your power?
2. You chose to target me night two with your power?
3. You chose not to target anyone night three with your power?

I'm trying to understand the rationale/process behind your ability use to better get a feel for if your claim is accurate.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
penguin_alien
Oct 27 2015, 09:50 PM
People voting Loretta: do me a favor and consider how her play looks if she is town and not scum. I really don't like the overall shift from 'don't pick on the newbies who are confused' to 'lynch it with fire!'. Which, I know, not my usual stance, but we have time here to think about this and look at where people are wagon-hopping.
Definitely worth a look (though I can at least claim some consistency in dragging out the cans of gasoline). I think the big issue here is that Lore has apparently been intentionally drawing town ire for reasons that are still hazy at best to me. It's either scum WIFOM or all the benefits of having a jester without anyone actually pulling the role (We know there are no jesters due to this post, as a reminder).

Slam: What do you make of Grim's volunteering to let mass consensus pick the target for his town confirmation? Do you think he might have been lying? If so, how would that have ideally played out for him?

Un: Can you review the posts of, let's say, me, Penguin, Seth, and Goose and tell me roughly where each falls in your book and why? It would help with my read on you, at least.

Maddie: What about Lore's claim convinces you? What do you think about my hanging question in this post?

Lore: Can you answer it for me, on that note?

TvTropes Mafia Thread
Loretta
Oct 26 2015, 11:25 PM
A suicide by town is a much better way to give information on people than to die during night.
If I'm going to die during day time, I get the opportunity to create a debate and other fun stuff, afterward anyone can easily look back and to do an analysis of the others to be able to figure out who's scum and who's not.
Right, but you could also just play as a normal townie and not run into the issue (and potentially keep your power on the back burner in case we hit a situation where, say, several town power roles claim at once, as is sometimes wont to happen.

Yugi
 
Why would "Evil Overlord" be a town role?

You made me go to TVTropes. :(

That said, I went to TVTropes and Evil Overlord seems to be a regular trope and not one of the special funky sub-wikis (that said if I'm wrong someone in the know please correct me--I have basically zero understanding of the TVTropes past circa 2008 or so). Although, that said, googling Ricky's and RC's roles also fails to turn up sub-wiki stuff, so I have no clue. I wouldn't assume Evil Overlord is necessarily indicative of scum alignment, since this game seems not to follow that sort of convention. I also wouldn't assume it's indicative of town status, as scum may well have fake-claims and it's really tough to tell anything from flavor in this game anyways.

That said, I'm still really suspicious. Lore, could you please break down how and why you chose your targets and why you chose not to target anyone last phase?

TvTropes Mafia Thread
My thoughts:

I'm sort of shaky on this claim but a few things really don't add up to me. As Penguin mentioned, we had a town power role claimed. Now, normally I'd let this go as some folks not trusting Espi, but what stands out as odd to me is that Lore trusted me enough to target me but apparently not enough to trust my confirmation of Espi as my top town read. It's an odd choice indeed. Of special note to me: we actually probably saw a role without a night action killed already... Prim, conveniently enough.

So we're left with the following:

Lore claims she can give anyone a double-action. She claims that on night one, she gave it to Prim (who couldn't use it due to having a day power if my understanding is correct, and is dead anyways). She claims that on night two, she gave it to me (which is totally possible but I cannot confirm). On night three, she says she didn't give it to anyone, if I'm following, and has yet to provide a reason.

But that runs into trouble with this:

Loretta
 
General Goose
Oct 26 2015, 10:49 PM
If they DO have this power, then there's a decent chance they'll give it to a scum member or a townie.
That's exactly what I've been fearing, I thought my behaviour would have killed me earlier but it didn't seem to work.

