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| Iron Angie; German Chancellor? | |
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| Topic Started: Sep 13 2005, 07:42:54 PM (502 Views) | |
| Mikitivity | Sep 13 2005, 07:42:54 PM Post #1 |
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Walking UN Archive
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OK, I was reading today a bit about "Iron Angie", the Christian Democrat who will be running for the German high office. I wanted to hear the European opinions on her and the race itself. ![]() |
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Office of International Affairs, Confederated City States of Mikitivity Member: The International Democratic Union :: United Nations Organizations | |
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| Keeslandia | Sep 13 2005, 08:05:10 PM Post #2 |
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Book Shelver
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The heck with the Europeans. All I can say as a resident of the "United States of Canada," not "Jesusland" that we're pulling for Schroder and the Social Democrats. Anything to tweak "W." |
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| Yuunli | Sep 14 2005, 07:17:34 AM Post #3 |
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Librarian's Dog
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Angie Merkel, huh? Well... She's a conservative and she leads a party that calls itself "christian". That's why I'm not going to vote for her. Schröder (the current Chancellor) is disliked by leftists because he's cutting the welfare system. He is disliked by rightists because he doesn't cut enough. Personally I'm in a kind of dilemma. I do like some of the economic reforms envisioned by Merkel's christian-democrats (CDU) and their small coalition partner, the liberals (FDP; in U.S. English: the libertarians). But when it comes to topics such as the environment, immigration and gay rights, I support the Greens, the small coalition partner of Schröder's social-democrats (SPD). This year's elections are a total mess anyway. First Schröder dissolved parliament (indirectly because he doesn't have the right to dissolve it directly) and brought the elections one year forward. Then PDS (successor of SED, the former East German communist party) joined forces with WASG (a new party of social-democrats frustrated with the welfare cuts) to form "The Left", led by former PDS head Gregor Gysi and former SPD politician Oskar Lafontaine (who resigned from all political offices three years ago because he disagreed with Schröder). In the polls, the Left is taking away votes from the social-democrats, and a few from the christian-democrats, too. In the end, it might be the Left's fault that we get a coalition of the two big parties SPD and CDU, because neither SPD-Greens nor CDU-FDP will have a majority as a coalition. In one constituency (out of 299), one of the candidates died recently. That's why this constituency (the southern half of Dresden) will have to vote two weeks later than the rest of the country. Some parties are preparing to sue the Federal Election Supervisor if the results of the other 298 constituencies are published before Dresden I has voted. And the rest of the country wonders whether it is possible and necessary to keep the result secret for two weeks. Oh, and in my constituency, there's also a weird situation. Normally the SPD candidate (Elke Ferner) would have the best chances to win—also because no one knows the CDU candidate (Anette Hübinger). But now Oskar Lafontaine (who was Mayor of this city 1974-'85 and Premier of this state 1985-'98) is the candidate for The Left. His taking away votes from the SPD might lead to one more directly won seat for the CDU (see here for a short explanation of our "personified proportion vote" system). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_federal_election,_2005 By the way: If you're interested what a ballot looks like, here's a sample of the ballot for my constituency in PDF: http://www.wahlen.saarland.de/medien/inhal...hlkreis_296.pdf For those who understand German, here's the official tool that can help you decide which party to vote for. http://www.wahlomat.de/ The "Wahl-O-Mat" (elect-o-matic) is published by the Federal Center for Political Education. |
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| Mikitivity | Sep 14 2005, 03:33:15 PM Post #4 |
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Walking UN Archive
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I'm looking at the ballot, which is incredibly interesting. There are two sides, but you can vote for parties on the second side, right? Why is Lore Muller not on side one too? How do German ballots work and are they different in different states? And yes, I'm very weary of any party that labels itself "Christian" ... but she seemed to be getting some interesting press coverage. |
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Office of International Affairs, Confederated City States of Mikitivity Member: The International Democratic Union :: United Nations Organizations | |
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| Yuunli | Sep 14 2005, 05:20:30 PM Post #5 |
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Librarian's Dog
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Well, the Christian Democratic Union is one of the two major parties here, similar to the Tories in the UK or the Republicans in the US.
No, the principle is the same everywhere. But... See below. ;-) The ballot you can see above shows the "first vote" candidates for constituency #296, and the "second vote" party lists for the state of Saarland. Let me explain...
There are currently 299 constituencies, and Parliament has 598 seats. The constituencies all have about the same population. The candidate who receives most "first votes" (the black part on the left) in her/his constituency becomes a Member of Parliament. A simple majority is enough (e.g. 40% vs. 30% vs. 30%). That's how 299 of the 598 seats (exactly 50%) are elected. With the "second vote" (the blue part on the right), you choose a political party, not a person. The proportion of seats in parliament corresponds to the proportion of second votes. If a party wins 80 constituencies (from the first votes) and gets 20% of the second votes, it will get about 120 seats in parliament (20%). These 120 seats will be the 80 directly elected MPs plus 40 people from the party's list. Every party has such a list. If a person is high on a list, s/he needn't win a constituency. One such case is the premier of my state (Peter Müller, CDU). He doesn't candidate in any constituency, but he has a secure party list place. If another party wins 70 constituencies, but only gets 10% of the second votes, things become more complicated. The 70 people who won a constituency have a guaranteed seat in parliament. But since the party only deserves about 60 seats (10%), it won't get any additional MPs from its list. This surplus of seats (compared to the proportion) become the party's "overhang mandates", which finally lead to Parliament having more than 598 seats. I hope that was comprehensible. Because in reality it's even more complicated. ;-) First, there's the "5% obstacle". A party with less than 5% of the second votes won't enter parliament unless it won three constituencies. Germany consists of 16 states. The lists I mentioned are not nationwide, but only statewide. Though the implications are very different from the American system. Say a party gets lots of votes in Bavaria and Saxony, but virtually none in the others, and it wins 10 constituencies. Assume this party gets a total of 10% nationwide. Then the party will have 10% of the seats in parliament. 10% is about 60 seats. 10 MPs have won their seats directly, the other 50 come from the party's lists. But which list? The answer is simple: Bavaria and Saxony because those were the states where the party was strongest. Candidates from other state's lists will be ignored then. Let's have another example, because I don't think this was comprehensible. ![]() Second Vote Results: SPD 33%, CDU 30%, Left 10%, CSU 8%, Greens 7%, FDP 7%, NPD 3%, other parties 2% CSU is the Bavarian branch of CDU, so those votes come from one state only. Assume The Left's has strong support in the eastern states, a bit in NRW and Saarland, virtually nothing in the other states. Assume further that the Greens and the FDP are virtually insignificant in the east. First Vote Results: CDU 190, SPD 60 constituencies, CSU 40 constituencies (all of Bavaria except for Munich), Left 9 constituencies Analyzing the second votes: NPD and the other parties all have less than 5%, so they don't count. We would then have the following number of seats: SPD 208, CDU 189, Left 63, CSU 50, Greens 44, FDP 44 (total: 598) Overhang mandates: The CDU has won 190 constituencies, but they only deserve 189 seats. So their 190th will be an overhang mandate. Revised number of seats: SPD 208, CDU 190, Left 63, CSU 50, Greens 44, FDP 44 (total: 599) Members of Parliament: All first vote winners plus party list candidates: SPD 60+148, CDU 190+0, Left 9+54, CSU 40+10, Greens 0+44, FDP 0+44 State party lists: SPD: Assuming they have about the same proportion in all states, the 148 seats will be divided among the 16 state lists following their sizes. So, in addition to the 60 directly won constituencies, we will have about 30 social-democratic MPs from NRW, 20 from BaWü, 2 from Saarland etc. CDU: They already have more than they deserve. No state party list seats for them. Left: With the assumptions above, the would get about 2/3 of their seats from the eastern states and 1/3 from NRW, because NRW has about as many inhabitants as all eastern states combined. CSU: 40 directly elected MPs, 10 from the Bavarian state list. Greens and FDP: 44 candidates from western state lists. Maybe 12 MPs from NRW, 4 from Hessen, 2 from Hamburg. |
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| Lawtonia | Sep 15 2005, 04:18:29 AM Post #6 |
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The Enlightened Jadawin