She seems to be implying that she tried to suicide-by-town to avoid accidentally giving scum an advantage... but why do that? She's said, if I'm not misunderstanding, that she can just not use her power, which achieves the same thing without all the acting suspicious and getting mislynched, which only hurts town. This just doesn't add up to me--it seems like a fantastically complicated way of approaching a rather simple situation, which in my experience is usually not the mark of town. I like to Occam's Razor things, and in this case if you have a voluntary power that may be a massive double-edged sword, the easiest solution seems to be to just not use it.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
There are roles that can trigger upon death--Deamon situationally had one.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
Loretta
Oct 26 2015, 10:12 PM
MurderWeasel
Oct 26 2015, 09:58 PM
Loretta
Oct 26 2015, 09:02 PM
and if Weasel what he did night 2, that'd be great.
Can you elaborate here? I don't quite follow the meaning.
Wait, you don't follow the meaning of this?
I modified your role, and you didn't even know..?
I have no idea what you're talking about here. Unfortunately, with Prim dead there's no other vector of confirmation or discussion. That said, I'll allow that it is possible you're telling the truth and I was unaware. I'd really like a more detailed claim, personally, because there are a few things here that are making me raise my eyebrows more.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
Loretta
Oct 26 2015, 09:02 PM
and if Weasel what he did night 2, that'd be great.
Can you elaborate here? I don't quite follow the meaning.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
My further thoughts:

Lore stands out as suspicious for the reasons outlined in my last post.

I'm actually willing to cut Yugi some comparative slack for a few reasons. He clashed with RC during the attempted lynch, pointing out RC's attempt at diverting suspicion. He also offered to hammer RC and admitted he hadn't read his stuff that carefully while voting Lore. It's possible that he was trying to divert suspicion, but it feels like a pretty weak attempt to me, even for Yugi's rather... laid back gameplay. I just can't imagine admitting you're not really up to speed on someone whose lynch you're trying to derail--it saps almost all credibility, and combined with his earlier vote I read it more as pursuing a different avenue of suspicion with less-than-stellar game awareness. That said, given that Lore is the biggie on my radar, I may be a bit biased here.

I'd like to direct everyone's attention to Lore's last post for a second. There's a lot of stuff going on here I'm not fond of--it's basically pure WIFOM and feels a little bit like grenade-jumping. I'm not sure what prompted it, but it's not easing up my suspicions at all.

Grim: I tend to actually excuse RC's defense of Flare in that it was IMO legitimately good play--I was gunning rather hard for Flare and was actually unaware that he was away, so the prod made sense (though IIRC RC was repeating something already mentioned, which in retrospect could be evidence of sheeping for town cred (Fake edit: I looked back through and Vyse noted Flare's absence, so nobody gets any non-sugar-mafia points for being sheeped by RC).

I'm a little nervous about Decoy because he's often repeating points others have made (for example, this post repeats some of my reasoning in the second paragraph here but then pushes to a much more sure conclusion).

I addressed Yugi above, because he definitely did stand out at that point to me too, but I just can't see the collaboration--it's too much a left field vote, and as an attempt at actually getting anyone else's attention feels extremely halfhearted.

Lore remains my favorite pick. I'd really love to get everyone's reactions to her last post.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
Penguin: Do you think Grim is lying? If so, what points you in that direction? What do you make of his claim vs. Ricky's flip?

I'd definitely be down to hear more from Decoy. He's making me a bit edgy, and I don't want to hit the stage of the game where we have to start picking between scummy behavior and inactivity with a wrong choice meaning a possible loss. I sorta forgot Seth was in this game--please poke me for a read on him if I don't get one up tomorrow after digging through everything.

Grim: How do the flips change your view on the game? Who do you see as potential allies of Ricky and RC?

TvTropes Mafia Thread
I'm gonna look over this in more detail tomorrow. Grim is absolutely on my suspicion list after the two relevant flips we got (Ricky and RC), but a few elements of his claim are giving me slight pause.

I think we can safely say that if Grim is scum, he's probably Sugar Mafia (what with that being RC's flip--RC wouldn't conspire with enemy scum to confirm them). That said, his claim doesn't quite line up with Ricky's flip--they're too similar of roles. That means either Grim never used a power on RC and lied about his whole role (totally possible!) or he's telling the truth.

I feel like if there are sufficient suspicions in Grim's direction, he should cough up a more complete and detailed claim. I don't necessarily want to call for it now--there are other leads I'd like to pursue as well and while Grim is on my list he's not the top--but I think it at least needs to be on the table.

That said, at the moment?

VOTE: LORE

This has been bubbling for a few phases, actually, but I was a bit gunshy after Prim turned out not to be scum. That said, Lore has been on and off a ton of wagons with rather loose rationale. Lore has also made a few... odd choices of late.