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Unfortunately here in Australia we are polarised between the Liberal Party (conservative, right wing) and the Labour Party (Liberal Leftish workers party). The Bad news is that our Prime Minister John C**T Howard has a majority in both houses of parliament and will push any crappy legislation through that will enable him to get the chance to kiss Bush's arse again. We have compulsory voting so unfortunately the stupid people get fooled by the campaign advertisements all too easily. :angry: |
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The Enlightened Jadawin Speaker for the People of The Free Land of Lawtonia | |
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| Baranxtu | Sep 15 2005, 11:51:53 AM Post #7 |
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Wiki Bar Bunny
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Well, to be more exact, if a party does neither get 5% of the second votes, or wins less than 3 contituencies, those who were elected still can enter parliament. However, they are then classified as independents and do not have the same rights that the other parties, in the parliament called Fraktionen, have. This was the case with the PDS during the last elections, when they only got 2 seats. The two MPs still were in parliament, but officially not as members of a PDS Fraktion, but as indendents. And about the actual topic... I am not allowed to vote, unfortunately (still foreign citizen and I won't turn 18 until next Saturday :rolleyes: ), but I'm crossing my fingers for SPD and the Greens. I am not too happy with their style of governing, but it's a hell of a lot better than the shit the CDU/CSU would probably pull off. Because with 'em governing the country, I can probably postpone my dreams to marry in Germany indefinitely *eyeroll-from-hell-and-beyond*. The only bright side of elections (cause I don't like pessimistic outlooks into the future) are the ridiculous tv ads for the parties... I mean, okay, the ads for the major parties are bland and boring. But those of the minor parties are fucking hilarious. |
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In the Name of The Peoples of Baranxtu, Cikoutimi and Otea, United in Peace --- The Man Behind the "Legend" | |
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| Yuunli | Sep 15 2005, 12:02:51 PM Post #8 |
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Librarian's Dog
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Really? What do they show? I don't watch much TV, so I haven't seen one yet. Besides, I zap away or go to the toilet during the commercial break.
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| Baranxtu | Sep 15 2005, 12:11:20 PM Post #9 |
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Wiki Bar Bunny
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There's one by the Partei Bibeltreuer Christen (however, I saw it a few years ago)... it was all in the style of "by the power of Jesus Christ I compell thee to listen to us blabber/God loves us all but you'll go to hell if you don't vote for us". And something about Abortion-Is-Eeeeeevil, too, I think. Then, also a while ago, I saw a spot by the, uh, dunno, car driver's party or something. With the expected "Poor car drivers are harassed by the current politics!"-shtick. A little bit more on the actual-threat-to-stability-of-politics side, but still hilarious if you have the kind of jaded, sarcastic and cynic humor as I do is the spot by the NPD. Unfortunately *I* didn't see it, but my mother did and described it to me in detail: dark clouds on the horizon, aryan people with children, wolfs howling, all to Wagner's valkyrian music. Which is especially funny to me, because I always associate the valkyries with (pardon my french) dykes who couldn't care less for the spreading of the chosen race *massive-eyeroll-that-cannot-be-expressed-by-any-emoticon* |
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In the Name of The Peoples of Baranxtu, Cikoutimi and Otea, United in Peace --- The Man Behind the "Legend" | |
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| Groot Gouda | Sep 15 2005, 03:14:16 PM Post #10 |
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Back from never really being gone