I look a bit askance at the Decoy vote--it seems like Lore taking the opportunity to grab part of Grim's case and attempt to derail the RC lynch. Lore also pegs Ricky as town on pretty minimal reasoning andsoft-defended RC, which of course we've now seen was not a great judgement call. Lore also stuck with Espi as scumread longer than I'm comfortable with.

Add in a joke vote on RC and an unusual early mention of Ricky and we see a pattern of Lore interacting primarily with Sugar Mafia or when gunning for people (mostly over inactivity). It sure has my eyebrow raised.

More detailed/further analysis to come tomorrow. Just expressing my big suspicion at the moment here to start the phase.


Astrid Tate
APPROVED

Astrid Tate
You think your edits took a long time? ><

Huge, huge apologies for the wait (especially the ~ten days after I said it'd be done that day and then got sick). If I ever take more than four days on anything for you from here out, yell at me and/or folks who prod me.

Just a few more minor things to clean up:

At 6'0", while cabinets could certainly be an issue, Astrid seems unlikely to have troubles with all but the shortest door frames since while her height is exceptional for a girl her age, it's still well within typical human norms.

I think changing the phrasing to Gregory being "between careers" would probably help better convey your meaning.

The bit on Astrid's parents' reactions to her stubbornness would fit better in the section about that stubbornness (right after the section on her occasional outbursts at school, perhaps--especially since that section also suggests they actually don't know much about it--or somewhere in the last paragraph).

I think the bit on Astrid's first-team ambitions can actually be dropped--it's a bit confusing to have in the section on her childhood interests and if it is important later it can come up then.

"She realised that she wouldn’t be able to instantly go back to playing soccer on the first team" should be "She realised that she wouldn’t be able to instantly go back to playing soccer on the school team" to match the removal of the first team thing. Similarly, the bit on her not getting playtime could use a bit of reworking to match the idea that everyone gets rotated--are the coaches worried for her health and self esteem, perhaps?

That should take care of things. Again, huge apologies for the delay here.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
MK Kilmarnock
Oct 21 2015, 06:51 PM
To Toben: This question trips me up basically every time, because I said that if RC was scum, then it would seem to me like Grim is a strong scum prospect too. That doesn't necessarily translate to RC being town = Grim's town because... that's just not how logic works (If P then Q, but If Not P then Not Q is a logical fallacy), but it weakens my suspicions somewhat. As I work my way back to the present page though, I have more thoughts on this.
That is true! However...

RC claims that he has info proving Grim is town. Therefore, if RC flips town, we know he's not scum covering for his scumbuddy Grim. He's a townie legitimately claiming he knows Grim is town. Would you trust Grim in light of that? Why or why not?

Ricky
 
To Slam: Has 'weirdly aggressive nonsensical style' like, become my thing? The logic makes sense in MY head and I tend to go with my gut on a lot of things, but as far as I know my track record seems pretty darned good. Just, shit, this isn't what I wanted to become known for.

It's okay. I'm known for fake-claiming bulletproof and getting wrecked by Vyse. :P
Spoiler: click to toggle


RC: Can you perhaps cough up your night one action since you're on the chopping block? It feels like it could be really useful info going forward if you're telling the truth. Also, for bonus fun, it can (sorta) prove your claim--if you targeted someone and they were blocked that night, they know at least that you legit have that block component (though of course you could be a scum roleblocker).

I'm all for a little extra discussion time here. A few parts of RC's claim have me nervous (especially with Bik's response), but a few also raise some order of resolution questions. Is Bik's ability active or passive? If it's passive, can it be blocked?

I'm a bit weirded out by the Nurse thing since Nurse is a totally different role in the meta I usually see. I dunno. More thoughts forthcomign at some point, hopefully.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
Grim Wolf
Oct 20 2015, 01:33 AM
But assuming scum wouldn't be operating in the open together is a bizarre argument; as I said earlier, you can't just say "no they wouldn't be that stupid," because a) it's not always stupid and b) you're assuming perfect players.
I guess what's worrying me here is that you're assuming they're doing so very quickly and blatantly. While there certainly are cases where scum might make such actions, either through misplay or through a belief that it is in their benefit, I don't think it's too likely in the opening days and to a major enough degree for a whole scum team to be caught out. Multiball certainly adds to the complexity and gives opportunities for scum to collaborate, but it also makes it way more dangerous to be connected (in case the scum teams start whacking each other) and offers a lot of opportunities for each member of the tam to just do their own legit scum-hunting. Scum doesn't really care who gets lynched so long as it's not them.

RC
 
Maybe we can rely on PRs. But maybe not.

Given Vyse's stated views on this, I think we can safely put this one at "definitely not."

RC
 
Also, is avoiding being lynched and redirecting it to other people scummy? I don't think so.

It depends. Obviously, if you're town you want to avoid being lynched. You similarly want to see scum lynched. Where it starts to feel scummy is when the redirection is more about you not getting lynched than actually finding scum.

RC
 
@Toben Multiball. Scum might also have investigative roles, such as Tracker. Maybe Espi isn't the Tracker, like, he has stated no report yet. He didn't even attempt to lead anything and his claim could be fake to just not get lynched, especially as he was getting lynched. Maybe he's the town tracker, which would be cool, but he still doesn't contribute much.

I think scum very well could have investigative roles, but I doubt tracker would be among them. It's a role that has way more utility from a town PoV--scum would probably just use it to try to ferret out power roles.

As to Espi's claim... it's very slightly possible he faked it, but if he did he took a few huge risks in the specifics he provided, which very much does not feel like his MO.

RC
 
Your Flare and Prim pushes still didn't impress me the previous days, though. Not sure how to see you putting Flare on null. Why isn't he town to you?

Flare isn't townish to me because all he has in his favor right now is one post. Yeah, it's a very town-Flare post, but his posts prior to that point were not. That he got a reset of my opinion on one post alone speaks volumes for it since he was my favorite scum target before, but I just don't feel comfortable throwing out everything that felt off before because I like one post that contains no legitimate evidence of town status (like a claim or whatever--please be clear I am not asking Flare to claim, though), no matter how much I like it.

Lore
 
Note on what I said, if I were forced to vote, I'd vote Espi.
I really have bad vibe reading them, but I mean, I could be wrong.

Do you still hold this view? Why? How does my read of Espi factor into it?

RC
 
Also, if I survive this day, somebody please make an investigation of me happen to confirm me and keep me alive. This is so bothersome to being the lynch target without a good reason.

This makes me a bit nervous. I usually only fish for investigations when I'm the godfather.

Also, why do you think Lore is town?

Posting this now, more to come next post.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
Please nobody hammer anything until I catch up and post. ;-;

Writing a pretty big post right now.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
My thoughts:

I was all ready to jump on the RC wagon, but then went back through and looked over the posts he was responding to, rather than his. I still think he's wrong at best, but I can sort of follow the logic if I assume he's not quite grokking what Penguin's doing. I dunno. It looks less bad than I expected on his end, as I seem to have had some misrecollections about what was explicitly on the page vs. what I intuited based on Penguin and myself seemingly following the same trails.

That said, RC loses more points for throwing shade at Espi. More on that in a sec, but if Espi's lying he's pulling something pretty gutsy.

A big thing in favor of the RC lynch, for me: If RC flips town, I think Grim is as close to 100% town confirmed as possible. I'm almost tempted to push that way just out of policy, a la Imehal's fake JOAT claim in SDR mafia. I'm not liking RC crumbing that he's important, either. I dunno. A lot of stuff feels off and I am second-guessing myself hard.

Overall, I have three pretty solid town reads. In descending order of clarity, they follow:

1. Espi: Espi said some stuff in his claim that left me basically totally convinced he's telling the truth. I don't necessarily expect anyone else to take my word on this, and there's a fringe situation where he could be lying, but his claim and the details just sync up way too well with the picture of the game I'm forming and with my own knowledge. I went from gunning hard for him to town-reading him stronger than anyone.

2. Bik: Bik's claim seemed a little iffy at first to me, but his replies this phase make me think he's telling the truth. More than that, everyone else's reactions leave me almost certain of it. If Bik was scum and was faking his role, then he'd potentially slip up (given that we know there are more killing options than just the two scum teams, so he couldn't simply deduce responsibility based on his own team's actions). The second Bik slipped, the other scum team would know he was faking and would likely start gunning for him surreptitiously. I've seen none of that and his comments sync pretty well with what we've seen in play, so while there's a chance for the long con I'd say odds are heavily that he's town.