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What an impressive election system... Over here, it's quite simple: there's a big voting machine that lists all parties and all candidates. You press the button of your favourite candidate, press the red button, and you're done. There are plenty parties to choose from, and there's no 5% obstacle: all you need is 1/150th of the votes to get 1 of the 150 seats. The seats are distributed proportionally to the number of votes per party. Who gets in the seats depends on the "preference votes". Most people will vote for the number 1 on the list, but often other candidates are popular enough to go from an unelectable position into parliament. If it doesn't add up exactly, the remaining seats are given to the party or combination of parties who have the most "left-over votes". In the Netherlands, we get the following parties: CDA - christian democrats, right-wing conservative but tend to go with the left parties on humanitarian and environmental issues. PvdA - labour. VVD - liberals, conservative. SP - socialist party. very popular because they are very active outside parliament GroenLinks (GreenLeft) - the greens. (I'm a member of them). D66 - liberals(ish), middle to sometimes progressive(ish). main points are political reforms for more democracy and education. will go against their principles to stay in government. ChristenUnie - Small Christian party, more christian than the CDA. SGP - the *really* christian (protestant) party. women aren't allowed to be full member, which is why a judge recently ordered the state to stop their subsidies. Stable at 2 seats. LPF - what remains of Pim Fortuyn. Will be gone next elections probably. A few people have left their party and remain in parliament as independent members (it's the person that gets the seat, not the party!). Best known is Geert Wilders, who will probably win a few seats next year with his right-wing conservative party. In the elections there's double that participating, from Katholics and Hinduists to the Party for the Animals (nearly getting a seat!). Lots of choice, which I like. I wouldn't want to live in a country with a two-party system. |
| I aten't dead[pdata]http://z10.invisionfree.com/IDU/index.php?showtopic=1301[/pdata] | |
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| Baranxtu | Sep 15 2005, 03:25:56 PM Post #11 |
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Wiki Bar Bunny
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Now, that are really a lot of choices... But one question - when there are so many parties in parliament, how on earth do you get a functional government coalition over there!? I mean, Austria has problems keeping a coalition together with two parties :rolleyes: |
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In the Name of The Peoples of Baranxtu, Cikoutimi and Otea, United in Peace --- The Man Behind the "Legend" | |
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| Groot Gouda | Sep 15 2005, 04:05:53 PM Post #12 |
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Back from never really being gone
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Coalition forming is always an issue, but usually two or three parties are enough to get a workable majority. The current coalition is CDA-VVD-D66 with about 80 seats IIRC, after failing talks between CDA and PvdA (who'd have 86 seats together). So it functions quite well (except that the wrong parties are in power ), and there's plenty of choice. Although that is diminished somewhat because of tactical voting, for example supporting PvdA instead of the smaller SP or GroenLinks, because the PvdA has more chances to get into government.
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| I aten't dead[pdata]http://z10.invisionfree.com/IDU/index.php?showtopic=1301[/pdata] | |
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| Baranxtu | Sep 15 2005, 04:17:39 PM Post #13 |
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Wiki Bar Bunny
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Aw, poor Dutch Greens *patpat* (sorry, I juuuuust couldn't resist because I'm in silly mood again today). Well, no offense, but I think the German system is a little teeny-tiny bit, uh, better (not that I'm the big politics know-it-all, but I can act like that nonetheless). Because there, you can split your vote and support two parties, which can be a tactical thing to do. For example, almost all constituencies are won by the CDU/CSU or the SPD (last election, I think there was one for the Greens and two for the PDS). And people who'd normally vote for the greens then give their first vote to the SPD candidate, for example (which is especially a wise thing to do down here in Bavaria, where the CSU is, well frightenly powerful) so that there is a chance a politican who is more in their direction gets the constituency (which is comparable to why leftists in the US should still vote the Democrats). Then, they can give their second vote to whomever they like and thus boost their percentage.
:lol: I just discovered that. And that is so true on more than one level *hee* |
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In the Name of The Peoples of Baranxtu, Cikoutimi and Otea, United in Peace --- The Man Behind the "Legend" | |
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12:55 AM Jul 11