3. Grim: Grim claimed something gutsy. He then directed it in a fashion that makes me a bit antsy. I like that he's being cagey, and I like that he's still throwing curveballs--a Grim whose reasoning was wholly on the same page as the rest of the game would make me very suspicious of coaching. I'd really like to push a bit further at some point to confirm, especially as the game gets later, but right now it's not a priority for me because I'd say there's at least 75% odds of him telling the truth. He loses some notable points should RC flip scum, but even then I wouldn't necessarily count him scum out of hand.

People who are making me edgy:

1. RC: I dunno, he feels off. I talked myself out of it some above and then his posts afterwards (I started this at the top of page 41) talked me back into it some. I need to go back through and am not casting my vote at this juncture because we seem to have a wagon forming and I don't want to push it into the danger-range with plenty of time left. I've been a bit boggled this week as I've been sick, and this post is informed only by the last two pages of this thread. I've not really checked the vote count like I normally would.

2. Maddie: This is a very little thing, but the rhetoric here feels a bit heated for her usual style. This is very minor and an eventual flip on RC would tell me a lot--if he does flip scum, that would mitigate my suspicions pretty heavily. This isn't 100% isolated, though--I was also a bit thrown by her caveat on her Deamon read last phase. It could be nothing or it could be acknowledgement of discussions they've had about his playstyle, but he's someone she's read very confidently in the past (hence my poking, in part), and I wanted to put them both on the spot a bit by bringing that up. This is of course mitigated notably by the fact that her read was right (and we know she can't have been certain, due to multiball); it's just a little piece of phrasing that had me go "Huh."

Others of note:

1. Flare: Flare was top of my scum suspicion list until I got to this post, which made me rethink a lot. There's a good bit behind this--I'm less interested in the particular answers to my questions than I am the way Flare chose to tackle everything. It comes off a lot like last game, and generally seems a town-Flare style. The stuff I saw earlier is still there, of course, but the character of this post resets my read on Flare to null.

2. Penguin: I really do not get the suspicion on Penguin. She comes across as genuinely scum-hunting to me. That said, a. she's a good player and b. this is multiball, so I would expect absolutely nothing less regardless of alignment. I find the pressure on her sorta weird on the whole, but a lot of people are leaning that way which makes me think I might be missing something. Null read from me but I liked her reasoning on Prim and given the lack of notable wagon at the time she made it I don't count Prim's flip as town against her.

A few questions:

Espi: Did you get any results of note last night? I trust your discretion over whether or not to reveal and what to say or withhold, but mostly want a check-in here.

Ricky: If RC flipped town, what would you think of Grim?

Grim: What makes you think that scum are working so clearly in concert during the day phases? Why do you think scum might continue t target you after your claim despite the game being multiball?

Apologies for any lack of clarity in this post--will elaborate upon request. Mostly want to get some thoughts out but these are not as developed as usual.

TvTropes Mafia Thread
EBWOP: re: Maddie's info, don't tell us, like, who sent it or whatever. I actually probably don't even care now. I'd initially written that before Grim confirming RC was his target and had a hunch that giving Maddie the information was Grim's town confirmation (which would have cast suspicion on RC).

TvTropes Mafia Thread
My thoughts:

I don't like Lore's suggestion that only one scum group can kill. We have been explicitly told otherwise in the first post.

I'm not liking RC's read on me. Specifically, I don't like that he didn't scumread me from the start, which is what I was fishing for. The thing about RC's argument against Penguin is, the only unique point of data comes in vote order. I was making much the same points about Prim in much the same way, and it seemed odd to me that RC chose to narrow in on Penguin while cutting me a blank check for the same behavior. It's unusual for his process, and so I went fishing to see if he was maybe just not sharing that he didn't like my play.

I don't like anyone speculating on kill flavor before Bik turned up and gave results. It's not useful and we already knew we'd be getting the info.

Cross-referencing what we know, I find it likely that Frogue killed Deamon and quite possibly also Doc. We have our first cynicism kill, but the other is still MIA.

I'd like to hear Maddie's breakdown on her info.

Grim: It looks like Deamon could only get revenge on a lynch, not a nightkill, though I may be mistaken there.

RC: How did Grim confirm himself as town? Since it's a one-shot power, I see absolutely no harm in sharing now.

Beyond this, more thoughts to come later. I need to poke over last phase to see if a few things hold true, but am about to go out for the day.